The China Thread

[mongers]

China having another go at stopping Philippines access to their grounded LST base on that reef, this time they're also demanding it be towed away.

Just to underline the absurdity of China's 'nine-dots line' claim, this is a decent looking map, all other country claims look reasonable, certainly solving by direct negations or by resolution in the international courts, but China's:

[Sheilbh]

Not really political but I found this really interesting - Pew doing research onto attitudes to religion/"religious" practices in China:
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2023/08/30/measuring-religion-in-china/

[The Minsky Moment]

Just to underline the absurdity of China's 'nine-dots line' claim, this is a decent looking map, all other country claims look reasonable, certainly solving by direct negations or by resolution in the international courts, but China's:

It can't help Brunei's tourist business that sunbathers risk crossing into Chinese territory if they wade out into the water.

[Josquius]

Anyone ever read anything about china's daft claims from a more China sympathetic viewpoint?
An actual examination I mean. Not just "mwa wa wa west was bad to China in the 19th century and now we strong and Chinese sailors have always gone there so there!"
As it really seems to be just such a blatant piss take. And it's curious it's only in this very specific area. Their nonsense is more standard in other seas.

[HVC]

China real estate collapse back on? Another big developer, Country Garden, announced a 6.7 billion loss for the first half of the year.

[crazy canuck]

China real estate collapse back on? Another big developer, Country Garden, announced a 6.7 billion loss for the first half of the year.

I don't think it was ever off.  This is just a continuation of the problem.

[Valmy]

Isn't this rather similar to what happened in Japan? I seem to recall a massive real-estate bubble being a key part of their problems in 1995.

[Jacob]

Isn't this rather similar to what happened in Japan? I seem to recall a massive real-estate bubble being a key part of their problems in 1995.

I think there are partial parallels to most of the major economic crises in the last many decades, making prediction by comparison a bit tricky.

[Josquius]

Yeah, there's similarities to Japan but it is quite a different situation.
In Japan it was land speculation and speculation on mad theme park businesses and that sort of thing actually becoming profitable.
Actual property has very little value in Japan.

In China it is squarely about property. About owning raw numbers of competed flats with zero intention of using them and the only idea about turning a profit being that real estate always goes up.

In Japan it was a far more natural consequence of the over heated economy.
In China it's just where the limited freedom to do much else with your money and cultural weirdness has got them.

[Jacob]

Another dimension to the property boom in China is that for the longest time, buying real estate was practically the only / safest way to invest money for the average Chinese person.

On top of that school districts are fundamental to life success for your children - you go to school in your district, but better elementary schools feed to better high schools which increases the chance of better university placements (or placements at all). So the average Chinese person would see significant real value in owning property in an area with better schools than where they're coming from.

[Zanza]

Read a report in NZZ on the Chinese real estate crisis. Some crazy numbers there. 90 million empty appartments, another 230 million square meters under construction.  Some older investments had to be written down by 2/3 already. 70% of all private savings invested in real estate. When that bubble bursts, it will be the greatest crash of all times.

[mongers]

Read a report in NZZ on the Chinese real estate crisis. Some crazy numbers there. 90 million empty appartments, another 230 million square meters under construction.  Some older investments had to be written down by 2/3 already. 70% of all private savings invested in real estate. When that bubble bursts, it will be the greatest crash of all times.

Yeah and just think of all that wasted concrete and the CO2 emissions produced in the construction.

[HVC]

It's not only in China. Chinese firm built a multi billion ghost town in Malaysia too with the sultans backing.

[Sheilbh]

I think I've mentioned it before but the Economist podcast on China, Drum Tower, is worth a listen. The lastest episode is really interesting, on the Third Front including reporter visiting Panzhihua which is one of the cities built at that itime.

[Jacob]

Can you give an executive summary?