Climate Change/Mass Extinction Megathread

[Syt]

[viper37]

[Jacob]

Has any of you come across any credible writing on the potential impact from the heatwave on crops? Are we looking at droughts and potential food scarcity next year because of this?

[mongers]

Has any of you come across any credible writing on the potential impact from the heatwave on crops? Are we looking at droughts and potential food scarcity next year because of this?

I've not looked, though common sense suggest it'll be important, and not just the heatwaves, the flooding/storms/cyclones are trashing established agricultural practices across Asia, I know the recent flooding in Indian has hit rice farmers amongst others very badly.

[Jacob]

So we are probably looking at both famines in more vulnerable countries and increased food insecurity in the West in the next few years.

[Tonitrus]

Has any of you come across any credible writing on the potential impact from the heatwave on crops? Are we looking at droughts and potential food scarcity next year because of this?

Not so much the current heatwave, but 90% of Georgia's peach crop was wiped out by weather.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/15/business/georgia-peach-shortage/index.html

[mongers]

So we are probably looking at both famines in more vulnerable countries and increased food insecurity in the West in the next few years.

Yes we had that to some degree at the start of Covid, but just like PPE and vaccines, Western countries can just buy their way out of trouble.

Though that doesn't stopp poorer Westerners from having to cope with high food inflation and more importantly it constains food supplies in the 3rd world still further.

Also I have a feeling that, just like with the 1.5C being upon us already, food insecurity in the West will take hold very rapidly.

[Valmy]

I'm not a fan of the constant demoralization some engage in but I understand the deep spiritual need it fulfills.

Well it is part of our Christian heritage. It also neatly has an apocalyptical element.

[Jacob]

Yes we had that to some degree at the start of Covid, but just like PPE and vaccines, Western countries can just buy their way out of trouble.

Though that doesn't stopp poorer Westerners from having to cope with high food inflation and more importantly it constains food supplies in the 3rd world still further.

Also I have a feeling that, just like with the 1.5C being upon us already, food insecurity in the West will take hold very rapidly.

Yeah. We already have a cost of living crisis. A (further) increase in the cost of food is only going to make it worse.

[viper37]

Has any of you come across any credible writing on the potential impact from the heatwave on crops? Are we looking at droughts and potential food scarcity next year because of this?

Depends where.

China has been buying a lot of lands everywhere in the world, including in the West, especially in places where you wouldn't think right now it's the best place to cultivate something.  50 years from now, it could be something else.

Once our own farms can't produce enough crops to feed ourselves and we need push a little further up north to get a proper climate, we'll hit some great wall.

[crazy canuck]

Has any of you come across any credible writing on the potential impact from the heatwave on crops? Are we looking at droughts and potential food scarcity next year because of this?

That was being considered about a decade ago - but all those bets are now off.  Remember when people thought that the arable areas would just shift North, well all that went out the window when it was realized the North is warming considerably faster.  Mitigation of the effects of climate change are expensive everywhere, but particularly in the North. 

[Jacob]

Somewhat concerning:

Measurements made on subglacial sediment from the Camp Century ice core in northwestern Greenland show that the location was ice free during the interglacial that occurred around 400,000 years ago. Christ et al. used luminescence dating and cosmogenic nuclide data to show that the sediment was deposited under ice-free conditions after having been exposed at the surface to sunlight fewer than 16,000 years earlier. The absence of ice at that location means that the Greenland Ice Sheet must have contributed more than 1.4 meters of sea-level equivalent to the high sea-level stand, when the average global air temperature was similar to what we will soon experience because of human-caused climate warming. —H. Jesse Smith

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ade4248

... if the study's conclusions are correct, it means we could see higher increases in sea levels sooner than most current models predict.

[Razgovory]

Well, it's good news that Christ is working on this.

[Sheilbh]

Couple of bits from the FT Data team first on Arizona - and they note Phoenix is America's fastest growing city:

John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW: 85 people in Arizona suffered severe burns from contact with pavements heated up to 180F (82C). 7 of them died. In total, 257 people had underlying cause of death listed as "exposure to excessive natural heat".

This is not a forecast for 50 years time, it's happening today.

And secondly the shift of temperatures in cities round the world:

[mongers]

Couple of bits from the FT Data team first on Arizona - and they note Phoenix is America's fastest growing city:

John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW: 85 people in Arizona suffered severe burns from contact with pavements heated up to 180F (82C). 7 of them died. In total, 257 people had underlying cause of death listed as "exposure to excessive natural heat".

This is not a forecast for 50 years time, it's happening today.

And secondly the shift of temperatures in cities round the world:

Let nature rip in them, well at least stop trying to make every other city street just a sterile concrete drain for cars and commuters.