Finnish parliamentary elections

[Jacob]

I assume Marin's government continues as a caretaker government until then?

Normally I'd expect a caretake government to refrain from making big decisions, but presumably if there's strong cross-party support they can still make substantial decisions to support Ukraine... or is that incorrect?

[Solmyr]

I assume Marin's government continues as a caretaker government until then?

Normally I'd expect a caretake government to refrain from making big decisions, but presumably if there's strong cross-party support they can still make substantial decisions to support Ukraine... or is that incorrect?

They will continue until then, yes. Not sure what kind of decisions they will take, but I would guess if there's something Finland can do to aid Ukraine, it will be done.

[Jacob]

Thanks

[Solmyr]

Sanna Marin has just announced this morning that she will be stepping down from the leadership of the Social Democrats in September (when the party has its convention). Understandable, since she's had to deal with the covid pandemic and the Ukraine war during her term, as well as an unprecedented level of hateful shit from the right mostly because of being a young woman. She also said she won't be seeking any potential ministerial positions. She'll remain a regular MP, of course.

Might be tactical related to the government negotiations. Of course, she might still go for an EU job later. Some have even proposed her as Sec Gen of NATO. Finland will also have presidential elections next January and she is a popular choice in the polls.

[celedhring]

Most PMs usually ride into the sunset after losing an election (unless they're Italian  ). Sanna being so young, though, makes her future pretty intriguing.

[Solmyr]

Ok, she also said no to the presidential elections, so either some international job later on or really just chilling out.

[Solmyr]

So today Petteri Orpo of the National Coalition Party announced that he will try to negotiate forming a government together with The Finns, Christian Democrats, and Swedish People's Party. In other words, right-wing conservative government that includes far-right nationalists. 

[Threviel]

Welcome to the club

[Josquius]

Putin likes this?

[Jacob]

So today Petteri Orpo of the National Coalition Party announced that he will try to negotiate forming a government together with The Finns, Christian Democrats, and Swedish People's Party. In other words, right-wing conservative government that includes far-right nationalists. 

If they reach an agreement, how many mandates will they have (and what's the minimum number required)?

[Solmyr]

Putin likes this?

Rather uniquely for most of Europe, the Finnish far-right nationalists are mostly anti-Russia (even though there've been some uncertainty), so there's that at least.

[Solmyr]

So today Petteri Orpo of the National Coalition Party announced that he will try to negotiate forming a government together with The Finns, Christian Democrats, and Swedish People's Party. In other words, right-wing conservative government that includes far-right nationalists. 

If they reach an agreement, how many mandates will they have (and what's the minimum number required)?

National Coalition with 48, The Finns with 46, Swedish PP with 9, Christian Democrats with 5. So 107 seats in total, out of 200. One of the big parties will almost certainly get the the non-voting chairmanship, so that's one vote less. 106 out of 200 is a very thin majority, and the reason they needed the Swedish party (which is generally more liberal). There are some very big ideological differences here, too. For example, the National Coalition is very pro-EU and pro-work immigration, and also has increasingly come out for green energy (as the big business is supporting it). The Finns are against all immigration and green energy, and want to leave the EU. Likewise the Swedish party want to maintain the status of Swedish as an official second language being taught in schools, while the Finns want to abolish it and consider only Finnish speakers to be "real Finns". And the Finns' electorate is generally very hardline about ideological subjects, so there may not be much space for them to negotiate without being seen as "betraying" their voters. We'll see what they manage to agree on.

Stuff here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Finnish_parliamentary_election

[Sheilbh]

Rather uniquely for most of Europe, the Finnish far-right nationalists are mostly anti-Russia (even though there've been some uncertainty), so there's that at least.

Also Italy. The FdI are far more anti-Russia/Atlanticist than Berlusconi or M5S. Indeed Meloni did an annoyingly good speech criticising a (I think M5S) deputy who was talking about peace that went sort of viral. It was good, but also, no....

Edit: Is there any party with that sort of softer attitude to Russia - maybe legacy Kekkonenism - or is that just gone from Finnish politics?

[Josquius]

The Finns are against all immigration and green energy, and want to leave the EU

One of these things is not like the others.
Nutty how that always happens.

I wonder how this is playing for the Swedes helping to prop up fascists who want to see them ethnically cleansed...
The Finns of course I expect see no issues with biding their time on that minority?

[Solmyr]

Rather uniquely for most of Europe, the Finnish far-right nationalists are mostly anti-Russia (even though there've been some uncertainty), so there's that at least.

Also Italy. The FdI are far more anti-Russia/Atlanticist than Berlusconi or M5S. Indeed Meloni did an annoyingly good speech criticising a (I think M5S) deputy who was talking about peace that went sort of viral. It was good, but also, no....

Edit: Is there any party with that sort of softer attitude to Russia - maybe legacy Kekkonenism - or is that just gone from Finnish politics?

Not really in mainstream politics anymore, and especially after the past year. There are some fringe putinist loonies, but none of them are in the parliament (Ano Turtiainen, the last guy in this poll, has been voted out). And some maybe try to "understand" Russian politics and viewpoints, but not really approving of them or anything.