Finnish parliamentary elections

[Solmyr]

It is a weird thing when your party gains seats and support and yet loses the election anyway.

Welcome to multi-party system.

[Valmy]

Yeah but in the English language media the headlines are something like "Finns oust PM Marin" suggesting she and her party were rejected by voters. The nuance is hard to sum up in snappy headlines and political narratives.

[Solmyr]

So long as the winners of this election also like NATO and hate Russia I am good.

Pretty much all the parties in parliament are pro-NATO these days, except a few fringe members of the Left Alliance and Ano Turtiainen (the last guy in the poll), who just got voted out.

[Solmyr]

Yeah but in the English language media the headlines are something like "Finns oust PM Marin" suggesting she and her party were rejected by voters. The nuance is hard to sum up in snappy headlines and political narratives.

Yeah, I think "oust" is a bit of a wrong word here, since she remains very popular and got the second most votes of all the candidates. If the Social Democrats are in the next government, she'll likely be a minister. There's also talk about her going to some EU position, since she's established good international contacts.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah, I think "oust" is a bit of a wrong word here, since she remains very popular and got the second most votes of all the candidates. If the Social Democrats are in the next government, she'll likely be a minister. There's also talk about her going to some EU position, since she's established good international contacts.

And the flipside is sometimes true too - where it can be almost tough to get rid of a less popular leader. I always think of Mark Rutte who I think has the lowest approval rating in the EU. But can get a decent return just from his party's core vote and is really good at coalition politics

I think she'd be a shoo-in for an EU role if she wanted it.

[Maladict]

And the flipside is sometimes true too - where it can be almost tough to get rid of a less popular leader. I always think of Mark Rutte who I think has the lowest approval rating in the EU. But can get a decent return just from his party's core vote and is really good at coalition politics

Teflon Mark is  rather special case. The weirdest thing is that in over the decade he's been PM the other parties have not managed to produce one credible leader to compete for the premiership. I blame calvinism 

[Barrister]

And the flipside is sometimes true too - where it can be almost tough to get rid of a less popular leader. I always think of Mark Rutte who I think has the lowest approval rating in the EU. But can get a decent return just from his party's core vote and is really good at coalition politics

Teflon Mark is  rather special case. The weirdest thing is that in over the decade he's been PM the other parties have not managed to produce one credible leader to compete for the premiership. I blame calvinism 

Sounds like Justin Trudeau.

I don't think I've ever met of heard of a die-hard Justin fan - Trudeaumania is dead and buried in the 1960sa - yet he continues to survive and could quite possibly win the next election too, despite the Conservatives polling slightly ahead fo him.

[HVC]

The people helping Trudeau the most have been conservative leaders. Pick better representatives

[Sheilbh]

I blame calvinism 

My default assumption for explaining anything Dutch - it's either Calvinism or the Dutch instinct to raid the Thames

Teflon Mark is  rather special case. The weirdest thing is that in over the decade he's been PM the other parties have not managed to produce one credible leader to compete for the premiership.

I don't understand why it keeps happening because I swear that at the next election all of his coalition partners (except D66) have done horrendously bad Why is no-one learning this lesson?!

Also how does it work in the Netherlands for leaders - is it just party leader or something like a spitzenkandidat system?

[Maladict]

Teflon Mark is  rather special case. The weirdest thing is that in over the decade he's been PM the other parties have not managed to produce one credible leader to compete for the premiership.

I don't understand why it keeps happening because I swear that at the next election all of his coalition partners (except D66) have done horrendously bad Why is no-one learning this lesson?!

Junior coalition parties usually take more of a beating in the next election, they typically sacrificed more of their election promises. It's the price of power.   Some parties, CDA in particular, will jump on any chance to be in government, no matter the cost. It's some kind of weird sense of Christian stewardship.

Also how does it work in the Netherlands for leaders - is it just party leader or something like a spitzenkandidat system?

Yeah, Spitzenkandidat basically. First name on the ballot, often not the party leader.

[Razgovory]

There are 27 votes in this poll.  I didn't even know we had that many people left.

[viper37]

The people helping Trudeau the most have been conservative leaders. Pick better representatives

O'Toole wasn't so bad.

[Solmyr]

There are 27 votes in this poll.  I didn't even know we had that many people left.

All the Sanna fanboys came out to vote?

[Jacob]

O'Toole wasn't so bad.

Yeah, if the Conservatives hadn't ousted him he'd have a decent chance of winning next time around I think.

As for the topic on hand ...

Does anyone have any thoughts on what coalition configurations are most likely, and how long it'll take before they a government is agreed upon?

[Solmyr]

Probably going to be pretty intense and difficult, since the three big parties disagree on quite a few matters and the Social Democrats and The Finns have pretty much ruled out being in the same government. The Center Party has also indicated that it's going into the opposition this time (though they also said that after last elections and still joined the government).

The two main base combinations are National Coalition + Social Democrats + Greens + Swedish Party (badly divided on economy, with NC wanting large tax cuts and reduction of public sector and SD wanting to maintain welfare and social support, also Greens may not want to join the government after such a big loss); and National Coalition + The Finns + Christian Democrats + maybe Swedish Party (NC is pro-EU, pro-green energy and pro-immigration while TF is against those). Either way, the government will have a very slim majority in the parliament. The negotiations may well last until summer.