Predicotron: What will be the ultimate result of the Russo-Ukrainian War?

[FunkMonk]

Curious what the Languish Brain Trust has to say about the likeliest outcome of the war. Kept to just four main options to keep things simple but of course there are many variations that can be discussed in the thread. Would like to keep this thread on topic as to people's various predictions and the final outcome and keep general discussion about the war, nationalism, what to call alcoholic beverages and and city names and pronunciations, to the main war thread.

So everyone is on the same page, we are defining the Russo-Ukrainian War as starting in 2014 (the illegal annexation of Crimea) to its ultimate end result at some point in the future. The 2022 invasion is another phase in the conflict. In fact the Wikipedia article on the war also starts it in 2014 too so let's just go with that. So in some sense we are trying to figure out what the end result of the 2022 invasion will be and what the ultimate result of the entire conflict will be. Should be an easy lay-up of a question.

[Eddie Teach]

Did you mean to make control of all Ukraine an option?

[FunkMonk]

Did you mean to make control of all Ukraine an option?

I did and it seems I can't change the poll options. 

[crazy canuck]

unconscious bias

[crazy canuck]

Voted Ukrainian victory and return to pre-2014 boundaries.  But not before a very difficult occupation by Russia and after the current regime collapses.  It will be years, if not decades. 

[Josquius]

Between 1 and 2.
Russia will gain more but not enough to be remotely worth the cost for them.
But then even seizing crimea was an error which cost them so....

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

I did and it seems I can't change the poll options. 

Fixed it for you.  I can reset the votes if anyone wants a do-over.

[Threviel]

Russia annexing Crimea and DPR/LPR (or them "indendent") seems most likely right now and might be a stable solution.

If the Russians go for more I can see Ukraine winning this in a few years or decades.

[Barrister]

I find the idea of Russia retreating back to Crimea and DPR/LPR in exchange for Ukraine recognizing those losses as highly unlikely.  The biggest issue for Russia now is the sanctions.  I don't think that would be enough for the west to drop the sanctions.

My most likely guess is after months of horrific war the Russians level half of Kyiv and take the city.  Putin installs a puppet government that rules over the eastern half, with a rump Western Ukraine based out of L'viv.  No idea if Zelensky survives to make it to L'viv.  It's enough for Putin to declare victory, and the Russian military is in rough shape (as is the Ukrainian).  It them slows to a "frozen conflict" / low level insurgency.

[Legbiter]

I find the idea of Russia retreating back to Crimea and DPR/LPR in exchange for Ukraine recognizing those losses as highly unlikely.  The biggest issue for Russia now is the sanctions.  I don't think that would be enough for the west to drop the sanctions.

My most likely guess is after months of horrific war the Russians level half of Kyiv and take the city.  Putin installs a puppet government that rules over the eastern half, with a rump Western Ukraine based out of L'viv.  No idea if Zelensky survives to make it to L'viv.  It's enough for Putin to declare victory, and the Russian military is in rough shape (as is the Ukrainian).  It them slows to a "frozen conflict" / low level insurgency.

This. Any normalization with the West at this point would require Putin being gone, at a bare minimum.

[celedhring]

I think Russia will eventually take Kyiv, declare victory, and ocuppy roughly the eastern half of the country and the coasts, leaving the western half unoccupied. We'll get a frozen-ish conflict and from there I guess it will nearly impossible to maintain an occupation while the Russian economy crashes. So eventually Ukraine recovers its freedom, but it will take years.

[Admiral Yi]

I voted #2, but I think there is a chance of total Ukrainian victory.  Russia appears to be suffering significant losses of equipment, and if that Ukrainian figure for Russian casualties is anywhere close to accurate, that's a good chunk of the invasion force.  Whereas we, the West, have the productive capacity to supply Ukraine with virtually endless gear.  I think a coup to oust Putin is a non zero probability.

[PDH]

I have been surprised by a number of things in this war already, and at this point I would not be surprised to see a military collapse from Russia.  The cell phone ban that soldiers have is apparently not total (so some information is about for them), people back home are remembering the nightmare of conflicts like Afghanistan, and this is not 1941 where the Motherland is actually in danger - more like 1917-1918 when soldiers may well begin to realize this is shit.

I wouldn't bank on it, but I would not be surprised at this point.

[FunkMonk]

I did and it seems I can't change the poll options. 

Fixed it for you.  I can reset the votes if anyone wants a do-over.

Thanks! 

[The Brain]

I find it extremely hard to predict this. But if there is a quick peace (which I doubt) my guess is it will be Russia getting Ukraine to accept the loss of the Crimea and likely DPR/LRP. This with or without a regime change in Moscow.

Would any post-Putin regime in Moscow ever give up the Crimea?