Predicotron: What will be the ultimate result of the Russo-Ukrainian War?

[Admiral Yi]

The grown up thing to do with Crimea would be to conduct an internationally supervised referendum.

[The Larch]

The grown up thing to do with Crimea would be to conduct an internationally supervised referendum.

And who gets to vote? Current inhabitants? Pre-2014 ones?

[Admiral Yi]

I'm not aware of any significant population transfer after the annexation.

[The Larch]

I'm not aware of any significant population transfer after the annexation.

Last Ukranian census is from 2001, and it had Crimea + Sevastopol at 2.37 million people (60% Russians, 25% Ukranians), in 2014 Russia did a Census of its own that had 2.19 million people (68% Russians, 15% Ukranians).

[Barrister]

The grown up thing to do with Crimea would be to conduct an internationally supervised referendum.

Conducted by Russia?

And while I don't think there's been any forced population transfer, Russia has definitely encouraged investment in Crimea by it's citizens, and correspondingly I don't doubt that Ukrainian and Tatar sympathisers have fled.

[Jacob]

I find it extremely hard to predict this. But if there is a quick peace (which I doubt) my guess is it will be Russia getting Ukraine to accept the loss of the Crimea and likely DPR/LRP. This with or without a regime change in Moscow.

Would any post-Putin regime in Moscow ever give up the Crimea?

Depends on the nature of the regime and how it gained power, I'd think.

[Syt]

I find it extremely hard to predict this. But if there is a quick peace (which I doubt) my guess is it will be Russia getting Ukraine to accept the loss of the Crimea and likely DPR/LRP. This with or without a regime change in Moscow.

Would any post-Putin regime in Moscow ever give up the Crimea?

Depends on the nature of the regime and how it gained power, I'd think.

I mean if someone comes to power who decides that the problem was that Putin was too soft and not nationalist enough things could be rough.

[Josquius]

The grown up thing to do with Crimea would be to conduct an internationally supervised referendum.

It would have been.
And it likely would have voted to join Russia anyway, even if all was done completely fairly and with international observers.
Now however with the pro Ukranian segment of the population cleared out and a Russian regime installed this victory would be tainted.

From what I've heard the place where this hurts Ukraine is not so much in the loss of crimea itself but in the loss of much of their sea territory - territory with potentially significant fossil fuel reserves.

Also an interesting point on Russias take over of crimea is it swung the electoral calculus in Ukraine such that it would already swing far more western even if it didn't have new reason to hate Russia. There are pros and cons for both countries in having crimea.

[Barrister]

Also an interesting point on Russias take over of crimea is it swung the electoral calculus in Ukraine such that it would already swing far more western even if it didn't have new reason to hate Russia. There are pros and cons for both countries in having crimea.

Ukraine had a very strong pro-Russia fraction for the first 25 years of the country's life.  The first two Presidents (Kravchuk and Puchma) were ex-communists with no strong ideology (and besides this was during Yeltsin), but by 2004 and the Orange Revolution while the western-facing Yuschenko ultimately won, it was hard fought with the pro-Russian Yanukovuch.  And Yanukovych proceeded to win the next election - again on a pro-Russian message.

But then came the 2014 Maidan revolution, plus the seizure of Crimea and other territories.  As I understand it there is now no meaningful appetite for pro-Russian political parties in Ukraine.

[Sheilbh]

I have no idea - or too many. I think there's so many possibilities I'm not sure.

But if I had to guess now, I think a Ukrainian "win".

I think it's probably unlikely that includes Crimea and may not include DNR or LNR either. But I think their current territorial integrity is upheld, Russia ends up withdrawing and the freedom of Ukraine to apply for/join the EU or NATO becomes real.

[Berkut]

I think Ukraine wins and Putin gets couped.

[Josephus]

Yeah, there should be a Putin gets ousted option. That is a viable option. Otherwise I went with the stalemate. The west is not going to resestablish normal ties with a Putin led government unless there is a stalemate, at least. If Putin refuses that, I can see people inside the Kremlin look to oust him.

[mongers]

Why isn't there an explicvit 'WW3 happens' option?

Because that and possible nuclear war is at its biggest possibility in more than 40 years.

[Barrister]

Why isn't there an explicvit 'WW3 happens' option?

Because that and possible nuclear war is at its biggest possibility in more than 40 years.

40 years ago was 1982.  Definitely a higher risk of nuclear war then.  Do you recall in 1983 when the USSR shot down that Korean jetliner?  Plus Afghanistan had been invaded by the USSR, and Reagan was talking abou an "evil empire"?

[The Brain]

In the 80s even the rusty sardine can that was Whiskey On The Rocks carried nukes.