Poll
Question:
What shape will US-China tension take in the next several decades?
Option 1: "Oh shit, things just got real..." - aka World War style; a big, fat, destructive war.
votes: 2
Option 2: "Cold War" style - clear enmity, but no open conflict. Espionage, sabotage and even proxy wars, but not beyond that.
votes: 5
Option 3: "The Great Game" style - trying to take every advantage using every dirty trick, while pretending there is no conflict. Plenty of proxy conflicts, but none of them armed.
votes: 17
Option 4: "All about the money" - there's clear economic competition and some tension, but mostly it's just about doing business.
votes: 18
Option 5: "Special friendship" - tension will lessen, and the US and China will grow closer; like the EU and the US.
votes: 1
Option 6: Some other special option (like either or both of the countries will seize to be a significant power due to internal issues, or something else...)
votes: 2
Inspired by Seedy's most recent thread. How do you think US-China relations will go over the next several decades?
Its all about the money.
From Seedy's post
QuoteThe concept, however, aligns with Obama's broader effort to shift the U.S. military's focus toward Asia and provides a framework for preserving some of the Pentagon's most sophisticated weapons programs, many of which have strong backing in Congress.
ie, need a reason to keep that military industrial complex humming along.
All about the money, as long as China doesn't act like an ass about offshore territorial claims.
All about the money.
There are some territorial issues (Spratleys, Taiwan, Indian border), but they are fiarly limited and China has not shown to be broadly expansionist. China also does not seek to export its particular ideological model to other countries.
The US is almost always a little more likely to come into conflict with an authoritarian country than any given democratic country, so there is some risk of hostilities, but overall chances are pretty low.
I think all about the money as well, which is the status quo IMO.
I do wonder how the internal tension in China will play out...
I know how my internal tension usually plays out.
I'm voting Great Game. China is on shitty terms with pretty nearly all of its neighbours and is growing rapidly in power. It's all about the money now, but only because China still lags far behind the US in military might. This may change as relative power changes, which will increase tensions.
There is going to be a cold war of some kind, I think. China, like Russia, seems to suffer from zero moral dilemmas when it comes to wheeling and dealing with the filthiest filth the world has to offer. By doing that, they're one-upping US in getting access to countries (particularly in Africa, but also South America) that can prove to be strategically important for their rare resources.
Quote from: Malthus on August 02, 2012, 01:03:50 PM
I'm voting Great Game. China is on shitty terms with pretty nearly all of its neighbours and is growing rapidly in power. It's all about the money now, but only because China still lags far behind the US in military might. This may change as relative power changes, which will increase tensions.
Yeah, the ball is in China's court. If they get pushy with countries like Japan and Phillipines, we could have a great game, or maybe even a Cold War (less likely), and the Chinese will continue their gigantic espionage programme. Otherwise, it'll be a business relationship.
Quote from: Malthus on August 02, 2012, 01:03:50 PM
I'm voting Great Game. China is on shitty terms with pretty nearly all of its neighbours and is growing rapidly in power. It's all about the money now, but only because China still lags far behind the US in military might. This may change as relative power changes, which will increase tensions.
But China hasn't really shown any interest in wanting to dominate its neighbors. There are no particular foreign policy goals it is trying to influence (beyond access to markets and materials).
The US has no stomach to deal with China's extensive raping and pillaging of our intellectual property, their incessant attempts and intrusions into our power grid, our SCADA systems, our ICS networks...let alone fulfill our obligations to defend a little island that has become its own democracy, its own nation in every way but name.
It's not about the money: it's about cowardice, lack of intestinal fortitude, and balls.
This is not the nation that won World War II anymore.
Quote from: Barrister on August 02, 2012, 01:16:09 PM
Quote from: Malthus on August 02, 2012, 01:03:50 PM
I'm voting Great Game. China is on shitty terms with pretty nearly all of its neighbours and is growing rapidly in power. It's all about the money now, but only because China still lags far behind the US in military might. This may change as relative power changes, which will increase tensions.
But China hasn't really shown any interest in wanting to dominate its neighbors. There are no particular foreign policy goals it is trying to influence (beyond access to markets and materials).
And somewhat ambitious territorial waters claims (with attendant fishing and oil rights).
Somewhere between the 3rd & 4th options. Which apparently seems to be the sweet spot for the responses so far.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 02, 2012, 01:21:06 PM
The US has no stomach to deal with China's extensive raping and pillaging of our intellectual property, their incessant attempts and intrusions into our power grid, our SCADA systems, our ICS networks...let alone fulfill our obligations to defend a little island that has become its own democracy, its own nation in every way but name.
It's not about the money: it's about cowardice, lack of intestinal fortitude, and balls.
This is not the nation that won World War II anymore.
Stuxnet them then.
Quote from: Neil on August 02, 2012, 01:25:30 PM
Stuxnet them then.
Stuxnet won't save the Taiwanese people.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 02, 2012, 01:21:06 PM
This is not the nation that won World War II anymore.
It is nation that stayed out of WWII until one of the Axis countries finally did something we couldn't ignore. China will have to do something similar.
Quote from: Valmy on August 02, 2012, 01:37:32 PM
It is nation that stayed out of WWII until one of the Axis countries finally did something we couldn't ignore. China will have to do something similar.
Funny, I thought this nation's policy was never to allow another Pearl Harbor.
Well, guess what? We're on our way. And next time, it won't be battleships, so I suggest you stock up on the MREs and bottled water. You're going to be without power for several months, courtesy of the PLA.
I seize to be. :cool:
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 02, 2012, 01:51:14 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 02, 2012, 01:37:32 PM
It is nation that stayed out of WWII until one of the Axis countries finally did something we couldn't ignore. China will have to do something similar.
Funny, I thought this nation's policy was never to allow another Pearl Harbor.
Well, guess what? We're on our way. And next time, it won't be battleships, so I suggest you stock up on the MREs and bottled water. You're going to be without power for several months, courtesy of the PLA.
Are we talking about the same nation that simultaneously thought it was a good idea to put our citizens in internment camps and treat women like 2nd class citizens and black people worse than dogs?
Quote from: garbon on August 02, 2012, 01:52:26 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 02, 2012, 01:51:14 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 02, 2012, 01:37:32 PM
It is nation that stayed out of WWII until one of the Axis countries finally did something we couldn't ignore. China will have to do something similar.
Funny, I thought this nation's policy was never to allow another Pearl Harbor.
Well, guess what? We're on our way. And next time, it won't be battleships, so I suggest you stock up on the MREs and bottled water. You're going to be without power for several months, courtesy of the PLA.
Are we talking about the same nation that simultaneously thought it was a good idea to put our citizens in internment camps and treat women like 2nd class citizens and black people worse than dogs?
No. So there.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 02, 2012, 01:55:11 PM
Quote from: garbon on August 02, 2012, 01:52:26 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 02, 2012, 01:51:14 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 02, 2012, 01:37:32 PM
It is nation that stayed out of WWII until one of the Axis countries finally did something we couldn't ignore. China will have to do something similar.
Funny, I thought this nation's policy was never to allow another Pearl Harbor.
Well, guess what? We're on our way. And next time, it won't be battleships, so I suggest you stock up on the MREs and bottled water. You're going to be without power for several months, courtesy of the PLA.
Are we talking about the same nation that simultaneously thought it was a good idea to put our citizens in internment camps and treat women like 2nd class citizens and black people worse than dogs?
No. So there.
Haha. Sorry, doesn't work that way. :D
Quote from: garbon on August 02, 2012, 01:52:26 PM
Are we talking about the same nation that simultaneously thought it was a good idea to put our citizens in internment camps and treat women like 2nd class citizens and black people worse than dogs?
You just had to take your rhetoric too far on the last one, didn't you?
Quote from: Neil on August 02, 2012, 02:09:55 PM
Quote from: garbon on August 02, 2012, 01:52:26 PM
Are we talking about the same nation that simultaneously thought it was a good idea to put our citizens in internment camps and treat women like 2nd class citizens and black people worse than dogs?
You just had to take your rhetoric too far on the last one, didn't you?
Well I wasn't sure it seemed appropriate to lump the situation for women and African-Americans in the 50s as the same.
I don't think the CCP is going to be a permanent fixture in the world. Eventually it will die or morph into something else. The Chinese don't want a direct conflict with the US. Sure they like annoying us, but I don't think they will go far enough to really do something to make us mad. The Chinese aren't going to invade Taiwan. At least not by sea. Perhaps they will learn to walk walk there.
They do need to cut out their silly claims on other people's coasts, though.
In the end, I see them as trade rivals, but nor enemies.
China at the moment is on the crux of a critical point in its development. No longer is it the place to go for cheap mass labour. I've seen a bunch of different numbers, some claiming already its cheaper to build stuff in the west than China, others saying 4 years for the US, 5 years for Europe and 6 years for Japan (or maybe that was +1 onto all of those). What seems certain though is that China's rise is already slowing and unless it really shakes things up in the next few years its due to do a Japan.
So the future of China-US relations?
China doesn't have the money to try and compete militarily. Its all about business.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 02, 2012, 01:37:18 PM
Quote from: Neil on August 02, 2012, 01:25:30 PM
Stuxnet them then.
Stuxnet won't save the Taiwanese people.
too late to save the Taiwanese people; they already got the shaft from Chiang Kai-Shek.
Quote from: Malthus on August 02, 2012, 01:03:50 PM
I'm voting Great Game. China is on shitty terms with pretty nearly all of its neighbours and is growing rapidly in power. It's all about the money now, but only because China still lags far behind the US in military might. This may change as relative power changes, which will increase tensions.
China doesnt need to play the Great Game. Ownership of territory is no longer important. Access to resources is the key to power and the Chinese are going the corporate route to achieve it. I suppose it is a variant of "Its all about the money" and "The Great Game".
China is very actively helping African countries with cash and infrastructure, and gaining access to lots of resources in return.
Quote from: KRonn on August 02, 2012, 09:09:11 PM
China is very actively helping African countries with cash and infrastructure, and gaining access to lots of resources in return.
And they're figuring out what the Europeans, Americans and Soviets already found out ages ago: Africa is a money sink.
Hell, even the Africans are getting annoyed with the Chinese. That experiment won't last.
Heh, interesting points CDM.
All about money.
China has a lot of shit that needs to be sorted out on the homefront before #1 or #2 could happen.
Uh, did everyone just forget that the PRC will fall apart by 2030 anyway?
Voted WAR because war is fun. At least it is when you're on the right side of a missile gap. And they'll try to cross the staits when they begin to falter; we won't let them, because by that time people in my generation, who fucking hate the PRChinese for introducing the global economy to the concept of wage depression on the back of slave labor, will not permit it.
Quote from: Monoriu on August 02, 2012, 10:40:56 PM
All about money.
Nonsense. It's about face. If it was just about the money, you wouldn't see the Olympic program, the space program, or much of the saber-rattling.
It's 2012. Money can buy you a face.
It takes an awful lot of money to face-lift an entire country.
At any rate, the question is motivation. I don't think money is the motivation for the Chinese, so much as it is means to an end. Throughout history, China has thought itself the center of civilization. Until they were humbled by British cannon ships, they never even gave the matter a second thought. The current leadership is working to regain that status.
Quote from: Jacob on August 02, 2012, 12:33:19 PM
Inspired by Seedy's most recent thread. How do you think US-China relations will go over the next several decades?
Cold War.
Then WW3, possibly but not probably.
Quote from: Ideologue on August 02, 2012, 11:28:06 PM
Uh, did everyone just forget that the PRC will fall apart by 2030 anyway?
Voted WAR because war is fun. At least it is when you're on the right side of a missile gap. And they'll try to cross the staits when they begin to falter; we won't let them, because by that time people in my generation, who fucking hate the PRChinese for introducing the global economy to the concept of wage depression on the back of slave labor, will not permit it.
I haven't gotten to 2030, I'm still stuck at 2012. Anything of note happening?
Quote from: Siege on August 05, 2012, 02:48:20 AM
Quote from: Jacob on August 02, 2012, 12:33:19 PM
Inspired by Seedy's most recent thread. How do you think US-China relations will go over the next several decades?
Cold War.
Then WW3, possibly but not probably.
Which side will you be on?
Quote from: Razgovory on August 05, 2012, 02:54:09 AM
Quote from: Siege on August 05, 2012, 02:48:20 AM
Quote from: Jacob on August 02, 2012, 12:33:19 PM
Inspired by Seedy's most recent thread. How do you think US-China relations will go over the next several decades?
Cold War.
Then WW3, possibly but not probably.
Which side will you be on?
Fuck you.
Since you are a member of two armies, I think it's a legitimate question.
Quote from: Razgovory on August 05, 2012, 05:28:35 AM
Since you are a member of two armies,
And sells his gear to a 3rd.
QuoteHopefully Lettow's fate
:lol: I just noticed this. Damn, man.
Quote from: MadBurgerMaker on August 05, 2012, 06:13:46 AM
QuoteHopefully Lettow's fate
:lol: I just noticed this. Damn, man.
No one is safe in an avatar war against Ed. Not even chaste tea maidens. Squee! Mew! Saiko!
When the Revolution comes the chaste tea maidens will be the first against the wall. Well maybe the cosplayers will go first. Room after room of bloody toy cat ears. Squees of anguish echoing out of buildings with no windows. The horror, the horror...
Somewhere between Great Game and Cold War. Upcoming generations of Chinese leaders will be less cautious and more aggressive than leaders since Deng, a trend that's already begun.