China and the US in the Future?

[Jacob]

Inspired by Seedy's most recent thread. How do you think US-China relations will go over the next several decades?

[crazy canuck]

Its all about the money.

From Seedy's post

The concept, however, aligns with Obama's broader effort to shift the U.S. military's focus toward Asia and provides a framework for preserving some of the Pentagon's most sophisticated weapons programs, many of which have strong backing in Congress.

ie, need a reason to keep that military industrial complex humming along.

[Admiral Yi]

All about the money, as long as China doesn't act like an ass about offshore territorial claims.

[Barrister]

All about the money.

There are some territorial issues (Spratleys, Taiwan, Indian border), but they are fiarly limited and China has not shown to be broadly expansionist.  China also does not seek to export its particular ideological model to other countries.

The US is almost always a little more likely to come into conflict with an authoritarian country than any given democratic country, so there is some risk of hostilities, but overall chances are pretty low.

[Jacob]

I think all about the money as well, which is the status quo IMO.

I do wonder how the internal tension in China will play out...

[The Brain]

I know how my internal tension usually plays out.

[Malthus]

I'm voting Great Game. China is on shitty terms with pretty nearly all of its neighbours and is growing rapidly in power. It's all about the money now, but only because China still lags far behind the US in military might. This may change as relative power changes, which will increase tensions.

[DGuller]

There is going to be a cold war of some kind, I think.  China, like Russia, seems to suffer from zero moral dilemmas when it comes to wheeling and dealing with the filthiest filth the world has to offer.  By doing that, they're one-upping US in getting access to countries (particularly in Africa, but also South America) that can prove to be strategically important for their rare resources.

[Neil]

I'm voting Great Game. China is on shitty terms with pretty nearly all of its neighbours and is growing rapidly in power. It's all about the money now, but only because China still lags far behind the US in military might. This may change as relative power changes, which will increase tensions.

Yeah, the ball is in China's court.  If they get pushy with countries like Japan and Phillipines, we could have a great game, or maybe even a Cold War (less likely), and the Chinese will continue their gigantic espionage programme.  Otherwise, it'll be a business relationship.

[Barrister]

I'm voting Great Game. China is on shitty terms with pretty nearly all of its neighbours and is growing rapidly in power. It's all about the money now, but only because China still lags far behind the US in military might. This may change as relative power changes, which will increase tensions.

But China hasn't really shown any interest in wanting to dominate its neighbors.  There are no particular foreign policy goals it is trying to influence (beyond access to markets and materials).

[CountDeMoney]

The US has no stomach to deal with China's extensive raping and pillaging of our intellectual property, their incessant attempts and intrusions into our power grid, our SCADA systems, our ICS networks...let alone fulfill our obligations to defend a little island that has become its own democracy, its own nation in every way but name.

It's not about the money:  it's about cowardice, lack of intestinal fortitude, and balls.

This is not the nation that won World War II anymore. 

[Jacob]

I'm voting Great Game. China is on shitty terms with pretty nearly all of its neighbours and is growing rapidly in power. It's all about the money now, but only because China still lags far behind the US in military might. This may change as relative power changes, which will increase tensions.

But China hasn't really shown any interest in wanting to dominate its neighbors.  There are no particular foreign policy goals it is trying to influence (beyond access to markets and materials).

And somewhat ambitious territorial waters claims (with attendant fishing and oil rights).

[derspiess]

Somewhere between the 3rd & 4th options.  Which apparently seems to be the sweet spot for the responses so far.

[Neil]

The US has no stomach to deal with China's extensive raping and pillaging of our intellectual property, their incessant attempts and intrusions into our power grid, our SCADA systems, our ICS networks...let alone fulfill our obligations to defend a little island that has become its own democracy, its own nation in every way but name.

It's not about the money:  it's about cowardice, lack of intestinal fortitude, and balls.

This is not the nation that won World War II anymore.

Stuxnet them then.

[CountDeMoney]

Stuxnet them then.

Stuxnet won't save the Taiwanese people.