http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/worldview/why-the-coup-rumours-in-china-arent-going-away/article2376711/
http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/china-news/coup-in-beijing-says-chinese-internet-rumor-mill-207993.html
http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20120320000124&cid=1101
That could get messy real fast if true.
So I've been reading a bit in the Epoch Times (the Falun Gong newspaper :ph34r:). Seems they expect Zhou Yongkang to go down in pretty short order (unless, I assume, this coup thing is actually something).
Not surprising that there is a bit of instability in China after Kim Jong-un was assassinated there.
I haven't heard anything in HK. Everything is normal. Sounds like some internet rumour. This is a particularly sensitive year as there will be a scheduled leadership change. So I am not surprised if there are more rumours than usual.
I don't trust the Falun Gong newspaper. Every now and then they say that millions or so-and-so has left the party.
Yeah, the Epoch people do seem to end everything with some little bit about Falun Gong.
That said, they claim to have predicted the fall of Bo Xilai in early Feb:
http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/opinion/arrest-of-chongqing-s-top-cop-suggests-city-s-communist-party-leader-in-jeopardy-190016.html
They're also predicting that Zhou Yongkang is going to go down over this: http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/opinion/why-zhou-yongkang-is-doomed-to-follow-bo-xilai-207924-page-2.html
But yeah, the Epoch/ Falun Gong agenda is reasonably clear... but it's a pretty good source of English language analysis, it seems. I'd be happy to if you can point me at other sources.
Well, tons of people predicted Bo's fall after Wang's arrest. I haven't heard anybody talk about Zhou.
I am not familiar with the English sources, because I read the Chinese newspapers ;)
Quote from: Monoriu on March 22, 2012, 01:00:34 AM
because I read the Chinese newspapers ;)
Quote from: MonoriuEverything is normal. Sounds like some internet rumour.
The HK newspapers can be quite critical of the Beijing regime.
That's what they want you to think. :ph34r:
Someone care to give an exec summary on this?
One boring group of guys in suits may be supplanting another boring group of guys in suits, its very worrying :hmm:
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on March 22, 2012, 05:10:29 AM
One boring group of guys in suits may be supplanting another boring group of guys in suits, its very worrying :hmm:
One boring group of guys replacing another is much better than one guy ruling until his death.
I just read up a bit on Zhou Yongkang. He is 69, almost 70. He is due to step down this autumn anyway during the 18th Party Congress. The rule is, if you are 67 or older during a party congress, you need to step down.
Quote from: Monoriu on March 22, 2012, 05:24:34 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on March 22, 2012, 05:10:29 AM
One boring group of guys in suits may be supplanting another boring group of guys in suits, its very worrying :hmm:
One boring group of guys replacing another is much better than one guy ruling until his death.
Yes, they were a lot more memorable in the old days, but apart from that things have improved.
i hope it's a coup banana split. with lots of whipped cream and chocolate.
As long as I get my paychecks, I don't care if zombie Qin Shi Huang stages a coup and slaughters millions.
Quote from: Jacob on March 21, 2012, 11:46:21 PM
That could get messy real fast if true.
Is that necessarily a bad thing?
Quote from: derspiess on March 22, 2012, 08:44:44 AM
Quote from: Jacob on March 21, 2012, 11:46:21 PM
That could get messy real fast if true.
Is that necessarily a bad thing?
Unless you've got a job lined up for me, yes, it is. :mad:
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on March 22, 2012, 05:10:29 AM
One boring group of guys in suits may be supplanting another boring group of guys in suits, its very worrying :hmm:
Speaking of boring guys in suits, I heard on NPR that all Chinese lawyers are now required to swear allegiance to the Communist Party.
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on March 22, 2012, 09:16:37 AM
Unless you've got a job lined up for me, yes, it is. :mad:
Can you fix ATMs?
Quote from: Kleves on March 22, 2012, 09:32:23 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on March 22, 2012, 05:10:29 AM
One boring group of guys in suits may be supplanting another boring group of guys in suits, its very worrying :hmm:
Speaking of boring guys in suits, I heard on NPR that all Chinese lawyers are now required to swear allegiance to the Communist Party.
Yes I read that report too. Doesn't make any real difference. The party has total control over the courts.
Quote from: derspiess on March 22, 2012, 09:35:59 AM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on March 22, 2012, 09:16:37 AM
Unless you've got a job lined up for me, yes, it is. :mad:
Can you fix ATMs?
I've got a hammer. How much do you pay?
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on March 22, 2012, 10:13:36 AM
I've got a hammer. How much do you pay?
Do you hammer in the morning?
Quote from: Tamas on March 22, 2012, 04:58:52 AM
Someone care to give an exec summary on this?
The leadership transition that happens every ten years in China is coming up later in 2012.
Bo Xilai, until recently the party secretary (i.e. head honcho) of Chongqing, has just been arrested. Previously Bo was famous for roughly cracking down on organized crime (and legitimate businesses) and instituting various Maoist flavoured public displays (see Minsky's "Bo Knows Purge" thread from last week), and he was considered a leading contender for a place on the Politburo later this year. Not so anymore.
Recently, some shots were heard at night in the area where high party officials reside. Speculation and rumour followed suit, because real information is hard to come by. However, it's clear that Bo's former protegees are turning against him (Bo himself was by all accounts ready to throw his own guys under the bus when necessary, so it's not surprising they'd return the favour - the big thing was his former police chief Wang Lijun who sought refuge at the US consulate for a day last February).
It looks like a showdown, perhaps ideologically based, between reformers (Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, the outgoing leaders) and leftists, potentially including other outgoing Politburo members like the aforementioned Zhou Yongkang (the guy in charge of the courts, police, internal security, repressing Tibetans and other dissenters).
It's pretty hard to tell exactly what's going on. How ideologically motivated is it, and how much of it is purely political power plays as people jockey for position for the upcoming leadership transition? It's hard to say.
One thing that is pretty noticeable and interesting is the degree to which ordinary Chinese are able to follow and discuss this, especially using the net using metaphors and euphemisms, in spite of official censorship. People know what's going on, or at least what the rumours are, if they're interested.
Quote from: derspiess on March 22, 2012, 08:44:44 AM
Quote from: Jacob on March 21, 2012, 11:46:21 PM
That could get messy real fast if true.
Is that necessarily a bad thing?
Well for you it's probably not. You get to watch dramatic things and human suffering on TV and feel good that it doesn't involve you or people you know or care about. So if that's all you care about, then a mess in China is probably a good thing for you.
Geopolitically, I suppose it depends on whether you think it's likely that the US is well positioned to take advantage of a mess in China, how severe the impact is on the world (and US) economy and to what degree you expect the US itself might get sucked into or stick in a detrimental mess.
Quote from: Monoriu on March 22, 2012, 01:00:34 AM
Well, tons of people predicted Bo's fall after Wang's arrest. I haven't heard anybody talk about Zhou.
Well, now you have. It's the prediction of Epoch, so we'll see how accurate they are.
QuoteI am not familiar with the English sources, because I read the Chinese newspapers ;)
Makes sense.
So far the English language sources I've found lag behind the various Chinese sites my wife follows by a couple of days, miss a bit of context, generalize a bit too much or focus on mildly related human interest side stories. Epoch is the first English language news source I've found that has offered context and analysis that actually brought new information into the Jacob household. Like you, I'm extremely sceptical of Falun Gong, and I'm sure they have a destabilizing agenda (it's pretty obvious in the articles I linked) and that that colours their analyses; but it's nonetheless more substantial information than what's otherwise readily available to me.
Quote from: Jacob on March 22, 2012, 10:53:13 AM
Bo Xilai, until recently the party secretary (i.e. head honcho) of Chongqing, has just been arrested. Previously Bo was famous for roughly cracking down on organized crime (and legitimate businesses) and instituting various Maoist flavoured public displays (see Minsky's "Bo Knows Purge" thread from last week), and he was considered a leading contender for a place on the Politburo later this year. Not so anymore.
Some nitpick:
Bo hasn't been arrested. At least not officially. He *merely* lost his Chongqing job.
He is already a member of the politburo. There are two layers in the politburo. The larger, 25-member full body, and a smaller, 9-member standing committee. Standing committee members are much more powerful. "Ordinary" politburo members are usually party chiefs of important provinces or major cities. I think he hasn't lost his status as a politburo member after his removal from his Chongqing job. So he is now like a "minister without portfolio".
I've read that if Bo gets arrested or not will be an interesting sign. If he's arrested it suggests there are really serious ructions at the top. If not then perhaps not.
Quote from: Monoriu on March 22, 2012, 11:06:36 AMSome nitpick:
Bo hasn't been arrested. At least not officially. He *merely* lost his Chongqing job.
He is already a member of the politburo. There are two layers in the politburo. The larger, 25-member full body, and a smaller, 9-member standing committee. Standing committee members are much more powerful. "Ordinary" politburo members are usually party chiefs of important provinces or major cities. I think he hasn't lost his status as a politburo member after his removal from his Chongqing job. So he is now like a "minister without portfolio".
Right. Standing committee of the politburo. And not arrested, just not seen in public since his removal was announced.
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 22, 2012, 11:09:02 AM
I've read that if Bo gets arrested or not will be an interesting sign. If he's arrested it suggests there are really serious ructions at the top. If not then perhaps not.
Yeah pretty much.
Where did you read this?
Of the 9 current members of the standing committee, 7 are due to step down later this year because they are over 67. The two left will become party general-secretary and premier respectively (this was decided in the last party congress 5 years ago). So there are lots of places for grabs.
Quote from: Jacob on March 22, 2012, 10:57:16 AM
Well for you it's probably not. You get to watch dramatic things and human suffering on TV and feel good that it doesn't involve you or people you know or care about. So if that's all you care about, then a mess in China is probably a good thing for you.
Come on now, I don't enjoy watching human suffering. I'm just saying that with the Chinese Communists being the bad guys, it might not be a bad thing to have bad guys fighting against bad guys.
QuoteGeopolitically, I suppose it depends on whether you think it's likely that the US is well positioned to take advantage of a mess in China, how severe the impact is on the world (and US) economy and to what degree you expect the US itself might get sucked into or stick in a detrimental mess.
I think there would be plenty of ways to profit from a big mess in China. And I don't see any likely scenarios where the US gets sucked into it, not directly anyway.
Quote from: Jacob on March 22, 2012, 11:14:58 AM
Yeah pretty much.
Where did you read this?
I think the Economist's new China blog:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/analects
Thanks Jacob!
Quote from: derspiess on March 22, 2012, 11:20:18 AMCome on now, I don't enjoy watching human suffering.
Good to hear :hug:
QuoteI'm just saying that with the Chinese Communists being the bad guys, it might not be a bad thing to have bad guys fighting against bad guys.
If that happens, millions of people (tens or hundreds) will have their lives destroyed. If it's just the upper and middle echelons of the party fucking each other over, then that's pretty good, but usually ordinary people are the ones to bear the brunt of any chaos.
QuoteI think there would be plenty of ways to profit from a big mess in China. And I don't see any likely scenarios where the US gets sucked into it, not directly anyway.
You see opportunities, not risks. Very entrepreneurial :bowler:
China has done a very good job of handling succession.
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on March 22, 2012, 09:16:37 AM
Quote from: derspiess on March 22, 2012, 08:44:44 AM
Quote from: Jacob on March 21, 2012, 11:46:21 PM
That could get messy real fast if true.
Is that necessarily a bad thing?
Unless you've got a job lined up for me, yes, it is. :mad:
I have a hard time feeling bad for you. You're teaching Chinese people how to become spies and cybercriminals. You're a bad person.
Quote from: Neil on March 22, 2012, 12:22:53 PMI have a hard time feeling bad for you. You're teaching Chinese people how to become spies and cybercriminals. You're a bad person.
You have a hard time feeling bad for anyone, except possibly dreadnought captains.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 22, 2012, 12:02:40 PM
China has done a very good job of handling succession.
This could be taken at face value or facetiously; I'm not sure which is meant.
The Zhao-Jiang succession was not particularly smooth. The Jiang-Hu succession went smoothly from the perception of the outside world but there may have been a lot of infighting behind the scenes. The present turnover is already looking a bit on the rocky side. I also would question whether any method of government succession that systematically eliminates the input of the governed can be called "good" in any meaningful sense.
Welf?
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 22, 2012, 01:42:56 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 22, 2012, 12:02:40 PM
China has done a very good job of handling succession.
This could be taken at face value or facetiously; I'm not sure which is meant.
The Zhao-Jiang succession was not particularly smooth. The Jiang-Hu succession went smoothly from the perception of the outside world but there may have been a lot of infighting behind the scenes. The present turnover is already looking a bit on the rocky side. I also would question whether any method of government succession that systematically eliminates the input of the governed can be called "good" in any meaningful sense.
Smoother then the Soviet method.
Both smoother than any other one party state has managed and smoother than the previous Chinese system.
Quote from: derspiess on March 22, 2012, 11:20:18 AM
Quote from: Jacob on March 22, 2012, 10:57:16 AM
Well for you it's probably not. You get to watch dramatic things and human suffering on TV and feel good that it doesn't involve you or people you know or care about. So if that's all you care about, then a mess in China is probably a good thing for you.
Come on now, I don't enjoy watching human suffering.
I do. I want ALL muslims DEAD!!!!!!111111oneoneone
How do you like that, Jacob?
How does your bleeding heart feel about about my deep hatred for Islam???
It doesn't require a bleeding heart to be repulsed by demands for genocide. In fact, what makes you different then those who want all Jews dead?
Quote from: Jacob on March 22, 2012, 12:45:26 PM
Quote from: Neil on March 22, 2012, 12:22:53 PMI have a hard time feeling bad for you. You're teaching Chinese people how to become spies and cybercriminals. You're a bad person.
You have a hard time feeling bad for anyone, except possibly dreadnought captains.
That's not true. What about Italian dreadnought captains?
Quote from: Razgovory on March 22, 2012, 08:14:38 PM
It doesn't require a bleeding heart to be repulsed by demands for genocide. In fact, what makes you different then those who want all Jews dead?
You can't be seriously equating jews with muslims.
How many planes have we flown into buildings, how many buses have we blown up, how many children and schools have we targeted?
You are a retard.
Quote from: Siege on March 22, 2012, 08:29:32 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on March 22, 2012, 08:14:38 PM
It doesn't require a bleeding heart to be repulsed by demands for genocide. In fact, what makes you different then those who want all Jews dead?
You can't be seriously equating jews with muslims.
How many planes have we flown into buildings, how many buses have we blown up, how many children and schools have we targeted?
You are a retard.
Enough. Ever heard of the King David Hotel? With one statement you say you want "all Muslims dead"(which presumably includes children, as there are Muslim children), and in the next ask how many children Jews have targeted.
Quote from: Siege on March 22, 2012, 08:29:32 PM
You can't be seriously equating jews with muslims.
How many planes have we flown into buildings, how many buses have we blown up, how many children and schools have we targeted?
You are a retard.
How many Swedish counts have the Muslims murdered? How many King David Hotels did they bomb?
Israel is reaping what it has sown.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 22, 2012, 02:46:38 PM
Both smoother than any other one party state has managed and smoother than the previous Chinese system.
It is because of Deng. When he appointed Jiang as his successor, he also appointed the successor to Jiang at the same time. That guy is Hu, the current president. Hu is about 10 years younger than Jiang. So in one stroke, he established the 10-year rule for each generation of leaders.
Hu's on first.
Quote from: Monoriu on March 22, 2012, 08:47:00 PM
It is because of Deng. When he appointed Jiang as his successor, he also appointed the successor to Jiang at the same time. That guy is Hu, the current president. Hu is about 10 years younger than Jiang. So in one stroke, he established the 10-year rule for each generation of leaders.
The midget knew his shit.
Hu's decision was it to lose the Mao jackets?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 22, 2012, 08:56:13 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 22, 2012, 08:47:00 PM
It is because of Deng. When he appointed Jiang as his successor, he also appointed the successor to Jiang at the same time. That guy is Hu, the current president. Hu is about 10 years younger than Jiang. So in one stroke, he established the 10-year rule for each generation of leaders.
The midget knew his shit.
Hu's decision was it to lose the Mao jackets?
They stopped wearing them after John Lennon was shot.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 22, 2012, 08:56:13 PM
The midget knew his shit.
Hu's decision was it to lose the Mao jackets?
Deng and his generation of leaders mostly wore those jackets. Jiang wore both Mao-style and suits. Hu mostly wears suits. But he still wears Mao-style, especially during military events/reviews, when he needs to appear as Chairman of the military commission.
Deng also set an important precedent in the way ousted leaders are treated. In the Mao era, they were killed. Deng overthrew Hua (Mao's appointed successor) to become paramount leader. Very importantly, Hua was not physically harmed and he retained his personal freedom. He even kept his ceremonial post in the party central committee for the next 20 years, until the 00s. The party always made sure that he received a 100% yes vote in central committee elections (in recognition of his coup that ended the cultural revolution).
The message is, it is ok to step down. No need to fight to the death over it.
Quote from: Siege on March 22, 2012, 08:29:32 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on March 22, 2012, 08:14:38 PM
It doesn't require a bleeding heart to be repulsed by demands for genocide. In fact, what makes you different then those who want all Jews dead?
You can't be seriously equating jews with muslims.
How many planes have we flown into buildings, how many buses have we blown up, how many children and schools have we targeted?
You are a retard.
Its not really my bag to go on about the evils of Israeli apartheid and other bollocks but.....There has been an awful lot of that sort of thing in Palestine.
Quote from: Monoriu on March 22, 2012, 09:17:59 PM
Deng also set an important precedent in the way ousted leaders are treated. In the Mao era, they were killed. Deng overthrew Hua (Mao's appointed successor) to become paramount leader. Very importantly, Hua was not physically harmed and he retained his personal freedom. He even kept his ceremonial post in the party central committee for the next 20 years, until the 00s. The party always made sure that he received a 100% yes vote in central committee elections (in recognition of his coup that ended the cultural revolution).
The message is, it is ok to step down. No need to fight to the death over it.
I have to admit. I admire Deng somewhat. He is probably the greatest Chinese statesman of the last century. I do admire pragmatism.
Quote from: Razgovory on March 22, 2012, 01:52:04 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 22, 2012, 01:42:56 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 22, 2012, 12:02:40 PM
China has done a very good job of handling succession.
This could be taken at face value or facetiously; I'm not sure which is meant.
The Zhao-Jiang succession was not particularly smooth. The Jiang-Hu succession went smoothly from the perception of the outside world but there may have been a lot of infighting behind the scenes. The present turnover is already looking a bit on the rocky side. I also would question whether any method of government succession that systematically eliminates the input of the governed can be called "good" in any meaningful sense.
Smoother then the Soviet method.
It also avoids the Brezhnev syndrome.
Quote from: Razgovory on March 22, 2012, 10:01:52 PM
I have to admit. I admire Deng somewhat. He is probably the greatest Chinese statesman of the last century. I do admire pragmatism.
You also know that he called the shots behind Tinanmen, right?
Quote from: Razgovory on March 22, 2012, 10:01:52 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 22, 2012, 09:17:59 PM
Deng also set an important precedent in the way ousted leaders are treated. In the Mao era, they were killed. Deng overthrew Hua (Mao's appointed successor) to become paramount leader. Very importantly, Hua was not physically harmed and he retained his personal freedom. He even kept his ceremonial post in the party central committee for the next 20 years, until the 00s. The party always made sure that he received a 100% yes vote in central committee elections (in recognition of his coup that ended the cultural revolution).
The message is, it is ok to step down. No need to fight to the death over it.
I have to admit. I admire Deng somewhat. He is probably the greatest Chinese statesman of the last century. I do admire pragmatism.
:yes:
It should be his face on the money, not Mao's.
QuoteYou also know that he called the shots behind Tinanmen, right?
Name one Chinese leader that never massacred anyone.
Quote from: Razgovory on March 22, 2012, 10:01:52 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 22, 2012, 09:17:59 PM
Deng also set an important precedent in the way ousted leaders are treated. In the Mao era, they were killed. Deng overthrew Hua (Mao's appointed successor) to become paramount leader. Very importantly, Hua was not physically harmed and he retained his personal freedom. He even kept his ceremonial post in the party central committee for the next 20 years, until the 00s. The party always made sure that he received a 100% yes vote in central committee elections (in recognition of his coup that ended the cultural revolution).
The message is, it is ok to step down. No need to fight to the death over it.
I have to admit. I admire Deng somewhat. He is probably the greatest Chinese statesman of the last century. I do admire pragmatism.
I laughed.
Quote from: Siege on March 22, 2012, 08:09:56 PMI do. I want ALL muslims DEAD!!!!!!111111oneoneone
How do you like that, Jacob?
How does your bleeding heart feel about about my deep hatred for Islam???
I don't really care, siegy. You're basically a joke.
Quote from: Monoriu on March 22, 2012, 10:34:34 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on March 22, 2012, 10:01:52 PM
I have to admit. I admire Deng somewhat. He is probably the greatest Chinese statesman of the last century. I do admire pragmatism.
You also know that he called the shots behind Tinanmen, right?
Yes. I stand by my statement. It was excessive, I'll admit. I'm not sure if a sudden shift to Democracy in 1989 would have been that good an idea though. Look at what happened to Russia. Chaos, poverty, civil war, gangsters and finally a return to despotism. I think Democracy is in China's best interest, but they should look at South Korea and Taiwan as models for transition. A gradual transfer to democracy rather then the sudden dismantling of government and a leap of faith.
Quote from: Siege on March 22, 2012, 10:39:18 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on March 22, 2012, 10:01:52 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 22, 2012, 09:17:59 PM
Deng also set an important precedent in the way ousted leaders are treated. In the Mao era, they were killed. Deng overthrew Hua (Mao's appointed successor) to become paramount leader. Very importantly, Hua was not physically harmed and he retained his personal freedom. He even kept his ceremonial post in the party central committee for the next 20 years, until the 00s. The party always made sure that he received a 100% yes vote in central committee elections (in recognition of his coup that ended the cultural revolution).
The message is, it is ok to step down. No need to fight to the death over it.
I have to admit. I admire Deng somewhat. He is probably the greatest Chinese statesman of the last century. I do admire pragmatism.
I laughed.
You don't know pragmatism. Killing a billion people isn't a pragmatic solution to your problems.
Quote from: Razgovory on March 22, 2012, 10:54:15 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 22, 2012, 10:34:34 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on March 22, 2012, 10:01:52 PM
I have to admit. I admire Deng somewhat. He is probably the greatest Chinese statesman of the last century. I do admire pragmatism.
You also know that he called the shots behind Tinanmen, right?
Yes. I stand by my statement. It was excessive, I'll admit. I'm not sure if a sudden shift to Democracy in 1989 would have been that good an idea though. Look at what happened to Russia. Chaos, poverty, civil war, gangsters and finally a return to despotism. I think Democracy is in China's best interest, but they should look at South Korea and Taiwan as models for transition. A gradual transfer to democracy rather then the sudden dismantling of government and a leap of faith.
You're an idiot.
Look at what happened in the rest of the communist block in 1989. I sure like the chances of a Chinese democracy in 1989.
If China takes a jump to democracy rather than a slow transition, it needs a charismatic leader to take it there to have any chance of making. The most recent charismatic leader on offer was a pseudo-Maoist with a penchant for blatantly disregarding the law even by CCP standards.
Personally, I think Japan, Taiwan and South Korea are good models for successful transitions to Democracy. Belarus, the Ukraine, Hungary etc, less so.
I don't think China has much chance of being annexed by West Germany. Most of the Eastern bloc had a stabilizing force in the form of the European Union and NATO. I don't think China has that. China isn't surrounded by friendly states. Most of the Eastern bloc states were also quite small, with small populations. This does not apply to China either. Lastly most of the Eastern bloc viewed their governments as occupation governments. The Chinese don't seem to view their government as a Soviet puppet state. The state in the Eastern bloc that China most resembles is the Soviet Union. That is not a happy path to follow.
Quote from: Jacob on March 22, 2012, 11:02:42 PM
If China takes a jump to democracy rather than a slow transition, it needs a charismatic leader to take it there to have any chance of making. The most recent charismatic leader on offer was a pseudo-Maoist with a penchant for blatantly disregarding the law even by CCP standards.
Personally, I think Japan, Taiwan and South Korea are good models for successful transitions to Democracy. Belarus, the Ukraine, Hungary etc, less so.
I am not sure I want to go through a Japanese-style transition that involved a world war, destruction of most major cities, foreign occupation and two nuclear bombs ;)
Quote from: Monoriu on March 22, 2012, 11:10:04 PM
Quote from: Jacob on March 22, 2012, 11:02:42 PM
If China takes a jump to democracy rather than a slow transition, it needs a charismatic leader to take it there to have any chance of making. The most recent charismatic leader on offer was a pseudo-Maoist with a penchant for blatantly disregarding the law even by CCP standards.
Personally, I think Japan, Taiwan and South Korea are good models for successful transitions to Democracy. Belarus, the Ukraine, Hungary etc, less so.
I am not sure I want to go through a Japanese-style transition that involved a world war, destruction of most major cities, foreign occupation and two nuclear bombs ;)
But after all that it went pretty well.
Quote from: Jacob on March 22, 2012, 11:02:42 PM
If China takes a jump to democracy rather than a slow transition, it needs a charismatic leader to take it there to have any chance of making. The most recent charismatic leader on offer was a pseudo-Maoist with a penchant for blatantly disregarding the law even by CCP standards.
Personally, I think Japan, Taiwan and South Korea are good models for successful transitions to Democracy. Belarus, the Ukraine, Hungary etc, less so.
Wait, someone is agreeing with me? :o
Here, democracy is often viewed as a means to an end. The real goals are freedom, rule of law, and good governance. Democracy is a way to achieve those. The models that people here often talk about are Singapore and Hong Kong, which lack (real) democracy but provide good governance for the population.
Quote from: Monoriu on March 22, 2012, 11:10:04 PMI am not sure I want to go through a Japanese-style transition that involved a world war, destruction of most major cities, foreign occupation and two nuclear bombs ;)
Point conceded.
I think that China would have a much better chance of a successful sudden transition then it did in 1989. The economic reforms have done wonders for the country. Still it would be tricky. Creating a whole new government in working order out of whole cloth is not easy. It's even harder if your have create a whole new economic system with each part working independently but integrated all at once at the same time.
I would think that Barrister would be more sympathetic to the "Evolution over Revolution" model. After all, that is path that Canada took.
Quote from: Monoriu on March 22, 2012, 11:10:04 PM
I am not sure I want to go through a Japanese-style transition that involved a world war, destruction of most major cities, foreign occupation and two nuclear bombs ;)
Something's got to thin the globe of so many of you people.
You won't stop fucking and over-populating the planet, so if your government won't help by covering up AIDS, SARS and H1N1 fast enough, somebody needs to help the process along.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 22, 2012, 11:26:26 PM
Something's got to thin the globe of so many of you people.
You won't stop fucking...
Jealous?
Quote from: Jacob on March 22, 2012, 11:44:33 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 22, 2012, 11:26:26 PM
Something's got to thin the globe of so many of you people.
You won't stop fucking...
Jealous?
There's too goddamned many of them, and you fucking know that. China is one big fucking ecocide. So quit being a fucktard.
We also know that Chinese chicks give you a hard on.
S.M. Stirling's Change will thin the world down.
Raz, Jacob, I don't hate you.
I just hate myself for not being as smart as you are.
CdM, I do fucking hate you, for banning me.
You are worst th an Paradox.
That's it. I
m about to QuitRage Marty sytle.
Or is it ragequit?
Quote from: Siege on March 23, 2012, 12:45:48 AM
That's it. I
m about to QuitRage Marty sytle.
Or is it ragequit?
I believe it's called passing out.
What are you tlking about?
Do you know hpw many lite beers I can drink?
A LOT!
Are we, as Europeans and North Americans, really supposed to be wary of major Chinese troubles? I mean, an other division of the country, where a socialism -> democracy move would surely lead them, would, after a period of instability, sort of save our economies? Chinese collapse would mean: cheaper commodities, and the need to move a lot of production back to the developed world. :contract:
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on March 22, 2012, 05:10:29 AM
One boring group of guys in suits may be supplanting another boring group of guys in suits, its very worrying :hmm:
:D
Quote from: Tamas on March 23, 2012, 03:51:06 AM
Are we, as Europeans and North Americans, really supposed to be wary of major Chinese troubles? I mean, an other division of the country, where a socialism -> democracy move would surely lead them, would, after a period of instability, sort of save our economies? Chinese collapse would mean: cheaper commodities, and the need to move a lot of production back to the developed world. :contract:
It also means that iphones, ipads, and a huge amount of other goods will become more expensive for consumers all over the world :contract:
Quote from: Monoriu on March 22, 2012, 06:09:23 AM
I just read up a bit on Zhou Yongkang. He is 69, almost 70. He is due to step down this autumn anyway during the 18th Party Congress. The rule is, if you are 67 or older during a party congress, you need to step down.
Now I know who the Polish government got its idea to raise the retirement age to 67 from. :ph34r:
Quote from: derspiess on March 22, 2012, 11:20:18 AM
Quote from: Jacob on March 22, 2012, 10:57:16 AM
Well for you it's probably not. You get to watch dramatic things and human suffering on TV and feel good that it doesn't involve you or people you know or care about. So if that's all you care about, then a mess in China is probably a good thing for you.
Come on now, I don't enjoy watching human suffering. I'm just saying that with the Chinese Communists being the bad guys, it might not be a bad thing to have bad guys fighting against bad guys.
QuoteGeopolitically, I suppose it depends on whether you think it's likely that the US is well positioned to take advantage of a mess in China, how severe the impact is on the world (and US) economy and to what degree you expect the US itself might get sucked into or stick in a detrimental mess.
I think there would be plenty of ways to profit from a big mess in China. And I don't see any likely scenarios where the US gets sucked into it, not directly anyway.
Considering that China is probably the only important part of the global economy that isn't (yet) royally fucked up, I don't think it would be a good thing to have it collapse into a bloody mess, at least until the US and Europe start to show steady signs of recovery.
Quote from: Jacob on March 22, 2012, 11:02:42 PM
If China takes a jump to democracy rather than a slow transition, it needs a charismatic leader to take it there to have any chance of making. The most recent charismatic leader on offer was a pseudo-Maoist with a penchant for blatantly disregarding the law even by CCP standards.
Personally, I think Japan, Taiwan and South Korea are good models for successful transitions to Democracy. Belarus, the Ukraine, Hungary etc, less so.
I think you are forgetting that most former Eastern Bloc countries have transitioned rather succesfully. Belarus is an exception, not a rule in the region. As for Ukraine and Hungary, despite some "authoritarian hiccups" they are more democratic and less corrupt than Taiwan. Likewise, Japan, where the same party has ruled for half a century and where the state officials have been paying honours to a shrine to war criminals, can hardly be called that democratic, can't it?
Your yellow fever is endearing when it is not blinding you to reality.
Quote from: Monoriu on March 23, 2012, 03:56:50 AM
Quote from: Tamas on March 23, 2012, 03:51:06 AM
Are we, as Europeans and North Americans, really supposed to be wary of major Chinese troubles? I mean, an other division of the country, where a socialism -> democracy move would surely lead them, would, after a period of instability, sort of save our economies? Chinese collapse would mean: cheaper commodities, and the need to move a lot of production back to the developed world. :contract:
It also means that iphones, ipads, and a huge amount of other goods will become more expensive for consumers all over the world :contract:
The true Apple fans can sell their kidneys. Which would also, incidentally, make up for the lack of supply of condemned prisoners' organs from China. Win-win.
Quote from: Siege on March 23, 2012, 12:44:31 AM
Raz, Jacob, I don't hate you.
I just hate myself for not being as smart as you are.
CdM, I do fucking hate you, for banning me.
You are worst th an Paradox.
Don't worry. You are smarter then me. :hug:
Quote from: Tamas on March 23, 2012, 03:51:06 AM
Are we, as Europeans and North Americans, really supposed to be wary of major Chinese troubles? I mean, an other division of the country, where a socialism -> democracy move would surely lead them, would, after a period of instability, sort of save our economies? Chinese collapse would mean: cheaper commodities, and the need to move a lot of production back to the developed world. :contract:
It would also mean instability in a nation with nuclear weapons, and the possible replacement of current regime with something much, much worse. Also if the Chinese were collapsing, they might call in all our debts.
Quote from: Razgovory on March 23, 2012, 06:23:21 AM
Also if the Chinese were collapsing, they might call in all our debts.
No, they can't. There is no call option on the government bonds.
Quote from: DGuller on March 23, 2012, 08:01:27 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on March 23, 2012, 06:23:21 AM
Also if the Chinese were collapsing, they might call in all our debts.
No, they can't. There is no call option on the government bonds.
I didn't know that.
I suppose that it's possible that chaos in China would only lead to opportunities, economic development and a whole host of other benefits to the West; I'm not enough of an economist (i.e. not at all) to have any real insight into that. Personally I think it would be a bad thing, even from a purely self-centered Western perspective, but that's just a hunch. If anyone know of any cogent analysis on the subject, I'd love to read it.
I don't know how much economic benefit we got from Russia collapsing through out the 1990's. Sure we got Dguller, and I'm sure he's very good at his job, but we also got legions of Russian hackers and spammers.
QuoteSure we got Dguller
NOT A POSITIVE. JUST SAY NO TO SLAVS.
Quote from: DGuller on March 23, 2012, 08:01:27 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on March 23, 2012, 06:23:21 AM
Also if the Chinese were collapsing, they might call in all our debts.
No, they can't. There is no call option on the government bonds.
True, but they could dump their whole inventory and crash the market.
That sounds bad.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 23, 2012, 10:17:55 AM
Quote from: DGuller on March 23, 2012, 08:01:27 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on March 23, 2012, 06:23:21 AM
Also if the Chinese were collapsing, they might call in all our debts.
No, they can't. There is no call option on the government bonds.
True, but they could dump their whole inventory and crash the market.
Oh please, let them.
Quote from: Jacob on March 23, 2012, 12:01:39 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 23, 2012, 10:20:54 AMOh please, let them.
You're such a blowhard :lol:
No, I want to see what happens. I bet we handle the aftermath better than their inflexible, artificial and corrupt construct.
You figure your inflexible, artificial and corrupt construct is better than theirs?
Quote from: Neil on March 23, 2012, 02:13:09 PM
You figure your inflexible, artificial and corrupt construct is better than theirs?
Yes. Yes, I do.
Quote from: Ed Anger on March 23, 2012, 10:14:18 AM
QuoteSure we got Dguller
NOT A POSITIVE. JUST SAY NO TO SLAVS.
:mad:
That's right, you are a beet too.