I am displeased. :mad:
http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/86045/romney-pawlenty-huckabee-gop-nomination
QuoteBrave New Race
Why the old assumptions about Mitt Romney are wrong.
*
Ed Kilgore
* March 31, 2011 | 12:00 am
The obvious way to think about Mitt Romney's chances in 2012 is to revisit his 2008 campaign—what went well, what went poorly, and so on. But circumstances haven't just changed for Romney since 2008—they've more or less inverted. Back then, running against "maverick" John McCain, social-issues heretic Rudy Giuliani, and economic-issues dissenter Mike Huckabee, Romney was essentially the movement conservative candidate in the race. Today, with likely opponents ranging from Newt Gingrich to Rick Santorum to Michele Bachmann to Tim Pawlenty to Haley Barbour, Romney seems destined to be the GOP's most moderate contender. It's not that Romney himself has "moved to the center" since 2008; it's more that the Republican Party moved significantly and very self-consciously to the right, and Mitt didn't quite keep up. The upshot is that his chances in 2012 will be shaped by a very different set of circumstances from the ones he faced last time—for better or, more likely, for worse.
It's not out of the realm of possibility that Romney's new political situation could help him. If Iowa is won by a candidate unacceptable to the party as a whole—say, Michele Bachmann—then his status as the most mainstream candidate in the race could certainly start to look appealing.
But it seems much more likely that Romney's position as the race's moderate will greatly reduce his chances. For one thing, there is the matter of endorsements. In 2008, Romney's status as the only true conservative in the race garnered him a victory in the CPAC straw poll, and endorsements from Jim DeMint, Paul Weyrich, Sean Hannity, Ann Coulter, Robert Bork, Rick Santorum, and the editors of National Review—all people whose opinions carry weight with the Republican base. It's hard to imagine him winning support from any of those people in 2012.
The bigger problem for Romney, however, is that the mood in the Republican Party at the moment is triumphalist. Movement conservatives believe they have finally conquered the GOP and will soon conquer the country—if they are not sold out by the hated GOP establishment. As Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen observed after reviewing the sharp upward trend in conservative self-identification among Republican voters, "The ideological composition of the GOP at this point is such that it's probably just flat impossible for someone perceived as a moderate to be their nominee."
Romney is in a particularly bad position in Iowa, where evangelical voters remain wary of his Mormonism and he suffers from the perception that he tried to buy the caucuses last time around. Indeed, there are signs that he might be planning to skip out on the contest altogether. But if he does, he'll have to then avoid upsets in New Hampshire and Nevada, and find some way to survive South Carolina and Florida, potentially against a candidate from the South like Gingrich or Barbour. That's the point at which his inability to run as the "true conservative," and the doubts about his work on extending health care in Massachusetts, could take a major toll.
At this point Romney just doesn't have the qualities that would make hundreds of thousands of conservative ideologues excited about his candidacy or trust in his leadership. They know they'll have to carefully watch him, during the campaign and in office, to keep him from joining the long list of Republican presidents who have betrayed the cause. That's not what they've bargained for in 2012, when the forces of righteousness are due to smite the hated foe and occupy the seats of power.
Many party elites, to be sure, still back Romney for the very reason that, in this new field, he suddenly appears the most "electable" candidate—and serious conservatives will accept him if they must. But given half a chance, they'll reject him without a moment's regret, and that's a handicap few presidential candidates can overcome.
Ed Kilgore is a special correspondent for The New Republic.
His big issue is that he's a Ken doll Presidential candidate.
His biggest issue is that fact that every other Republican hates him. I still think he has a chance though. Especially if it looks like Obama is going to win.
"Movement conservatives" seem a bit confused then. I don't see how they can think they are on track to conquer the country.
Romneycare will doom him. Republican voters are capable of incredible feats of cognitive dissonance, but even that has its limits. Attacking Obamacare after having enacted Romneycare would require too much chutzpah.
I like the look of the former ambassador to China. :)
Too bad he doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell. :(
I like the black dude. Cain or something.
ISLAM IN MY CABINET? NO
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 01, 2011, 10:39:22 AM
I like the black dude. Cain or something.
ISLAM IN MY CABINET? NO
Doesn't the constitution say something about religious tests and public office and what not?
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 01, 2011, 01:06:21 AM
The bigger problem for Romney, however, is that the mood in the Republican Party at the moment is triumphalist. Movement conservatives believe they have finally conquered the GOP and will soon conquer the country—if they are not sold out by the hated GOP establishment.
That's a bit of an overstatement.
QuoteAs Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen observed after reviewing the sharp upward trend in conservative self-identification among Republican voters, "The ideological composition of the GOP at this point is such that it's probably just flat impossible for someone perceived as a moderate to be their nominee."
But moderate in what sense? If we're talking about a 'fiscal moderate', I would agree. But the mood of the GOP and of conservatism at this point is such that I doubt social issues are going to play as strong a role in the GOP primaries as economic issues will. So it's at least conceivable IMO that a socially moderate candidate with strong economic conservative credentials could win the nom. As to whether Romney (or any other likely candidate) fits that mold is another issue.
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 01, 2011, 10:39:22 AM
I like the black dude. Cain or something.
ISLAM IN MY CABINET? NO
The Godfathers' Pizza dude?
Quote from: Razgovory on April 01, 2011, 05:10:10 AM
His biggest issue is that fact that every other Republican hates him. I still think he has a chance though. Especially if it looks like Obama is going to win.
I hear this more from non-Republicans than actual Republicans themselves. I think the jury's still out. One would *think* that his Mormonism, past flip-flops on some issues, and "Romneycare" would poison him as a primary candidate. But I haven't seen any polling data yet that supports that notion.
Lots of things can happen between now & the Ohio primary, but if I had to vote right now I'd go with Mitt.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 01, 2011, 11:09:40 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 01, 2011, 10:39:22 AM
I like the black dude. Cain or something.
ISLAM IN MY CABINET? NO
The Godfathers' Pizza dude?
Love him. He speaks his mind a bit too often to be a serious contender, but I'd love to have him as the VP candidate. He'd likely expose racism on the left much like Palin exposed leftist sexism in 2008.
I don't plan on attending the caucus, but if someone held a gun to my head I would throw my vote to Daniels from Indiana.
Expect to cast my ballot for Barry Hussein come the general.
Quote from: derspiess on April 01, 2011, 11:18:21 AM
He'd likely expose racism on the left much like Palin exposed leftist sexism in 2008.
If having contempt for that soulless asshole makes me a sexist I will gladly tell the ladies to get back in the kitchen and make me some pie.
Quote from: derspiess on April 01, 2011, 11:18:21 AM
Love him. He speaks his mind a bit too often to be a serious contender, but I'd love to have him as the VP candidate. He'd likely expose racism on the left much like Palin exposed leftist sexism in 2008.
I can't remember a single specific, but I do remember fininishing an article on him with the impression that he was a KOOK. Kooky like that black Republican preacher dude.
Alan Keyes? :)
I think fahdizzle used to love Alan Keyes. Then he stopped being crazy. So he probably doesn't like him anymore. :)
Quote from: Caliga on April 01, 2011, 11:26:20 AM
I think fahdizzle used to love Alan Keyes. Then he stopped being crazy. So he probably doesn't like him anymore. :)
I've gone on record as admitting that I voted Keyes in the 1996 primary. To be fair, this was before Keyes himself went totally crazy.
Quote from: Valmy on April 01, 2011, 11:20:30 AM
If having contempt for that soulless asshole makes me a sexist I will gladly tell the ladies to get back in the kitchen and make me some pie.
I didn't say "everyone who disliked her was a sexist", did I? And are you a leftist? :huh:
I would have voted for Lamar Alexander. :wub:
Quote from: derspiess on April 01, 2011, 11:34:11 AM
I didn't say "everyone who disliked her was a sexist", did I? And are you a leftist? :huh:
You seemed to be saying that sexism the only reason anybody would ever dislike her.
Besides you know perfectly well Eleanor Roosevelt could return from the dead and would be heartedly despised by the Leftists if she decided to be a Republican this time around.
Quote from: Valmy on April 01, 2011, 11:42:36 AM
Quote from: derspiess on April 01, 2011, 11:34:11 AM
I didn't say "everyone who disliked her was a sexist", did I? And are you a leftist? :huh:
You seemed to be saying that sexism the only reason anybody would ever dislike her.
Besides you know perfectly well Eleanor Roosevelt could return from the dead and would be heartedly despised by the Leftists if she decided to be a Republican this time around.
I think Hillary may have exposed some sexism in that last round, but Sarah Palin...really? :blink:
That reminds me of the Tina Fey-Amy Poehler skit that SNL where they played Palin and Clinton speaking out about sexism and the Clinton character was apoplectic that suddenly sexism was a campaign issue that people cared about when Palin entered the scene.
Quote from: garbon on April 01, 2011, 11:46:26 AM
I think Hillary may have exposed some sexism in that last round, but Sarah Palin...really? :blink:
I think Hillary may have claimed some sexism in that last round because so many people were turned off by her ENORMOUS ASS. Doesn't mean it's true.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 01, 2011, 11:47:59 AM
Quote from: garbon on April 01, 2011, 11:46:26 AM
I think Hillary may have exposed some sexism in that last round, but Sarah Palin...really? :blink:
I think Hillary may have claimed some sexism in that last round because so many people were turned off by her ENORMOUS ASS. Doesn't mean it's true.
Hillary is
likable enough.
You know who I like grabon? That light skinned black chick at the UN. I'm sure you've got an in, hook a brother up.
Who is this?
Sue Rice IIRC.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 01, 2011, 12:19:55 PM
Sue Rice IIRC.
She may be looking for a job soon. If you help her get an interview somewhere, that could be your in.
Quote from: derspiess on April 01, 2011, 11:18:21 AM
Love him. He speaks his mind a bit too often to be a serious contender, but I'd love to have him as the VP candidate. He'd likely expose racism on the left much like Palin exposed leftist sexism GOP gender tokenism in 2008.
Fixed
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 01, 2011, 11:09:40 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 01, 2011, 10:39:22 AM
I like the black dude. Cain or something.
ISLAM IN MY CABINET? NO
The Godfathers' Pizza dude?
Yep. He is funnay.
Quote
Cain was born and raised in Georgia by working class parents.[3] He earned a bachelor's degree in Mathematics at Morehouse College in 1967, and while working for the U.S. Department of the Navy, a master's degree in computer science from Purdue University.
Cool! A black nerd. :cool:
Quote from: Caliga on April 01, 2011, 12:32:37 PM
Quote
Cain was born and raised in Georgia by working class parents.[3] He earned a bachelor's degree in Mathematics at Morehouse College in 1967, and while working for the U.S. Department of the Navy, a master's degree in computer science from Purdue University.
Cool! A black nerd. :cool:
He's definitely no Urkel. Have you heard him speak? :D
Is he more of an Urquell than an Urkel? :hmm:
Godfather's is one of the few delivery pizza chains I can stand.
I've heard their pizza is good but I don't think we have any outlets around here. :unsure:
Godfather's recently reappeared around where I'm at.
I'd still rather go to a mom and pop pizzeria.
I will go anywhere before I set foot in a Mellow Mushroom again. :yucky:
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 01, 2011, 12:40:51 PM
Godfather's recently reappeared around where I'm at.
I'd still rather go to a mom and pop pizzeria.
I agree. Fortunately for me, there's an actual NewYork-style pizzeria across the street from my office. The pizza is very close to what one gets in the northeast. The owners are from Chicago but fortunately don't subscribe to the Spellus Pizza Theory, so I enjoy dining there. :)
QuoteSpellus Pizza Theory
That TV show should have been canceled.
Quote from: Caliga on April 01, 2011, 12:37:48 PM
Is he more of an Urquell than an Urkel? :hmm:
Not really-- nobody is as smooth as Stefan.
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 01, 2011, 12:40:51 PM
Godfather's recently reappeared around where I'm at.
I'd still rather go to a mom and pop pizzeria.
I never had it but I liked their old commercials back in the early 80s.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 01, 2011, 12:19:55 PM
Sue Rice IIRC.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Susan_Rice (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Susan_Rice)
She's married.
*shrug* So is Bill Clinton. :)
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on April 01, 2011, 10:36:14 AM
I like the look of the former ambassador to China. :)
Too bad he doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell. :(
John Huntsman seems to be what Romney would have been if he hadn't spent the past 4 years or so shamelessly pandering and strapping his dog to the roof of his car.
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 02, 2011, 05:13:13 AM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on April 01, 2011, 10:36:14 AM
I like the look of the former ambassador to China. :)
Too bad he doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell. :(
John Huntsman seems to be what Romney would have been if he hadn't spent the past 4 years or so shamelessly pandering and strapping his dog to the roof of his car.
What?