Romney doomed in 2012 for entirely different reasons than he was doomed in '08

[jimmy olsen]

I am displeased. 

http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/86045/romney-pawlenty-huckabee-gop-nomination

Brave New Race
Why the old assumptions about Mitt Romney are wrong.

    *
      Ed Kilgore
   
    * March 31, 2011 | 12:00 am
   

The obvious way to think about Mitt Romney's chances in 2012 is to revisit his 2008 campaign—what went well, what went poorly, and so on. But circumstances haven't just changed for Romney since 2008—they've more or less inverted. Back then, running against "maverick" John McCain, social-issues heretic Rudy Giuliani, and economic-issues dissenter Mike Huckabee, Romney was essentially the movement conservative candidate in the race. Today, with likely opponents ranging from Newt Gingrich to Rick Santorum to Michele Bachmann to Tim Pawlenty to Haley Barbour, Romney seems destined to be the GOP's most moderate contender. It's not that Romney himself has "moved to the center" since 2008; it's more that the Republican Party moved significantly and very self-consciously to the right, and Mitt didn't quite keep up. The upshot is that his chances in 2012 will be shaped by a very different set of circumstances from the ones he faced last time—for better or, more likely, for worse.

It's not out of the realm of possibility that Romney's new political situation could help him. If Iowa is won by a candidate unacceptable to the party as a whole—say, Michele Bachmann—then his status as the most mainstream candidate in the race could certainly start to look appealing.

But it seems much more likely that Romney's position as the race's moderate will greatly reduce his chances. For one thing, there is the matter of endorsements. In 2008, Romney's status as the only true conservative in the race garnered him a victory in the CPAC straw poll, and endorsements from Jim DeMint, Paul Weyrich, Sean Hannity, Ann Coulter, Robert Bork, Rick Santorum, and the editors of National Review—all people whose opinions carry weight with the Republican base. It's hard to imagine him winning support from any of those people in 2012.

The bigger problem for Romney, however, is that the mood in the Republican Party at the moment is triumphalist. Movement conservatives believe they have finally conquered the GOP and will soon conquer the country—if they are not sold out by the hated GOP establishment. As Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen observed after reviewing the sharp upward trend in conservative self-identification among Republican voters, "The ideological composition of the GOP at this point is such that it's probably just flat impossible for someone perceived as a moderate to be their nominee."

Romney is in a particularly bad position in Iowa, where evangelical voters remain wary of his Mormonism and he suffers from the perception that he tried to buy the caucuses last time around. Indeed, there are signs that he might be planning to skip out on the contest altogether. But if he does, he'll have to then avoid upsets in New Hampshire and Nevada, and find some way to survive South Carolina and Florida, potentially against a candidate from the South like Gingrich or Barbour. That's the point at which his inability to run as the "true conservative," and the doubts about his work on extending health care in Massachusetts, could take a major toll.

At this point Romney just doesn't have the qualities that would make hundreds of thousands of conservative ideologues excited about his candidacy or trust in his leadership. They know they'll have to carefully watch him, during the campaign and in office, to keep him from joining the long list of Republican presidents who have betrayed the cause. That's not what they've bargained for in 2012, when the forces of righteousness are due to smite the hated foe and occupy the seats of power.

Many party elites, to be sure, still back Romney for the very reason that, in this new field, he suddenly appears the most "electable" candidate—and serious conservatives will accept him if they must. But given half a chance, they'll reject him without a moment's regret, and that's a handicap few presidential candidates can overcome.

Ed Kilgore is a special correspondent for The New Republic.

[Sheilbh]

His big issue is that he's a Ken doll Presidential candidate. 

[Razgovory]

His biggest issue is that fact that every other Republican hates him.  I still think he has a chance though.  Especially if it looks like Obama is going to win.

[garbon]

"Movement conservatives" seem a bit confused then. I don't see how they can think they are on track to conquer the country.

[DGuller]

Romneycare will doom him.  Republican voters are capable of incredible feats of cognitive dissonance, but even that has its limits.  Attacking Obamacare after having enacted Romneycare would require too much chutzpah.

[HisMajestyBOB]

I like the look of the former ambassador to China.
Too bad he doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell.

[Ed Anger]

I like the black dude. Cain or something.

ISLAM IN MY CABINET? NO

[Viking]

I like the black dude. Cain or something.

ISLAM IN MY CABINET? NO

Doesn't the constitution say something about religious tests and public office and what not?

[derspiess]

The bigger problem for Romney, however, is that the mood in the Republican Party at the moment is triumphalist. Movement conservatives believe they have finally conquered the GOP and will soon conquer the country—if they are not sold out by the hated GOP establishment.

That's a bit of an overstatement.

As Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen observed after reviewing the sharp upward trend in conservative self-identification among Republican voters, "The ideological composition of the GOP at this point is such that it's probably just flat impossible for someone perceived as a moderate to be their nominee."

But moderate in what sense?  If we're talking about a 'fiscal moderate', I would agree.  But the mood of the GOP and of conservatism at this point is such that I doubt social issues are going to play as strong a role in the GOP primaries as economic issues will.  So it's at least conceivable IMO that a socially moderate candidate with strong economic conservative credentials could win the nom.  As to whether Romney (or any other likely candidate) fits that mold is another issue.

[Admiral Yi]

I like the black dude. Cain or something.

ISLAM IN MY CABINET? NO

The Godfathers' Pizza dude?

[derspiess]

His biggest issue is that fact that every other Republican hates him.  I still think he has a chance though.  Especially if it looks like Obama is going to win.

I hear this more from non-Republicans than actual Republicans themselves.  I think the jury's still out.  One would *think* that his Mormonism, past flip-flops on some issues, and "Romneycare" would poison him as a primary candidate.  But I haven't seen any polling data yet that supports that notion.

Lots of things can happen between now & the Ohio primary, but if I had to vote right now I'd go with Mitt.

[derspiess]

I like the black dude. Cain or something.

ISLAM IN MY CABINET? NO

The Godfathers' Pizza dude?

Love him.  He speaks his mind a bit too often to be a serious contender, but I'd love to have him as the VP candidate.  He'd likely expose racism on the left much like Palin exposed leftist sexism in 2008.

[Admiral Yi]

I don't plan on attending the caucus, but if someone held a gun to my head I would throw my vote to Daniels from Indiana.

Expect to cast my ballot for Barry Hussein come the general.

[Valmy]

He'd likely expose racism on the left much like Palin exposed leftist sexism in 2008.

If having contempt for that soulless asshole makes me a sexist I will gladly tell the ladies to get back in the kitchen and make me some pie.

[Admiral Yi]

Love him.  He speaks his mind a bit too often to be a serious contender, but I'd love to have him as the VP candidate.  He'd likely expose racism on the left much like Palin exposed leftist sexism in 2008.

I can't remember a single specific, but I do remember fininishing an article on him with the impression that he was a KOOK.  Kooky like that black Republican preacher dude.