Sudden drama on the stock exchange :huh:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8647441.stm
It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
It's shaping up to be a good day to pick up a position or two on the dip. I'll give it a few more hours and see what develops.
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 27, 2010, 11:52:06 AM
It's shaping up to be a good day to pick up a position or two on the dip.
Keep in mind that there are probably some big institutions out there with large portfolios that are looking to dump on the bounces.
:nelson: x1000
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 27, 2010, 11:52:06 AM
It's shaping up to be a good day to pick up a position or two on the dip. I'll give it a few more hours and see what develops.
What kind of instrument would you buy to go long short term on a sovereign bond?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 27, 2010, 04:41:41 PM
What kind of instrument would you buy to go long short term on a sovereign bond?
Definitely a trumpet...
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 27, 2010, 04:41:41 PM
What kind of instrument would you buy to go long short term on a sovereign bond?
I'd say somebody looking to trade on that kind of thing would probably be doing currency exchange trades. I'm sure people shorting the Euro are making a lot of money this week. And people going long in gold. GLD is up pretty good today. I just like to take my long positions in stocks when we have downward spikes in the market in general.
Cork down, Rape up.
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 27, 2010, 06:37:01 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 27, 2010, 04:41:41 PM
What kind of instrument would you buy to go long short term on a sovereign bond?
I'd say somebody looking to trade on that kind of thing would probably be doing currency exchange trades. I'm sure people shorting the Euro are making a lot of money this week.
Why?
Europe is more likely to jettison Greece than to take a big hit to Euro value.
Quote from: Martinus on April 28, 2010, 01:23:45 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 27, 2010, 06:37:01 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 27, 2010, 04:41:41 PM
What kind of instrument would you buy to go long short term on a sovereign bond?
I'd say somebody looking to trade on that kind of thing would probably be doing currency exchange trades. I'm sure people shorting the Euro are making a lot of money this week.
Why?
Europe is more likely to jettison Greece than to take a big hit to Euro value.
I wouldn't be so sure, a lower Euro is good for exports.
German exports, for example...
IIRC the dollar has been gaining a lot against the euro over the treacherous Greeks and on the short term the euro will nosedive if Greece gets banned from the eurozone, thats how shit works.
The related thing I find funny, annoying, and scary however is what a columnist of thestreet.com calls the "HAL 9000 rallies". Every single day when the american indexes turn into negative, during their late afternoons an accross the board buying sweep begins until they manage to put stuff back into the green. Even yesterday they attempted it.
For some unfathomable reason my Marston's shares ( http://www.marstons.co.uk/ ) have been performing very badly since this news came out :hmm:
I can't see the link at all, Brits are going to respond to a Greek default by not going to the pub anymore? Rather farfetched :D
Things are rather hectic here.
And they're real bad. Far worse than any of you imagine.
Currently, Greece and Portugal will be bailed out by Germany. What the Germans think doesn't matter.
The contagion is real and spreading. A spanish crisis is almost sure (got their rating cut today) and their bailout will push the Germans to the limit.
And there are even more countries on the edge.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on April 28, 2010, 09:44:41 AM
For some unfathomable reason my Marston's shares ( http://www.marstons.co.uk/ ) have been performing very badly since this news came out :hmm:
I can't see the link at all, Brits are going to respond to a Greek default by not going to the pub anymore? Rather farfetched :D
Does Marston have any exposure to the euro? If the euro goes in the tank, that is going to hurt their bottom line when reported in pounds.
Instead of bailouts, wouldn't it be much cheaper just to make the rating agencies assign a higher grade to Greece, Portugal, and Spain?
Quote from: alfred russel on April 28, 2010, 11:55:59 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on April 28, 2010, 09:44:41 AM
For some unfathomable reason my Marston's shares ( http://www.marstons.co.uk/ ) have been performing very badly since this news came out :hmm:
I can't see the link at all, Brits are going to respond to a Greek default by not going to the pub anymore? Rather farfetched :D
Does Marston have any exposure to the euro? If the euro goes in the tank, that is going to hurt their bottom line when reported in pounds.
It is an almost completely domestic company, directly and indirectly running pubs throughout the country and brewing a lot of real ale. It probably supplies some bottled beer to foreign beer-lovers, but the quantity must be minute.
What they are doing though is snapping up prime city centre sites and developing new pubs on them; so their debt exposure is high; perhaps the feeling is that much increased interest rates in the UK are only a matter of time given the circumstances :huh:
Can Greece withstand another day of massive capital flight like this one? :huh: At least it'll be much more expensive to bail them out now than it would have been just a week ago. There will be a run on Greek banks tomorrow if it isn't underway already.
Saw this on the BEEB Website:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fnewsimg.bbc.co.uk%2Fmedia%2Fimages%2F47738000%2Fgif%2F_47738522_debt_payback_466.gif&hash=71dc4f8ea3a05ef15f1b0c06c702845556294652)
Quote from: DGuller on April 28, 2010, 01:09:23 PM
Instead of bailouts, wouldn't it be much cheaper just to make the rating agencies assign a higher grade to Greece, Portugal, and Spain?
Coupled with cracking down on speculative attacks Greece and Portugal have been complaining about, and all the problems should be solved.
Portugal and Spain could be next if the EU shrugs their shoulders and leaves the Greeks to default and/or exit the euro.
I wonder if Greece will be the Eurozone's "Lehman's" - the first one allowed to fall so that the other governments expecting the bailout will know they can't be getting golden parachutes?
I love how fucking Greeks are going on strike against budget cuts and whatnot - a bunch of cheaters and thieves.
Quote from: Martinus on April 28, 2010, 04:10:42 PM
I wonder if Greece will be the Eurozone's "Lehman's" - the first one allowed to fall so that the other governments expecting the bailout will know they can't be getting golden parachutes?
I love how fucking Greeks are going on strike against budget cuts and whatnot - a bunch of cheaters and thieves.
Hopefully not, considering that Lehman collapse led to a complete collapse of the financial system, and ultimately resulted in even bigger bailouts.
Still, I'd like to see Greeks being left to hang themselves. These motherfuckers are the worst lot in Europe - not only a bunch of cheaters and lazy bums, they are also constantly creating problems and international disputes over some shitty rocks, names of neighbouring countries or whether Alexander the Great fucked guys.
Quote from: Martinus on April 28, 2010, 04:19:57 PM
Still, I'd like to see Greeks being left to hang themselves. These motherfuckers are the worst lot in Europe - not only a bunch of cheaters and lazy bums, they are also constantly creating problems and international disputes over some shitty rocks, names of neighbouring countries or whether Alexander the Great fucked guys.
And Gaylord shows up.
I told my mother the other day that my dream is to visit the UK and meet an actual gay lord.
Quote from: garbon on April 28, 2010, 04:45:57 PM
I told my mother the other day that my dream is to visit the UK and meet an actual gay lord.
Peter Mandelson?
Oh, and Spain has now been downgraded (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7647645/EMU-domino-fears-as-Spain-downgraded-Germany-drags-feet-on-rescue.html) too.
Farewell, Eurozone! :bowler:
Quote from: Martim Silva on April 28, 2010, 11:51:31 AM
Things are rather hectic here.
And they're real bad. Far worse than any of you imagine.
Currently, Greece and Portugal will be bailed out by Germany. What the Germans think doesn't matter.
The contagion is real and spreading. A spanish crisis is almost sure (got their rating cut today) and their bailout will push the Germans to the limit.
And there are even more countries on the edge.
Why is a Spanish crisis a sure thing? There level of debt to GDP isn't anywhere close to that of Greece or Italy IIRC.
Quote from: jimmy olsen
Why is a Spanish crisis a sure thing? There level of debt to GDP isn't anywhere close to that of Greece or Italy IIRC.
The GDP/debt ratio is really misleading. It is used by politicians like Zapatero to fool the regular folks who have no financial culture.
The key is weather the market has confidence or not that a country can honour its debts.
If a nation has a high public deficit, combined with low to no growth (or is in a recession), the market will charge an ever increasing interest for the bonds the country issues.
If its costs start to eat away at its ability to pay back the bonds, and nothing serious is done, then the market will raise its prices until the nation is effectively shut out of the bond market, or left to pay prohibitive interest.
When that happens, the nation stops being able to borrow. If it cannot borrow, it cannot redeem its bonds.
If it cannot redeem its bonds, it has to default (i.e. go bankrupt).
This can happen if you owe 10% of GDP or 300% of GDP.
To go bust you only need to be in debt.
I share's Marty's sentiment over the Greeks.
Fucking lazy mofos with like 40% of the workforce in the public sector, they thought they will be able to operate their country on foreign money forever. Fuck them let them burn in Zimbabwe hell.
Quote from: Tamas on April 29, 2010, 07:12:18 AM
I share's Marty's sentiment over the Greeks.
Fucking lazy mofos with like 40% of the workforce in the public sector, they thought they will be able to operate their country on foreign money forever. Fuck them let them burn in Zimbabwe hell.
He'll survive on potatoes and hunks of black bread, you have your wagon and beets.
Quote from: Tamas on April 29, 2010, 07:12:18 AM
I share's Marty's sentiment over the Greeks.
Fucking lazy mofos with like 40% of the workforce in the public sector, they thought they will be able to operate their country on foreign money forever. Fuck them let them burn in Zimbabwe hell.
Kind of funny seeing the Hungarian and the Pole get all elitist about another Eurofail country.
Quote from: Berkut on April 29, 2010, 07:55:27 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 29, 2010, 07:12:18 AM
I share's Marty's sentiment over the Greeks.
Fucking lazy mofos with like 40% of the workforce in the public sector, they thought they will be able to operate their country on foreign money forever. Fuck them let them burn in Zimbabwe hell.
Kind of funny seeing the Hungarian and the Pole get all elitist about another Eurofail country.
Nah, we have been doing the exact same shit of course, only on a bit smaller scale perhaps, due to us being non-euro members
Quote from: Savonarola on April 28, 2010, 02:48:29 PM
Saw this on the BEEB Website:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fnewsimg.bbc.co.uk%2Fmedia%2Fimages%2F47738000%2Fgif%2F_47738522_debt_payback_466.gif&hash=71dc4f8ea3a05ef15f1b0c06c702845556294652)
What does the y axis represent?
Something not good would be my guess.
Quote from: Monoriu on April 29, 2010, 08:44:32 AM
Quote from: Savonarola on April 28, 2010, 02:48:29 PM
Saw this on the BEEB Website:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fnewsimg.bbc.co.uk%2Fmedia%2Fimages%2F47738000%2Fgif%2F_47738522_debt_payback_466.gif&hash=71dc4f8ea3a05ef15f1b0c06c702845556294652)
What does the y axis represent?
Sorry, I should have included the header. The y-axis is predicted likelihood of bankruptcy in the next five years.
Quote from: DGuller on April 29, 2010, 08:59:12 AM
Something not good would be my guess.
It can't ever be good if the Greeks and Portuguese are winning.
Quote from: Savonarola on April 29, 2010, 09:07:22 AM
Quote from: DGuller on April 29, 2010, 08:59:12 AM
Something not good would be my guess.
It can't ever be good if the Greeks and Portuguese are winning.
The Portuguese lead in raping Canadian girls. We have a rape gap!
Quote from: Martim Silva on April 29, 2010, 06:57:31 AM
This can happen if you owe 10% of GDP or 300% of GDP.
To go bust you only need to be in debt.
A county *can* go bust at any level of debt because going bust is a unilateral act.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 28, 2010, 07:22:45 PM
Why is a Spanish crisis a sure thing? There level of debt to GDP isn't anywhere close to that of Greece or Italy IIRC.
A crisis would be perfectly avoidable ... if our politicians had the will to do so.
Anyway, Spain has a lot of problems (and thus a lot of room to improve). Solving just one would allow us to weather the storm fairly easily. Fixing several would bring us much closer to our northern friends.
To make a small list:
- Productivity: Despite what many may think Spaniards work a lot of hours. More than Germans, French, Dutch, Swedes and so on. Many of those take the form of unpaid overtime. Yet all those hours don't translate into higher production due to many factors (lack of energy or motivation after a long day, bad work ethics, outdated or downright chaotic practices, etc).
- Education: This one is linked with the first. We need a big overhaul of education. One that works. Past attempts have failed miserably. Also, university needs to be more expensive and focus much more on research.
- Government service: civil servants cannot be fired. This needs to change. There's a lot of excess weight over there, especially in the Computer Age (curiously enough both my brother and I have created software that render a number of civil service jobs obsolete :P).
- Corruption: self explanatory.
- Debt: Many, many people (especially 30-40 year olds) are heavily indebted, having bought during the housing bubble. In many cases paying it all back will take 3 or 4 decades. And payments make fequently up to half the combined income of a couple (basically an entire salary goes to pay the mortgage). You cannot give the banks the keys and forget about the mortgage either. Your entire assets (and usually those of your parents) are backingthe mortgage.
- Labor cost and market rigidity: It is quite costly to keep people long enough for them to be useful in any skilled job. This in practice means there are two tiers of workers: those that are very expensive to fire and those that are completely expendable (youth, mostly). This greatly affects productivity (the former lack the motivation to work hard, the latter will be let go just when they are getting good at a job and replaced with another cheap temp worker).
- Massive unemployment: As a result of the complete annihilation of the housing sector, millions have lost their jobs. And many of those will not get another one. They can't do anything else. They are uneducated immigrants, high school dropouts or heavily specialized in this industry (architects, structural engineers, masons, etc). With a bit of luck some will go back to their countries of origin or migrate to greener pastures, but it will remain a huge problem.
- Growing retirement and health costs: This one is universal in first world countries. Our baby boom generation will retire in 10 years. We need to increase retirement age stat.
Most of those cannot be solved in a matter of months. But we can at least show that we're trying.
Err, you work long hours because you take like 3-4 hour lunch breaks. :P
Quote from: Martinus on April 29, 2010, 03:26:11 PM
Err, you work long hours because you take like 3-4 hour lunch breaks. :P
I mean hours worked (not counting lunch or commute). Many people regularly work overtime. Most of those do not receive any money for that (like me). My record is not at all impressive (below 70h a week), but that's only because of my illness. My boss fears I might get sick again if I go back on the field, so he has me covering the home front, which means less overtime. However, all my mates in the department have 70+ workweeks regularly. And it's not just engineers. My brother suffers from the same thing as a project lead in a software company. My father did too, working as a junior manager at the bank. The same happens in many, many other sectors (certain vocational jobs, like soldering, suffer less from this, maybe because there are less vocational school graduates than college graduates).
In fact the best thing about being a public servant is that this kind of thing does not happen when you work for the government. Which is precisely why I'm studying to become a mere maintenance worker for the state - instead of a private sector engineering whore. Efficiency at its best.
Quote from: Martinus on April 29, 2010, 03:26:11 PM
Err, you work long hours because you take like 3-4 hour lunch breaks. :P
Not anymore, we entered modernity a good while ago. It's the kind of thing that all tourist guides babble about.
Swedes are very productive. We hardly work any hours at all and yet things keep getting done.