I say 58
Where's the Jaron option?
I think 67+ is a real possibility. It's not out of the question that we'll have another clashes on 17th, this time much bloodier, and also as soon as Trump is completely not relevant, the details of the depths of his depravity will just keep gushing out. I think a lot of Republican Senators will be shocked to hear about all that.
57
Ask me after this weekend.
66.
53-54.
They can't let trumpism die, it'll be too useful come 2022 and 2024.
Incidentally are the newly elected senators now sworn in or is this and the House the last lot?
55 or 75, depending on McConnell.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 13, 2021, 11:54:06 PM
55 or 75, depending on McConnell.
I agree with Eddie. I don't think we'll see a vote in the high 50s or low 60s. We'll either see just a few votes or enough to convict.
69
Quote from: The Brain on January 14, 2021, 03:20:56 AM
69
Wouldn't it be neat if there'd been 420 in the House.
I've read 20 republicans are open to it..
So I expect low 60s. Let's say 64
I'd guess in the mid sixties. I think McConnell wants it done.
Quote from: DGuller on January 13, 2021, 10:20:32 PM
I think 67+ is a real possibility. It's not out of the question that we'll have another clashes on 17th, this time much bloodier, and also as soon as Trump is completely not relevant, the details of the depths of his depravity will just keep gushing out. I think a lot of Republican Senators will be shocked to hear about all that.
Shocked, shocked I tell you!
I assume Trump is being paranoid and throwing stuff to everyone, becuase the alternative, that he legitimately beeds to bribe Shelby for an aquital vote, would indicate that he's in trouble.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AndyMackReports/status/1349444483314634753
QuoteSources confirm that the decision to move Space Command to Alabama was an override by President Trump and is linked to his current impeachment.
The source told us Trump wants Alabama's Sens/Reps on his side after the US Capitol riot.
You mean.... Excellent! :sleep:
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 13, 2021, 11:54:06 PM
55 or 75, depending on McConnell.
I'm thinking along similar lines, 53/54 or landslide if it is decided to dump him.
FYI on Predictit 67+ votes to convict by 1/29 is going for 24 cents.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 17, 2021, 04:49:42 AM
FYI on Predictit 67+ votes to convict by 1/29 is going for 24 cents.
Seems reasonable.
I'd bet low on the low side. Putting aside the merits of whether he deserves to be removed from office, the primary practical effect will be to prevent him from running again. A senator with presidential ambitions is going to look like he is voted to remove an opponent. The argument will be raised, "counting all the votes is a little hollow if you choose the candidates". Some democrats may even relish the thought of him continuing to divide the republican party through the 2024 primary season.
They may relish it, but a no vote will be hard to justify to their voters.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 17, 2021, 09:46:18 AM
They may relish it, but a no vote will be hard to justify to their voters.
You do have a democratic senator from West Virginia and another from Montana. Plus one from Ohio and you will have two from both Georgia and Arizona. Hard to imagine them losing an election because they say, "hey, Trump is a corrupt SOB that has no business being president, but I believe the voters should have the choice." Might even help them.
Voters made their choice and the GOP wasn't having it, either.
Quote from: alfred russel on January 17, 2021, 11:02:44 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 17, 2021, 09:46:18 AM
They may relish it, but a no vote will be hard to justify to their voters.
You do have a democratic senator from West Virginia and another from Montana. Plus one from Ohio and you will have two from both Georgia and Arizona. Hard to imagine them losing an election because they say, "hey, Trump is a corrupt SOB that has no business being president, but I believe the voters should have the choice." Might even help them.
Tester has gone public and will convict. Manchin said the house impeachment was ill advised in timing but yesterday said he would convict. Sherrod Brown is a safe convict vote. Sinema has not gone on record but voted to convict last time - she will do the same this time. There is zero chance the GA senators will not convict - recall how they got in office.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 17, 2021, 11:46:28 AM
Tester has gone public and will convict. Manchin said the house impeachment was ill advised in timing but yesterday said he would convict. Sherrod Brown is a safe convict vote. Sinema has not gone on record but voted to convict last time - she will do the same this time. There is zero chance the GA senators will not convict - recall how they got in office.
If so that seems really shortsighted. Warnock for instance is up for reelection in 2 years and has almost zero risk of a primary challenge. He got into office in a Senate runoff after the democratic senate candidates got less votes than republicans in the general election, but republican turnout was more depressed in the runoff (a possible contributing factor the Trump allegations of voter fraud in Georgia).
Not is it not shortsighted, such a betrayal would infuriate his own supporters and suppress their turnout, which was crucial to his victory.
Voting to convict has no downside in contrast because he has no chance of attracting the remaining die hard Trump voters and they will turnout in whatever numbers they will turnout for 2022 regardless of what Warnock does.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 17, 2021, 12:23:39 PM
Not is it not shortsighted, such a betrayal would infuriate his own supporters and suppress their turnout, which was crucial to his victory.
Voting to convict has no downside in contrast because he has no chance of attracting the remaining die hard Trump voters and they will turnout in whatever numbers they will turnout for 2022 regardless of what Warnock does.
I think you are wrong. Regarding his own voters, I really doubt they will be especially disillusioned regarding a vote to convict someone already out of office, but in 2022 he isn't going to be the main voting event in Georgia anyway: we have a probable Kemp vs. Stacey Abrams rematch for governor. I really doubt the base is going to avoid showing up to vote for Abrams because Warnock didn't vote to convict Trump.
Warnock was in a field of 20 or so in November, but using Ossoff as the stand in:
In November, he lost to Perdue 49.7% to 47.9%.
In the January run offs, he won 50.4% to 49.6%.
If you look at the vote shifts, the biggest driver was that voters didn't turn out in the rural areas that were Trump's best support (especially the congressional district that elected a QAnon supporter to the House).
Kemp is already very divisive among MAGA nation--Trump has called for him to be jailed. It seems unlikely he is going to be great for MAGA turnout. But to vote against a senator who voted to take away their chance to vote again for their god-emperor in 2024? That might get some turnout.
The Trump impeachment conviction vote will be long forgotten by the 2022 elections. Those elections will hinge on how the people of Georgia feel about the Biden administration at that point.
Come now, there's a couple other potentially interesting Senate races in play as well.
Not to mention the House.
Seeing McConnell's lines today I now think it'll be top end of my guess - high 60s-low 70s. Enough to impeach.
I wonder to what extent McConnell still has power to lead. Could he himself be sidelined now that he's a lot less useful?
Quote from: DGuller on January 19, 2021, 04:35:06 PM
I wonder to what extent McConnell still has power to lead. Could he himself be sidelined now that he's a lot less useful?
I don't see why his status would've taken a hit - I don't think anyone would be blaming him for losing the Senate. Plus I think he's still a very good fundraiser for other candidates.
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 19, 2021, 03:49:29 PM
Seeing McConnell's lines today I now think it'll be top end of my guess - high 60s-low 70s. Enough to impeach.
What did he say today?
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 19, 2021, 04:43:55 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 19, 2021, 04:35:06 PM
I wonder to what extent McConnell still has power to lead. Could he himself be sidelined now that he's a lot less useful?
I don't see why his status would've taken a hit - I don't think anyone would be blaming him for losing the Senate. Plus I think he's still a very good fundraiser for other candidates.
He may take a hit because he just doesn't have the power he used to have, whatever the reason, and he seems to be making a move to denounce the Trump faction. If the cowardly faction of GOP thinks that the Trump faction is still the future, they may not want to listen to what Mitch has to say and will have fewer reasons to force themselves to listen to him.
Quote from: Jacob on January 19, 2021, 06:26:42 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 19, 2021, 03:49:29 PM
Seeing McConnell's lines today I now think it'll be top end of my guess - high 60s-low 70s. Enough to impeach.
What did he say today?
From part of the NYTimes reporting
QuoteSenator Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader, said on Tuesday that the mob that stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6 had been "provoked by the president and other powerful people," stating publicly for the first time that he holds President Trump at least partly responsible for the assault.
"The mob was fed lies," Mr. McConnell said, referring to attempts by Mr. Trump to overturn the election based on bogus claims of voter fraud. "They were provoked by the president and other powerful people. And they tried to use fear and violence to stop a specific proceeding of the first branch of the federal government which they did not like."
Quote from: Jacob on January 19, 2021, 06:26:42 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 19, 2021, 03:49:29 PM
Seeing McConnell's lines today I now think it'll be top end of my guess - high 60s-low 70s. Enough to impeach.
What did he say today?
sorry, no link yet, not a direct quote, heard it on tv minutes ago:
"We gather for the first time since criminals invaded the first chamber of government to prevent its people from doing their sworn duty. A mob incited by lies from the President and other influential people".
So that's the gist of it.
Coming from McConnell, it's huge.
And grilled by CC! :)
Yeah - it sounds like it's an attempt to pin all of this on Trump (and Trump alone) and to get rid of Trump when he's at his lowest point in terms of popularity (even with Republicans) and can't retaliate either on Twitter or from the Rose Garden. Smart but very cynical politics which is what you'd expect from McConnell.
I could be wrong.
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 05:28:53 AM
Yeah - it sounds like it's an attempt to pin all of this on Trump (and Trump alone) and to get rid of Trump when he's at his lowest point in terms of popularity (even with Republicans) and can't retaliate either on Twitter or from the Rose Garden. Smart but very cynical politics which is what you'd expect from McConnell.
I could be wrong.
So Trump gets punished for what he did, and the rift within the republicans widens because the Trumpists won't like this at all. Fine by me.
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 05:28:53 AM
Yeah - it sounds like it's an attempt to pin all of this on Trump (and Trump alone) and to get rid of Trump when he's at his lowest point in terms of popularity (even with Republicans) and can't retaliate either on Twitter or from the Rose Garden. Smart but very cynical politics which is what you'd expect from McConnell.
I could be wrong.
You could be, but I suspect a lot of non GOP would see it that way too. He could have been replace by Pence 2 years ago, after his impeachment. McConnell made sure to kill that, even if his Senate voted to agree on the FBI reports reporting collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign. Everything that happenned is on him as well as Trump. And he never committed itself to recognize Biden's victory until the electoral college vote, or shortly before, when there was 100% chances Trump would be out of the WH in a few months.
Oh I totally agree. That's why I wouldn't be surprised if McConnell tried to impeach/end Trump now. He got everything he could out of Trump's improbable election victory and now Trump's leaving office with historically bad approval ratings he will now turn on him and try to pin everything on Trump. As I say I think it seems like pretty smart if cynical politics - but that seems like McConnell's trademark.
I predicted a while ago that once Trump is no longer useful as a politician, he's useful as a monster to denounce for those who rode his coattails. McConnell, being the smartest and most cynical of the bunch, just got on the train first, but this train is going to fill up.
Quote from: DGuller on January 20, 2021, 07:13:02 PM
I predicted a while ago that once Trump is no longer useful as a politician, he's useful as a monster to denounce for those who rode his coattails. McConnell, being the smartest and most cynical of the bunch, just got on the train first, but this train is going to fill up.
Much like the Wermacht generals suddenly saying Hitler was mad in all their memoirs when Hitler was safely out of the picture.
Quote from: DGuller on January 20, 2021, 07:13:02 PM
I predicted a while ago that once Trump is no longer useful as a politician, he's useful as a monster to denounce for those who rode his coattails. McConnell, being the smartest and most cynical of the bunch, just got on the train first, but this train is going to fill up.
Yeah and I think the fact he lost changes the calculation for Trumpier politicians because I've no doubt Cruz and Hawley would oppose this, but I imagine they'd be pretty happy if Trump was forbidden from running in 2024. If they were looking to pick up his mantle after two terms I suspect they'd be far more vocal in trying to block any conviction.
Quote from: DGuller on January 20, 2021, 07:13:02 PM
I predicted a while ago that once Trump is no longer useful as a politician, he's useful as a monster to denounce for those who rode his coattails. McConnell, being the smartest and most cynical of the bunch, just got on the train first, but this train is going to fill up.
McConnell has never seemed enamored with Trumpism as an electoral strategy. In 2016, before the election, he was trying to separate Senate Republicans from Trump -- probably because he expected Trump to go down in flames. He never handed Trump legislative victories when Trump had unique policy initiatives that were distinct from long time republican ones--such as wall funding. He was all about Trump's policies when they did--tax cuts and corporate tax reform.
From a political point of view, the battles in the next congress are going to be won or lost whether he can keep the 4-5 most liberal republicans in line and get a defector from the 4-5 most conservative democrats. To the extent his personal influence matters, right now it is to his benefit to be moderate.
Quote from: alfred russel on January 21, 2021, 01:01:48 PM
McConnell has never seemed enamored with Trumpism as an electoral strategy. In 2016, before the election, he was trying to separate Senate Republicans from Trump -- probably because he expected Trump to go down in flames. He never handed Trump legislative victories when Trump had unique policy initiatives that were distinct from long time republican ones--such as wall funding. He was all about Trump's policies when they did--tax cuts and corporate tax reform.
And of course he did the same in 2020 - I remember reading the line from McConnell in the summer/early autumn that Republicans in tough races should feel free to ditch the President as much as they want if that helped.
QuoteFrom a political point of view, the battles in the next congress are going to be won or lost whether he can keep the 4-5 most liberal republicans in line and get a defector from the 4-5 most conservative democrats. To the extent his personal influence matters, right now it is to his benefit to be moderate.
This is another key point - and particularly relevant here is that while he's not a moderate, a key vote McConnell needs to keep is Romney who broke ranks on the last impeachment, has issued very strong statements on Trump and I feel will almost certainly vote for impeachment this time round too. Romney's not a moderate, but he's got his own gravitas as a former Presidential candidate, he's not up for re-election for a while, he's not in a very Trumpy state (comparatively) and he's very popular in that state - so it would seem risky if the leadership immediately disappointed him.
That's also why I think now they'll be pretty cooperative over nominations.
Quote from: DGuller on January 20, 2021, 07:13:02 PM
I predicted a while ago that once Trump is no longer useful as a politician, he's useful as a monster to denounce for those who rode his coattails. McConnell, being the smartest and most cynical of the bunch, just got on the train first, but this train is going to fill up.
McConnell is certainly the the most cynical and probably the smartest making him a fairly successful majority leader. I just wish that it wasn't so destructive. The blocking of all judges under Obama was certainly effective in the short term, but I'm no longer certain the US will be a democracy 10 years from now.
:lol: Couldn't have got this more wrong :ph34r:
GOP still afraid of Trump. Probably good news for the Dems.
54 the are cowards.
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 26, 2021, 06:47:07 PM
GOP still afraid of Trump. Probably good news for the Dems.
I think they're afraid he will go through with his threat to form a third party, thereby fatally dividing the conservative vote and handing lasting power to the Democrats.
Quote from: Caliga on January 26, 2021, 07:42:30 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 26, 2021, 06:47:07 PM
GOP still afraid of Trump. Probably good news for the Dems.
I think they're afraid he will go through with his threat to form a third party, thereby fatally dividing the conservative vote and handing lasting power to the Democrats.
If they're afraid of a third party isn't impeachment the best bet? Cutoff his attempts to get elected.
But conviction and vote to bar from future office might inflame his followers and empower him further... banning him won't prevent Don Jr or Ivanka from running.
Quote from: Caliga on January 26, 2021, 07:46:10 PM
But conviction and vote to bar from future office might inflame his followers and empower him further... banning him won't prevent Don Jr or Ivanka from running.
One Trump at a time.
Don Jr doesn't have his father's talent for demagoguery.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 26, 2021, 10:26:06 PM
Don Jr doesn't have his father's talent for demagoguery.
Be honest... would you really have predicted Trump could possibly win the presidency at the start of the 2016 cycle? IIRC we were all laughing at him, myself included.
Quote from: Caliga on January 26, 2021, 10:50:59 PM
Be honest... would you really have predicted Trump could possibly win the presidency at the start of the 2016 cycle? IIRC we were all laughing at him, myself included.
From the very first poll he was a legitimate threat. That's why I caucused for Rubio in 16.
Quote from: Caliga on January 26, 2021, 10:50:59 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 26, 2021, 10:26:06 PM
Don Jr doesn't have his father's talent for demagoguery.
Be honest... would you really have predicted Trump could possibly win the presidency at the start of the 2016 cycle? IIRC we were all laughing at him, myself included.
" nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public"
Quote from: Caliga on January 26, 2021, 10:50:59 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 26, 2021, 10:26:06 PM
Don Jr doesn't have his father's talent for demagoguery.
Be honest... would you really have predicted Trump could possibly win the presidency at the start of the 2016 cycle? IIRC we were all laughing at him, myself included.
I wouldn't have, no. That said, all the Trumps have had much scrutiny over the last four years. Jr has done ok as a hype man but done nothing to establish himself as a leader. Eric is a walking joke and Ivanka is more interested in excusing her father to the cultural elites than embracing his base. If Donald can't run himself, this hypothetical 3rd party run goes from Perot '92 to Nader.
Quote from: Caliga on January 26, 2021, 10:50:59 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 26, 2021, 10:26:06 PM
Don Jr doesn't have his father's talent for demagoguery.
Be honest... would you really have predicted Trump could possibly win the presidency at the start of the 2016 cycle? IIRC we were all laughing at him, myself included.
No. As Yi said he was a legitimate threat right from the beginning. And it was a big deal at the time that he finished second in Iowa, which I hoped would take some of the shine off of him as this "winner" but nope.
He had spent the previous four years becoming a reactionary super star on twitter. I kept hoping that he had a ceiling of support and thus fail to ultimately capture the Republican nomination. It was not to be though.
Spicey kept insisting his campaign was going to implode any day now though.
Liep has the inside track.
57 is surprising to me. I would not have expected more than 55 unless Mitch made a strong push for conviction.
So Burr of NC flipped after voting to call off the trial. :hmm:
Quote from: jimmy olsen on February 15, 2021, 07:56:42 PM
57 is surprising to me. I would not have expected more than 55 unless Mitch made a strong push for conviction.
I didn't watch it all but apparently there was some distressing video evidence (eg the cop being slowly crushed in a doorway), maybe that provoked a crisis of conscience in a couple of senators?
Apparently one of the Republican congressmen that voted in favour of impeachment got disowned from part of his family because of it. That doesn't really sound like a healthy political environment.
QuoteAs the Republican Party censures, condemns and seeks to purge leaders who aren't in lock step with Donald J. Trump, Adam Kinzinger, the six-term Illinois congressman, stands as enemy No. 1 — unwelcome not just in his party but also in his own family, some of whom recently disowned him.
Two days after Mr. Kinzinger called for removing Mr. Trump from office following the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol, 11 members of his family sent him a handwritten two-page letter, saying he was in cahoots with "the devil's army" for making a public break with the president.
"Oh my, what a disappointment you are to us and to God!" they wrote. "You have embarrassed the Kinzinger family name!"
The author of the letter was Karen Otto, Mr. Kinzinger's cousin, who paid $7 to send it by certified mail to Mr. Kinzinger's father — to make sure the congressman would see it, which he did. She also sent copies to Republicans across Illinois, including other members of the state's congressional delegation.
"I wanted Adam to be shunned," she said in an interview.
A 42-year-old Air National Guard pilot who represents a crescent-shaped district along the Chicago's suburbs, Mr. Kinzinger is at the forefront of the effort to navigate post-Trump politics. He is betting his political career, professional relationships and kinship with a wing of his sprawling family that his party's future lies in disavowing Mr. Trump and the conspiracy theories the former president stoked.
Who the fuck cares about the political views of a cousin? Oh right, nutjobs.
QuoteThe author of the letter was Karen Otto, Mr. Kinzinger's cousin, who paid $7 to send it by certified mail to Mr. Kinzinger's father — to make sure the congressman would see it, which he did.
Is the telephone system down in Illinois?
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 16, 2021, 08:26:58 AM
Is the telephone system down in Illinois?
She's very conservative and apparently not a fan of new technologies.
Quote from: The Brain on February 16, 2021, 07:13:36 AM
Who the fuck cares about the political views of a cousin? Oh right, nutjobs.
In the Ozarks a disagreement between cousins can destroy a perfectly good marriage.
I love that her name is Karen. :lol:
Quote from: The Larch on February 16, 2021, 06:46:21 AM
Apparently one of the Republican congressmen that voted in favour of impeachment got disowned from part of his family because of it. That doesn't really sound like a healthy political environment.
OMG! Cancel Culture!!!11
Very culty...I mean literally so I guess as she is saying he betrayed God and shit.
It seems every family has a judgmental attention whore like Karen Otto. Best to just leave them to wail on their own.