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By "this", and I know it's different in different countries, but generally I'm talking about the emergency. Another way of wording the question could be. How long before everyone (who has a job) can go back to the office, and social-distancing laws are relaxed?

Normalcy won't come back until there's an effective treatment or vaccine, so give or take one year or autumn at the earliest. Until that, we'll probably be getting social distancing and occasional confinements to contain occasional breakouts, like it's happening in SE/E Asia.

Quote from: Josephus on April 04, 2020, 01:31:19 PM
By "this", and I know it's different in different countries, but generally I'm talking about the emergency. Another way of wording the question could be. How long before everyone (who has a job) can go back to the office, and social-distancing laws are relaxed?

There's not a total lockdown in place here and there's been a huge change in social behavior. Hence the curve is linear here, not exponential. That'll continue until there's a vaccine. So 12-18 months plus however long it takes to produce and distribute the vaccine.

Quote from: celedhring on April 04, 2020, 01:38:35 PM
Normalcy won't come back until there's an effective treatment or vaccine, so give or take one year or autumn at the earliest. Until that, we'll probably be getting social distancing and occasional confinements to contain occasional breakouts, like it's happening in SE/E Asia.

Yep.

Labour day or even before then seems reasonable for the full on lock down being eased somewhat.
But totally back to normal? Not until after summer at the earliest.
International travel will be a mess into next year. Various restrictions on national travel up till then.

I think about a year or 18 months until things are back to normal. The next couple of months is the really grim part.

As I said in another thread, I think we're back to normal when everyone is over-supplied with masks and gloves, and they're made mandatory.  I think that will happen fairly quickly, definitely inside of three months.  People would still be freshly infected, and dying, but the risk would be mitigated enough and the spread retarded sufficiently that continued economic shutdown would not be reasonable.

Quote from: DGuller on April 04, 2020, 03:27:50 PM
As I said in another thread, I think we're back to normal when everyone is over-supplied with masks and gloves, and they're made mandatory.  I think that will happen fairly quickly, definitely inside of three months.  People would still be freshly infected, and dying, but the risk would be mitigated enough and the spread retarded sufficiently that continued economic shutdown would not be reasonable.

What is the point of gloves? If you just wear a pair of gloves all day, won't that spread disease as much as your normal hands?

I get the point if you are touching a potentially infected surface and immediately throw the gloves away (without touching the exposed parts of the glove) as is done in a medical setting. But in everyday life?

Quote from: alfred russel on April 04, 2020, 03:37:41 PM

Quote from: DGuller on April 04, 2020, 03:27:50 PM
As I said in another thread, I think we're back to normal when everyone is over-supplied with masks and gloves, and they're made mandatory.  I think that will happen fairly quickly, definitely inside of three months.  People would still be freshly infected, and dying, but the risk would be mitigated enough and the spread retarded sufficiently that continued economic shutdown would not be reasonable.

What is the point of gloves? If you just wear a pair of gloves all day, won't that spread disease as much as your normal hands?

I get the point if you are touching a potentially infected surface and immediately throw the gloves away (without touching the exposed parts of the glove) as is done in a medical setting. But in everyday life?

The point of wearing the same gloves all day escapes me as well.  Maybe it's psychological, you're less likely to rub your eyes with gloved hands?  I agree that it seems like the point of gloves is to frequently change them.

Outside of a medical context, isn't it just so you don't have to wash your hands all the time?

Quote from: Tyr on April 04, 2020, 02:05:44 PM
Labour day or even before then seems reasonable for the full on lock down being eased somewhat.
But totally back to normal? Not until after summer at the earliest.
International travel will be a mess into next year. Various restrictions on national travel up till then.

Labor Day in North America is the first Monday of September. :)

I think that things will finally start to ease up in my state right after Memorial Day, which is the fourth Monday in May.

Quote from: alfred russel on April 04, 2020, 03:37:41 PM

Quote from: DGuller on April 04, 2020, 03:27:50 PM
As I said in another thread, I think we're back to normal when everyone is over-supplied with masks and gloves, and they're made mandatory.  I think that will happen fairly quickly, definitely inside of three months.  People would still be freshly infected, and dying, but the risk would be mitigated enough and the spread retarded sufficiently that continued economic shutdown would not be reasonable.

What is the point of gloves? If you just wear a pair of gloves all day, won't that spread disease as much as your normal hands?

I get the point if you are touching a potentially infected surface and immediately throw the gloves away (without touching the exposed parts of the glove) as is done in a medical setting. But in everyday life?

As gloves aren't available here at all, it's all theoretical for me. But if I had them, I'd wear them when I went grocery shopping and then toss them as soon as I got the groceries inside and put away. As that's the only time I'm going outside, that's the only time I could see wearing them right now.

Quote from: merithyn on April 04, 2020, 04:53:55 PM

As gloves aren't available here at all, it's all theoretical for me. But if I had them, I'd wear them when I went grocery shopping and then toss them as soon as I got the groceries inside and put away. As that's the only time I'm going outside, that's the only time I could see wearing them right now.

Merry have you considered washing some packets with detergent or soap?

I've started doing given the risk of contamination from check-out  conveyor belts or indeed my own cross contaminations whilst out.

For plenty of things like cereals, I open the boxes, then when I've washed properly, take the inner bags and putting them in old pre-virus boxes. 

Is this a little extreme? :unsure:

Quote from: mongers on April 04, 2020, 04:58:30 PM

Quote from: merithyn on April 04, 2020, 04:53:55 PM

As gloves aren't available here at all, it's all theoretical for me. But if I had them, I'd wear them when I went grocery shopping and then toss them as soon as I got the groceries inside and put away. As that's the only time I'm going outside, that's the only time I could see wearing them right now.

Merry have you considered washing some packets with detergent or soap?

I've started doing if given the risk of contamination from check out  conveyor belts or indeed my own cross contaminations.

Plenty of things like cereals, I'm opening the boxes, then when I've washed properly, taking the inner bags and putting them in old pre-virus boxes. 

Is this a litter extreme? :unsure:

I haven't, but that's not a bad idea. I don't think it's extreme at all. It would alleviate some of my stress, too, because I won't use the food that I buy right away, instead making it wait two days. This way I could have cereal tonight for dinner instead of having to wait for Monday morning. :P

My aunt washes every single item that enters her house. They are taking care of her husband's father, who's 88, so I can understand the overzealousness, but I can't see me doing myself. I just wash my hands and my phone's screen when coming from outside.

Complete normalcy will probably take several years, until a vaccine is available.  Or the virus mutates to a less lethal form.  Whichever comes first.

Hopefully the most stringent restrictions will be lifted in several weeks.  I think there is a lot of pressure to lift them.  As I see it, the universal wearing of surgical masks is reasonably effective in Hong Kong and other places that have this practice.  If this is adopted in the West, and production of masks can keep up, the number of cases and deaths can be kept to a low enough level to enable the relaxation of some of the restrictions.  So far we have ~850 cases and 4 or 5 deaths in four months in one of the most densely packed places on earth, and I still go to restaurants every day. 

But there will be some yo-yoing.  I worked from home in February, then started to go back to the office three days a week in early March.  Then all the students studying in the west came back in mid-March.  The number of cases soared, and I worked from home again.  Even if a place successfully cleans up, the virus may come back because there is a surge somewhere else. 

I personally have given up licking doorknobs for the time being.

But how long do you think you can keep it up?

Quote from: celedhring on April 04, 2020, 05:18:33 PM
My aunt washes every single item that enters her house. They are taking care of her husband's father, who's 88, so I can understand the overzealousness, but I can't see me doing myself. I just wash my hands and my phone's screen when coming from outside.

My sister does the shopping and distributes stuff for the family. She's a chemist, so I trust she does a good job.  :P

In any case I do have a queue (FIFO) for non-perishable items, so it takes me several days to get to them. Fresh stuff (meat, eggs) is cooked, so that should take care of bugs. I've always been a slightly compulsive handwasher, so I don't have to add extra steps now.  :D

Voted Labor Day.  I think schools and universities will be open for the fall term.

Probably a year or two unless it gets so out of control it just burns through the population in six months.

Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2020, 05:56:49 AM
Probably a year or two unless it gets so out of control it just burns through the population in six months.

Even then we don't know if there'll be lasting immunity.

Quote from: Iormlund on April 06, 2020, 06:17:46 AM

Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2020, 05:56:49 AM
Probably a year or two unless it gets so out of control it just burns through the population in six months.

Even then we don't know if there'll be lasting immunity.

I think the scientists here have said the assumption is it'll be seasonal immunity because that's the norm for other coronaviruses (though there's more research to do) so people who have had it are not likely to catch it (or transmit it) during the second wave. But if, as I think we're assuming is the case, this now becomes just another coronavirus that circulates we will need a longer term solution.

Quote from: Josephus on April 04, 2020, 01:31:19 PM
By "this", and I know it's different in different countries, but generally I'm talking about the emergency. Another way of wording the question could be. How long before everyone (who has a job) can go back to the office, and social-distancing laws are relaxed?

When the curve has flattened, and then two weeks from there.  ;)

It might be possible to return to work sooner if by chance we get a working cure.

Quote from: Sheilbh on April 06, 2020, 06:21:00 AM

Quote from: Iormlund on April 06, 2020, 06:17:46 AM

Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2020, 05:56:49 AM
Probably a year or two unless it gets so out of control it just burns through the population in six months.

Even then we don't know if there'll be lasting immunity.

I think the scientists here have said the assumption is it'll be seasonal immunity because that's the norm for other coronaviruses (though there's more research to do) so people who have had it are not likely to catch it (or transmit it) during the second wave. But if, as I think we're assuming is the case, this now becomes just another coronavirus that circulates we will need a longer term solution.

I think we're going to revert to a situation where many parents will have to tell their children about what their grandparents were like. Or that the grandparents often won't live to see the children graduate or become adults.

The other option is to create 'bubble communities' were many elderly and vulnerable peope are kept in bio-secure locations away from the mass of the population.

Yeah, the cocooning/shielding approach.

This is one issue where I think the UK approach is possibly one of the most severe I've heard of, in that I understand we've already told vulnerable people they need to fully self-isolate for 12 weeks. Which is incredibly hard - I've seen a few photos of people taking kids to the windows of their grandparents for their birthdays etc. It's kind-of heart breaking.

But I think you're probably right that we'll possibly see a relaxation (but not back to "normal") for most people and ongoing isolation for the most vulnerable until there's a solution.

I do also wonder about the healthcare impact. There's questions around how long we can economically and socially do a lockdown, but I also wonder how long our healthcare systems can just not be doing essential (but not as essential) outpatient treatments, scheduled surgeries etc?

Alberta released a bunch of modelling data yesterday.

In their most probably scenario, they have us peaking by early-mid May, with it then slowly tailing off by June-July.  The estimate total infections of 800,000 (out of 4.3 million), noting that won't be confirmed cases, just their estimate of total infections.  Estimate total fatalities of 400 to 3100.  Thats assuming the social distancing steps that are in place.

Their estimate on a "do nothing" approach was total infections of 1.6 million, with 16,000 to 32,000 deaths.

What they didn't say though is what happenings if we back off on social distancing - will this all just flare up again?  Are we stuck like this until a vaccine is made?

https://www.alberta.ca/assets/documents/covid-19-case-modelling-projection.pdf

(good charts are about half way through)

Quote from: Barrister on April 09, 2020, 12:28:13 PM
What they didn't say though is what happenings if we back off on social distancing - will this all just flare up again?  Are we stuck like this until a vaccine is made?

https://www.alberta.ca/assets/documents/covid-19-case-modelling-projection.pdf

(good charts are about half way through)

Yeah seems that way. Singapore just went into a second round of lockdown because there was a fresh cluster of 145 new infections that popped up.

Quote from: Barrister on April 09, 2020, 12:28:13 PM
Alberta released a bunch of modelling data yesterday.

In their most probably scenario, they have us peaking by early-mid May, with it then slowly tailing off by June-July.  The estimate total infections of 800,000 (out of 4.3 million), noting that won't be confirmed cases, just their estimate of total infections.  Estimate total fatalities of 400 to 3100.  Thats assuming the social distancing steps that are in place.

Their estimate on a "do nothing" approach was total infections of 1.6 million, with 16,000 to 32,000 deaths.

What they didn't say though is what happenings if we back off on social distancing - will this all just flare up again?  Are we stuck like this until a vaccine is made?

https://www.alberta.ca/assets/documents/covid-19-case-modelling-projection.pdf

(good charts are about half way through)

Dr. Tam was pretty clear about that this morning in her briefing.  Even if the curve goes all the way down to minimal numbers they still expect a second wave of infections in the fall, even with distancing still in place - although she said some of the more restrictive orders might be relaxed somewhat but no concrete examples were given.

We are likely going to be distancing until the vaccine is administered in large numbers.

As for the Poll, if you meant xmas 2021 - sounds about right.

Quote from: Sheilbh on April 09, 2020, 12:17:55 PM
I do also wonder about the healthcare impact. There's questions around how long we can economically and socially do a lockdown, but I also wonder how long our healthcare systems can just not be doing essential (but not as essential) outpatient treatments, scheduled surgeries etc?

On this just saw a report that a number of countries have suspended routine vaccination campaigns to redeploy health workers. I wonder how long that can last before it has an effect/it isn't possible to catch up?

That seems like one of the things, unlike surgery, that could easily be ramped back up once we start to ease restrictions because it won't take up ICU capacity - or am I wrong? :mellow:

Quote from: DGuller on April 04, 2020, 03:27:50 PM
As I said in another thread, I think we're back to normal when everyone is over-supplied with masks and gloves, and they're made mandatory.  I think that will happen fairly quickly, definitely inside of three months.  People would still be freshly infected, and dying, but the risk would be mitigated enough and the spread retarded sufficiently that continued economic shutdown would not be reasonable.

DG, you never struck me as the optimistic type.

Quote from: mongers on January 24, 2021, 11:30:33 AM

Quote from: DGuller on April 04, 2020, 03:27:50 PM
As I said in another thread, I think we're back to normal when everyone is over-supplied with masks and gloves, and they're made mandatory.  I think that will happen fairly quickly, definitely inside of three months.  People would still be freshly infected, and dying, but the risk would be mitigated enough and the spread retarded sufficiently that continued economic shutdown would not be reasonable.

DG, you never struck me as the optimistic type.

I couldn't imagine how much of a stupid issue the masks would become.  Instead of becoming mandatory, a big portion of the population made it a point of not wearing them.

There is an article in the NYTimes that is on point

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/24/us/covid-vaccine-rollout.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Bottom line, in the US, restrictions into the summer are going to be necessary to prevent a spike in infections

Quote from: DGuller on January 24, 2021, 12:34:47 PM

Quote from: mongers on January 24, 2021, 11:30:33 AM

Quote from: DGuller on April 04, 2020, 03:27:50 PM
As I said in another thread, I think we're back to normal when everyone is over-supplied with masks and gloves, and they're made mandatory.  I think that will happen fairly quickly, definitely inside of three months.  People would still be freshly infected, and dying, but the risk would be mitigated enough and the spread retarded sufficiently that continued economic shutdown would not be reasonable.

DG, you never struck me as the optimistic type.

I couldn't imagine how much of a stupid issue the masks would become.  Instead of becoming mandatory, a big portion of the population made it a point of not wearing them.

After three years of it, you couldn't imagine the depths of stupidity the Trumpism virus would infect a chunk of the US population with?

:D

Quote from: mongers on January 24, 2021, 12:50:48 PM
After three years of it, you couldn't imagine the depths of stupidity the Trumpism virus would infect a chunk of the US population with?

:D

I couldn't imagine the stupidity trumping survival instinct.

Quote from: DGuller on January 24, 2021, 01:06:03 PM

Quote from: mongers on January 24, 2021, 12:50:48 PM
After three years of it, you couldn't imagine the depths of stupidity the Trumpism virus would infect a chunk of the US population with?

:D

I couldn't imagine the stupidity trumping survival instinct.

That's where I differ from you, I often assume much of people's behaviour is self-destructive, sometimes intentionally so; many Trump supporters want to see the world crash and burn about them as they face up to their limited remaining lifespan.

Quote from: mongers on January 24, 2021, 01:12:30 PM

Quote from: DGuller on January 24, 2021, 01:06:03 PM

Quote from: mongers on January 24, 2021, 12:50:48 PM
After three years of it, you couldn't imagine the depths of stupidity the Trumpism virus would infect a chunk of the US population with?

:D

I couldn't imagine the stupidity trumping survival instinct.

That's where I differ from you, I often assume much of people's behaviour is self-destructive, sometimes intentionally so; many Trump supporters want to see the world crash and burn about them as they face up to their limited remaining lifespan.

That's where you differ from early 2020 me.  What happened in the last year definitely updated my beliefs about how people work, and what their failure modes are.

Hindsight is 2020.

Quote from: The Brain on January 24, 2021, 01:51:05 PM
Hindsight is 2020.

Hindsight is what some larger mammals need when you're about.

Quote from: mongers on January 24, 2021, 02:11:49 PM

Quote from: The Brain on January 24, 2021, 01:51:05 PM
Hindsight is 2020.

Hindsight is what some larger mammals need when you're about.

katmai knows I'm just playing with my comments.

 :lol:

Quote from: The Brain on January 24, 2021, 02:17:00 PM

Quote from: mongers on January 24, 2021, 02:11:49 PM

Quote from: The Brain on January 24, 2021, 01:51:05 PM
Hindsight is 2020.

Hindsight is what some larger mammals need when you're about.

katmai knows I'm just playing with my comments.

Hindsight is what some larger herbivores need when you're about.

Quote from: Josephus on April 04, 2020, 01:31:19 PM
By "this", and I know it's different in different countries, but generally I'm talking about the emergency. Another way of wording the question could be. How long before everyone (who has a job) can go back to the office, and social-distancing laws are relaxed?

early fall, if we get vaccines. Later, if it keeps getting delayed.

Well, I said we would be back in the offices and have relatively normal lives by July. That was correct. Unfortunately, it didn't last :(

I naively thought that it would be possible for me to have a party on my first wedding anniversary. -_-

I was so overly optimistic. Even after brexit highlighted the amount of idiots in the land.

Quote from: Syt on January 25, 2021, 03:13:10 AM
Well, I said we would be back in the offices and have relatively normal lives by July. That was correct. Unfortunately, it didn't last :(

I voted the same & there was barely anything normal for me last summer.

I was WFH, my kids were home & didn't go to camp. Didn't have any friend or family bbq. My kids didn't have birthday parties for them or from their friends. I bought a bike!

This time, I don't expect a semblance of normal before September 2021.

There is still the possibility that even with vaccines, we could end up with a flu-like situation with yearly shots to keep the mutating disease at bay.