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How Long Will This Last

Started by Josephus, April 04, 2020, 01:31:19 PM

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How long is this going to last?

Before June
6 (16.2%)
BY July 4
7 (18.9%)
By Labour Day (in North America)
7 (18.9%)
We'll all be home for Christmas
9 (24.3%)
When Jaron says it's OK
8 (21.6%)

Total Members Voted: 37

Josephus

By "this", and I know it's different in different countries, but generally I'm talking about the emergency. Another way of wording the question could be. How long before everyone (who has a job) can go back to the office, and social-distancing laws are relaxed?
Civis Romanus Sum<br /><br />"My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world." Jack Layton 1950-2011

celedhring

Normalcy won't come back until there's an effective treatment or vaccine, so give or take one year or autumn at the earliest. Until that, we'll probably be getting social distancing and occasional confinements to contain occasional breakouts, like it's happening in SE/E Asia.

Legbiter

Quote from: Josephus on April 04, 2020, 01:31:19 PM
By "this", and I know it's different in different countries, but generally I'm talking about the emergency. Another way of wording the question could be. How long before everyone (who has a job) can go back to the office, and social-distancing laws are relaxed?

There's not a total lockdown in place here and there's been a huge change in social behavior. Hence the curve is linear here, not exponential. That'll continue until there's a vaccine. So 12-18 months plus however long it takes to produce and distribute the vaccine.
Posted using 100% recycled electrons.

Sheilbh

Quote from: celedhring on April 04, 2020, 01:38:35 PM
Normalcy won't come back until there's an effective treatment or vaccine, so give or take one year or autumn at the earliest. Until that, we'll probably be getting social distancing and occasional confinements to contain occasional breakouts, like it's happening in SE/E Asia.
Yep.
Let's bomb Russia!

Josquius

Labour day or even before then seems reasonable for the full on lock down being eased somewhat.
But totally back to normal? Not until after summer at the earliest.
International travel will be a mess into next year. Various restrictions on national travel up till then.
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fromtia

I think about a year or 18 months until things are back to normal. The next couple of months is the really grim part.
"Just be nice" - James Dalton, Roadhouse.

DGuller

As I said in another thread, I think we're back to normal when everyone is over-supplied with masks and gloves, and they're made mandatory.  I think that will happen fairly quickly, definitely inside of three months.  People would still be freshly infected, and dying, but the risk would be mitigated enough and the spread retarded sufficiently that continued economic shutdown would not be reasonable.

alfred russel

Quote from: DGuller on April 04, 2020, 03:27:50 PM
As I said in another thread, I think we're back to normal when everyone is over-supplied with masks and gloves, and they're made mandatory.  I think that will happen fairly quickly, definitely inside of three months.  People would still be freshly infected, and dying, but the risk would be mitigated enough and the spread retarded sufficiently that continued economic shutdown would not be reasonable.

What is the point of gloves? If you just wear a pair of gloves all day, won't that spread disease as much as your normal hands?

I get the point if you are touching a potentially infected surface and immediately throw the gloves away (without touching the exposed parts of the glove) as is done in a medical setting. But in everyday life?
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

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DGuller

Quote from: alfred russel on April 04, 2020, 03:37:41 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 04, 2020, 03:27:50 PM
As I said in another thread, I think we're back to normal when everyone is over-supplied with masks and gloves, and they're made mandatory.  I think that will happen fairly quickly, definitely inside of three months.  People would still be freshly infected, and dying, but the risk would be mitigated enough and the spread retarded sufficiently that continued economic shutdown would not be reasonable.

What is the point of gloves? If you just wear a pair of gloves all day, won't that spread disease as much as your normal hands?

I get the point if you are touching a potentially infected surface and immediately throw the gloves away (without touching the exposed parts of the glove) as is done in a medical setting. But in everyday life?
The point of wearing the same gloves all day escapes me as well.  Maybe it's psychological, you're less likely to rub your eyes with gloved hands?  I agree that it seems like the point of gloves is to frequently change them.

Sheilbh

Outside of a medical context, isn't it just so you don't have to wash your hands all the time?
Let's bomb Russia!

merithyn

Quote from: Tyr on April 04, 2020, 02:05:44 PM
Labour day or even before then seems reasonable for the full on lock down being eased somewhat.
But totally back to normal? Not until after summer at the earliest.
International travel will be a mess into next year. Various restrictions on national travel up till then.

Labor Day in North America is the first Monday of September. :)

I think that things will finally start to ease up in my state right after Memorial Day, which is the fourth Monday in May.
Yesterday, upon the stair,
I met a man who wasn't there
He wasn't there again today
I wish, I wish he'd go away...

merithyn

Quote from: alfred russel on April 04, 2020, 03:37:41 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 04, 2020, 03:27:50 PM
As I said in another thread, I think we're back to normal when everyone is over-supplied with masks and gloves, and they're made mandatory.  I think that will happen fairly quickly, definitely inside of three months.  People would still be freshly infected, and dying, but the risk would be mitigated enough and the spread retarded sufficiently that continued economic shutdown would not be reasonable.

What is the point of gloves? If you just wear a pair of gloves all day, won't that spread disease as much as your normal hands?

I get the point if you are touching a potentially infected surface and immediately throw the gloves away (without touching the exposed parts of the glove) as is done in a medical setting. But in everyday life?

As gloves aren't available here at all, it's all theoretical for me. But if I had them, I'd wear them when I went grocery shopping and then toss them as soon as I got the groceries inside and put away. As that's the only time I'm going outside, that's the only time I could see wearing them right now.
Yesterday, upon the stair,
I met a man who wasn't there
He wasn't there again today
I wish, I wish he'd go away...

mongers

#12
Quote from: merithyn on April 04, 2020, 04:53:55 PM

As gloves aren't available here at all, it's all theoretical for me. But if I had them, I'd wear them when I went grocery shopping and then toss them as soon as I got the groceries inside and put away. As that's the only time I'm going outside, that's the only time I could see wearing them right now.

Merry have you considered washing some packets with detergent or soap?

I've started doing given the risk of contamination from check-out  conveyor belts or indeed my own cross contaminations whilst out.

For plenty of things like cereals, I open the boxes, then when I've washed properly, take the inner bags and putting them in old pre-virus boxes. 

Is this a little extreme? :unsure:
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

merithyn

Quote from: mongers on April 04, 2020, 04:58:30 PM
Quote from: merithyn on April 04, 2020, 04:53:55 PM

As gloves aren't available here at all, it's all theoretical for me. But if I had them, I'd wear them when I went grocery shopping and then toss them as soon as I got the groceries inside and put away. As that's the only time I'm going outside, that's the only time I could see wearing them right now.

Merry have you considered washing some packets with detergent or soap?

I've started doing if given the risk of contamination from check out  conveyor belts or indeed my own cross contaminations.

Plenty of things like cereals, I'm opening the boxes, then when I've washed properly, taking the inner bags and putting them in old pre-virus boxes. 

Is this a litter extreme? :unsure:

I haven't, but that's not a bad idea. I don't think it's extreme at all. It would alleviate some of my stress, too, because I won't use the food that I buy right away, instead making it wait two days. This way I could have cereal tonight for dinner instead of having to wait for Monday morning. :P
Yesterday, upon the stair,
I met a man who wasn't there
He wasn't there again today
I wish, I wish he'd go away...

celedhring

My aunt washes every single item that enters her house. They are taking care of her husband's father, who's 88, so I can understand the overzealousness, but I can't see me doing myself. I just wash my hands and my phone's screen when coming from outside.