How Long Will This Last

[Monoriu]

Complete normalcy will probably take several years, until a vaccine is available.  Or the virus mutates to a less lethal form.  Whichever comes first.

Hopefully the most stringent restrictions will be lifted in several weeks.  I think there is a lot of pressure to lift them.  As I see it, the universal wearing of surgical masks is reasonably effective in Hong Kong and other places that have this practice.  If this is adopted in the West, and production of masks can keep up, the number of cases and deaths can be kept to a low enough level to enable the relaxation of some of the restrictions.  So far we have ~850 cases and 4 or 5 deaths in four months in one of the most densely packed places on earth, and I still go to restaurants every day. 

But there will be some yo-yoing.  I worked from home in February, then started to go back to the office three days a week in early March.  Then all the students studying in the west came back in mid-March.  The number of cases soared, and I worked from home again.  Even if a place successfully cleans up, the virus may come back because there is a surge somewhere else. 

[PDH]

I personally have given up licking doorknobs for the time being.

[Eddie Teach]

But how long do you think you can keep it up?

[Iormlund]

My aunt washes every single item that enters her house. They are taking care of her husband's father, who's 88, so I can understand the overzealousness, but I can't see me doing myself. I just wash my hands and my phone's screen when coming from outside.

My sister does the shopping and distributes stuff for the family. She's a chemist, so I trust she does a good job. 

In any case I do have a queue (FIFO) for non-perishable items, so it takes me several days to get to them. Fresh stuff (meat, eggs) is cooked, so that should take care of bugs. I've always been a slightly compulsive handwasher, so I don't have to add extra steps now. 

[Admiral Yi]

Voted Labor Day.  I think schools and universities will be open for the fall term.

[jimmy olsen]

Probably a year or two unless it gets so out of control it just burns through the population in six months.

[Iormlund]

Probably a year or two unless it gets so out of control it just burns through the population in six months.

Even then we don't know if there'll be lasting immunity.

[Sheilbh]

Probably a year or two unless it gets so out of control it just burns through the population in six months.

Even then we don't know if there'll be lasting immunity.

I think the scientists here have said the assumption is it'll be seasonal immunity because that's the norm for other coronaviruses (though there's more research to do) so people who have had it are not likely to catch it (or transmit it) during the second wave. But if, as I think we're assuming is the case, this now becomes just another coronavirus that circulates we will need a longer term solution.

[viper37]

By "this", and I know it's different in different countries, but generally I'm talking about the emergency. Another way of wording the question could be. How long before everyone (who has a job) can go back to the office, and social-distancing laws are relaxed?

When the curve has flattened, and then two weeks from there. 

It might be possible to return to work sooner if by chance we get a working cure.

[mongers]

Probably a year or two unless it gets so out of control it just burns through the population in six months.

Even then we don't know if there'll be lasting immunity.

I think the scientists here have said the assumption is it'll be seasonal immunity because that's the norm for other coronaviruses (though there's more research to do) so people who have had it are not likely to catch it (or transmit it) during the second wave. But if, as I think we're assuming is the case, this now becomes just another coronavirus that circulates we will need a longer term solution.

I think we're going to revert to a situation where many parents will have to tell their children about what their grandparents were like. Or that the grandparents often won't live to see the children graduate or become adults.

The other option is to create 'bubble communities' were many elderly and vulnerable peope are kept in bio-secure locations away from the mass of the population.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah, the cocooning/shielding approach.

This is one issue where I think the UK approach is possibly one of the most severe I've heard of, in that I understand we've already told vulnerable people they need to fully self-isolate for 12 weeks. Which is incredibly hard - I've seen a few photos of people taking kids to the windows of their grandparents for their birthdays etc. It's kind-of heart breaking.

But I think you're probably right that we'll possibly see a relaxation (but not back to "normal") for most people and ongoing isolation for the most vulnerable until there's a solution.

I do also wonder about the healthcare impact. There's questions around how long we can economically and socially do a lockdown, but I also wonder how long our healthcare systems can just not be doing essential (but not as essential) outpatient treatments, scheduled surgeries etc?

[Barrister]

Alberta released a bunch of modelling data yesterday.

In their most probably scenario, they have us peaking by early-mid May, with it then slowly tailing off by June-July.  The estimate total infections of 800,000 (out of 4.3 million), noting that won't be confirmed cases, just their estimate of total infections.  Estimate total fatalities of 400 to 3100.  Thats assuming the social distancing steps that are in place.

Their estimate on a "do nothing" approach was total infections of 1.6 million, with 16,000 to 32,000 deaths.

What they didn't say though is what happenings if we back off on social distancing - will this all just flare up again?  Are we stuck like this until a vaccine is made?

https://www.alberta.ca/assets/documents/covid-19-case-modelling-projection.pdf

(good charts are about half way through)

[Legbiter]

What they didn't say though is what happenings if we back off on social distancing - will this all just flare up again?  Are we stuck like this until a vaccine is made?

https://www.alberta.ca/assets/documents/covid-19-case-modelling-projection.pdf

(good charts are about half way through)

Yeah seems that way. Singapore just went into a second round of lockdown because there was a fresh cluster of 145 new infections that popped up.

[crazy canuck]

Alberta released a bunch of modelling data yesterday.

In their most probably scenario, they have us peaking by early-mid May, with it then slowly tailing off by June-July.  The estimate total infections of 800,000 (out of 4.3 million), noting that won't be confirmed cases, just their estimate of total infections.  Estimate total fatalities of 400 to 3100.  Thats assuming the social distancing steps that are in place.

Their estimate on a "do nothing" approach was total infections of 1.6 million, with 16,000 to 32,000 deaths.

What they didn't say though is what happenings if we back off on social distancing - will this all just flare up again?  Are we stuck like this until a vaccine is made?

https://www.alberta.ca/assets/documents/covid-19-case-modelling-projection.pdf

(good charts are about half way through)

Dr. Tam was pretty clear about that this morning in her briefing.  Even if the curve goes all the way down to minimal numbers they still expect a second wave of infections in the fall, even with distancing still in place - although she said some of the more restrictive orders might be relaxed somewhat but no concrete examples were given.

We are likely going to be distancing until the vaccine is administered in large numbers.

As for the Poll, if you meant xmas 2021 - sounds about right.

[Sheilbh]

I do also wonder about the healthcare impact. There's questions around how long we can economically and socially do a lockdown, but I also wonder how long our healthcare systems can just not be doing essential (but not as essential) outpatient treatments, scheduled surgeries etc?

On this just saw a report that a number of countries have suspended routine vaccination campaigns to redeploy health workers. I wonder how long that can last before it has an effect/it isn't possible to catch up?

That seems like one of the things, unlike surgery, that could easily be ramped back up once we start to ease restrictions because it won't take up ICU capacity - or am I wrong?