Just a thought I've had bouncing around. You can certainly see the attraction Putin would see in a Trump presidency in 2016. But you do get the feeling that Puting is perhaps slightly underwhelmed with the response he has seen. There was no grand re-opening to the West under Trump. No lifting of sanctions - indeed sanctions have increased.
Depending on who emerges on the Democratic side - might the Russians flip? I'm particularly thinking of Sanders and his socialism. He honeymooned in the USSR after all!
Please note I'm not saying Bernie Sanders is a Russian agent or would willingly collude with the Russians - but the Russians seem happy to quietly support their preferred candidate even without any formal understanding or agreement.
And Russian involvement in 2016 seemed just as much about animosity towards Clinton as it was affinity for Trump.
I doubt Russia would go with anyone else. Trump is a mother lode even if you assume there was never any intent to collaborate with the Russians. What Putin wants more than anything else is to cripple the US as much as possible. If he succeeds in that, many other problems he has will work themselves out.
Trump is already a well invested in effort. Though sanctions might not have gone away, the systematic dismantling of US power and prestige in the global diplomatic community has been a boon amongst other positives for Russia. I can see China taking up the Democratic contender as a source of investment, but I see zero reason for Russia to stop backing Trump and friends.
Trump is awesome for Putin. But of course supporting Trump's opponent may still be a good idea since it would compromise the opponent if he/she ends up in the White House. If Trump wins all is well, and if the opponent wins the US still has a president that could be said to have won with Russian help.
But Russia doesn't need to actually help Trump's opponent to get that. They can help Trump and if he still loses, push a disinformation campaign claiming they helped the Dems win the presidency. More than enough Republicans would happily go along with and amplify that narrative, even if false.
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on May 03, 2019, 05:36:40 PM
But Russia doesn't need to actually help Trump's opponent to get that. They can help Trump and if he still loses, push a disinformation campaign claiming they helped the Dems win the presidency. More than enough Republicans would happily go along with and amplify that narrative, even if false.
I'm not convinced that a pure post-election disinformation campaign would necessarily fool level heads. A few beans of truth is always good for the brew.
If I were the Russians I would just flood US social media with tons of bullshit that support both sides, sit back, and watch Americans clown on themselves.
I don't think Putin really cares who is President. Just that we continue to divide ourselves and that we pay little to no attention to what they're doing everywhere else.
Quote from: FunkMonk on May 03, 2019, 09:17:00 PM
If I were the Russians I would just flood US social media with tons of bullshit that support both sides, sit back, and watch Americans clown on themselves.
I don't think Putin really cares who is President. Just that we continue to divide ourselves and that we pay little to no attention to what they're doing everywhere else.
No - it was quite clear Putin did NOT want Hillary to be President, due to her time as Secretary of State.
Quote from: Barrister on May 03, 2019, 09:42:04 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on May 03, 2019, 09:17:00 PM
If I were the Russians I would just flood US social media with tons of bullshit that support both sides, sit back, and watch Americans clown on themselves.
I don't think Putin really cares who is President. Just that we continue to divide ourselves and that we pay little to no attention to what they're doing everywhere else.
No - it was quite clear Putin did NOT want Hillary to be President, due to her time as Secretary of State.
After she kindly hit a reset button with him to.
Quote from: Barrister on May 03, 2019, 05:12:14 PM
But you do get the feeling that Puting is perhaps slightly underwhelmed with the response he has seen.
No, I certainly don't get that feeling.
NATO weakened. Check
US turning on its closest allies. Check
No risk of US intervening in Russian sphere of influence. Check
Get to laugh every night at the Americans. Check
What more could he have wanted?
Also, what makes you think that Russia or Putin is in any way a socialist?
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 03, 2019, 11:42:23 PM
Also, what makes you think that Russia or Putin is in any way a socialist?
Putin is not a socialist. But he's not afraid to run under a anti-western banner.
Sanders, even after the fall of communism, has still long supported regimes like Cuba and Venezuela. And he hasn't exactly taken a hard line against Russia (since he's run almost exclusively on domestic issues).
And wat more could Putin have wanted? Lifting sanctions. A "peace deal" in Ukraine that gives him international recognition of his control over Crimea. Putin has done well with Trump, but Trump has been constrained over what he could do on the Russia file. Perhaps a less obviously compromised US President could give him that.
Quote from: Barrister on May 03, 2019, 09:42:04 PM
No - it was quite clear Putin did NOT want Hillary to be President, due to her time as Secretary of State.
This. Without Hillary in the race (I thought that she might try again, but it seems she won't), Russian meddling will probably include some tactics that favor both parties in the general election, even if he does prefer Trump--Putin is smart enough to hedge his bets.
Another Trump victory would plunge the US into 4 more years of WH, congressional and societal chaos, particularly when contrasted to a Biden candidacy.
That would be a bonanza for Putin.
I can confidently predict that Putin will never be angling for a centrist to win.
Has Putin backed left-wing candidates in Europe?
Quote from: Barrister on May 03, 2019, 11:57:40 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 03, 2019, 11:42:23 PM
Also, what makes you think that Russia or Putin is in any way a socialist?
Putin is not a socialist. But he's not afraid to run under a anti-western banner.
Sanders, even after the fall of communism, has still long supported regimes like Cuba and Venezuela. And he hasn't exactly taken a hard line against Russia (since he's run almost exclusively on domestic issues).
And wat more could Putin have wanted? Lifting sanctions. A "peace deal" in Ukraine that gives him international recognition of his control over Crimea. Putin has done well with Trump, but Trump has been constrained over what he could do on the Russia file. Perhaps a less obviously compromised US President could give him that.
Trump has lifted sanctions against Putin's friends
Trump has given Putin a free hand in Ukraine. Putin won't have to invade now.
The idea that getting Trump elected has been anything other than an astounding geopolitical coup for Putin is insane.
No, the US hasn't disbanded in favor of a new Soviet World Order, but the results of Putin's efforts could not have realistically been any better than they have been.
Quote from: Razgovory on May 04, 2019, 02:06:01 AM
Has Putin backed left-wing candidates in Europe?
He has backed a left-wing candidate in South America.
It's all opportunistic given that Putin is, let's say, post-ideological. He mostly supports righties in Europe and whatever stirs the most shit in America. I don't think there's room for leverage with Sanders, though, since he doesn't have shady business dealings abroad.
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on May 04, 2019, 10:04:59 AM
It's all opportunistic given that Putin is, let's say, post-ideological. He mostly supports righties in Europe and whatever stirs the most shit in America. I don't think there's room for leverage with Sanders, though, since he doesn't have shady business dealings abroad.
:yes: Putin seems to believe in very little, besides the need for Russia to be a world power. He'll support whoever he needs to support to destabilize the West or bring countries to his sphere. As it happens, these days it's the far right that can bring explosive instability to Western countries, but he'd probably just as readily support Marxists if that accomplished the same thing.
Quote from: Berkut on May 04, 2019, 08:46:39 AM
The idea that getting Trump elected has been anything other than an astounding geopolitical coup for Putin is insane.
I agree. I do think we need to accept America's own key role in getting there. We've been priming ourselves for a far right self-coup for a couple of decades before Putin was ready to act. He didn't bend us over, we bent ourselves over, Putin was just smart enough to be ready to go when the opening appeared before him.
Quote from: DGuller on May 04, 2019, 11:19:57 AM
:yes: Putin seems to believe in very little, besides the need for Russia to be a world power.
You may know better, but it has seemed to me that Putin is driven by the need to win the war he spent most of his adult life fighting, i.e, the Cold War, and that that is as much about bringing the US down as raising Russia up.
More generally, I don't think Putin was looking for a puppet in the US. Certainly not an incompetent one. He wanted a loose cannon and Trump is the loosest of cannons.
Quote from: Maximus on May 04, 2019, 04:06:25 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 04, 2019, 11:19:57 AM
:yes: Putin seems to believe in very little, besides the need for Russia to be a world power.
You may know better, but it has seemed to me that Putin is driven by the need to win the war he spent most of his adult life fighting, i.e, the Cold War, and that that is as much about bringing the US down as raising Russia up.
My impression is that Putin has no ideology or agendas beyond personal power. Soviet and later Russian power has been a way to achieve that personal power.
My impression is that Putin is a non-ideological person with enormous thirst for personal power, just like for instance Napoleon and Stalin. Any ideology they claim to support is just a vehicle.
Quote from: Barrister on May 03, 2019, 05:12:14 PM
Just a thought I've had bouncing around. You can certainly see the attraction Putin would see in a Trump presidency in 2016. But you do get the feeling that Puting is perhaps slightly underwhelmed with the response he has seen. There was no grand re-opening to the West under Trump. No lifting of sanctions - indeed sanctions have increased.
Yes exactly. If Russia was surreptitiously dictating US foreign policy, then ratcheting up sanctions, withdrawing from the INF treaty, hectoring Merkel about stopping to buy Russian natural gas and increasing American/NATO defense spending looks rather odd for a supposed puppet.
Proof positive that BB developed his "feeling" by viewing some unsavoury right wing social media.
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 05, 2019, 10:58:20 AM
Proof positive that BB developed his "feeling" by viewing some unsavoury right wing social media.
He probably saw a Russian meme on his Facebook page and became an unwitting accomplice.
Quote from: Legbiter on May 05, 2019, 09:34:40 AM
Quote from: Barrister on May 03, 2019, 05:12:14 PM
Just a thought I've had bouncing around. You can certainly see the attraction Putin would see in a Trump presidency in 2016. But you do get the feeling that Puting is perhaps slightly underwhelmed with the response he has seen. There was no grand re-opening to the West under Trump. No lifting of sanctions - indeed sanctions have increased.
Yes exactly. If Russia was surreptitiously dictating US foreign policy, then ratcheting up sanctions, withdrawing from the INF treaty, hectoring Merkel about stopping to buy Russian natural gas and increasing American/NATO defense spending looks rather odd for a supposed puppet.
Not particularly. The sanctions exist despite Trump. The Russians aren't that keen on the IMF treaty and harassing NATO partners isn't exactly anti-Russia.
Quote from: Razgovory on May 05, 2019, 12:11:39 PMNot particularly. The sanctions exist despite Trump. The Russians aren't that keen on the IMF treaty and harassing NATO partners isn't exactly anti-Russia.
If Germany and the West stop buying Russian gas then they'll have to become a vassal state of China in order to survive.
The US has also repeatedly bombed Russia's Syrian client, killed at least hundreds of Russian mercenaries there and sold weapons to the Ukraine. Right now the US and Russia are seemingly squaring off over Venezuela. If all of the above is insufficient what exactly does a "tough on Russia" position look like to you?
You could even criticize Trump for launching a new Cold War at this point.
Quote from: Legbiter on May 05, 2019, 01:12:11 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on May 05, 2019, 12:11:39 PMNot particularly. The sanctions exist despite Trump. The Russians aren't that keen on the IMF treaty and harassing NATO partners isn't exactly anti-Russia.
If Germany and the West stop buying Russian gas then they'll have to become a vassal state of China in order to survive.
The US has also repeatedly bombed Russia's Syrian client, killed at least hundreds of Russian mercenaries there and sold weapons to the Ukraine. Right now the US and Russia are seemingly squaring off over Venezuela. If all of the above is insufficient what exactly does a "tough on Russia" position look like to you?
You could even criticize Trump for launching a new Cold War at this point.
China is the only other country in the world that produces natural gas? :hmm:
I think you are missing the point. Trump is good for Russia because of the chaos he creates, not because he would be some kind of dependable friend to Putin. Trump is not a reliable friend to anybody that I can see.
Quote from: Legbiter on May 05, 2019, 01:12:11 PM
If Germany and the West stop buying Russian gas then they'll have to become a vassal state of China in order to survive.
?
China is a big gas importer not exporter.
Quote from: Valmy on May 05, 2019, 01:21:04 PMI think you are missing the point. Trump is good for Russia because of the chaos he creates, not because he would be some kind of dependable friend to Putin. Trump is not a reliable friend to anybody that I can see.
The "chaos". Yes he's mean on Twitter I guess. His victory is responsible for the hilarious wholesale nervous breakdown of the Democratic political and media class, for sure. For their sake he better not get a second term because I'd not be surprised to see them start offing themselves en masse if he did.
The economy hums along nicely, no major foreign wars yet and the sun yet shines. We were supposed to have economic collapse, nuclear war, an insane Russian puppet, etc.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 05, 2019, 01:29:18 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on May 05, 2019, 01:12:11 PM
If Germany and the West stop buying Russian gas then they'll have to become a vassal state of China in order to survive.
?
China is a big gas importer not exporter.
Russians are building at least one major pipeline to China.
QuoteGazprom's Power of Siberia natural gas pipeline from Russia to China is 93 percent complete, the Russian gas giant said in an update on its major projects.
A total of 2,010 kilometers (1,249 miles) of pipes are laid for the Power of Siberia gas pipeline between Yakutia and the Russian-Chinese border, or on 93 percent of the route's length, Gazprom said in a statement.
The natural gas pipeline is expected to start sending gas to China at the end of 2019 and its completion is among Gazprom's top priorities.
The two-string submerged crossing of the Power of Siberia pipeline under the Amur River is 78 percent complete, and the Atamanskaya compressor station adjacent to the border is also under construction, the Russian company says.
Gazprom has a 30-year contract with CNPC for the supply of an annual 1.3 trillion cu ft of natural gas via the infrastructure.
This year, Gazprom plans to invest nearly US$3.2 billion (218 billion Russian rubles) in the pipeline project, up from the US$2.3 billion (158.8 billion rubles) investment last year, according to Russia's TASS news agency.
Gazprom and CNPC have also discussed another pipeline from Russia to China via the western route—the so-called Power of Siberia 2 pipeline—that would source gas from Western Siberian gas fields, but little progress has been made regarding the specifics of this project.
Gazprom is dominating gas supplies to many European markets while it vies to meet the surging Chinese natural gas demand as the country is in the middle of a massive switch from coal-fired to gas-fired heating in millions of homes.
Although Chinese companies are looking to boost domestic natural gas production, local production won't come even close to meeting surging demand, and China is expected to increasingly rely on gas imports.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russias-Huge-Natural-Gas-Pipeline-To-China-Nearly-Complete.html (https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russias-Huge-Natural-Gas-Pipeline-To-China-Nearly-Complete.html)
Russia basically wants chaos and division.
They will support both sides and try and make the race as bloody and nasty as possible.
Already I'm sure see it a fair bit in British left wing groups. An awful lot of very suspicious accounts slagging off brexiters to a standard text as soon as there is a post. They want hate from both sides.
Quote from: Legbiter on May 05, 2019, 01:12:11 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on May 05, 2019, 12:11:39 PMNot particularly. The sanctions exist despite Trump. The Russians aren't that keen on the IMF treaty and harassing NATO partners isn't exactly anti-Russia.
If Germany and the West stop buying Russian gas then they'll have to become a vassal state of China in order to survive.
The US has also repeatedly bombed Russia's Syrian client, killed at least hundreds of Russian mercenaries there and sold weapons to the Ukraine. Right now the US and Russia are seemingly squaring off over Venezuela. If all of the above is insufficient what exactly does a "tough on Russia" position look like to you?
You could even criticize Trump for launching a new Cold War at this point.
Trump's attack on Germany are not inspired by policy. It's just another example of Trump lashing out projecting his problems onto someone else. Trump did launch a few limited strikes on Syria but has also deployed ground troops and air strikes against Syria's enemies.
Trump is not squaring off with Russia in Ukraine.
Quote from: Legbiter on May 05, 2019, 01:48:43 PM
Russians are building at least one major pipeline to China.
Ok. But who is the vassal state to who in this scenario?
QuoteAlthough Chinese companies are looking to boost domestic natural gas production, local production won't come even close to meeting surging demand, and China is expected to increasingly rely on gas imports.
Exactly.
Ah, the classic Trumpeter "how could the sun is still be shining if Trump is crook?" red herring. Thanks, Legbiter. I needed the laugh.
Quote from: Barrister on May 03, 2019, 11:57:40 PM
And wat more could Putin have wanted? Lifting sanctions. A "peace deal" in Ukraine that gives him international recognition of his control over Crimea. Putin has done well with Trump, but Trump has been constrained over what he could do on the Russia file. Perhaps a less obviously compromised US President could give him that.
Does Putin even want these things?
Seems to me the biggest danger to Putin is the easing of Russia into the borglike EU culture / westernization. Where some of the best and brightest (and ultimately wealthiest) work for multinationals, and the younger generations lack both a strong sense of nationalism and a devotion to traditional values.
Travel restrictions and anti-Russian sanctions help in this regard. The economy is hurt, which is presumably bad, but the country won't be that poor due to its natural resources, and resource wealth is more easily politically controlled than almost any other industry.
Quote from: alfred russel on May 05, 2019, 05:23:19 PM
Does Putin even want these things?
Seems to me the biggest danger to Putin is the easing of Russia into the borglike EU culture / westernization. Where some of the best and brightest (and ultimately wealthiest) work for multinationals, and the younger generations lack both a strong sense of nationalism and a devotion to traditional values.
Travel restrictions and anti-Russian sanctions help in this regard. The economy is hurt, which is presumably bad, but the country won't be that poor due to its natural resources, and resource wealth is more easily politically controlled than almost any other industry.
Russia already has a westernized urban yuppitocracy, which is totally marginalized. He just needs to keep the extraction workers, the security services, the oligarchs, and the pensioners on side. All those groups rely to a certain extent on distribution of spoils, which is a function of economic performance. Sanctions may not be killing him but they're giving him less cards to play.
Quote from: Tyr on May 05, 2019, 02:08:24 PM
Russia basically wants chaos and division.
They will support both sides and try and make the race as bloody and nasty as possible.
Already I'm sure see it a fair bit in British left wing groups. An awful lot of very suspicious accounts slagging off brexiters to a standard text as soon as there is a post. They want hate from both sides.
Yep, agreed. They must be reveling in the division and worsening political scene in the US over the Russian collusion stuff, which it seems that they may have had a bigger part in creating in the first place.
Quote from: Legbiter on May 05, 2019, 01:35:07 PM
Quote from: Valmy on May 05, 2019, 01:21:04 PMI think you are missing the point. Trump is good for Russia because of the chaos he creates, not because he would be some kind of dependable friend to Putin. Trump is not a reliable friend to anybody that I can see.
The "chaos". Yes he's mean on Twitter I guess. His victory is responsible for the hilarious wholesale nervous breakdown of the Democratic political and media class, for sure. For their sake he better not get a second term because I'd not be surprised to see them start offing themselves en masse if he did.
The economy hums along nicely, no major foreign wars yet and the sun yet shines. We were supposed to have economic collapse, nuclear war, an insane Russian puppet, etc.
Being on twitter is what all the pols are doing. Yeah, he can be bombastic sometimes, but I like that he fights back. I remember others, like Bush and Romney, rarely fought back like they were taking the high road while being lambasted and slurred with little or futile response. 2020 candidates are all on twitter, have to be to reach more of an audience.
When Trump was elected some economists, such as Krugman, predicted an immediate crash in the world economy. The economy won't continue on a tear like this for ever but it's been a great start. Previously we were told that tepid growth was the new norm, and that manufacturing and other jobs weren't coming back. I had been annoyed with that view since the Bush admin, as I really felt the US could do so much better.
Then there were cries of nuclear war with NK. Instead Trump is taking a different tack in negotiations than the last several admins. A tough road that may not pan out, but it's worth it to try something different. The last several previous admins gave in on sanctions and trough stances in the vain hope that maybe" that time" would accede to work with the west. Never happened of course.
Quote from: Legbiter on May 05, 2019, 01:35:07 PM
Quote from: Valmy on May 05, 2019, 01:21:04 PMI think you are missing the point. Trump is good for Russia because of the chaos he creates, not because he would be some kind of dependable friend to Putin. Trump is not a reliable friend to anybody that I can see.
The "chaos". Yes he's mean on Twitter I guess. His victory is responsible for the hilarious wholesale nervous breakdown of the Democratic political and media class, for sure. For their sake he better not get a second term because I'd not be surprised to see them start offing themselves en masse if he did.
The economy hums along nicely, no major foreign wars yet and the sun yet shines. We were supposed to have economic collapse, nuclear war, an insane Russian puppet, etc.
Weakening of NATO and US international agreements. He is an avid nationalist who has a disdain for the type of international cooperation that Russia opposes. Him being in charge is a wildcard. That was what I mean.
I don't see the nervous breakdown. The Democrats gained seats. The media is making a zillion dollars. I don't really appreciate the strawman and personal attack here that I am hysterical over Trump. That is bullshit and you know it. So why waste my time with this kind of dishonest garbage?
Quote from: KRonn on May 05, 2019, 08:02:43 PM
Then there were cries of nuclear war with NK. Instead Trump is taking a different tack in negotiations than the last several admins. A tough road that may not pan out, but it's worth it to try something different. The last several previous admins gave in on sanctions and trough stances in the vain hope that maybe" that time" would accede to work with the west. Never happened of course.
Well that is not entirely true. We have tried various carrots over the years. South Korea has to.
QuoteWhen Trump was elected some economists, such as Krugman, predicted an immediate crash in the world economy. The economy won't continue on a tear like this for ever but it's been a great start. Previously we were told that tepid growth was the new norm, and that manufacturing and other jobs weren't coming back. I had been annoyed with that view since the Bush admin, as I really felt the US could do so much better.
Well here is hoping you are right and Trump creates a great economy with numerous jobs for everybody. It seems to me that this tear is being done by reckless credit card spending by doing a giant tax cut funded by nothing and puts our entire future in danger. But that is hardly new but at least the last time we did that it was supposed to be supported by a budget surplus and to prevent a major international economic collapse. Just now we seemed to do it for no reason at all. But hopefully I am wrong and you are right.
Certainly our abiity to carry debt and deficits goes way beyond what I ever would have predicted.
Quote from: KRonn on May 05, 2019, 07:31:22 PM
Quote from: Tyr on May 05, 2019, 02:08:24 PM
Russia basically wants chaos and division.
They will support both sides and try and make the race as bloody and nasty as possible.
Already I'm sure see it a fair bit in British left wing groups. An awful lot of very suspicious accounts slagging off brexiters to a standard text as soon as there is a post. They want hate from both sides.
Yep, agreed. They must be reveling in the division and worsening political scene in the US over the Russian collusion stuff, which it seems that they may have had a bigger part in creating in the first place.
So by being concerned with Russian influence and doing reasonable due diligence to protect ourselves we are in fact playing into their hands? I suppose. But the alternative is to just pretend nothing is happening at all, which would be a larger folly in my eyes.
But feel free to enlighten me as to your position.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 05, 2019, 03:22:35 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on May 05, 2019, 01:48:43 PM
Russians are building at least one major pipeline to China.
Ok. But who is the vassal state to who in this scenario?
QuoteAlthough Chinese companies are looking to boost domestic natural gas production, local production won't come even close to meeting surging demand, and China is expected to increasingly rely on gas imports.
Exactly.
Yeah ok Legbiter. The entire West is totally dependent on Russia to not be a vassal to Chinese natural gas. Seems more likely we will be selling natural gas to them.
Quote from: Valmy on May 05, 2019, 08:48:02 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on May 05, 2019, 01:35:07 PM
Quote from: Valmy on May 05, 2019, 01:21:04 PMI think you are missing the point. Trump is good for Russia because of the chaos he creates, not because he would be some kind of dependable friend to Putin. Trump is not a reliable friend to anybody that I can see.
The "chaos". Yes he's mean on Twitter I guess. His victory is responsible for the hilarious wholesale nervous breakdown of the Democratic political and media class, for sure. For their sake he better not get a second term because I'd not be surprised to see them start offing themselves en masse if he did.
The economy hums along nicely, no major foreign wars yet and the sun yet shines. We were supposed to have economic collapse, nuclear war, an insane Russian puppet, etc.
Weakening of NATO and US international agreements. He is an avid nationalist who has a disdain for the type of international cooperation that Russia opposes. Him being in charge is a wildcard. That was what I mean.
I don't see the nervous breakdown. The Democrats gained seats. The media is making a zillion dollars. I don't really appreciate the strawman and personal attack here that I am hysterical over Trump. That is bullshit and you know it. So why waste my time with this kind of dishonest garbage?
Why do you always take generalized statements as personal attacks?
Quote from: Valmy on May 05, 2019, 08:52:10 PM
Certainly our abiity to carry debt and deficits goes way beyond what I ever would have predicted.
Bubbles always look good until they don't.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on May 05, 2019, 10:13:13 PM
Quote from: Valmy on May 05, 2019, 08:48:02 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on May 05, 2019, 01:35:07 PM
Quote from: Valmy on May 05, 2019, 01:21:04 PMI think you are missing the point. Trump is good for Russia because of the chaos he creates, not because he would be some kind of dependable friend to Putin. Trump is not a reliable friend to anybody that I can see.
The "chaos". Yes he's mean on Twitter I guess. His victory is responsible for the hilarious wholesale nervous breakdown of the Democratic political and media class, for sure. For their sake he better not get a second term because I'd not be surprised to see them start offing themselves en masse if he did.
The economy hums along nicely, no major foreign wars yet and the sun yet shines. We were supposed to have economic collapse, nuclear war, an insane Russian puppet, etc.
Weakening of NATO and US international agreements. He is an avid nationalist who has a disdain for the type of international cooperation that Russia opposes. Him being in charge is a wildcard. That was what I mean.
I don't see the nervous breakdown. The Democrats gained seats. The media is making a zillion dollars. I don't really appreciate the strawman and personal attack here that I am hysterical over Trump. That is bullshit and you know it. So why waste my time with this kind of dishonest garbage?
Why do you always take generalized statements as personal attacks?
I don't always. But Legbiter has gone on like this for literally years. Then I point out how I don't think it is true. And he agrees. And then he does it again. And then I point out how I don't think it is true. And he agrees. And then he does it again. And then I point out how I don't think it is true. And he agrees. And then he does it again. And then I point out how I don't think it is true. And he agrees. And then he does it again.
So after awhile I don't think he might be completely forthright.
And anyway that was not a generalized statement. He was taking something I said and characterizing it as irrational. I am not sure how that is not a personal attack.
Quote from: grumbler on May 05, 2019, 10:19:48 PM
Bubbles always look good until they don't.
Humanity is a bubble. Our planet is destined to be swallowed by the sun, and our universe is doomed to either expand into nothingness or collapse in a giant fireball. Though I doubt humanity will survive long enough to perish in any of the previously mentioned events.
We seem to be thinking about *slightly* different time scales.
Fair analogy that modern civilization is a bubble.
I've always said we're in a race against time to get our civilization space borne as we've long passed the point of no return. Either we expand life now or we never do.
But yeah. Different subject.
If only it were a race against thyme. Then we might win. :(
Quote from: The Brain on May 06, 2019, 09:58:17 AM
If only it were a race against thyme. Then we might win. :(
Not a chance. Parsley, sage and rosemary are far too slow.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 06, 2019, 09:38:45 AM
We seem to be thinking about *slightly* different time scales.
Yeah, I don't think the time scales Yi is dealing with have much if any impact on next year's unemployment rate or whether or not any of us can make our mortgage payments.
Quote from: alfred russel on May 06, 2019, 09:01:49 AM
Quote from: grumbler on May 05, 2019, 10:19:48 PM
Bubbles always look good until they don't.
Humanity is a bubble. Our planet is destined to be swallowed by the sun, and our universe is doomed to either expand into nothingness or collapse in a giant fireball. Though I doubt humanity will survive long enough to perish in any of the previously mentioned events.
Whoosh
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 06, 2019, 05:47:12 PM
Quote from: The Brain on May 06, 2019, 09:58:17 AM
If only it were a race against thyme. Then we might win. :(
Not a chance. Parsley, sage and rosemary are far too slow.
:(