If/when Russia interferes in 2020 election... are we sure it's to favour Trump?

[The Minsky Moment]

If Germany and the West stop buying Russian gas then they'll have to become a vassal state of China in order to survive.

?
China is a big gas importer not exporter.

[Legbiter]

I think you are missing the point. Trump is good for Russia because of the chaos he creates, not because he would be some kind of dependable friend to Putin. Trump is not a reliable friend to anybody that I can see.

The "chaos". Yes he's mean on Twitter I guess. His victory is responsible for the hilarious wholesale nervous breakdown of the Democratic political and media class, for sure. For their sake he better not get a second term because I'd not be surprised to see them start offing themselves en masse if he did.

The economy hums along nicely, no major foreign wars yet and the sun yet shines. We were supposed to have economic collapse, nuclear war, an insane Russian puppet, etc.

[Legbiter]

If Germany and the West stop buying Russian gas then they'll have to become a vassal state of China in order to survive.

?
China is a big gas importer not exporter.

Russians are building at least one major pipeline to China.

Gazprom's Power of Siberia natural gas pipeline from Russia to China is 93 percent complete, the Russian gas giant said in an update on its major projects.

A total of 2,010 kilometers (1,249 miles) of pipes are laid for the Power of Siberia gas pipeline between Yakutia and the Russian-Chinese border, or on 93 percent of the route's length, Gazprom said in a statement.

The natural gas pipeline is expected to start sending gas to China at the end of 2019 and its completion is among Gazprom's top priorities.

The two-string submerged crossing of the Power of Siberia pipeline under the Amur River is 78 percent complete, and the Atamanskaya compressor station adjacent to the border is also under construction, the Russian company says.

Gazprom has a 30-year contract with CNPC for the supply of an annual 1.3 trillion cu ft of natural gas via the infrastructure.

This year, Gazprom plans to invest nearly US$3.2 billion (218 billion Russian rubles) in the pipeline project, up from the US$2.3 billion (158.8 billion rubles) investment last year, according to Russia's TASS news agency.

Gazprom and CNPC have also discussed another pipeline from Russia to China via the western route—the so-called Power of Siberia 2 pipeline—that would source gas from Western Siberian gas fields, but little progress has been made regarding the specifics of this project.

Gazprom is dominating gas supplies to many European markets while it vies to meet the surging Chinese natural gas demand as the country is in the middle of a massive switch from coal-fired to gas-fired heating in millions of homes.

Although Chinese companies are looking to boost domestic natural gas production, local production won't come even close to meeting surging demand, and China is expected to increasingly rely on gas imports.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russias-Huge-Natural-Gas-Pipeline-To-China-Nearly-Complete.html

[Josquius]

Russia basically wants chaos and division.
They will support both sides and try and make the race as bloody and nasty as possible.
Already I'm sure see it a fair bit in British left wing groups. An awful lot of very suspicious accounts slagging off brexiters to a standard text as soon as there is a post. They want hate from both sides.

[Razgovory]

Not particularly.  The sanctions exist despite Trump.  The Russians aren't that keen on the IMF treaty and harassing NATO partners isn't exactly anti-Russia.

If Germany and the West stop buying Russian gas then they'll have to become a vassal state of China in order to survive.

The US has also repeatedly bombed Russia's Syrian client, killed at least hundreds of Russian mercenaries there and sold weapons to the Ukraine. Right now the US and Russia are seemingly squaring off over Venezuela. If all of the above is insufficient what exactly does a "tough on Russia" position look like to you?

You could even criticize Trump for launching a new Cold War at this point.

Trump's attack on Germany are not inspired by policy.  It's just another example of Trump lashing out projecting his problems onto someone else.  Trump did launch a few limited strikes on Syria but has also deployed ground troops and air strikes against Syria's enemies.

Trump is not squaring off with Russia in Ukraine.

[The Minsky Moment]

Russians are building at least one major pipeline to China.

Ok.  But who is the vassal state to who in this scenario?

Although Chinese companies are looking to boost domestic natural gas production, local production won't come even close to meeting surging demand, and China is expected to increasingly rely on gas imports.

Exactly.

[grumbler]

Ah, the classic Trumpeter "how could the sun is still be shining if Trump is crook?" red herring.   Thanks, Legbiter.  I needed the laugh.

[alfred russel]

And wat more could Putin have wanted?  Lifting sanctions.  A "peace deal" in Ukraine that gives him international recognition of his control over Crimea.  Putin has done well with Trump, but Trump has been constrained over what he could do on the Russia file.  Perhaps a less obviously compromised US President could give him that.

Does Putin even want these things?

Seems to me the biggest danger to Putin is the easing of Russia into the borglike EU culture / westernization. Where some of the best and brightest (and ultimately wealthiest) work for multinationals, and the younger generations lack both a strong sense of nationalism and a devotion to traditional values.

Travel restrictions and anti-Russian sanctions help in this regard. The economy is hurt, which is presumably bad, but the country won't be that poor due to its natural resources, and resource wealth is more easily politically controlled than almost any other industry.

[Admiral Yi]

Does Putin even want these things?

Seems to me the biggest danger to Putin is the easing of Russia into the borglike EU culture / westernization. Where some of the best and brightest (and ultimately wealthiest) work for multinationals, and the younger generations lack both a strong sense of nationalism and a devotion to traditional values.

Travel restrictions and anti-Russian sanctions help in this regard. The economy is hurt, which is presumably bad, but the country won't be that poor due to its natural resources, and resource wealth is more easily politically controlled than almost any other industry.

Russia already has a westernized urban yuppitocracy, which is totally marginalized.  He just needs to keep the extraction workers, the security services, the oligarchs, and the pensioners on side.  All those groups rely to a certain extent on distribution of spoils, which is a function of economic performance.  Sanctions may not be killing him but they're giving him less cards to play.

[KRonn]

Russia basically wants chaos and division.
They will support both sides and try and make the race as bloody and nasty as possible.
Already I'm sure see it a fair bit in British left wing groups. An awful lot of very suspicious accounts slagging off brexiters to a standard text as soon as there is a post. They want hate from both sides.

Yep, agreed. They must be reveling in the division and worsening political scene in the US over the Russian collusion stuff, which it seems that they may have had a bigger part in creating in the first place.

[KRonn]

I think you are missing the point. Trump is good for Russia because of the chaos he creates, not because he would be some kind of dependable friend to Putin. Trump is not a reliable friend to anybody that I can see.

The "chaos". Yes he's mean on Twitter I guess. His victory is responsible for the hilarious wholesale nervous breakdown of the Democratic political and media class, for sure. For their sake he better not get a second term because I'd not be surprised to see them start offing themselves en masse if he did.

The economy hums along nicely, no major foreign wars yet and the sun yet shines. We were supposed to have economic collapse, nuclear war, an insane Russian puppet, etc.

Being on twitter is what all the pols are doing. Yeah, he can be bombastic sometimes, but I like that he fights back. I remember others, like Bush and Romney, rarely fought back like they were taking the high road while being lambasted and slurred with little or futile response.  2020 candidates are all on twitter, have to be to reach more of an audience.

When Trump was elected some economists, such as Krugman, predicted an immediate crash in the world economy. The economy won't continue on a tear like this for ever but it's been a great start. Previously we were told that tepid growth was the new norm, and that manufacturing and other jobs weren't coming back. I had been annoyed with that view since the Bush admin, as I really felt the US could do so much better.

Then there were cries of nuclear war with NK. Instead Trump is taking a different tack in negotiations than the last several admins. A tough road that may not pan out, but it's worth it to try something different. The last several previous admins gave in on sanctions and trough stances in the vain hope that maybe" that time"  would accede to work with the west. Never happened of course.

[Valmy]

I think you are missing the point. Trump is good for Russia because of the chaos he creates, not because he would be some kind of dependable friend to Putin. Trump is not a reliable friend to anybody that I can see.

The "chaos". Yes he's mean on Twitter I guess. His victory is responsible for the hilarious wholesale nervous breakdown of the Democratic political and media class, for sure. For their sake he better not get a second term because I'd not be surprised to see them start offing themselves en masse if he did.

The economy hums along nicely, no major foreign wars yet and the sun yet shines. We were supposed to have economic collapse, nuclear war, an insane Russian puppet, etc.

Weakening of NATO and US international agreements. He is an avid nationalist who has a disdain for the type of international cooperation that Russia opposes. Him being in charge is a wildcard. That was what I mean.

I don't see the nervous breakdown. The Democrats gained seats. The media is making a zillion dollars. I don't really appreciate the strawman and personal attack here that I am hysterical over Trump. That is bullshit and you know it. So why waste my time with this kind of dishonest garbage?

[Valmy]

Then there were cries of nuclear war with NK. Instead Trump is taking a different tack in negotiations than the last several admins. A tough road that may not pan out, but it's worth it to try something different. The last several previous admins gave in on sanctions and trough stances in the vain hope that maybe" that time"  would accede to work with the west. Never happened of course.

Well that is not entirely true. We have tried various carrots over the years. South Korea has to.

When Trump was elected some economists, such as Krugman, predicted an immediate crash in the world economy. The economy won't continue on a tear like this for ever but it's been a great start. Previously we were told that tepid growth was the new norm, and that manufacturing and other jobs weren't coming back. I had been annoyed with that view since the Bush admin, as I really felt the US could do so much better.

Well here is hoping you are right and Trump creates a great economy with numerous jobs for everybody. It seems to me that this tear is being done by reckless credit card spending by doing a giant tax cut funded by nothing and puts our entire future in danger. But that is hardly new but at least the last time we did that it was supposed to be supported by a budget surplus and to prevent a major international economic collapse. Just now we seemed to do it for no reason at all. But hopefully I am wrong and you are right.

Certainly our abiity to carry debt and deficits goes way beyond what I ever would have predicted.

[Valmy]

Russia basically wants chaos and division.
They will support both sides and try and make the race as bloody and nasty as possible.
Already I'm sure see it a fair bit in British left wing groups. An awful lot of very suspicious accounts slagging off brexiters to a standard text as soon as there is a post. They want hate from both sides.

Yep, agreed. They must be reveling in the division and worsening political scene in the US over the Russian collusion stuff, which it seems that they may have had a bigger part in creating in the first place.

So by being concerned with Russian influence and doing reasonable due diligence to protect ourselves we are in fact playing into their hands? I suppose. But the alternative is to just pretend nothing is happening at all, which would be a larger folly in my eyes.

But feel free to enlighten me as to your position.

[Valmy]

Russians are building at least one major pipeline to China.

Ok.  But who is the vassal state to who in this scenario?

Although Chinese companies are looking to boost domestic natural gas production, local production won't come even close to meeting surging demand, and China is expected to increasingly rely on gas imports.

Exactly.

Yeah ok Legbiter. The entire West is totally dependent on Russia to not be a vassal to Chinese natural gas. Seems more likely we will be selling natural gas to them.