I thought we had a catch all thread for German politics. Anyways.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/18/afd-politician-says-germany-should-stop-atoning-for-nazi-crimes
QuoteAfD politician says Germany should stop atoning for Nazi crimes
A politician from the rightwing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has broken with the country's postwar political consensus by calling for a "180-degree turn" from the tradition of remembering and atoning for the Nazi era.
In a speech in a beer hall in Dresden, Björn Höcke, who leads the party in the eastern state of Thuringia, railed against Germany's decade-long tradition of acknowledging the crimes of the National Socialist era, describing the Holocaust memorial in Berlin as a "monument of shame".
"They wanted to cut off our roots and with the re-education that began in 1945, they nearly managed," Höcke said. "Until now, our mental state continues to be that of a totally defeated people. We Germans are the only people in the world that have planted a monument of shame in the heart of their capital."
The Memorial to the Murdered Jews of Europe, a large sloping field covered in austere slabs of concrete, was unveiled in 2005 and is located close to the German parliament and the Brandenburg Gate.
During the second world war Germany was responsible for the murder of more than 6 million Jews and other minorities.
Höcke, a former history teacher, also complained that German schoolchildren were supposedly not taught about the country's scientific and artistic achievements, and that German history was made to look "mean and ridiculous". "That cannot and must not continue," he added, which was greeted with a standing ovation and chants of "Germany, Germany" from his audience.
The event was organised by his party's youth organisation, but a video shows the audience was filled with elderly supporters.
The provocation comes before a meeting of European far-right parties in Koblenz on Satuday, organised by the European parliament's Europe of Nations and Freedom group.
Though the AfD leader, Frauke Petry, threatened to resign in the case of a rightward lurch before its party conference last year, she has continued to tolerate Höcke, seen as the figurehead of the party's nationalist wing.
An AfD strategy paper leaked to the press last December called for "carefully planned provocations" in the run-up to elections in September, leading to rushed retaliations from other parties. The more the AfD was stigmatised as a result, the paper suggested, "the more positive for the party's profile".
Current polls have the rightwing populists on 11-15%, behind Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic party and the Social Democratic party. In his speech, Höcke said he was aiming for the party to get "51% in this country", or a senior role in a coalition with "one of the establishment parties after it has gone through a cathartic purgatory".
The Central Council of Jews in Germany condemned the speech. Its president, Josef Schuster, said: "With these antisemitic and highly misanthropic comments, the AfD is showing its true face. I would have never dared to imagine that it would be possible for a politician to say such things 70 years after the Shoah."
The German vice chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel, said: "Björn Höcke despises the Germany I am proud of. Never, never ever must we allow the demagogy of a Björn Höcke to go unchallenged. Not as Germans, and especially not as Social Democrats."
At the event he also likened the Dresden bombing to the nuclear strikes on Japan and called Weizsäcker's milestone speech of 8th May 1985 (see here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_von_Weizs%C3%A4cker#First_term_.281984.E2.80.9389.29) a speech against the German people.
Höcke is a bit infamous now, not least because his speech about the breeding habits of Africans: http://www.dw.com/en/germanys-afd-distances-itself-from-h%C3%B6ckes-almost-racist-remarks/a-18917049
What's striking to me is not so much what he says. It's that I know (at least from my old home in North Germany) many who agree with what he says, but know not to say it in polite company or in public. And it's not uneducated, unemployed drunks. It's enterpreneurs, lawyers, marketing consultants, accountants, programmers, business analysts, and other "decent" people who wait for such a discourse to become normalized.
QuoteHöcke, a former history teacher, also complained that German schoolchildren were supposedly not taught about the country's scientific and artistic achievements, and that German history was made to look "mean and ridiculous". "That cannot and must not continue," he added, which was greeted with a standing ovation and chants of "Germany, Germany" from his audience.
Well that's not good.
Germans are temperamentally unable to just go kinda nationalistic.
Sorta turned on.
Those people never do anything in moderation.
So, your next Chancellor then?
I would be so for German militarization and massive rearmament, just to piss of the Russians and their GOPee lapdogs, if it weren't for the fact that we'd just have to go over there and kill them again.
Can I be: inspector general of the panzer troops?
Quote from: CountDeMoney on January 18, 2017, 09:47:16 PM
I would be so for German militarization and massive rearmament, just to piss of the Russians and their GOPee lapdogs, if it weren't for the fact that we'd just have to go over there and kill them again.
The French would save us.
Quote from: 11B4V on January 18, 2017, 10:33:43 PM
The French would save us.
I know where you're going with this, and don't even.
Interesting that similar academic arguments from the Historikerstreit era would have been totally off-limits for mainstream politics in West Germany thirty years ago, but not today.
Was reading today about 1000 Muslims supposedly storming and burning the oldest church in a German city at the new year... Which was promptly dismissed by the police as bullshit.
Wonder if the same populist fake news crap will infect Germany in their election
Quote from: Tyr on January 19, 2017, 03:28:43 PM
Was reading today about 1000 Muslims supposedly storming and burning the oldest church in a German city at the new year... Which was promptly dismissed by the police as bullshit.
Wonder if the same populist fake news crap will infect Germany in their election
Members of AFD and NPD are rather blatantly spreading false news. The AFD in my town recently made news when they spread an "authentic" picture via party placards of alleged immigrants beating up a German policeman. As it turned out, that picture was originally taken in Greece during the austerity riots, and the AFD edited it to give the Greek police officer German markings and the demonstrators leftist and Arab writings on their clothes. The AFD publicly admitted the fake under pressure but then immediately went on to blame the "lying" media anyway.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-election-spd-idUKKBN1581XN
QuoteGerman SPD chief Gabriel makes way for Schulz to run against Merkel
The leader of Germany's Social Democrats (SPD) will put forward Martin Schulz, the former president of the European Parliament, to challenge conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel in a national election on September 24, sources said on Tuesday.
Sigmar Gabriel's decision, reported by Stern magazine and confirmed by party sources, will make Germany's election less predictable and also signals the SPD wants to end its role as junior partner in Merkel's current right-left coalition.
Opinion polls suggest Schulz has a better chance than Gabriel of unseating Merkel, who has led Germany since 2005 and is Europe's most powerful leader. Her conservatives' coalition with the SPD has governed Germany since 2013.
"If I were to stand, I would fail and the SPD would fail with me," Gabriel, who serves as vice chancellor and economy minister in Merkel's government, told Stern magazine.
"All the polls have shown that people don't want a grand coalition any more. In people's minds I stand for that. So Martin Schulz is the most suitable man," one person at the party meeting quoted Gabriel as saying.
The party is expected to formally decide on Schulz's candidacy for chancellor in the near future. If confirmed, he faces a very tough job beating Merkel, whose conservatives lead in opinion polls by about 15 percentage points.
But a poll conducted this month by the Emnid institute for the Bild newspaper showed that in a direct vote Schulz would win 38 percent versus 39 percent for Merkel, compared to a result of 27 percent for Gabriel and 46 percent for Merkel.
The SPD aims to form a coalition with smaller parties on the left but most analysts still think another right-left coalition is the most likely outcome of September's election.
Schulz, 61, said in November he would return to German politics after his stint as president of the European Parliament.
Stern reported that Gabriel, 57, a former schoolteacher, would also offer to give up his chairmanship of the SPD, a position he has held since 2009. Gabriel is the longest serving leader of the SPD since former Chancellor Willy Brandt.
German weekly Die Zeit, citing no sources, reported that Gabriel would seek the post of foreign minister.
The role of foreign minister will become available soon as Frank-Walter Steinmeier, also a leading member of the SPD, is expected to be elected to the largely ceremonial role of German president next month.
It's clear now who'll lead the two biggest parties into Germany's general election in September - Merkel for the Conservatives, Schulz for the Social Democrats. Merkel will likely still prevail, but this might give the SPD a small bump in opinion polls.
It's rather unusual that a party leader in Germany just resigns like Gabriel did now. Most of the time they only resign briefly before the knives come out. That was not yet the case in the SPD, so he shows statemanship and realism by resigning on his own terms.
And it puts forward a candidate that was not part of the Grand Coalition that Merkel dominated.
QuoteGermany abolishes law that bans insulting foreign leaders
Decision comes days after Donald Trump's inauguration and a year after prosecution of German comic who wrote crude poem about Turkish President
Germany has decided to abolish a law which defends the honour of foreign leaders.
International heads of state will no longer be able to ask the German government to prosecute people deemed to have offended them under an obscure passage of German law.
This was the 19th century law that Erdogan used to have a German comedian prosecuted last year. The case was later dropped though. It's somehow fitting that this is officially taken off the books now that Trump is president. I could imagine him using it in his narcism.
Germany's population grew by about 750.000 persons last year from migration and reaches the highest ever recorded at about 82.8 million (previous high was 82.5 million in 2002). Also the highest birth rate in 33 years.
Quote from: Zanza on January 27, 2017, 04:08:43 PM
Germany's population grew by about 750.000 persons last year from migration and reaches the highest ever recorded at about 82.8 million (previous high was 82.5 million in 2002). Also the highest birth rate in 33 years.
Got to fill the ranks for when the Russians come pouring through the Fulda Gap.
Oh right you guys control both sides of that now.
Quote from: Zanza on January 27, 2017, 04:08:43 PM
Germany's population grew by about 750.000 persons last year from migration and reaches the highest ever recorded at about 82.8 million (previous high was 82.5 million in 2002). Also the highest birth rate in 33 years.
How many of your contemporaries are cranking out the jung volk? What percentage? Or have cranked them out?
QuoteGermany to electronically tag all people on terror watchlist
Measure reflects tougher approach and will include those who have committed no crime
The German government will electronically tag all people on the country's terror watchlist even if they have committed no crime, reflecting a tougher approach in the wake of December's terror attack in Berlin.
The measure is one of several proposals agreed by the justice and interior ministries in the weeks after the attack, in which a 24-year-old Tunisian man, Anis Amri, drove a truck into crowds at a Christmas market, killing 12 people and wounding about 50.
It later emerged that Amri, who was killed in a shootout with Italian police a few days after the incident, had been classified by authorities as a potentially dangerous extremist and marked for deportation to Tunisia. But the attempt to send him back failed after the authorities there refused to recognise him as a citizen.
[...]
The tagging proposal had been agreed by justice minister Heiko Maas and interior minister Thomas de Maizière last month as part of a package of measures to beef up security.
Mr de Maizière said tags were "no silver bullet" but were an "important instrument, to make it easier to monitor people".
The tag is a GPS transmitter attached to the leg which emits a signal when a suspect approaches a prohibited zone.
The DPA news agency said there were currently 88 people convicted of sex crimes or crimes of violence in Germany who have been released from prison and are wearing tags. But so far they have never been used for potential terrorists.
https://www.ft.com/content/ba7b6dae-e887-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539
Hmm, not sure what to think about it. Tagging innocents might be a bad precedent, but then the state has to react somehow. I am sure this will end up before our constitutional court eventually. About 500 persons would be affected by this.
Quote from: Zanza on February 01, 2017, 01:50:44 PM
Hmm, not sure what to think about it. Tagging innocents might be a bad precedent,
:lol: Really? This is the bad precedent?
Germans were never tagging innocents before? :P
Fuck it. You guys just need to rearm. And get the bomb.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on February 01, 2017, 09:01:52 PM
Fuck it. You guys just need to rearm. And get the bomb.
WWIII Germans the good guys and America the bad guys? M Night Shamalamadingdong would be proud of that twist.
Quote from: HVC on February 01, 2017, 09:06:55 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on February 01, 2017, 09:01:52 PM
Fuck it. You guys just need to rearm. And get the bomb.
WWIII Germans the good guys and America the bad guys? M Night Shamalamadingdong would be proud of that twist.
Trump America and Le Pen France attacking from the west and Putin coming from the east.
Excuse me, I got my pants soggy. BRB.
I will be on the same side France is on.
Quote from: Ed Anger on February 01, 2017, 09:09:05 PM
Trump America and Le Pen France attacking from the west and Putin coming from the east.
Excuse me, I got my pants soggy. BRB.
En avant!
Quote from: Valmy on February 01, 2017, 09:09:28 PM
I will be on the same side France is on.
Running in the opposite direction of their allies? :unsure:
YeH, it was an easy target, but dammit in this day and age you need to take joy where you can.
Quote from: HVC on February 01, 2017, 09:14:25 PM
Quote from: Valmy on February 01, 2017, 09:09:28 PM
I will be on the same side France is on.
Running in the opposite direction of their allies? :unsure:
YeH, it was an easy target, but dammit in this day and age you need to take joy where you can.
You are NOT invited to my summer residence.
:o :(
Like I would have gotten an invite anyway :lol:
I'd just make you pick apples.
Quote from: HVC on February 01, 2017, 09:14:25 PM
Quote from: Valmy on February 01, 2017, 09:09:28 PM
I will be on the same side France is on.
Running in the opposite direction of their allies? :unsure:
YeH, it was an easy target, but dammit in this day and age you need to take joy where you can.
I am sure any holes in the lines will be eagerly plugged by the fearless Porto-Canuck reservists.
Quote from: Ed Anger on February 01, 2017, 09:26:39 PM
I'd just make you pick apples.
I'm not Mexican!
God dammit I hate this place. Stereotypes and slurs are one thing, but get them right!
Quote from: Valmy on February 01, 2017, 09:27:38 PM
Quote from: HVC on February 01, 2017, 09:14:25 PM
Quote from: Valmy on February 01, 2017, 09:09:28 PM
I will be on the same side France is on.
Running in the opposite direction of their allies? :unsure:
YeH, it was an easy target, but dammit in this day and age you need to take joy where you can.
I am sure any holes in the lines will be eagerly plugged by the fearless Porto-Canuck reservists.
Canada did real well well in both Wars.... and I think Portugal sent some soldiers in WWI. kind of played it Swiss in the second, but without the horde red stolen Jewish gold part.
Quit shitting up the thread, assholes. You'll make Zanza quit.
This was previously posted in the Trump presidency thread, but what's the German media follow-up on this?
QuoteTrump's top trade adviser accuses Germany of currency exploitation
Berlin is using a 'grossly undervalued' euro to gain advantage over trading partners, says Navarro
Germany is using a "grossly undervalued" euro to "exploit" the US and its EU partners, Donald Trump's top trade adviser has said in comments likely to trigger alarm in Europe's largest economy.
Peter Navarro, the head of Mr Trump's new National Trade Council, told the Financial Times the euro was like an "implicit Deutsche Mark" whose low valuation gave Germany an advantage over its main trading partners. His views suggest the new administration is focusing on currency as part of its hard-charging approach on trade ties.
In a departure from past US policy, Mr Navarro also called Germany one of the main hurdles to a US trade deal with the EU and declared talks with the bloc over a US-EU agreement, known as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, dead.
https://www.ft.com/content/57f104d2-e742-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539
Quote from: HVC on February 01, 2017, 09:30:40 PM
Canada did real well well in both Wars.... and I think Portugal sent some soldiers in WWI. kind of played it Swiss in the second, but without the horde red stolen Jewish gold part.
Portugal sent soldiers who were just supposed to hold a bit of the line. Then the full fury of Germany's 1918 offensive fell right on their line. Tough break Portugal.
They were in a bind in WWII. Dependent on the British yet also Fascist. What can you do?
Quote from: CountDeMoney on February 01, 2017, 09:32:59 PM
Quit shitting up the thread, assholes. You'll make Zanza quit.
Nah, I just usually sleep at night. ;)
Quote
This was previously posted in the Trump presidency thread, but what's the German media follow-up on this?
QuoteTrump's top trade adviser accuses Germany of currency exploitation
Berlin is using a 'grossly undervalued' euro to gain advantage over trading partners, says Navarro
Germany is using a "grossly undervalued" euro to "exploit" the US and its EU partners, Donald Trump's top trade adviser has said in comments likely to trigger alarm in Europe's largest economy.
Peter Navarro, the head of Mr Trump's new National Trade Council, told the Financial Times the euro was like an "implicit Deutsche Mark" whose low valuation gave Germany an advantage over its main trading partners. His views suggest the new administration is focusing on currency as part of its hard-charging approach on trade ties.
In a departure from past US policy, Mr Navarro also called Germany one of the main hurdles to a US trade deal with the EU and declared talks with the bloc over a US-EU agreement, known as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, dead.
https://www.ft.com/content/57f104d2-e742-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539
The German government rejects those claims pointing out that monetary policy is out of our hands (which is true) and that they are already doing enough to remove this imbalance (not true, but also rather hard with just fiscal measures). Furthermore Germany will do everything it can to keep the EU together and counter the US government's divide & conquer strategy towards the EU. Let's see if that works as Germany is seen critically by some EU governments (especially Italy and some Eastern countries).
Corporate Germany is busy pointing out how much they invested in the USA and how many jobs they created there and how much they export from the American factories. E.g. Siemens had their annual press conference yesterday and was very busy pointing out that they have more than 50,000 employees in the US and invested 30 billion there in the last 10 years. They will also use any kind of lobbying (senators, Trump advisors etc.) they can think of to make their argument heard. The auto industry is especially jittery at the moment as Trump has focused on them a lot. They point out that GM and Ford have double the market share in Germany that they have in the US for example. Or that BMW's plant is the biggest auto exporter in the entire USA.
Facts. Like that's something The DonAld-Right and the Trumpettes care about. :D
Quote from: HVC on February 01, 2017, 09:14:25 PM
Quote from: Valmy on February 01, 2017, 09:09:28 PM
I will be on the same side France is on.
Running in the opposite direction of their allies? :unsure:
These days, it's the US that does that. :P
Quote from: Zanza on February 02, 2017, 02:01:57 AM
Corporate Germany is busy pointing out how much they invested in the USA and how many jobs they created there and how much they export from the American factories. E.g. Siemens had their annual press conference yesterday and was very busy pointing out that they have more than 50,000 employees in the US and invested 30 billion there in the last 10 years. They will also use any kind of lobbying (senators, Trump advisors etc.) they can think of to make their argument heard. The auto industry is especially jittery at the moment as Trump has focused on them a lot. They point out that GM and Ford have double the market share in Germany that they have in the US for example. Or that BMW's plant is the biggest auto exporter in the entire USA.
Do you know who cares? Nobody. Those are all existential threats to the economic health and security of the United States. Germany: ON NOTICE
Quote from: Ed Anger on February 01, 2017, 09:09:05 PM
Quote from: HVC on February 01, 2017, 09:06:55 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on February 01, 2017, 09:01:52 PM
Fuck it. You guys just need to rearm. And get the bomb.
WWIII Germans the good guys and America the bad guys? M Night Shamalamadingdong would be proud of that twist.
Trump America and Le Pen France attacking from the west and Putin coming from the east.
Excuse me, I got my pants soggy. BRB.
I'll better dust off my French than. Long Live the Rhine border.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on February 02, 2017, 06:34:23 AM
Quote from: Zanza on February 02, 2017, 02:01:57 AM
Corporate Germany is busy pointing out how much they invested in the USA and how many jobs they created there and how much they export from the American factories. E.g. Siemens had their annual press conference yesterday and was very busy pointing out that they have more than 50,000 employees in the US and invested 30 billion there in the last 10 years. They will also use any kind of lobbying (senators, Trump advisors etc.) they can think of to make their argument heard. The auto industry is especially jittery at the moment as Trump has focused on them a lot. They point out that GM and Ford have double the market share in Germany that they have in the US for example. Or that BMW's plant is the biggest auto exporter in the entire USA.
Do you know who cares? Nobody. Those are all existential threats to the economic health and security of the United States. Germany: ON NOTICE
It's the same kind of facts that got the UK into the EU, and a n.... to the White House. Enough of facts and experts!!!!!!111
Quote from: CountDeMoney on February 02, 2017, 06:34:23 AM
Quote from: Zanza on February 02, 2017, 02:01:57 AM
Corporate Germany is busy pointing out how much they invested in the USA and how many jobs they created there and how much they export from the American factories. E.g. Siemens had their annual press conference yesterday and was very busy pointing out that they have more than 50,000 employees in the US and invested 30 billion there in the last 10 years. They will also use any kind of lobbying (senators, Trump advisors etc.) they can think of to make their argument heard. The auto industry is especially jittery at the moment as Trump has focused on them a lot. They point out that GM and Ford have double the market share in Germany that they have in the US for example. Or that BMW's plant is the biggest auto exporter in the entire USA.
Do you know who cares? Nobody. Those are all existential threats to the economic health and security of the United States. Germany: ON NOTICE
If nothing else helps, German multinationals have extensive experience in bribing corrupt banana republic politicians. :P
Quote from: Valmy on February 01, 2017, 09:34:44 PM
Quote from: HVC on February 01, 2017, 09:30:40 PM
Canada did real well well in both Wars.... and I think Portugal sent some soldiers in WWI. kind of played it Swiss in the second, but without the horde red stolen Jewish gold part.
Portugal sent soldiers who were just supposed to hold a bit of the line. Then the full fury of Germany's 1918 offensive fell right on their line. Tough break Portugal.
They were in a bind in WWII. Dependent on the British yet also Fascist. What can you do?
After a long rotation, those Portuguese soldiers were supposed to be substituted by Brits just before the offensive began too.
As for WWII
Give the Allies some bases in the Azores to cover the last U-Boot gap in the decisive Battle of the Atlantic? :D
Get invaded by the Allies (not a brutal invasion) then Japan (Kempeitai is way more brutal) in East Timor ?
"Free" de facto but not de jure occupation of Macau included. :)
Mission accomplished! No state-sanctioned volunteers like the Division Azul. :P
As for fascism, it's an overstatement, authoritarian, corporatist reactionary, paternalist and ultra-conservative would be more like it. No totalitarism, expansionism to fit the fascist label. Think of Metaxas, a pro-German, who got the homeland invaded for real. ;)
Luso-tropicalism does not fit the racism part too.
PS: the African part of WWI was mismanaged too :bleeding:
Germany needs to re-arm and acquire nuclear weapons, for their sake and the rest of Western European. :bowler:
Our foreign minister met with Pence and Tillerson and apparently feels that they are at least normal American conservatives when it comes to security policy (NATO et al), whereas they were non-commital on free trade.
Yeah, Pence and Tillerson are going to have to get used to that. Pence I can see tolerating that; as a career politician, he is as much a whore as the women he hates--but Tillerson, not so much. The man ran a Fortune Five, he's only going to play houseboy for so long for that sociopathic moron.
The nomination of Martin Schulz, the former president of the European Parliament, has given the Social Democrats in Germany a massive boost in the last two weeks. A first opinion poll sees them ahead of the Conservatives and the personal approval rating of Schulz is higher than that of Merkel. This could be the end of Merkel's political career or it could just be a brief flicker in the opinion polls. The Social Democrats have languished around 23% in opinion polls for years now and have all of a sudden polled about 31%. I don't think they polled ahead of the Conservatives anytime in the last 10 years or so.
If Martin Schulz brings such hopes, then the previous candidates must have been hopeless. :D
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on February 06, 2017, 01:27:38 PM
If Martin Schulz brings such hopes, then the previous candidates must have been hopeless. :D
The SPD has more or less been on a downward trend for a while now...
1998 Gerhard Schröder 40.9% (opposition, won)
2002 Gerhard Schröder 38.5% (incumbent)
2005 Gerhard Schröder 34.2% (incumbent)
2009 Frank-Walter Steinmeier 23% (junior partner in coaltion)
2013 Peer Steinbrück 25.7% (opposition)
Interesting enough, Steinmeier is the most popular German politician these days and will be elected as our next figurehead president next week.
So Schröder was a high point? :lmfao:
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on February 06, 2017, 01:39:09 PM
So Schröder was a high point? :lmfao:
Yes, 1998 was their best result in a generation (previous high was in 1980 under Schmidt).
Shows how much people were fed up with Kohl.
Quote from: Malicious Intent on February 07, 2017, 07:03:25 AM
Shows how much people were fed up with Kohl.
This makes more sense but Schröder does not seem like an improvement, in hindsight.
QuoteSurplus war
Germany's current-account surplus is a problem
But not for the reasons Donald Trump thinks it is
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.static-economist.com%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fimagecache%2Ffull-width%2Fimages%2Fprint-edition%2F20170211_EUD000_0.jpg&hash=b66b81c388cb0d5b748a0f57482ede115ec0da02)
WHAT awkward timing. On February 9th Germany reported the world's largest current-account surplus, of about €270bn (almost $300bn), beating even China's. Meanwhile, the country with the world's biggest deficit remains America, which under its new president, Donald Trump, is browbeating friend and foe alike in the name of putting "America first". Mr Trump's economic adviser, Peter Navarro, has even accused Germany of currency manipulation. By his logic, Germany "exploits" America and others because it uses the euro, which is weaker today than the old Deutschmark would be, making German cars, machines and other exports more competitive.
Coming just weeks after Mr Trump casually threatened to slap a 35% tariff on imported BMWs, such talk has Germans' full attention. His verbal assaults on the rules-based trading order, along with his disdain for NATO and the European Union, strike at the heart of post-war Germany's identity and national interest, which is to be embedded in Europe and the West as a peaceful mercantile nation. But if Mr Trump thinks the angst he is causing gives him bargaining power over Germany, he is naive.
His administration's mistake is to attack Germany with flawed logic. Yes, the euro is weak relative to the dollar. But so are other currencies. Germans think Mr Trump has only himself to blame. He has promised huge tax cuts and increases in infrastructure spending, which will drive up interest rates in America, boosting the dollar. Mr Navarro's suggestion that Germany deliberately attempts to weaken the euro makes no sense. The European Central Bank (ECB) may be based in Frankfurt. But its president, Mario Draghi, is keeping interest rates near zero and buying bonds (in the European version of "quantitative easing") primarily to stimulate economies outside Germany.
Indeed, German economists and pundits are Mr Draghi's most vocal critics. They have complained for years that low interest rates rob German savers and ruin German life insurers. If the government shows restraint in criticising Mr Draghi, that is thanks to another German tradition: respect for the independence of central bankers. When Mr Draghi began loosening monetary policy, "I told him he would drive up Germany's export surplus," Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany's finance minister, told Tagesspiegel, a German newspaper. "I promised then not to criticise this course publicly. But I do not then want to be criticised for the consequences of this policy."
By choosing the wrong line of reasoning, Mr Trump has unwittingly let the Germans off the hook in a more fundamental debate. After all, Germany's trade surpluses have been controversial for years. Long before Mr Trump ran for office, the European Commission in Brussels, the International Monetary Fund in Washington, America's treasury department and the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries, were already berating Germany for causing imbalances in the European and global economies.
The real German problem
Their analysis starts more than a decade ago, when German employers and unions agreed to restrain wage growth. Workers weren't thrilled, but everyone agreed that Germany was not competitive enough. This amounted to a devaluation of Germany within the euro zone. The best way out of today's imbalances, economists say, is not to keep cutting wages in down-and-out countries like Greece, but to let them rise in Germany. Wages have been going up—by 2.3% last year—but should grow faster.
The other factor is that Germans, in an ageing society, have for years been saving much more than they invest. Individuals are filling piggy banks for their retirement. And firms, expecting lower returns from older, smaller populations in the future, are investing abroad instead of at home. At the same time, the government, also citing demography, in 2011 adopted a "debt brake", limiting its new borrowing at just the moment when ultra-low interest rates would make debt service almost free. The resulting excess savings are capital that Germany sends abroad. They are the corollary of Germany's current-account surpluses.
There is a case that Germany invests too little. Marcel Fratzscher, an economist, estimates this "investment gap" at €100bn annually. Many in the centre-left Social Democratic party (SPD) agree with him. They include Martin Schulz, the SPD's freshly chosen candidate for chancellor in the election scheduled for September 24th. He has jolted his party in the polls. The SPD is now roughly even with the centre-right bloc of Angela Merkel. Should Mr Schulz win, government spending could rise.
Other German economists, such as Clemens Fuest, doubt that the gap is big. In the 1990s, after reunification, investment soared as eastern Germany got new roads, buildings and plants. Eventually that exceptional spending had to end, says Mr Fuest, and recently Germany's investment ratio has been stable. In 2015 it was 19.9%, a bit higher than the EU average. Boosting investment is a good idea, he thinks, but no realistic increase could reverse a current-account surplus that amounts to 9% of GDP.
If Germany really wanted to attack its surpluses, it would have to do something drastic, he thinks, such as lowering value-added tax (making goods cheaper, domestic or foreign) while raising payroll taxes (making only German labour dearer). But that is a non-starter politically. Another option is for the government to stop saving and start deficit-spending. But that too is anathema in the Berlin consensus. As the German campaign heats up, all sides are instead likely to praise the surplus as a sign of export prowess. Sigmar Gabriel, the foreign minister and a leading Social Democrat, gave a taste of this defiance when he responded to Mr Trump's tariff threat by taunting America to "make better cars". One day, when enough elderly Germans actually cash in their savings, German surpluses will turn to deficits. Until then, Germany's policy stand-off with the world will continue.
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21716641-not-reasons-donald-trump-thinks-it-germanys-current-account-surplus-problem
Nothing really new, but a good enough description of the current macroeconomic imbalance finds itself in, the reasons for it and the few things the government can or wants to do about it.
http://www.politico.eu/article/nato-survival-will-depend-on-germany/
QuoteOPINION
NATO survival will depend on Germany
Europe is $100 billion short of strategic autonomy. Berlin could close that gap.
By FABRICE POTHIER 2/15/17, 4:49 PM CET Updated 2/15/17, 6:46 PM CET
The United States will meet its commitments in Europe but NATO's European members have to step up on their defense spending — that's the message U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis will try to hammer home when he meets with European counterparts in Brussels.
What we're not likely to hear is that the answer to the alliance's spending woes largely hinges on just one country: Germany.
With Europe's largest GDP and by far its strongest economy, Germany is the swing state in European defense. If Berlin commits to spending the recommended 2 percent of GDP on defense, it would add $30 billion of defense spending in Europe — a large share of the $100 billion surplus that would be generated if all European members and Canada met their targets. The move would significantly boost European defense.
On the flipside, marginal increases from Berlin — along the lines of what it has done since 2014 — would keep European defense spending stuck between 1.2 and 1.3 percent of GDP, an embarrassingly low average considering Europe's share of global GDP is larger than the Americans'.
The question, however, is whether Germany can — or indeed should — become the leading military power in Europe.
German leaders are well aware of their NATO allies' expectations even if they are not always publicly expressed. Despite Berlin's initial resistance to sign NATO's defense pledge, its defense budget has increased every year since 2014. The German defense ministry has secured some hard-won increases from Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, the keeper of Germany's austerity budget, and Chancellor Angela Merkel has repeated on many occasions her commitment to increase defense spending.
But behind the encouraging statements, Germany only allocates a disappointing 1.2 percent of GDP to defense. The Bundeswehr is underperforming and has a limited ability to deploy its own troops or those of its allies. Germany is one of the world's leading defense manufacturers and exporters, but too much of its defense budget is apportioned to personnel spending. No wonder, then, that German pledges to increase spending are usually met in Paris with an ironic shrug that it will only serve to make German officer pensions more attractive.
Getting Germany to punch closer to its weight will not be easy. Berlin's next coalition in the Bundestag will have to break with two powerful dogmas of post-World War II Germany: a balanced budget and a pacifist mindset.
Both ideas are deeply entrenched in Germany's political culture and institutions. But should Merkel be reelected and commit to greater military spending, it would not be the first time the pragmatic chancellor instigated a radical shift with incremental steps. Just look at her refugee policy or her firm stance against Russia, which clashes with major German industrial interests and coalition partners.
Germany's postwar doctrines are not as intractable as they seem. One of Merkel's own predecessors, Konrad Adenauer, already partly broke with one when he decided to rearm Western Germany against the advice of many in his own party in the early 1950s.
Some European politicians and security experts have indulged in wishful thinking that Donald Trump's presidency could mark Europe's chance to assert itself as a more autonomous power. But the numbers tell another story.
Europe is $100 billion short of strategic autonomy. A recent closed-doors exercise with former top officials from the Pentagon and U.S. military as well as senior European officials revealed that neither side could properly defend Europe from Russian hybrid attacks. The U.S. is over committed globally and, in the best case, will only commit to a marginal increase of spending in Europe. The Europeans still lag behind in terms of modern warfare capabilities.
Now more than ever, $100 billion is a long shot. Other important European players — such as Italy, Spain and the Netherlands — are either too small or too economically weak to have much of an effect on the European defense balance. In this scenario, Germany's $30 billion could make all the difference between a stronger Europe or a weaker one.
Short of that, any talk of a European defense union, or even of a European pillar within NATO, will remain just that — talk.
That has the potential to be a dominating theme both in domestic and foreign policy for the next legislative period starting after our federal elections in September. If there is a coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and Left Party after the election, that will never happen. But on the other hand the realization that Germany needs to step up here could be a stumbling block for such a coalition ever forming in the first place. But even among the Social Democrats a lot would grumble about a major increase of military spending, so a continued government by conservatives and social democrats would have problems to make good on this too.
For once, Europe wants to be dominated by ze Germans. This is your chance! :D