Poll
Question:
Will illegal immigration from Mexico go up or down during Trump's first term in office?
Option 1: ¡Salta! says Dora - It will go up!
votes: 15
Option 2: None shall pass the Wall - It will go down!
votes: 13
Option 3: Paleoconservative dreams come true - Trump will be impeached or never take office
votes: 4
I say up.
If he wrecks the Mexican economy by abolishing NAFTA, you'll have millions trying to get into the USA.
Up is a good guess. If Donald throws a couple hundred billion in debt at highway projects that's a lot of manpower needed. Plus there are signs that FDI in Mexico is drying up.
On a related note I heard a story on NPR t'other day about severe labor shortages in the Colorado infrastructure construction market.
BTW Joan, you booted a perfect opportunity to use La Pasionaria's "No Paseran" from the Spanish Civil War. :nerd:
I favor turning Mexicans into helots.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2016, 02:34:46 PM
BTW Joan, you booted a perfect opportunity to use La Pasionaria's "No Paseran" from the Spanish Civil War. :nerd:
Oh shit, you're right. :(
I was trying to come up with a SOIAF motif like Castle Faux Gold Leaf but then gave up.
It will go down. Since Mexican birth rates have been going down, they will have fewer disaffected people willing to leave their homeland.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2016, 02:34:46 PM
BTW Joan, you booted a perfect opportunity to use La Pasionaria's "No Paseran" from the Spanish Civil War. :nerd:
It's "¡No pasarán!". :contract:
I think it will go down, but by non-significant amounts. My rationale is that you can only do so much from the border policing standpoint, even if you try really hard. The Mexico-US border is just too large and porous.
The only longterm solution to this is - imho - that either a) Mexico economy grows so it's less necessary to emigrate b) US economy tanks so it becomes less attractive to immigrate. Who knows, Trump might succeed in achieving b) and call a win.
Quote from: The Larch on November 30, 2016, 02:44:26 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2016, 02:34:46 PM
BTW Joan, you booted a perfect opportunity to use La Pasionaria's "No Paseran" from the Spanish Civil War. :nerd:
It's "¡No pasarán!". :contract:
:weep:
Quote from: The Larch on November 30, 2016, 02:44:26 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2016, 02:34:46 PM
BTW Joan, you booted a perfect opportunity to use La Pasionaria's "No Paseran" from the Spanish Civil War. :nerd:
It's "¡No pasarán!". :contract:
/Der Spieß
Siamo passati!
:D
My view is a combination of those already mentioned:
1. current levels are already low.
2. If trump goes build build it will pull people in
3. If the Mexican economy keeps getting hurt it will push people out.
And those structural factors will swamp whatever impact occurs from tougher enforcement efforts.
Current levels are probably negative, which is just one of the things that drives me nuts about the illegal immigrant hysteria.
Quote from: frunk on November 30, 2016, 02:52:17 PM
Current levels are probably negative, which is just one of the things that drives me nuts about the illegal immigrant hysteria.
But since when does any of this have anything to do with reason? The only time Spanish far-right parties seemed close to gain representation (they still failed) was with an anti-immigration rethoric at a moment where population flows were negative (A lot of foreigners were leaving the country due to the bad economy, and ironically many Spaniards too, becoming immigrants somewhere else.)
Already down and will continue going down due to economic, social, and security reasons.
Quote from: celedhring on November 30, 2016, 02:46:49 PM
I think it will go down, but by non-significant amounts. My rationale is that you can only do so much from the border policing standpoint, even if you try really hard. The Mexico-US border is just too large and porous.
Also, we have these things called planes, and sometimes they take off from places in Mexico and land in places in the US. Lots of people travel from Mexico to the US on these planes.
Tell me more about these..."planes"...you called them?
It also has to be taken into account that a maybe not insignificant amount of people that migrate into the US from Mexico are not actually Mexicans, but from other Central American countries.
Kill them also.
Quote from: Valmy on November 30, 2016, 03:01:29 PM
Tell me more about these..."planes"...you called them?
I don't know much, but I think they appear from the sky and are full of horrible people. At least that was my experience when one came to my town. it was a black cylinder that had "TRUMP" written across it.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 30, 2016, 03:13:30 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 30, 2016, 03:01:29 PM
Tell me more about these..."planes"...you called them?
I don't know much, but I think they appear from the sky and are full of horrible people. At least that was my experience when one came to my town. it was a black cylinder that had "TRUMP" written across it.
They sound like tools of the devil.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 30, 2016, 02:58:35 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 30, 2016, 02:46:49 PM
I think it will go down, but by non-significant amounts. My rationale is that you can only do so much from the border policing standpoint, even if you try really hard. The Mexico-US border is just too large and porous.
Also, we have these things called planes, and sometimes they take off from places in Mexico and land in places in the US. Lots of people travel from Mexico to the US on these planes.
How hard is to get a valid tourist visa as a Mexican citizen?
I guess that if Mexican tourists going AWOL is a big issue (I don't know if it is), it will be hard to get them.
I think it'll go down, but I think in addition to stronger border enforcement we'll do more for legal immigration to streamline the process. Hopefully fix the Visa process which is so broken. We have not idea how many are still out and don't track them when visa users leave the country. Also apparently there are huge numbers that are lost or stolen.
I think the ideas will revolve around some sensible immigration reform and policies that both dems and repubs will agree to. But I can't see it continuing to work as the mess it is now.
I doubt if NAFTA will be revoked but it'll probably get some strong revisions negotiated among the nations. Trade is huge between Texas and Mexico, which provides lots of jobs to Texas, so things need to be looked at properly and not just terminate NAFTA.
I figure there will be no significant change.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on November 30, 2016, 02:50:09 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 30, 2016, 02:44:26 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2016, 02:34:46 PM
BTW Joan, you booted a perfect opportunity to use La Pasionaria's "No Paseran" from the Spanish Civil War. :nerd:
It's "¡No pasarán!". :contract:
/Der Spieß
Siamo passati!
:D
(https://ilgraffionews.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/mussolini-ha-sempre-ragione.jpg?w=460)
Quote from: celedhring on November 30, 2016, 03:19:51 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 30, 2016, 02:58:35 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 30, 2016, 02:46:49 PM
I think it will go down, but by non-significant amounts. My rationale is that you can only do so much from the border policing standpoint, even if you try really hard. The Mexico-US border is just too large and porous.
Also, we have these things called planes, and sometimes they take off from places in Mexico and land in places in the US. Lots of people travel from Mexico to the US on these planes.
How hard is to get a valid tourist visa as a Mexican citizen?
I guess that if Mexican tourists going AWOL is a big issue (I don't know if it is), it will be hard to get them.
Not all that hard, we have a program for Mexican nationals called a BCC (Border Crossing Card), the laminate BCC Mexicans can get (this is a special program for Mexico only) is an identity document
and can also serve as a legal B2 visitor visa. With only your BCC, you can get into the U.S. at any border crossing with minimal fuss, and you can stay for 72 hours. So obviously if you were detained at one of the internal immigration checkpoints or etc and found to have overstayed the 72 hour window you'd be in trouble.
An additional restriction is when traveling on the BCC by itself, you're restricted to travel within legally defined "Border Zone", that varies in size from one border state to the next. It's 25 miles out from the border in California and Texas, and up to 75 in Arizona.
If you come into the country with a BCC and your Mexican passport, then it functions like a full tourist visa--with all the normal restrictions (but not the border zone restrictions--you can travel anywhere in the U.S.), but the tourist visa stay period is still in effect (so even though your BCC is good for 10 years, when using it as a tourist visa you're still restricted to a 180 day consecutive stay limit before you need to leave and re-enter.)
The process for getting a BCC is pretty easy, you go to a U.S. Embassy or Consulate and apply for one, I think it's like $150, and you have to be interviewed. All the interview is checking for is some proof you have ties to Mexico, having a job is a big one that will help, but basically unless you show up for the interview and say "yeah I'm a drifter with no job or family" you're likely to get approved.
I speculate the reason Mexican illegals pay so much for smugglers to sneak them in illegally instead of just abusing the BCC is for the same reason a lot of people who are poor don't register to vote or etc--just a poor sophistication at understanding government bureaucracy, so they pay smugglers vastly more money and risk detention and deportation when they could pretty easily game the system with a valid BCC.
Quote from: Zanza on November 30, 2016, 02:31:44 PM
If he wrecks the Mexican economy by abolishing NAFTA, you'll have millions trying to get into the USA.
Nobody is discussing the impact on Canada. It won't be as messy, but they're going to go right down the shitter as well. They'll just be able to hang on to the sides a little longer.
We entered a free trade area with Canada in the late 80s, I'm not sure if we actually backed out of NAFTA if it also cancels that earlier arrangement or not.
Plus the Canucks are going to get Keystone XL back now.
Up. Trump's election has already been hell on the Mexican economy. I predict it will harm it more. Add to that a hiring freeze, I'd say illegal immigration will go up.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2016, 02:32:46 PM
Up is a good guess. If Donald throws a couple hundred billion in debt at highway projects that's a lot of manpower needed. Plus there are signs that FDI in Mexico is drying up.
and no one else will pick those fields. Beaners need something to do. Course Home Depot will still be around. Oooo and the taco trucks.
I used to think no one else would cut up hogs and cows either, but a friend of mine who used to teach ESL night classes at the JC says a lot of her African students work in meat packing plants.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2016, 07:47:58 PM
I used to think no one else would cut up hogs and cows either, but a friend of mine who used to teach ESL night classes at the JC says a lot of her African students work in meat packing plants.
By which methods/avenues were her Africans brought to America to work in the plants?
They left a trail of bananas, fried chicken and watermelon that lead to the meat packing plant.
Quote from: 11B4V on November 30, 2016, 07:43:37 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2016, 02:32:46 PM
Up is a good guess. If Donald throws a couple hundred billion in debt at highway projects that's a lot of manpower needed. Plus there are signs that FDI in Mexico is drying up.
and no one else will pick those fields. Beaners need something to do. Course Home Depot will still be around. Oooo and the taco trucks.
Don't forget the highly competitive leaf blower industry. Thankfully, the Society of Human Resources Management (SHRM) offers multiple certifications in the behavioral competencies required to effectively apply leaf blower knowledge in the modern landscaping workplace in support of organizational groundskeeping.
Quote from: Phillip V on November 30, 2016, 07:52:20 PM
By which methods/avenues were her Africans brought to America to work in the plants?
Didn't ask. Are we taking refugees from Zaire?
Probably it will go down. But more due to the failing American economy than anything trump does intentionally.
Quote from: Tyr on December 01, 2016, 03:21:38 AM
Probably it will go down. But more due to the failing American economy than anything trump does intentionally.
He'll take credit for it. Just like the 7M$ tax break by Indiana to keep less than half the Carrier plant employees in the US.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2016, 07:54:39 PM
Quote from: Phillip V on November 30, 2016, 07:52:20 PM
By which methods/avenues were her Africans brought to America to work in the plants?
Didn't ask. Are we taking refugees from Zaire?
Dude - that country hasn't been called Zaire for almost 20 years now.
Quote from: Barrister on December 01, 2016, 02:46:50 PM
Dude - that country hasn't been called Zaire for almost 20 years now.
And now there are two Congos. So I call it Zaire.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 01, 2016, 02:47:32 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 01, 2016, 02:46:50 PM
Dude - that country hasn't been called Zaire for almost 20 years now.
And now there are two Congos. So I call it Zaire.
And what's your excuse for continuing to use Siam and Ceylon? :yeahright:
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 01, 2016, 02:47:32 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 01, 2016, 02:46:50 PM
Dude - that country hasn't been called Zaire for almost 20 years now.
And now there are two Congos. So I call it Zaire.
Do you realise you use the Imperialist Portuguese name for Congo-Kinshasa? :whistle:
I've switched my poisition. Liquidate every Mexican. Starting with Tim. I reclassified him as a Mexican.
Quote from: Ed Anger on December 01, 2016, 03:54:37 PM
I've switched my poisition. Liquidate every Mexican. Starting with Tim. I reclassified him as a Mexican.
Those Doritos Locos Tacos really did a number on your colon, eh? :console:
Quote from: Barrister on December 01, 2016, 03:58:23 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on December 01, 2016, 03:54:37 PM
I've switched my poisition. Liquidate every Mexican. Starting with Tim. I reclassified him as a Mexican.
Those Doritos Locos Tacos really did a number on your colon, eh? :console:
Too much sodium.
Quote from: Barrister on December 01, 2016, 02:54:31 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 01, 2016, 02:47:32 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 01, 2016, 02:46:50 PM
Dude - that country hasn't been called Zaire for almost 20 years now.
And now there are two Congos. So I call it Zaire.
And what's your excuse for continuing to use Siam and Ceylon? :yeahright:
I don't do that, but I still call Burma Burma.
Quote from: dps on December 01, 2016, 05:28:55 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 01, 2016, 02:54:31 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 01, 2016, 02:47:32 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 01, 2016, 02:46:50 PM
Dude - that country hasn't been called Zaire for almost 20 years now.
And now there are two Congos. So I call it Zaire.
And what's your excuse for continuing to use Siam and Ceylon? :yeahright:
I don't do that, but I still call Burma Burma.
That's different actually. SInce the name Myanmar was introduced by the military junta apparently many dissidents from that country still call it Burma.
Myanmarese Tiger Trap just doesn't sing.
"nm" sound just doesn't work very well in English.
Quote from: Barrister on December 01, 2016, 02:54:31 PM
And what's your excuse for continuing to use Siam and Ceylon? :yeahright:
Those countries are somewhere south of Cathay, right?