Mexican Illegal Immigration Poll

[The Minsky Moment]

I say up.

[Zanza]

If he wrecks the Mexican economy by abolishing NAFTA, you'll have millions trying to get into the USA.

[Admiral Yi]

Up is a good guess.  If Donald throws a couple hundred billion in debt at highway projects that's a lot of manpower needed.  Plus there are signs that FDI in Mexico is drying up.

On a related note I heard a story on NPR t'other day about severe labor shortages in the Colorado infrastructure construction market.

[Admiral Yi]

BTW Joan, you booted a perfect opportunity to use La Pasionaria's "No Paseran" from the Spanish Civil War.

[Ed Anger]

I favor turning Mexicans into helots.

[The Minsky Moment]

BTW Joan, you booted a perfect opportunity to use La Pasionaria's "No Paseran" from the Spanish Civil War.

Oh shit, you're right. 
I was trying to come up with a SOIAF motif like Castle Faux Gold Leaf but then gave up.

[Valmy]

It will go down. Since Mexican birth rates have been going down, they will have fewer disaffected people willing to leave their homeland.

[The Larch]

BTW Joan, you booted a perfect opportunity to use La Pasionaria's "No Paseran" from the Spanish Civil War.

It's "¡No pasarán!".

[celedhring]

I think it will go down, but by non-significant amounts. My rationale is that you can only do so much from the border policing standpoint, even if you try really hard. The Mexico-US border is just too large and porous.

The only longterm solution to this is - imho - that either a) Mexico economy grows so it's less necessary to emigrate b) US economy tanks so it becomes less attractive to immigrate. Who knows, Trump might succeed in achieving b) and call a win.

[Admiral Yi]

BTW Joan, you booted a perfect opportunity to use La Pasionaria's "No Paseran" from the Spanish Civil War.

It's "¡No pasarán!".

[Duque de Bragança]

BTW Joan, you booted a perfect opportunity to use La Pasionaria's "No Paseran" from the Spanish Civil War.

It's "¡No pasarán!".

/Der Spieß

Siamo passati!

[The Minsky Moment]

My view is a combination of those already mentioned:
1. current levels are already low.
2. If trump goes build build it will pull people in
3.  If the Mexican economy keeps getting hurt it will push people out.

And those structural factors will swamp whatever impact occurs from tougher enforcement efforts.

[frunk]

Current levels are probably negative, which is just one of the things that drives me nuts about the illegal immigrant hysteria.

[celedhring]

Current levels are probably negative, which is just one of the things that drives me nuts about the illegal immigrant hysteria.

But since when does any of this have anything to do with reason? The only time Spanish far-right parties seemed close to gain representation (they still failed) was with an anti-immigration rethoric at a moment where population flows were negative (A lot of foreigners were leaving the country due to the bad economy, and ironically many Spaniards too, becoming immigrants somewhere else.)

[Phillip V]

Already down and will continue going down due to economic, social, and security reasons.