Climate change is going to cause a lot of chaos and violence in the third world.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/27/science/intolerable-heat-may-hit-the-middle-east-by-the-end-of-the-century.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
Quote'Intolerable' Heat May Hit the Middle East by the End of the Century
By JOHN SCHWARTZOCT. 26, 2015
By the end of this century, areas of the Persian Gulf could be hit by waves of heat and humidity so severe that simply being outside for several hours could threaten human life, according to a new study published Monday. Because of humanity's contribution to climate change, the authors wrote, some population centers in the Middle East "are likely to experience temperature levels that are intolerable to humans."
The dangerously muggy summer conditions predicted for places near the warm waters of the Gulf could overwhelm the ability of the human body to reduce its temperature through sweating and ventilation. That threatens anyone without air-conditioning — including the poor, but also those who work outdoors in professions like agriculture and construction.
The paper, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, was written by Jeremy S. Pal of the department of civil engineering and environmental science at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles and Elfatih A. B. Eltahir of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Previous studies had suggested that such conditions might be reached in the next 200 years. But the new research, which depends on detailed climate models that focus on regional topography and conditions, foresees a much shorter timeline.
The researchers resolve the old argument over whether the source of summer misery is the heat or the humidity by saying that it is both. They rely on a method of measuring atmospheric conditions known as wet-bulb temperature, which, while less well known and understood than the standard method of measuring temperatures, describes the extent to which evaporation and ventilation can lower an object's temperature.
If the wet-bulb temperature is 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit), that means that even a person drenched in sweat cannot cool off. Wet-bulb readings are not the same as the heat-index measurements used by the National Weather Service, Dr. Eltahir said. (This is the figure used by weather forecasters to say what a hot day "feels like" when the humidity is added.)
A wet-bulb measure of 35 degrees Celsius, he estimated, would roughly translate to a heat-index reading of 165 degrees Fahrenheit. Since even today's heat waves cause premature deaths by the thousands, mainly affecting very young, elderly and infirm people, the more extreme conditions envisioned in the new paper "would probably be intolerable even for the fittest of humans, resulting in hyperthermia" after six hours of exposure.
Erich M. Fischer, senior scientist at the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science at the science and technical university ETH Zurich, and who was not involved with the new paper, explained the role of humidity.
"Anyone can experience the fact that humidity plays a crucial role in this in the sauna," he said. "You can heat up a Finnish sauna up to 100 degrees Celsius since it is bone dry and the body efficiently cools down by excessive sweating even at ambient temperatures far higher than the body temperature. In a Turkish bath, on the other hand, with almost 100 percent relative humidity, you want to keep the temperatures well below 40 degrees Celsius since the body cannot get rid of the heat by sweating and starts to accumulate heat."
As climate change causes temperatures to rise around the world, it should come as no surprise that the warm-water coasts in the Middle East could be the first to experience brutal combinations of heat and humidity. The conditions would not be constant, but spikes would become increasingly common.
A temperature that today would rank in the 95th percentile "becomes approximately a normal summer day" by the end of the century, the researchers said. Wet-bulb temperatures that even exceed the 35-degree threshold could be expected to occur once every 10 or 20 years, Dr. Eltahir said. "When they happen, they will be quite lethal," he said.
The research also raises the prospect of "severe consequences" for the hajj, the annual pilgrimage that draws roughly two million people to Mecca to pray outdoors from dawn to dusk. Should the hajj, which can occur at different times of the year, fall during the height of the summer, "This necessary outdoor Muslim ritual is likely to become hazardous to human health," the authors predicted.
If the nations of the world reduce their greenhouse-gas emissions, the authors concluded, the predicted disasters can be prevented — "Such efforts applied at the global scale would significantly reduce the severity of the projected impacts."
An essay published along with the new paper by Christoph Schär, of the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science at ETH Zurich, said that the message of the new research is clear. "The threats to human health may be much more severe than previously thought, and may occur in the current century," he wrote.
A heat wave in July of this year got very close to the 35-degree wet-bulb threshold described by the authors, reaching 34.6 degrees. "It is credible that it will sometimes rise above 35 °C within this century," he wrote.
In an interview via email, Dr. Fischer said that he found the research "robust and noteworthy," though he said some uncertainties remain in the temperature measurements and the models. "Whether it exceeds or just gets close to the adaptability limit and for what period (which is probably quite relevant) may need further research," he wrote.
Steven Sherwood, a researcher whose work in 2010 suggested that parts of the world could become uninhabitable within 200 years if fossil-fuel burning continues unabated, said he saw no reason to doubt the results of the new study. However, he added that "we really need to learn how to improve these models" to build confidence in the results.
Still, he said he was startled by the prediction that many cities on the Persian Gulf coast could be essentially uninhabitable by the end of the century for those without air-conditioning. "That is truly shocking," he wrote in an email exchange, and added that he found it ironic, "given the region's importance in providing fossil fuels."
:hmm: Maybe Birobidzhan would've been a better option after all.
That's going to make the current refugee crisis look like nothing, if it comes to pass.
I mean, it's hard to argue "they should just stay in their own countries" if their own countries are uninhabitable. On the other hand, the population of the Middle East is orders of magnitude bigger than the current wave of emigrants from there.
And, of course, if global warming makes the place uninhabitable then the rest of the world will have some other problems as well.
Craig T. Nelson was in that made-for-TV movie. It had Americans overrunning the Canadian border. :P
Quote from: Jacob on October 26, 2015, 07:22:23 PM
That's going to make the current refugee crisis look like nothing, if it comes to pass.
I mean, it's hard to argue "they should just stay in their own countries" if their own countries are uninhabitable. On the other hand, the population of the Middle East is orders of magnitude bigger than the current wave of emigrants from there.
And, of course, if global warming makes the place uninhabitable then the rest of the world will have some other problems as well.
It will be a more gradual evolution though. As the countries move toward uninhabitability there will be a series of crop failures, economic and enivronmental crises, and wars/civil unrest that cause people to leave over the next century. Maybe the current crisis is just the leading edge of a trend?
That's really why the Muslims are leaving
I bet they got a bunch of grant money for this study while all they needed to do was ask me. It's already too hot for humans there.
Do researchers really expect they can change people's behaviour with these predictions? Oh, some far, far away place will become really miserable long after your death, so you better stop driving and using air-conditioning now. This doesn't fly.
Quote from: Monoriu on October 26, 2015, 08:12:39 PM
Do researchers really expect they can change people's behaviour with these predictions? Oh, some far, far away place will become really miserable long after your death, so you better stop driving and using air-conditioning now. This doesn't fly.
People who have children presumably have a different perspective on the possibility of 200 million starving, desperate refugees showing up at their border.
By the time this happens, Sweden will be a muslim state...so they can all go there.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 26, 2015, 08:32:49 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 26, 2015, 08:12:39 PM
Do researchers really expect they can change people's behaviour with these predictions? Oh, some far, far away place will become really miserable long after your death, so you better stop driving and using air-conditioning now. This doesn't fly.
People who have children presumably have a different perspective on the possibility of 200 million starving, desperate refugees showing up at their border.
Whose border? European borders, probably. Will those people show up at the Chinese or the US border? Far less likely.
Quote from: Monoriu on October 26, 2015, 08:40:59 PM
Whose border? European borders, probably. Will those people show up at the Chinese or the US border? Far less likely.
After Europe is overrun.
Quote from: Monoriu on October 26, 2015, 08:40:59 PM
Whose border? European borders, probably. Will those people show up at the Chinese or the US border? Far less likely.
No way people in Asia would go to a different place in Asia? Besides it is idiotic to suggest that problems will occur in the Middle East and nowhere else. The impacts will be disastrous right here in the USA.
So we know what is coming, why not use this to plan for the future? Did the Chinese government not do something to prevent their population bomb that was not due to actually impact anything for decades? So why not do the same here? I do not get your position it seeds needlessly and recklessly suicidal for no appreciable gain.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 26, 2015, 08:32:49 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 26, 2015, 08:12:39 PM
Do researchers really expect they can change people's behaviour with these predictions? Oh, some far, far away place will become really miserable long after your death, so you better stop driving and using air-conditioning now. This doesn't fly.
People who have children presumably have a different perspective on the possibility of 200 million starving, desperate refugees showing up at their border.
Unless they're of the 35% who don't believe climate change is happening (http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/09/23/most-americans-believe-in-climate-change-but-give-it-low-priority/), or the 41% who believe Jesus will return to Earth by 2050 (http://www.pewresearch.org/daily-number/jesus-christs-return-to-earth/) and, presumably, rapture everyone thus making climate change a moot point.
Quote from: Valmy on October 26, 2015, 09:21:37 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 26, 2015, 08:40:59 PM
Whose border? European borders, probably. Will those people show up at the Chinese or the US border? Far less likely.
No way people in Asia would go to a different place in Asia? Besides it is idiotic to suggest that problems will occur in the Middle East and nowhere else. The impacts will be disastrous right here in the USA.
So we know what is coming, why not use this to plan for the future? Did the Chinese government not do something to prevent their population bomb that was not due to actually impact anything for decades? So why not do the same here? I do not get your position it seeds needlessly and recklessly suicidal for no appreciable gain.
If I were in front of a computer, playing a space 4x game known as Master of Planets, and I see a pop up saying, a global disaster will happen, and we need to build this, stop that etc to solve the problem, I will.
But I am not. I don't have control over the entire planet. I am an insignificant office assistant, an individual. My individual choices have no effect on the outcome whatsoever. Even individual countries don't have much control over this. I see a problem that is unsolvable.
You forgot about the wonder factories Tim told us about a few months ago that are gonna use up the CO2 from the atmosphere.
Quote from: Monoriu on October 26, 2015, 09:44:25 PM
I see a problem that is unsolvable.
The problem is solvable. When we designed our technology burning clean was not a priority. Now it is. Design different systems in line with new priorities. Within a relatively short time CO2 emissions are going to plunge. The problem is simply that it will be too late to prevent a lot of these disasters. But still better late than never.
Quote from: Monoriu on October 26, 2015, 09:44:25 PM
If I were in front of a computer, playing a space 4x game known as Master of Planets, and I see a pop up saying, a global disaster will happen, and we need to build this, stop that etc to solve the problem, I will.
But I am not. I don't have control over the entire planet. I am an insignificant office assistant, an individual. My individual choices have no effect on the outcome whatsoever. Even individual countries don't have much control over this. I see a problem that is unsolvable.
Is this a Chinese thing or just you?
Quote from: Razgovory on October 26, 2015, 10:00:48 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 26, 2015, 09:44:25 PM
If I were in front of a computer, playing a space 4x game known as Master of Planets, and I see a pop up saying, a global disaster will happen, and we need to build this, stop that etc to solve the problem, I will.
But I am not. I don't have control over the entire planet. I am an insignificant office assistant, an individual. My individual choices have no effect on the outcome whatsoever. Even individual countries don't have much control over this. I see a problem that is unsolvable.
Is this a Chinese thing or just you?
Obviously I can only speak for myself. As for the general Chinese attitude, I suggest that you form your own opinion based on evidence. Go look around in China. Talk to other Chinese. Search for relevant statistics.
Where will be the next Jewish state?
EXODUS
Florida probably
Quote from: Razgovory on October 26, 2015, 10:00:48 PM
Is this a Chinese thing or just you?
I counsel against taking Mono as representative of anything Chinese. I mean, he's obviously Chinese and what he thinks and says is informed by that - but his analysis seems pretty idiosyncratic to me.
No problem. I base my analysis of the Chinese mindset on the characters in Tai-Pan. :D
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 26, 2015, 10:59:43 PM
No problem. I base my analysis of the Chinese mindset on the characters in Tai-Pan. :D
At first I thought you meant the old Apple II game. :(
But the only real characters in that game are Elder Brother Wu, the moneylender, and Li Yuen the pirate extortionist.
Quote from: Jacob on October 26, 2015, 10:56:47 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 26, 2015, 10:00:48 PM
Is this a Chinese thing or just you?
I counsel against taking Mono as representative of anything Chinese. I mean, he's obviously Chinese and what he thinks and says is informed by that - but his analysis seems pretty idiosyncratic to me.
He seems to fit the stereotype though. So either he is a troll who is deliberately playing to a stereotype, or there is some truth to it.
Just because an area becomes uninhabitable doesn't necessarily mean a refugee crisis. People can migrate before an emergency.
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 26, 2015, 09:45:04 PM
You forgot about the wonder factories Tim told us about a few months ago that are gonna use up the CO2 from the atmosphere.
Like one of these that have now been constructed :P
http://globalnews.ca/news/2268586/clearing-the-air-of-co2-new-carbon-capture-project-launched-in-squamish/
Our problems are man-made; therefore, they may be perpetuated by man.
Quote from: lustindarkness on October 26, 2015, 08:07:50 PM
I bet they got a bunch of grant money for this study while all they needed to do was ask me. It's already too hot for humans there.
on the next forum software update, I hope we get a like button :)
Quote from: Tonitrus on October 26, 2015, 07:43:39 PM
Craig T. Nelson was in that made-for-TV movie. It had Americans overrunning the Canadian border. :P
Now that would be a horror show for the Canucks! :ph34r:
Quote from: Valmy on October 26, 2015, 09:46:03 PMThe problem is solvable. When we designed our technology burning clean was not a priority. Now it is. Design different systems in line with new priorities. Within a relatively short time CO2 emissions are going to plunge. The problem is simply that it will be too late to prevent a lot of these disasters. But still better late than never.
Not to paint an overly rosy picture, but even with a lot of factors working against it: American skepticism of global warming, Chinese need to expand its industrial base, we're at least seeing progress in the right direction on carbon emissions. Even China is getting relatively serious about renewables and cleaner practices with its fossil fuel burning. The U.S. has implemented lots of policies designed to start turning the tide. It's generally agreed we aren't yet doing enough, but we're doing something. I think we'll do more and more as time progresses. My prediction is not fast enough to avoid some "relatively unpleasant impacts" but I think we're on the path to at the least avoid what I'd categorize as "catastrophe."
Quote from: KRonn on October 27, 2015, 10:13:57 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on October 26, 2015, 07:43:39 PM
Craig T. Nelson was in that made-for-TV movie. It had Americans overrunning the Canadian border. :P
Now that would be a horror show for the Canucks! :ph34r:
Syrian refugees I can support. But this? :P
All I can say is that I hope my pension fund is investing heavily in companies that produce goods and services related to mitigating the impact of climate change.
Quote from: crazy canuck on October 27, 2015, 10:33:28 AM
Quote from: KRonn on October 27, 2015, 10:13:57 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on October 26, 2015, 07:43:39 PM
Craig T. Nelson was in that made-for-TV movie. It had Americans overrunning the Canadian border. :P
Now that would be a horror show for the Canucks! :ph34r:
Syrian refugees I can support. But this? :P
Hehe, all those "ugly" Americans, they'll straighten things out in Canada in no time! ;)
Quote from: Jaron on October 26, 2015, 10:55:45 PM
Florida probably
Florida will be gone, thankfully.
But it's too hot for humans right now too.
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on October 27, 2015, 01:33:47 PM
But it's too hot for humans right now too.
Nah, it's nice in late October.
Quote from: Monoriu on October 26, 2015, 10:42:34 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 26, 2015, 10:00:48 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 26, 2015, 09:44:25 PM
If I were in front of a computer, playing a space 4x game known as Master of Planets, and I see a pop up saying, a global disaster will happen, and we need to build this, stop that etc to solve the problem, I will.
But I am not. I don't have control over the entire planet. I am an insignificant office assistant, an individual. My individual choices have no effect on the outcome whatsoever. Even individual countries don't have much control over this. I see a problem that is unsolvable.
Is this a Chinese thing or just you?
Obviously I can only speak for myself. As for the general Chinese attitude, I suggest that you form your own opinion based on evidence. Go look around in China. Talk to other Chinese. Search for relevant statistics.
I can't speak Chinese.
Mono is not the only Chinaman who knows English.
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 27, 2015, 01:57:01 PM
Mono is not the only Chinaman who knows English.
You may have noticed but I don't exactly get out much.
What's the point, now that there's internet? :hmm:
Quote from: Razgovory on October 27, 2015, 01:47:29 PM
I can't speak Chinese.
So? I can't speak Japanese or German, yet I go to these places. And I survived. Tons of people don't know any Chinese but go to China. First of all, unlike the French, Chinese don't expect foreigners to speak Chinese. Chinese have a responsibility to learn English to communicate with foreigners. At least that's why I learned English.