This was mentioned in the OTT, but it needs to be discussed.
If the GOP base is going to require candidates to be more conservative than Cantor than whoever they back in the presidential primaries is going to lose to the establishment candidate once again or get creamed in the national election.
EDIT: Also, there's apparently a "sore loser" law in Virginia that prevents him from running in the general election as an independent. How is that constitutional?
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/06/10/320797014/eric-cantor-defeated-in-republican-primary
Quote
Eric Cantor Defeated By Tea Party Candidate In Virginia Primary
by
June 10, 2014 8:09 PM ET
House Majority Leader Eric Cantor has lost his Republican primary in Virginia's 7th Congressional District to Tea Party challenger David Brat — a stunning upset that will rewrite the leadership of the chamber's GOP leadership.
Brat, an economics professor at Randolph-Macon College, was leading Cantor by .
"I know there's a lot of long faces here tonight, and it's disappointing, sure," Cantor said, speaking to supporters. "I believe in this country; I believe there's opportunity around the next corner for all of us."
NPR's Ron Elving calls the defeat of Cantor, who was widely expected to eventually replace House Speaker John Boehner, "Truly stunning and all but unprecedented for a speaker-in-waiting."
says that Brat tapped into "strong anti-incumbent fever that has taken over Cantor's Richmond-area district."
Although Cantor is a conservative and has been close to the Tea Party, "in the past two years they've been angered by his shift to support for some kind of immigration reform. Brat made that an issue, saying Cantor was no longer a real conservative," NPR's Don Gonyea says.
Even so, "Going into the elections, most Republicans had been watching for how broad Mr. Cantor's victory would be, with almost no one predicting that he would lose,"
, in an article earlier Tuesday, said Cantor was expected to prevail but acknowledged that Brat had "exposed discontent with Cantor in the solidly Republican, suburban Richmond 7th Congressional District by attacking the lawmaker on his votes to raise the debt ceiling and end the government shutdown, as well as his support for some immigration reforms."
Reuters says Cantor, the No. 2 in the House, heavily outspent his opponent, who managed to raise just over $200,000 for his campaign, according to his most recent campaign finance reports.
The Associated Press says:
"[Cantor's] loss to Dave Brat, a political novice with little money, marks a huge victory for the Tea Party movement, which supported Cantor just a few years ago.
"Brat had been a thorn in Cantor's side on the campaign. ... Last month, a feisty crowd of Brat supporters booed Cantor in front of his family at a local party convention."
calls Cantor's defeat "perhaps the most significant jolt to the Republican establishment since the emergence of the Tea Party in 2009":
"While conservative activists have ousted veteran Republicans like Sens. Bob Bennett (Utah) and Richard Lugar (Ind.), a sitting majority leader has never been defeated in a primary election.
"As recently as Friday, Cantor and his team in Virginia projected confidence.
" 'I'm just not worried,' Cantor's Richmond-based political adviser, Ray Allen, told The Hill. Cantor's own polling showed him with a comfortable lead.
"Brat told The Hill he was 'peaking at exactly the right time.' "
Good. He was the worst :bleeding:
And the establishment still needs a good purge.
What's interesting is everyone knew this was a safe win. Except for Cantor who spent millions and got beat by a guy who spent a little over $100k.
I'd also love to see the conflicted, conflicting emotions Boehner must be going through. I'd guess it involved crying.
First Cochran, now Cantor. I think we can officially retire all those 'Death of the Tea Party' pieces from a few weeks ago.
:lol: Sheilbh, you're wonderful.
It pleases me because a reinvigorated Tea Party means I'm going to get paid $100 in 2020. Well, $95, once you factor in crippling deflation.
Also how bad is GOP internal polling? Romney thought he was winning, Cantor thought he had a double digit lead. This should worry them.
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 11, 2014, 04:42:46 AM
Also how bad is GOP internal polling? Romney thought he was winning, Cantor thought he had a double digit lead. This should worry them.
The first is worrying, the second not so much. In a congressional primary so much depends on who shows up it's almost impossible for even good polling companies to successfully predict an upset.
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 11, 2014, 04:42:46 AM
Also how bad is GOP internal polling? Romney thought he was winning, Cantor thought he had a double digit lead. This should worry them.
Effective polling is just symptomatic of liberal bias.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on June 11, 2014, 04:45:30 AMThe first is worrying, the second not so much. In a congressional primary so much depends on who shows up it's almost impossible for even good polling companies to successfully predict an upset.
Of course it depends on who shows up, but then all elections do and polling is useful in getting that information. I think a party leadership is in trouble if it can't effective poll a - the country, or b - their own supporters.
It wasn't mildly wrong, Cantor thought he had a 30% lead. Being that out of touch with his own district is possibly part of the reason he lost.
In the end the revolution always eats it's own.
Personally, I think this reflects anti-incumbantism rather than Tea-Partyism, for the most part. Cantor is closely identified with the most ineffective House in a generation, and this "leadership" probably cost him the race. OTOH, that is the most republican district in the state (they sent George Allen to Congress), so maybe the TP is that strong there.
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 11, 2014, 02:03:41 AM
Good. He was the worst :bleeding:
And the establishment still needs a good purge.
What's interesting is everyone knew this was a safe win. Except for Cantor who spent millions and got beat by a guy who spent a little over $100k.
I'd also love to see the conflicted, conflicting emotions Boehner must be going through. I'd guess it involved crying.
First Cochran, now Cantor. I think we can officially retire all those 'Death of the Tea Party' pieces from a few weeks ago.
Agreed all around. Cantor hugely outspent his opponent but apparently was creamed in debates and his ideas weren't working with the VA voters who want change in the status quo of how government is being run.
A big loss to Boehner as Cantor was his right hand man, or one of them, and likely someone who could have moved into the Speaker position if/when Boehner retired.
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 11, 2014, 04:51:55 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on June 11, 2014, 04:45:30 AMThe first is worrying, the second not so much. In a congressional primary so much depends on who shows up it's almost impossible for even good polling companies to successfully predict an upset.
Of course it depends on who shows up, but then all elections do and polling is useful in getting that information. I think a party leadership is in trouble if it can't effective poll a - the country, or b - their own supporters.
It wasn't mildly wrong, Cantor thought he had a 30% lead. Being that out of touch with his own district is possibly part of the reason he lost.
I heard that the day before the election Cantor was in DC at a fundraiser rather than back in his district doing last-minute campaigning.
I like the stat where his campaign spent more on steak than Brat raised in total.
Cantor was Well Done.
Bitching about Cantor being too "establishment" is hilarious. That's how shit gets done for your Party, like getting Batshit Bachmann onto the House Intelligence Committee, or stocking the Science and Technology Committee with climate change-deniers, Jesus dinosaur riders and McRapist fans. But obstructing the President isn't enough, we don't want our people to even talk to him.
Just proves the most rabid of the Teabaggers dont want to do shit with government, except destroy it.
Quote from: Ed Anger on June 11, 2014, 08:58:38 AM
I like the stat where his campaign spent more on steak than Brat raised in total.
Cantor was Well Done.
:lol:
Good Riddance I say.
Beaten by the Brat.
The Cantor campaign should have used this Ramones tune as their campaign song. :P
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HUGeA2lur4
Ah, well, there is always the elections. :D
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 11, 2014, 09:08:54 AM
Bitching about Cantor being too "establishment" is hilarious. That's how shit gets done for your Party, like getting Batshit Bachmann onto the House Intelligence Committee, or stocking the Science and Technology Committee with climate change-deniers, Jesus dinosaur riders and McRapist fans. But obstructing the President isn't enough, we don't want our people to even talk to him.
Just proves the most rabid of the Teabaggers dont want to do shit with government, except destroy it.
Yeah just like people who decided to a foist a junior senator on the nation.
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 11, 2014, 04:42:46 AM
Also how bad is GOP internal polling? Romney thought he was winning, Cantor thought he had a double digit lead. This should worry them.
I read an interesting piece the other day taking the position that accurate polling is impossible in an era where people rely on a mobile phones more than a land lines because it is impossible to obtain a representative sample like the good old days when the telephone book database would do.
The pre electon polls were alos badly off for our Provincial election as another example.
On the bright side we might get back to politicians making decisions based on principle rather than polling data.
Quote from: garbon on June 11, 2014, 10:15:39 AM
Yeah just like people who decided to a foist a junior senator on the nation.
Yeah, I have no idea what people were thinking in 1960.
Looks like he's going to step down as leader in a minute.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 11, 2014, 11:30:24 AM
Quote from: garbon on June 11, 2014, 10:15:39 AM
Yeah just like people who decided to a foist a junior senator on the nation.
Yeah, I have no idea what people were thinking in 1960.
Is that consider a highlight? :unsure:
Quote from: garbon on June 11, 2014, 10:15:39 AM
Yeah just like people who decided to a foist a junior senator on the nation.
"Foist?" :lmfao:
You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."Elected" is the word you are looking for.
:lol: :lmfao: :lol: :lmfao:
Quote from: derspiess on June 11, 2014, 12:44:03 PM
:lol: :lmfao: :lol: :lmfao:
:huh: :) :lol: :lmfao: :huh: :) :lol: :lmfao:
I'll pass on that opportunity.
Quote from: garbon on June 11, 2014, 12:47:03 PM
I'll pass on that opportunity.
I think the opportunity was foisted upon you.
I need a foist towelette.
Quote from: garbon on June 11, 2014, 12:47:03 PM
I'll pass on that opportunity.
There's a foist time for everything.
Quote from: DGuller on June 11, 2014, 01:35:20 PM
Quote from: garbon on June 11, 2014, 12:47:03 PM
I'll pass on that opportunity.
There's a foist time for everything.
This deserves a foist in the face. :P
Quote from: Malthus on June 11, 2014, 01:43:10 PM
Quote from: DGuller on June 11, 2014, 01:35:20 PM
There's a foist time for everything.
This deserves a foist in the face. :P
Get there foistest with the mostest.
Y'all are getting foisty in here.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on June 11, 2014, 01:47:15 AM
If the GOP base is going to require candidates to be more conservative than Cantor than whoever they back in the presidential primaries is going to lose to the establishment candidate once again or get creamed in the national election.
I'm again reminded of the teacher in my H.S who told us, in class, in early 1980 that Ronald Reagan wouldn't be the Republican nominee that fall, because the party leadership wouldn't allow him to win the nomination because he was far too conservative to win in the general election.
A pretty detailed breakdown of the demographics of the electorate involved in this primary.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/frame_game/2014/06/eric_cantor_s_extreme_voters_the_house_majority_leader_s_7th_district_primary.html
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/06/ted-cruz-eric-cantor-loss-celebrate-107733.html?hp=l13
Not exactly a case of collegiality within the party. Seems the tea party is spending all it's time on rooting out heretics. I'll laugh when Cruz gets primaried.
Quote from: Viking on June 12, 2014, 06:56:34 AM
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/06/ted-cruz-eric-cantor-loss-celebrate-107733.html?hp=l13
Not exactly a case of collegiality within the party. Seems the tea party is spending all it's time on rooting out heretics. I'll laugh when Cruz gets primaried.
The funny thing about the Brat upset victory is that the Tea Party put practically nothing into that campaign, yet rushed in to hail the victory almost as if they were taking credit for it.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on June 12, 2014, 05:58:33 AM
A pretty detailed breakdown of the demographics of the electorate involved in this primary.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/frame_game/2014/06/eric_cantor_s_extreme_voters_the_house_majority_leader_s_7th_district_primary.html
Slate? No thanks.
Quote from: derspiess on June 12, 2014, 09:31:15 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on June 12, 2014, 05:58:33 AM
A pretty detailed breakdown of the demographics of the electorate involved in this primary.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/frame_game/2014/06/eric_cantor_s_extreme_voters_the_house_majority_leader_s_7th_district_primary.html
Slate? No thanks.
Numbers don't change just because they're printed in Slate.
Not sure how that's helpful. GOP primary in one part of Virginia vs the whole of the USA. Surely it'd help more to compare primary voters to the district/state?
Yeah amazing such a low number of self-professed Liberals voting in a Republican Primary.
Quote from: Valmy on June 12, 2014, 10:01:40 AM
Yeah amazing such a low number of self-professed Liberals voting in a Republican Primary.
Since it is a safe republican seat, perhaps they should?