Awful/good news in Greece.
QuoteA time for serious reflection
By Nikos Chrysoloras
The ongoing crackdown on Golden Dawn, Greece's neo-Nazi gang, is convincing: several MPs, including its leader, and senior party members have been arrested on charges of homicide, attempted homicide, money laundering, blackmail, grievous bodily harm, and other serious crimes. Also, Greek Parliament is set to vote a law pulling state funding from Golden Dawn or any other party whose leaders have been involved in similar criminal activities.
However, it is too early to speak of a Golden Dawn "twilight." We need to bear in mind that we are not talking about a typical far-right party, even by the stretched standards of European extremism. Numerous members of "Chryssi Avgi," as it is called in Greek, casually exchange Nazi salutes among themselves and have been involved in deadly attacks against immigrants and activists, with 34-year-old rapper Pavlos Fyssas being just the latest tragic casualty on a long list of victims. The judicial crackdown that has been unfolding over the last few days shows that the country's authorities had enough incriminating evidence to go after Golden Dawn much earlier. The fact that it took the murder of a Greek citizen to motivate them while earlier incidents, mainly involving immigrants, went largely unpunished is a troubling observation.
The infiltration of extremists in the country's police and military forces is even more alarming: several senior police officers, including two leadership-rank officials, have been forced to resign or were stripped of their duties over the last two weeks as a result of the investigation into Golden Dawn. The same happened with the head of the counter-espionage unit of the Greek Intelligence Agency, while two police officers were also arrested on Saturday, together with the Golden Dawn MPs. Extremists are also to be found in the ranks the Greek armed forces, with the union of the special forces' reservists essentially calling for a coup d' etat a few days ago. The call seemed to be serious enough for the chief prosecutor of the country's highest court to convene an emergency evening meeting. Due to the sensitivity of the issue, involving high-ranking echelons of the security establishment, we may never know how deep the cancer has spread. What is certain though is that this "anomaly" is almost unique in the EU, a corner of this planet where democracy and the rule of law were thought to be safe from "uniformed interventions." Yet decisive action is only being taken now – and it is long overdue.
The most serious question, however, is why hundreds of thousands of Greeks wanted to vote for this party, which never made any effort to hide its true face. A few days before the national elections of June 17, 2012, the spokesperson of Golden Dawn had physically assaulted and harassed two leftists MPs, live on television. Polls showed that party support went up right after the event, not down. Nor can Greeks claim that they were not aware that the MPs they elected into Parliament are Nazis. After all, many have tattoos of the Swastika on their chests. In fact, even after the murder of Pavlos Fyssas, and despite the fact that there was compelling evidence that Golden Dawn was involved in the incident, the party was still polling in third place, albeit weakened. Before the murder, there were even analysts predicting that the fascists would get second place in next May's European Parliament elections, since their party was already polling at 15 percent of the electoral body. Also, 22 percent of Golden Dawn supporters responded in a recent poll that they voted for it because of its Nazi ideology. Nowhere else in Europe do pollsters report a similar prevalence of fascist ideals.
Obviously, the crisis was instrumental in the resurgence of extremism. Next time they discuss Greece, EU leaders should be aware that there are limits to how much you can impose on a democratic society before it implodes. The events of the last weeks are a tragic reminder of the shadow of extremism gathering around us. Nevertheless, the fact that there are no popular parties of this magnitude of extremism in most other European states, even in countries like Spain where unemployment levels are comparable to Greece's, shows that there is also something idiosyncratic, and deeply Greek, in the rise of the Golden Dawn. These thugs have built on pre-existing ideas, popular among segments of our society – namely homophobia, xenophobia, anti-semitism and intolerance. The fact that these ideas didn't have "official" political representation before the crisis does not mean that they were not there nor that there was an overlapping consensus of Greek society against them. It just shows that they were subdued because of the clientelistic practices of the two largest parties, which kept them silent in exchange for perks. Now that there is no money left with which to bribe those extremists, they have turned to bite the hands they were feeding them.
Until recently, one million Greeks had said that they are going to vote for Golden Dawn in opinion polls. I despise them. No matter the hardships people are going through, there is no excuse for those who fall under the spell of Nazism. Just ask the Germans. As for the rest of the political system, the so-called mainstream parties of the "constitutional arc," there is an urgent need to reflect on what can be done, especially in Greece's educational system, to make sure that extremist discourse becomes marginalized. We have been tested on our democratic resolve, and some of us failed. Let's face it. If we save the next generation from darkness, at least some of the shame may go away.
I read there are around a hundred immigrants missing, presumed dead that could have some link to Golden Dawn's thuggery. What's worrying, despite this clearly necessary step, is that I've seen lines from Ministers saying how seriously they take this right-wing violence and so on - but you can't ignore left-wing violence. Which strikes me as nonsense (and rings a bit of Weimar). I must have missed the spate of Communist inspired murders that have seized Athens.
And of course a New Democracy cabinet Minister is also the author of a book promisingly called 'Jews - The Whole Truth', which points to how mainstream the views are that Golden Dawn (like the Nazis) have taken to their extreme. Similarly just 2 months ago New Democracy were apparently considering some form of electoral pact with Golden Dawn to 'defend the nation', presumably from SYRIZA and, no doubt Jewish, financiers.
Can't help but think this is linked:
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-13-890_en.htm
Meanwhile, appropriately enough, Greece has a tragedy and Italy has a farce:
QuoteSilvio Berlusconi calls for fresh Italian elections 'as soon as possible'
The former prime minister declares he is 'ready to take up the battle' despite signs of rebellion in his own party
Lizzy Davies in Rome
The Guardian, Sunday 29 September 2013 18.52 BST
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Berlusconi said: 'The only way is to proceed with conviction to elections as soon as possible. The polls tell us we will win.' Photograph: Tiziana Fabi/AFP/Getty Images
An embattled but bellicose Silvio Berlusconi called on Sunday for fresh Italian elections to be held as soon as possible, even as signs of rebellion in his own party grew and the country's president indicated that the country would only return to the polls as a last resort.
In a drastic and much-criticised move that reignited fears for the health of the eurozone's third-largest economy, the former prime minister and centre-right leader announced on Saturday he was pulling his ministers out of Enrico Letta's ever-fraught grand coalition government.
On Sunday in a telephone address to supporters of his Freedom People (PdL) party on his 77th birthday, Berlusconi declared he was "ready to take up the battle again". He said: "The only way is to proceed with conviction to elections as soon as possible. All the opinion polls tell us that we will win."
One of his keenest supporters, former topless model and former equal opportunities minister Mara Carfagna, lauded him with a phrase attributed to Albert Einstein: "Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds."
Most of the media delivered scathing verdicts on the billionaire politician's gambit and, in a wry joke at a peace conference organised by the community of Sant'Egidio, Letta asked the audience to say "some prayers for Italy". The prime minister is expected to address parliament early this week.
Worryingly for Berlusconi, much of the criticism came from within his own party, which he recently relaunched as Forza Italia.
Four of the five ministers whose resignations were announced on Saturday voiced misgivings about the centre-right's direction, which Beatrice Lorenzin, outgoing health minister, described as tending towards "a radical right".
The most stinging blow came from Angelino Alfano, Berlusconi's right-hand man, who has been acting as deputy prime minister and interior minister in the Letta coalition. He said that if Forza Italia were to be dominated by "extreme positions", he would have to be "a Berlusconi-ite in a different way".
Perhaps in view of this highly unusual dissent, the three-time prime minister later issued a statement appearing to soften his stance and said the PdL would support a 2014 budget next month if it was "truly useful" to Italy.
Berlusconi blamed his decision to withdraw support from Letta's government on what he said was a failure to pass economic measures − notably a postponement of a sales tax hike due to take effect this week. Keen to point the finger at the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) for the crisis, the Berlusconi family newspaper Il Giornale headlined its website "Letta brings down the government".
The prime minister from the PD gave this suggestion short shrift, saying that Berlusconi was motivated "exclusively" by his own affairs.
Berlusconi suffered his first definitive conviction in two decades of legal tussles on 1 August, and the ensuing sentence for tax fraud ratcheted up tension on the fragile coalition formed in late April.
A senate committee vote due on Friday is expected to strip him of his seat in the senate, and by mid-October he will have to decide whether he wants to serve his sentence under house arrest or in community service.
Some analysts saw the decision to pull the plug on the government as the last roll of the dice for a life-long gambler who felt the trap closing in. However, they said, it is a big gamble.
Returning to Rome from Naples (SUNday)on Sunday night before a crucial meeting with Letta, president Giorgio Napolitano reiterated his desire to find an alternative parliamentary majority for a Letta government. Engaged in frantic number-crunching and horse-trading, some senior PD figures said they were optimistic that such a solution could be found.
The February election that led to a prolonged period of political uncertainty gave the centre-left bloc a commanding majority in the lower house of parliament but a wafer thin lead in the senate, or upper house. To ensure Letta a workable majority, extra support would have to be secured from rebellious senators in, for instance, the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and PdL.
But, if this proves impossible, Italy might eventually have to return to the polls. "It is tradition for the president to dissolve parliament early when it isn't possible to create a majority and a government for the good of the country," acknowledged Napolitano.
The shockwaves sent through Italy's already fragile political landscape raised fears of a rise in Italy's borrowing costs at the opening of markets (MON)on Monday morning.
Fabrizio Saccomanni, the economy minister, sought to play down those fears, telling business daily Il Sole 24 Ore he had faith in the credibility which he said Italy had built up in recent months.
"And I also think the uncertainty connected to the government's instability has been largely already factored in during the last few weeks," he said.
But with unemployment at 12%- − nearly 40% among young people − and a public debt of €2tn (£1.75tn), Italy's recession-mired economy is in desperate need of decisive government.
So this whole EU thing, you guys still going to go with that?
Austrian elections yesterday. The existing coalition of Social Democrats (27%) and Conservatives (23.8%) loses votes but will be able to continue in government. The formerly "mass-parties" reach their lowest resultsince the war. Right-wing FPÖ had some gains (21.4%), but not as many as they could have - New protest parties (Team Stronach by the Austro-Canadian billionaire Frank Stronach 5.8% and libertarian NEOS 4.8%) sucked up some votes and defectors from BZÖ who lost a total of 7+% and will not make it into parliament.
Noteworthy: anti-EU parties (FPÖ, Stronach, NEOS) will hold ~30% of parliament seats which may be an issue on many EU-related votes which often require a 2/3 majority. In Austrian politics, the EU regularly serves as a convenient scapegoat and therefore has a very low standing in the public eye. Pro-EU sentiment in Austria is much lower than in most countries (even though Austria is one of the countries that benefited the most of the 2004 Eastern Expansion).
Also, the voter turnout was the lowest since WW2, with ~66%, a drop from 79% in 2008. For the first time, the non-voters exceed the votes for the strongest party (Social Democrats at 27%).
This is kind of scary from Greece:
QuoteLeftist militants claim Golden Dawn killings as rally honours 1973 uprising
As demonstrators commemorate anniversary, anti-establishment leftists vow to move far-rightists to 'the dustbin of history'
Share 799
Helena Smith in Athens
theguardian.com, Sunday 17 November 2013 17.02 GMT
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Athens: protesters commemorate a 1973 student uprising that led to the overthrow of a military dictatorship. Photograph: Orestis Panagiotou/EPA
Thousands of Greeks, marking the 40th anniversary of the Athens Polytechnic uprising – an event that would trigger the end of military rule in Greece – took to the streets on Sunday after socialist militants claimed responsibility for the murder of two members of the extremist Golden Dawn party.
As demonstrators prepared to commemorate the symbolic date, a previously unknown group of anti-establishment leftists raised the political temperature by vowing to relocate the far-rightists to "the dustbin of history".
"The Militant People's Revolutionary Forces assumes responsibility for the political executions of ... the neo-Nazis," said the gang in an 18-page proclamation sent to a local news portal.
"The armed attack-response ... is the starting point of the people's campaign to send the neo-Nazi scum of Golden Dawn where they belong, the dustbin of history."
Amid heightened fears of escalating violence in the debt-stricken country, the assailants described the drive-by shootings as retribution for the fatal stabbing of Pavlos Fyssas, a leftwing rapper killed by a self-confessed Golden Dawn supporter in September. And, in chilling language, warned more attacks would follow.
"The revolutionary movement has to proceed with the material destruction of the infrastructure of Golden Dawn and in a coordinated [fashion] attack those who belong to it ... their heads should be cracked open with a hammer, their hands cut off, by way of example, with a sickle."
Some 8,000 policemen were seconded to patrol the boulevards of Athens as a sea of Greeks paid tribute to those killed when the military junta sent a tank crashing through the polytechnic's gates to repress a student revolt.
At least 24 are believed to have died in the bloody suppression with most of the casualties among the 150,000 non-student civilians who had converged on the streets outside the campus in an unprecedented display of opposition to the regime.
For a nation that has become increasingly polarised in the midst of economic crisis, the event is a defining moment, hallowed in the minds of many as the catalyst of the collapse of seven years of military rule only decades after a brutal left-right civil war.
"The mood this year is very similar to 1973 when there was a feeling that the junta was disintegrating and people were full of expectation," said Panos Garganas, a prominent leftist and editor of the newspaper Workers Solidarity.
"After five years of worsening levels of austerity and poverty there is a sense that things are coming to an end, that the situation cannot continue," he told the Guardian as he marched through the streets. "We give the government six months at most."
Dissatisfaction with an administration called to enforce deeply unpopular spending cuts in return for international funds to prop up the country's moribund economy has been reflected in rising support for the radical left main opposition Syriza party.
A poll released on Saturday showed the neo-fascist Golden Dawn also gaining in strength in the aftermath of the November 16th attack, which saw two of its members gunned down outside a local party branch in Athens.
Despite accusations of being a criminal organisation – and a government crackdown that has seen its leader and two other deputies imprisoned pending trial – backing for the anti-immigrant group grew by 2.2 percentage points over the past month. With 8.8% of the vote, the far-rightists remained Greece's third biggest political force according to the survey conducted by Alcofor for the weekly Proto Thema newspaper.
As in 1973, radio broadcasts were boomed from the campus on Sunday – only this time by fired employees from the former public broadcaster ERT denouncing the belt-tightening policies of prime minister Antonis Samaras and his two-party coalition.
The protest march, which traditionally ends at the US embassy to denounce Washington's controversial support for the regime, followed two days of unusually poignant commemorations at the polytechnic, with politicians, unionists and ordinary Greeks laying wreaths at the site.
"With our country basically under foreign occupation, the slogans and lessons of the uprising are as relevant today as they were back then," said Christina Minassa, selling leftist literature at a stall outside the campus. "The battle against fascism goes on. In Greece those on the left have suffered greatly."
President Karolos Papoulias, who has become an increasingly vocal critic of the austerity meted out by the EU and IMF in exchange for aid, called the student rebellion "deeply didactic".
"The way in which they laid claim to the freedom of all of us ... is deeply didactic," he said. "Their battle was decisive and dynamic but peaceful, they didn't promote violence, they suffered violence," he said in a clear reference to the resurgence of political violence now haunting the country.
It is kind of natural, isn`t it? Decades of mismanagement collapses the country, seeing violent extremists come to the forefront and fight each other. Sounds Politics 101.
Quote from: Razgovory on September 29, 2013, 08:47:25 PM
So this whole EU thing, you guys still going to go with that?
The approval ratings of the EU are way higher than those of the US Congress. :P
Quote from: Zanza on November 19, 2013, 11:59:17 AM
The approval ratings of the EU are way higher than those of the US Congress. :P
:lol:
Though it is worth saying lots of national leaders have very low approval ratings and, I think for the first time ever, French approval dropped below British approval of the EU :o
The FN worry me a lot.
QuoteIt is kind of natural, isn`t it? Decades of mismanagement collapses the country, seeing violent extremists come to the forefront and fight each other. Sounds Politics 101.
Also push a country to a depression and see what happens to their political system. Rinse and repeat.
What kind of scares me is I remember reading an interview with a Golden Dawn leader when they first came to prominence. He thought they'd win power but his view was the current government would last. Then, tired of austerity and angry, Greece would end up voting in SYRIZA (the democratic but extreme left). After that in his view Golden Dawn would win and, it was implied, would only need to win once. It's not that implausible given how fragmented Greek politics looks.
I find it unbelievable that they're still more popular than they were in the last election despite all the violence and arrests of their leadership (though down from 12-15%) :blink:
Here's the BBC Europe Correspondent on France:
QuoteFrance: A troubled Republic
COMMENTS (328)
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Protesters shout during Armistice event attended by French President Francois Hollande
Catcalls have sounded out even at Armistice events
Watch France. Its mood is fractious. President Francois Hollande has the lowest approval rating of any president since the founding of the Fifth Republic 55 years ago.
There is an incipient taxpayer's revolt. There are 3.3 million people out of work. Growth is anaemic and France's credit rating has just been downgraded for the second time in two years. In Brussels and Berlin, it is the country which worries officials and politicians more than any other in Europe.
Yesterday President Hollande was booed on the Champs Elysees. The occasion was a solemn event to remember the fallen from World War One. That did not stop cries of "Hollande resign" and "Socialist dictatorship" from a small group of protestors.
The interruptions, which were resented by most in the crowd, reflect a rebellious mood in France. The protests have been widely condemned in France, but a former defence minister under the last President, Nicolas Sarkozy, whilst condemning the protests, added that "the anger of the French people is immense" and saying "there is a pre-insurrectional mood in the country".
Fiscal dilemma
The strain is showing. Francois Hollande twists and turns as he tries to reduce the budget deficit while resisting cutting public spending, which is the highest in Europe. Here is his dilemma: he fears that reducing spending, embracing far-reaching pension reforms or freeing up the labour market will bring his natural supporters onto the streets in anger. So he has favoured increasing taxes rather than spending cuts.
There are signs of a spreading taxpayer's revolt. Last month thousands of taxpayers in Brittany took to the streets wearing "bonnets rouges". They drew their inspiration from the famous Red Bonnet revolt in the 17th Century against tax rises.
What prompted this was opposition to a green tax on trucks from January. It provoked farmers, small businessmen and workers from the mass food production industry to take direct action against the technology to be used in the scheme.
Two dozen of the new motorway toll sensors have been destroyed and a gantry to monitor truck movements has been burned. The government has, for the time being, suspended the tax but it was intended to raise 1.5bn euros (£1.25bn) - a key element in trying to reduce France's budget.
The tax "revolt" has spread to cities like Lyon and Marseille. There are planned protests against a rise in VAT scheduled for January. Others are fighting paying a tax on overtime on which many workers depend. Even football clubs are threatening action because players object to paying 75% on earnings above a million euros.
France at 'limit'
President Hollande is also feeling the squeeze from Brussels. France has already been given an extra two years, until 2015, to reach a deficit of 3%. The EU Commission doubts France will meet that target.
The EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso is now openly outspoken in his message to France.
"The fiscal policy in France has reached its limit of acceptability," he said. "France is by far the country [in the EU] where companies pay the highest taxes and that's a problem for growth and employment."
The Commission president wants public spending reduced instead.
The Commission is predicting growth of 0.9% next year, but both France and the rest of the eurozone needs much higher growth than that. The government in Paris argues that it has implemented tax breaks for small businesses and that wage negotiations have become more flexible but the president, like never before, is under growing pressure to turn France around.
In these difficult times the far-right Front National of Marine Le Pen is gaining in the polls. One poll put the party on 28%, the same as the Socialists. Another poll puts the Front National out in front when voters are asked about the European elections next year.
From tomorrow, the European Commission begins delivering its annual verdict on the EU economies and their budget programmes. Particular attention will be focused on France.
I think Europe as a whole should worry when France is in a 'pre-insurrectional mood' :lol:
Francois Hollande's approval ratings are very nearly as low as the US Congress - at 15% and he's barely been in office a year :bleeding:
Although that article has so much in it to make you love French - protest, a tax revolt taking inspiration from the 17th century :wub:
Greece was not "pushed" anywhere. :rolleyes: You spend decades overspending on welfare and stuff with inefficient and corrupt systems like a bunch of retards and you end up with a country like Greece. Mark my words, Greece is far from being the last European country reaching this stage :P
I wish SYRIZA would win an election.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 19, 2013, 12:10:28 PM
Though it is worth saying lots of national leaders have very low approval ratings and,
Empress Angela I: 77% approval
QuoteI think for the first time ever, French approval dropped below British approval of the EU :o
The FN worry me a lot.
Yes. Let's see how that develops.
Quote
Though it is worth saying lots of national leaders have very low approval ratings and, I think for the first time ever, French approval dropped below British approval of the EU :o
cool, so we can end the insane farming subsidies then, right?
Quote from: Tamas on November 19, 2013, 12:23:05 PM
Greece was not "pushed" anywhere. :rolleyes: You spend decades overspending on welfare and stuff with inefficient and corrupt systems like a bunch of retards and you end up with a country like Greece. Mark my words, Greece is far from being the last European country reaching this stage :P
Greek public spending was below the EU average for decades. The problem was rampant corruption and tax evasion, plus unnecessary, heavy state regulation of the economy.
I think the problem was that the Eurozone was a political project. Italy was let in though everyone knew they weren't meeting the criteria, because they were a founding member. The lira didn't spend two years on ERM as it had to, their debt was over 100% of GDP not the Eurozone requirement of 60%. Greece was let in though everyone knew the statistics were fudged, for political reasons. A lot of what's happened since is that the economic problems of a political currency union are coming to the fore. The Euro isn't an optimal currency union and we're seeing that.
And Greece was given lots of loans by European bodies and the IMF for long enough that German and French (and other European) banks could cut their exposure to Greek debt. So when they finally had some form of default it only affected domestic creditors and Cyprus. All this so Greece can have a 'sustainable' debt level of 120% of GDP, if everything goes to plan (which it still isn't) by 2020.
Also the EU's policies for countries in crisis have worked in the Baltic. But the IMF said they thought there were four criteria for them to work: a small, flexible, open economy with a liberal labour market. That doesn't cover Greece, Spain, Portugal or Italy. Given that I'm not sure it's the right policy.
Well, ultimately it is not the loaner`s fault if the loan-taker blows the money on hookers and booze.
And in my opinion, there is no good system which can keep bad setups like Greece or Spain afloat, because if it keeps them afloat it cannot be good.
Quote from: Zanza on November 19, 2013, 12:36:38 PM
Yes. Let's see how that develops.
It's interesting. I was listening to Nigel Farage on this rejecting any deal with the FN. His view was that the party itself is still deeply unpleasant and too much of it is unreformed, but he likes Marine Le Pen quite a lot. I wonder how the perception is in France. They're polling between 25-30% which is more than enough to get to the run-off round and I wonder how many people would vote for, say, Hollande against Le Pen in the second round? Is she perceived to have done enough?
Quote from: Tamas on November 19, 2013, 12:42:52 PM
Well, ultimately it is not the loaner`s fault if the loan-taker blows the money on hookers and booze.
I disagree, it goes both ways. If you don't do your due diligence and lend someone money that they can't afford you deserve to lose it.
QuoteAnd in my opinion, there is no good system which can keep bad setups like Greece or Spain afloat, because if it keeps them afloat it cannot be good.
All sorts of countries can stay afloat. There's nothing good or bad about it. I mean Greece used to have permanent double-digit interest rates and absurdly high inflation. It wasn't a good system, but they then joined the Euro without any significant reform.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 19, 2013, 12:27:34 PM
I wish SYRIZA would win an election.
They're currently neck and neck with ND. Both are polling between 28-30%. Whichever won would then get an extra 50 seats in Parliament. Then Golden Dawn at around 9%, PASOK at 7%, the Communists (they're old school communists too) at around 6.5-7% and the anti-austerity right at around 5%.
Quotecool, so we can end the insane farming subsidies then, right?
If only :weep:
Edit: What's really amazing is that according to some polls it looks like Fianna Fail might win the next election. Truly the black swan of Irish politics :blink: :bleeding:
Them and Fine Gael are both in the mid-20s, Sinn Fein's polling as high as 20% (:bleeding:) and even the ULA (Marxists) are looking like winning a few seats.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 19, 2013, 12:16:54 PM
Although that article has so much in it to make you love French - protest, a tax revolt taking inspiration from the 17th century :wub:
Aux barricades!
Politics seems to radicalizing everywhere in the Western World these days...well except Germany.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 19, 2013, 12:39:56 PM
Greek public spending was below the EU average for decades.
Do you mean in absolute terms or as a % of GDP?
QuoteAlso the EU's policies for countries in crisis have worked in the Baltic. But the IMF said they thought there were four criteria for them to work: a small, flexible, open economy with a liberal labour market. That doesn't cover Greece, Spain, Portugal or Italy. Given that I'm not sure it's the right policy.
Flexibility, openness, and a liberal labor market are choices.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 19, 2013, 11:22:46 AM
This is kind of scary from Greece:
I have a personal theory.
A decent sized portion of western societies are bitter, disaffected, and excluded from the mainstream--I'm talking about socially as much as economically. Lets say 30-40%. When times are really good, or a strong us vs. them cause is out there (lets bomb people!), they may rally to mainstream parteis. But when times are bad, and your major parties look weak, they are prone to extremism.
I strongly doubt most Greeks will ever go for Golden Dawn, just like I strongly doubt most French will go for Le Pen. I just don't see the majority of Greeks openly accepting the racism, xenophobia, and thuggery. These groups have a ceiling that I don't think they can break through, and that ceiling is a good bit under 50%.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 19, 2013, 12:51:26 PM
Do you mean in absolute terms or as a % of GDP?
% of GDP. In absolute terms Greece is down there with Cyprus and Malta given that their economy is 2% of the EU total.
QuoteFlexibility, openness, and a liberal labor market are choices.
Yep, but the IMF meant you already have those in place. I think they did a study that showed it takes about 4-5 years for the benefits of those sort of structural reforms to have an effect - look at Germany. But also if the benefit is basically that your economy can quickly adjust then that needs to be ready before a sledgehammer's taken to it. Otherwise you'll get the economic cost of the recession but the ability to adjust is coming in piecemeal.
But once their in place you can have this sort of adjustment as the Baltic states did. I think that's why Ireland - despite their many problems with Europe at the minute - are probably doing the best out of them all.
QuoteI strongly doubt most Greeks will ever go for Golden Dawn, just like I strongly doubt most French will go for Le Pen. I just don't see the majority of Greeks openly accepting the racism, xenophobia, and thuggery. These groups have a ceiling that I don't think they can break through, and that ceiling is a good bit under 50%.
I agree. The problem I think is that the extremes' ability to capture power is increased with their vote, even if it's short of 50%. It can further damage the political mainstream by discrediting them as they form cordons sanitaires, look at Flanders/Belgium in general, which feeds the victim complex the extremes tend to rely on. In addition lots of European countries have systems to top-up the winning party, in an attempt to make solid governments possible with PR. So in Greece I think you need around 35% to win a total majority. In Italy the largest party receives enough extra seats to take them to 50% of seats in Parliament, so Beppe Grillo only needs to improve his result from the last election by a few percentage points and there's a 5 Star government.
And obviously the extreme parties can cause lots of trouble even without ever winning an election. I find the political violence in Greece (where, to be fair, there's a history of political violence) what worries me most. Golden Dawn have apparently been doing it for ages but because they mainly targeted immigrants no-one cared. But their murders with left-wing random reprisal death squads is scary. That's the sort of atmosphere that can radicalise an entire country.
Quote from: Valmy on November 19, 2013, 12:50:58 PM
Aux barricades!
Politics seems to radicalizing everywhere in the Western World these days...well except Germany.
I don't know if it's radicalising or just that the old centre can't hold. Part of me thinks that the perception is that the old centre has failed, maybe in the same way as, by the 70s, the old model of democratic politics and union bosses had failed. I always thought ideology was becoming less important because we were largely moving to a more managerial politics, but I think that was wrong.
I think this is in part why populism is working a bit more now and why we kind of need it.
Quote from: Valmy on November 19, 2013, 12:50:58 PM
Politics seems to radicalizing everywhere in the Western World these days...well except Germany.
We had an anti-Euro party almost making it into parliament in the last election. They are probably more like the UKIP then the FN though.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 19, 2013, 12:44:13 PM
Quote from: Zanza on November 19, 2013, 12:36:38 PM
Yes. Let's see how that develops.
It's interesting. I was listening to Nigel Farage on this rejecting any deal with the FN. His view was that the party itself is still deeply unpleasant and too much of it is unreformed, but he likes Marine Le Pen quite a lot. I wonder how the perception is in France. They're polling between 25-30% which is more than enough to get to the run-off round and I wonder how many people would vote for, say, Hollande against Le Pen in the second round? Is she perceived to have done enough?
That's Hollande's dream scenario. Only way he would win, still with a lesser margin than Chirac's, African-style majority. This applies even more to any centrist or conservative candidate.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 19, 2013, 12:44:13 PM
Quote from: Zanza on November 19, 2013, 12:36:38 PM
Yes. Let's see how that develops.
It's interesting. I was listening to Nigel Farage on this rejecting any deal with the FN. His view was that the party itself is still deeply unpleasant and too much of it is unreformed, but he likes Marine Le Pen quite a lot. I wonder how the perception is in France. They're polling between 25-30% which is more than enough to get to the run-off round and I wonder how many people would vote for, say, Hollande against Le Pen in the second round? Is she perceived to have done enough?
Against Hollande? The last time this scenario happenned, a lot of people pinched their nose and voted Chirac. But with Holland, I'm guessing a lot of people will pinch their nose vote and vote Marine Le Pen. How much? Enough to reach close to 30%, not enough to have an FN president, and by far.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 19, 2013, 01:04:14 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 19, 2013, 12:51:26 PM
Do you mean in absolute terms or as a % of GDP?
% of GDP. In absolute terms Greece is down there with Cyprus and Malta given that their economy is 2% of the EU total.
Fair enough. But keep in mind the EU is as a whole is no hotbed of cutthroat Anglo Saxon capitalism. For example I believe France has the highest % of GDP in the public sector in the world.
QuoteYep, but the IMF meant you already have those in place. I think they did a study that showed it takes about 4-5 years for the benefits of those sort of structural reforms to have an effect - look at Germany. But also if the benefit is basically that your economy can quickly adjust then that needs to be ready before a sledgehammer's taken to it. Otherwise you'll get the economic cost of the recession but the ability to adjust is coming in piecemeal.
Are you sure you're paraphrasing that correctly? What I would expect to see is that the political process takes about that long to free up its labor market after a country goes begging to the IMF, rather than instantaneous adoption of all recommendations and a 4 year lag for them to take effect.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 19, 2013, 01:47:08 PM
Fair enough. But keep in mind the EU is as a whole is no hotbed of cutthroat Anglo Saxon capitalism. For example I believe France has the highest % of GDP in the public sector in the world.
True enough. I think France is 60% of GDP (or more!) and the EU average is around 50%. Greece wasn't quite as low as most of the new EU members (query for Tamas, according to these statistics Hungary is the only post-communist country that didn't seem to go through any version of shock therapy reforms, why?) or the Anglo-Saxons/Irish.
QuoteAre you sure you're paraphrasing that correctly? What I would expect to see is that the political process takes about that long to free up its labor market after a country goes begging to the IMF, rather than instantaneous adoption of all recommendations and a 4 year lag for them to take effect.
Define correctly :blush: It was the OECD not the IMF.
Basically the study looked at structural reforms in various countries over the past 30 years from when they're passed. So it's not about political process but effects after they have been adopted. It takes several years for there to be benefits. For example Schroeder's and Thatcher's reforms both took several years to see the benefit. It seems common sense, it's normally a reason that politicians are so wary to pass reforms. Very often they won't see the benefits, but their successor will.
In the context of tight monetary policy (still) and tighter fiscal policy, from an illiberal base structural reforms could take a very, very long time to work.
Your first fact is explained in my mind by the absence in Greece (AFAIK) of large SOEs. Greece doesn't have any state-owned car makers, electronics firms, ship builders, or aerospace companies to my knowledge. That's not quite the same thing as saying Greece is and has been virtuous about its public sector. It's eminently possible to have none of those and still have a bloated, overpaid civil service.
As to your second, I would be interested to see how the OECD defined "benefit." If they defined it as an increase in wages from before the reforms, then 4-5 years is not an unreasonable lag. If they define it more broadly, such as an increase in competitiveness, or a return to profitability, then 4-5 years seems awfully long to me.
as far as I know
Wuz a SYRIZA/PASOK/etc. joke. :(
:weep:
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 19, 2013, 06:25:41 PM
Your first fact is explained in my mind by the absence in Greece (AFAIK) of large SOEs. Greece doesn't have any state-owned car makers, electronics firms, ship builders, or aerospace companies to my knowledge. That's not quite the same thing as saying Greece is and has been virtuous about its public sector. It's eminently possible to have none of those and still have a bloated, overpaid civil service.
Actually Greece did. The economy was 75% owned by the public sector until 1990. They only dropped below 50% in 2008. It was like Eastern Europe.
What you say isn't necessarily an alternative to what I described - rampant corruption, tax evasion and an overbearing state :P
QuoteAs to your second, I would be interested to see how the OECD defined "benefit." If they defined it as an increase in wages from before the reforms, then 4-5 years is not an unreasonable lag. If they define it more broadly, such as an increase in competitiveness, or a return to profitability, then 4-5 years seems awfully long to me.
It depends on the structural reform. Reducing unemployment benefits , liberalising a market, getting rid of dual labour market structures all have different benefits. I think the OECD measured expected benefit after the reform. They showed that structural reforms do work as you expect, but they take time. Which makes sense. An economy can't turn on a dime and there's something vaguely Leninist about the idea that enough state reforms driven from the centre can rapidly change an entire economy.
Also some reforms feed on the state of the economy less. The labour market reforms will be very sensitive to the overall state of the economy, while liberalising an overly licensed market (way overdue all over continental Europe) probably won't be.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 19, 2013, 06:38:25 PM
What you say isn't necessarily an alternative to what I described - rampant corruption, tax evasion and an overbearing state :P
It may not be an alternative (I for one completely agree that tax avoidance is a major part of the Greek clusterfuck) but you never do mention Greek public employment as a part of the problem and you at times (such as with this theme about low public spending/GDP) seem to be doing your best to put the most positive spin on it.
QuoteI think the OECD measured expected benefit after the reform.
I'm *still* curious how they defined benefit.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 19, 2013, 06:48:38 PMIt may not be an alternative (I for one completely agree that tax avoidance is a major part of the Greek clusterfuck) but you never do mention Greek public employment as a part of the problem and you at times (such as with this theme about low public spending/GDP) seem to be doing your best to put the most positive spin on it.
I've never heard you mention tax as a problem without prompting :P
I don't necessarily think public employment was too high. Remember the example of the EU providing assistance to Greek tax offices. Many offices didn't even have computers. I think the Greek public sector is probably still unreformed in an extreme way and a lot of spending there wasn't on employees or public services but corruption and clientilism.
And I think there is a morality play (remember :P) about sinful, slothful, spendthrift Southerners that is mostly wrong and has driven really bad political choices by the Eurozone and it deserves dismissing.
Also I'm responding to Tamas who is particularly obsessed with the idea that all evil in this world stems from state spending. That's also worth dismissing.
I've never mentioned anything about Greece without prompting. I generally respond to what I perceive as misinformation.
The Economist has several times described the Greek civil service as bloated and overpaid.
Now apart from The Economist's word on it I don't have a large number of statistics to prove the case that they're (or were) overstaffed. But just flashing the morality play card doesn't make the issue of overstaffing disappear. Economic history is filled with examples of state governments (or smaller jurisdictions) which have gained power or kept themselves in power through the simple expedient of giving large numbers of voters a job.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 19, 2013, 07:03:36 PM
I don't necessarily think public employment was too high. Remember the example of the EU providing assistance to Greek tax offices. Many offices didn't even have computers. I think the Greek public sector is probably still unreformed in an extreme way and a lot of spending there wasn't on employees or public services but corruption and clientilism.
Unlikely as it seems, I was in a Greek tax office in 2005, iirc, waiting with my native Athenian friend/host as he tried to conduct some business in the afternoon. It was all typewriters and cigarette smoke, and the whole building seemed to be using one Xerox machine, if any. There were lots of agitated Greek-Americans trying to file on whatever land they owned in the old country, but my host was able to use his Athenian charm on the beyond-cliche female civil servants to cut the line and get us out of there with the necessary stamps before they closed.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 19, 2013, 07:19:07 PM
The Economist has several times described the Greek civil service as bloated and overpaid.
Now apart from The Economist's word on it I don't have a large number of statistics to prove the case that they're (or were) overstaffed. But just flashing the morality play card doesn't make the issue of overstaffing disappear.
I have some statistics. Greek public sector employment is 8% of the population or 18% of the labour force, by way of comparison, the US is 7% and 15% respectively. According to the OECD Greece has one of the lowest rates of public sector employment in the developed world.
Which isn't to say it's not bloated, I believe Greece also has one of the most centralised and inefficient (see Mihali's post) governments. As I say I think part of the problem with Greece isn't that they spend too much on their public sector it's that probably too little of that actually goes to the employees or delivering a service as compared to the corruption and clientilism of the two big parties.
Edit: So by way of comparison the Greeks have as many public employees as the US, roughly. But they've also got government spending way above US levels (nearer the EU average than not). Either those employees are super-efficient or there's something not quite right.
QuoteEconomic history is filled with examples of state governments (or smaller jurisdictions) which have gained power or kept themselves in power through the simple expedient of giving large numbers of voters a job.
But larger? I can't think of any examples outside of US municipal/state machine politics.
Would you mind letting me take a look at your source?
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 19, 2013, 07:29:19 PM
But larger? I can't think of any examples outside of US municipal/state machine politics.
Mexico under the PRI is the first example that comes to mind.
http://www.oecd.org/gov/pem/OECD%20HRM%20Profile%20-%20Greece.pdf
Can't find the labour force one I saw, but here's one from 2005:
http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/9789264075061-en/05/01/index.html?contentType=&itemId=/content/chapter/9789264061651-13-en&containerItemId=/content/book/9789264075061-en&accessItemIds=/content/book/9789264075061-en&mimeType=text/html
Edit: As I say I don't think the public sector matters a great deal. But I think a lot of the money is corrupt and clientilist - perhaps especially to those state owned enterprises, no doubt making deals with wealthy tax-evading Greeks. It's tough to privatise those though, given the current state of Greece's economy.
Actually your first link claims that in 2010 Greek general government was 7.9% of labor force, and they got 12.2% of GDP in compensation.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 19, 2013, 08:16:38 PM
Actually your first link claims that in 2010 Greek general government was 7.9% of labor force, and they got 12.2% of GDP in compensation.
Greece seems to be rather exceptional in that when you look at the numbers given by the OECD. The general government usually makes up 15.1% and takes 11.3% of GDP in compensation. So the few Greek civil servants are way overpaid compared to their counterparts in other countries.
Yup. And that's 12.2% of *GDP*, not compensation. So they're getting paid around 2.5 to 3 times the average compensation in Greece. No wonder they're rioting to keep their jobs.
Next it would helpful to have some comparitors for general government as % of labor force.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 20, 2013, 02:19:24 PM
Yup. And that's 12.2% of *GDP*, not compensation. So they're getting paid around 2.5 to 3 times the average compensation in Greece. No wonder they're rioting to keep their jobs.
Next it would helpful to have some comparitors for general government as % of labor force.
Here are the rest of the reports: http://www.oecd.org/gov/pem/hrpractices.htm
USA: 14.6% of labour force, 11% of GDP as compensation
France: 19.5% of labour force, 13.4% of GDP as compensation
Japan: 6.7% of labour force, 6.2% of GDP as compensation
Germany: 11.5% of labour force, 7.9% of GDP as compensation
United Kingdom: 17.5% of labour force, 11.4% of GDP as compensation
So not bloated at all. In fact horribly understaffed. And phenomenally overpaid.
Employment in General Government as a Percentage of the Labour Force (2000 and 2008)
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.oecd.org%2Fmedia%2Foecdorg%2Fdirectorates%2Fdirectorateforpublicgovernanceandterritorialdevelopment%2FPEM1.jpg&hash=c2a54603029b74495468522ddc68c9d5d2c17172)
Can't find a picture for the compensation.
Given that general government excludes SOEs, I wonder what explains the huge differences.
Does Norway, for example, have one teacher for every two students and one cop for every two houses?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 20, 2013, 02:34:07 PM
So not bloated at all. In fact horribly understaffed. And phenomenally overpaid.
I would imagine that having a public sector job in Greece, as in Spain, is a significant perk and thus often handed to people close to the establishment.
That's not always the case here*, but we do have a whole class of public sector jobs dedicated to feeding parasites with tax money.
* The rule here is the closer to local level you are the murkier things get. So a ministerial clerk exam will probably be quite fair, while one to select a clerk at the local urban planning department might not.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 20, 2013, 02:34:07 PM
So not bloated at all. In fact horribly understaffed. And phenomenally overpaid.
Look at the 'Composition of Employment' section in that first OECD link. I think the age composition of the Greek public sector may explain a lot.
QuoteThe reported composition of employment shows a workforce with a high representation of women and older employees. The percentage of female employees in central government, 58.7% in 2009, is substantially higher than the average of 49.5% among reporting OECD countries. In addition, Greece has a markedly older age composition, with only 4.1% of employees under the age of 30, compared to the OECD average of 11.7%. Furthermore, the percentage of staff in the public sector aged 50 years or older has risen dramatically since 2000, and now significantly exceeds that of the total labour force where it has remained stable. For further discussion of public sector employment statistics in Greece see OECD (2011) Public Governance Review – Greece.
In addition I think the Greeks spend far less on education than is the norm in the OECD. As I say I suspect a lot of Greek public sector spending isn't efficient or really about delivering public services.
QuoteGiven that general government excludes SOEs, I wonder what explains the huge differences.
Does Norway, for example, have one teacher for every two students and one cop for every two houses?
I'm not sure either. Maybe decentralisation? But even then apparently Greece is very centralised which means they're even more understaffed.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 20, 2013, 08:41:18 PM
Look at the 'Composition of Employment' section in that first OECD link. I think the age composition of the Greek public sector may explain a lot.
You think that explains why Greek public employees are making 2-3 times national average wages?
QuoteI'm not sure either. Maybe decentralisation? But even then apparently Greece is very centralised which means they're even more understaffed.
My understanding is general government includes all levels of government.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 20, 2013, 08:46:14 PMYou think that explains why Greek public employees are making 2-3 times national average wages?
I think it's part of it. According to another OECD bit (admittedly based on Greek statistics) apparently over 50% of Greek civil servants have over 20 years experience:
QuoteToday, Greece has a fairly old and rapidly ageing workforce in its central government by OECD standards. In 2009, 38% of central government civil servants were aged 50 years or older, compared to 23% in 2000.3 Almost 60% had been working for the government for more than 20 years.
I don't think the Greeks are great on performance related pay and I think they have a dual labour system too. Imagine the number of pay rises accrued in a civil service that has 60% of the staff employed for over 20 years.
Also imagine the administrative problems this will cause (partially exacerbated by hiring freezes) in a few years time.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 20, 2013, 08:46:14 PM
You think that explains why Greek public employees are making 2-3 times national average wages?
With such an older workforce seniority boni will be very significant, while pretty much non-existent in the private sector.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 19, 2013, 11:22:46 AM
This is kind of scary from Greece:
Well that's dumb. Why would they do that when GD are on the ropes as they are.