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Meanwhile in the Eurozone

Started by Sheilbh, September 29, 2013, 06:06:33 PM

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Capetan Mihali

"The internet's completely over. [...] The internet's like MTV. At one time MTV was hip and suddenly it became outdated. Anyway, all these computers and digital gadgets are no good. They just fill your head with numbers and that can't be good for you."
-- Prince, 2010. (R.I.P.)


Sheilbh

Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 19, 2013, 06:25:41 PM
Your first fact is explained in my mind by the absence in Greece (AFAIK) of large SOEs.  Greece doesn't have any state-owned car makers, electronics firms, ship builders, or aerospace companies to my knowledge.  That's not quite the same thing as saying Greece is and has been virtuous about its public sector.  It's eminently possible to have none of those and still have a bloated, overpaid civil service.
Actually Greece did. The economy was 75% owned by the public sector until 1990. They only dropped below 50% in 2008. It was like Eastern Europe.

What you say isn't necessarily an alternative to what I described - rampant corruption, tax evasion and an overbearing state :P

QuoteAs to your second, I would be interested to see how the OECD defined "benefit."  If they defined it as an increase in wages from before the reforms, then 4-5 years is not an unreasonable lag.  If they define it more broadly, such as an increase in competitiveness, or a return to profitability, then 4-5 years seems awfully long to me.
It depends on the structural reform. Reducing unemployment benefits , liberalising a market, getting rid of dual labour market structures all have different benefits. I think the OECD measured expected benefit after the reform. They showed that structural reforms do work as you expect, but they take time. Which makes sense. An economy can't turn on a dime and there's something vaguely Leninist about the idea that enough state reforms driven from the centre can rapidly change an entire economy.

Also some reforms feed on the state of the economy less. The labour market reforms will be very sensitive to the overall state of the economy, while liberalising an overly licensed market (way overdue all over continental Europe) probably won't be.
Let's bomb Russia!

Admiral Yi

Quote from: Sheilbh on November 19, 2013, 06:38:25 PM
What you say isn't necessarily an alternative to what I described - rampant corruption, tax evasion and an overbearing state :P

It may not be an alternative (I for one completely agree that tax avoidance is a major part of the Greek clusterfuck) but you never do mention Greek public employment as a part of the problem and you at times (such as with this theme about low public spending/GDP) seem to be doing your best to put the most positive spin on it.

QuoteI think the OECD measured expected benefit after the reform.

I'm *still* curious how they defined benefit.

Sheilbh

Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 19, 2013, 06:48:38 PMIt may not be an alternative (I for one completely agree that tax avoidance is a major part of the Greek clusterfuck) but you never do mention Greek public employment as a part of the problem and you at times (such as with this theme about low public spending/GDP) seem to be doing your best to put the most positive spin on it.
I've never heard you mention tax as a problem without prompting :P

I don't necessarily think public employment was too high. Remember the example of the EU providing assistance to Greek tax offices. Many offices didn't even have computers. I think the Greek public sector is probably still unreformed in an extreme way and a lot of spending there wasn't on employees or public services but corruption and clientilism.

And I think there is a morality play (remember :P) about sinful, slothful, spendthrift Southerners that is mostly wrong and has driven really bad political choices by the Eurozone and it deserves dismissing.

Also I'm responding to Tamas who is particularly obsessed with the idea that all evil in this world stems from state spending. That's also worth dismissing.
Let's bomb Russia!

Admiral Yi

I've never mentioned anything about Greece without prompting.  I generally respond to what I perceive as misinformation.

The Economist has several times described the Greek civil service as bloated and overpaid. 

Now apart from The Economist's word on it I don't have a large number of statistics to prove the case that they're (or were) overstaffed.  But just flashing the morality play card doesn't make the issue of overstaffing disappear.  Economic history is filled with examples of state governments (or smaller jurisdictions) which have gained power or kept themselves in power through the simple expedient of giving large numbers of voters a job.

Capetan Mihali

Quote from: Sheilbh on November 19, 2013, 07:03:36 PM
I don't necessarily think public employment was too high. Remember the example of the EU providing assistance to Greek tax offices. Many offices didn't even have computers. I think the Greek public sector is probably still unreformed in an extreme way and a lot of spending there wasn't on employees or public services but corruption and clientilism.

Unlikely as it seems, I was in a Greek tax office in 2005, iirc, waiting with my native Athenian friend/host as he tried to conduct some business in the afternoon.  It was all typewriters and cigarette smoke, and the whole building seemed to be using one Xerox machine, if any.  There were lots of agitated Greek-Americans trying to file on whatever land they owned in the old country, but my host was able to use his Athenian charm on the beyond-cliche female civil servants to cut the line and get us out of there with the necessary stamps before they closed.
"The internet's completely over. [...] The internet's like MTV. At one time MTV was hip and suddenly it became outdated. Anyway, all these computers and digital gadgets are no good. They just fill your head with numbers and that can't be good for you."
-- Prince, 2010. (R.I.P.)

Sheilbh

Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 19, 2013, 07:19:07 PM
The Economist has several times described the Greek civil service as bloated and overpaid. 

Now apart from The Economist's word on it I don't have a large number of statistics to prove the case that they're (or were) overstaffed.  But just flashing the morality play card doesn't make the issue of overstaffing disappear. 
I have some statistics. Greek public sector employment is 8% of the population or 18% of the labour force, by way of comparison, the US is 7% and 15% respectively. According to the OECD Greece has one of the lowest rates of public sector employment in the developed world.

Which isn't to say it's not bloated, I believe Greece also has one of the most centralised and inefficient (see Mihali's post) governments. As I say I think part of the problem with Greece isn't that they spend too much on their public sector it's that probably too little of that actually goes to the employees or delivering a service as compared to the corruption and clientilism of the two big parties.

Edit: So by way of comparison the Greeks have as many public employees as the US, roughly. But they've also got government spending way above US levels (nearer the EU average than not). Either those employees are super-efficient or there's something not quite right.

QuoteEconomic history is filled with examples of state governments (or smaller jurisdictions) which have gained power or kept themselves in power through the simple expedient of giving large numbers of voters a job.
But larger? I can't think of any examples outside of US municipal/state machine politics.
Let's bomb Russia!

Admiral Yi

Would you mind letting me take a look at your source?

Quote from: Sheilbh on November 19, 2013, 07:29:19 PM
But larger? I can't think of any examples outside of US municipal/state machine politics.

Mexico under the PRI is the first example that comes to mind.

Sheilbh

#39
http://www.oecd.org/gov/pem/OECD%20HRM%20Profile%20-%20Greece.pdf

Can't find the labour force one I saw, but here's one from 2005:
http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/9789264075061-en/05/01/index.html?contentType=&itemId=/content/chapter/9789264061651-13-en&containerItemId=/content/book/9789264075061-en&accessItemIds=/content/book/9789264075061-en&mimeType=text/html

Edit: As I say I don't think the public sector matters a great deal. But I think a lot of the money is corrupt and clientilist - perhaps especially to those state owned enterprises, no doubt making deals with wealthy tax-evading Greeks. It's tough to privatise those though, given the current state of Greece's economy.
Let's bomb Russia!

Admiral Yi

Actually your first link claims that in 2010 Greek general government was 7.9% of labor force, and they got 12.2% of GDP in compensation. 

Zanza

Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 19, 2013, 08:16:38 PM
Actually your first link claims that in 2010 Greek general government was 7.9% of labor force, and they got 12.2% of GDP in compensation.
Greece seems to be rather exceptional in that when you look at the numbers given by the OECD. The general government usually makes up 15.1% and takes 11.3% of GDP in compensation. So the few Greek civil servants are way overpaid compared to their counterparts in other countries.

Admiral Yi

Yup.  And that's 12.2% of *GDP*, not compensation.  So they're getting paid around 2.5 to 3 times the average compensation in Greece.  No wonder they're rioting to keep their jobs.

Next it would helpful to have some comparitors for general government as % of labor force.

Zanza

#43
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 20, 2013, 02:19:24 PM
Yup.  And that's 12.2% of *GDP*, not compensation.  So they're getting paid around 2.5 to 3 times the average compensation in Greece.  No wonder they're rioting to keep their jobs.

Next it would helpful to have some comparitors for general government as % of labor force.
Here are the rest of the reports: http://www.oecd.org/gov/pem/hrpractices.htm

USA: 14.6% of labour force, 11% of GDP as compensation
France: 19.5% of labour force, 13.4% of GDP as compensation
Japan: 6.7% of labour force, 6.2% of GDP as compensation
Germany: 11.5% of labour force, 7.9% of GDP as compensation
United Kingdom: 17.5% of labour force, 11.4% of GDP as compensation

Admiral Yi

So not bloated at all.  In fact horribly understaffed.  And phenomenally overpaid.