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#11

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Josquius - Today at 08:27:27 AM

I don't know what people are talking about with this stuff about local media being in decline.
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#12

Off the Record / Re: The Miscellaneous Sports T...

Last post by Josquius - Today at 02:39:16 AM

I noticed the rugby is often hidden away on ITV4 unless a home nation is playing - maybe even when Ireland is playing it's hidden? Might explain not seeing it so often.

Caught some of Scotland yesterday. It's interesting that you have these make weight teams in the final tournament and they make their inclusion interesting and worthwhile with some kind of bonus points for scoring more system that I don't understand.
It would be interesting to see this tried in football

Also interesting in seeing Romania vainly trying to get just one try and not score 0. They got close enough at points I wonder why they didn't just grab a drop goal or two.

#13

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Josquius - Today at 02:29:55 AM

I artillery. Take with a pinch of salt, from a random telegram analyst,etc...

RUSSIA'S ARTILLERY PROBLEM

In the past three months Russia has lost almost 3,000 artillery pieces. Russians are moaning about the lack of artillery support. It isn't just about ammunition.
The issues now are threefold. Physical complete loss by drone or artillery is one. Lack of ammo is indeed another. It's not so much quantity of ammo not being available, but not being able to have it supplied due to interdiction.
The last is possibly even more significant. They have run out of barrels for their guns.
Barrels have a calculated lifespan based on rounds fired. The speed at which those rounds are fired is also critically important because the heat generated increases wear - especially on rifled barrels which the Russians do have. It was one of the reasons that newer versions of western tanks went to smooth bore, along with the multiple variations in shell types that could be used.
Russian forces and to be fair Ukrainians too, have became highly inclined to fire far to much far to quickly. I've seen with my own eyes a PzH2000 in use and the Germans (don't be surprised they have so many rules!) recommend only firing it six times on one fast burst every 20 minutes to let the barrel cool. That's not what the Ukrainians do! They bang out multiple
6 shell barrages as fast as they can until they can't any more.
The Russians do the same and the result is firstly increasing inaccurate fire as the barrel droops (yes they start to drop - even a fraction of a millimetre magnified over distance turns to meters). If they keep going,  eventually the barrel will burst.
You can't fix a barrel. All you can do is melt it down and recast it as a new one.
Russia is suffering a chronic lack of barrels. They've apparently lost the capability to mass produce them - it's a heavy industry practice and requires a lot of space, metallurgical expertise and precision engineering. They just don't have enough of that capacity to produce them at a major industrial level. Production is said to be as low as 2 per week.
To get around this they have ransacked their reserves and stored stock- some of it over 50 years old. The only requirement is that it's got at least 50% of its life left, approximately.
Well now it seems they've used them up too and there's nothing viable left.
The result is that there is a massive retraction in available artillery pieces. What they have they can't service and that's if it survives Ukrainian drone and counter battery fire.
If there is anything Russia needs more from North Korea, it's new field artillery.
So the fact that the war has gone on so long - three days remember and it was all meant to be over, nobody ever imagined these problems would crop up.
It's also been a problem
for Ukraine in terms of wear but a concerted effort to produce barrels has been underway since
it was identified back last year. The west realised it would be an issue and had no reserves to call on, so new was the only choice. They're not mass produced in quite the numbers you'd call ideal by any one manufacturer, but several working together have managed to sustain supply - just. That may not be so if the Slovakian elections return the pro-Russian party to power this weekend, and Slovakia cuts off aid to Ukraine.
In conclusion it's a problem for both sides. But it's a seriously bad one for Russia because its whole military philosophy is based on the massive use of heavy artillery.

Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!

I think that's it for the counteroffensive. Lines haven't moved really and russia is doing increased air strikes all over the advance which has effectively broken the momentum.

Either there's an unlikely collapse of russian morale, or we'll have to wait for F-16 or front line air defense to have any movement of the lines.

Source on this?
I've heard the opposite. Ukraine is showing signs of breaking through and the Russian air force is staying quiet, afraid of Ukrainian anti air.
Also Russia is fast running out of artillery y barrels.

Time will tell

https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/

IMO this is the best map out there. Look at the number of red dots compared to blue. Pay attention to the air strikes. You can also go back to the beginning of june and see how little terrain has changed. There is certainly no breakthrough in depth. Ukraine has attrited russian artillery, but it's nowhere near enough. No western country is scaling their artillery ammunition or mortar rounds to a scale that Ukraine needs.

This was all very avoidable if the west had been quicker.

I heard a view days ago in the midst of the attack that reporters including the map makers have been told to stay very quiet.
I've noticed the deep state map, usually showing daily updates no matter how small, will lately go a few days without an update and be very vague out of it.

I will say though that good news about this front was supposed to come out yesterday? The day before? And its been quiet.
I suspect things aren't going optimally but still on track.

#14

Off the Record / Re: The Miscellaneous Sports T...

Last post by Admiral Yi - Today at 02:24:46 AM

Yurope is smooshing the US 10.5 to 5.5 in the Ryder Cup

#15

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by grumbler - September 30, 2023, 11:08:22 PM

You can zoom out and make the russian fortification lines appear in the layers options, top right corner.

Ukraine is nowhere near the last line. They've barely passed the 1st, and in very narrow sections only.

They've broken through the first line on a broad front, and the second in places.

#16

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Legbiter - September 30, 2023, 10:13:47 PM

I think the Ukrainians are in a pretty comfy rhythm right now doing what they love. Compare the Black Sea Fleet right now vs. the beginning of this month for instance. But yes every major piece of military aid is always a year behind it feels, like fighter jets for instance and I worry about inadequate supply of basics like ammo and artillery. Watching Ukrainian units crowdfund tourniquets, vehicles and drones on twitter is also infuriating. I worry about insufficient production lines in the West as well.  

#17

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Zoupa - September 30, 2023, 08:57:30 PM

You can zoom out and make the russian fortification lines appear in the layers options, top right corner.

Ukraine is nowhere near the last line. They've barely passed the 1st, and in very narrow sections only.

#18

Off the Record / Re: TV/Movies Megathread

Last post by Jacob - September 30, 2023, 08:55:15 PM

I'd rather watch with subtitles. Where are you watching it?

#19

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by grumbler - September 30, 2023, 07:52:09 PM

https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/

IMO this is the best map out there. Look at the number of red dots compared to blue. Pay attention to the air strikes. You can also go back to the beginning of june and see how little terrain has changed. There is certainly no breakthrough in depth. Ukraine has attrited russian artillery, but it's nowhere near enough. No western country is scaling their artillery ammunition or mortar rounds to a scale that Ukraine needs.

This was all very avoidable if the west had been quicker.

This may be the best map available, but I don't agree with your assumption that it is complete enough that we can "compare dots" and come away with any conclusions.  And. yes, there have been (and were not expected to be) any major change in the battlefield location, since the key terrain is between the first and last lines of Russian fortifications, which won't appear on a map of this scale.  If/when that last line is cracked in enough places to allow a breakthrough, things will change quickly.  Until then, they won't.  Again, as expected.

I agree that it would have been far better had the West been more active in providing arms and ammunition, but that seems not to have been politically feasible.

#20

Off the Record / Re: TV/Movies Megathread

Last post by viper37 - September 30, 2023, 07:05:51 PM

Megantic.

A tv series about the Lac Mégantic rail disaster where a train filled with oil wagons parked in the nearby city of Nantes went loose and derailed in the city centre killing 47 people in the middle of the night.

I'm 3 episodes in.  It's one of the best tv series I've seen made in Quebec, and probably rivals with many American series.

The acting is so good.  I'm used to see boring soaps, but this is extraordinary.   When given good material, our actors can act. 

Some of the special effects about the fire and the train explosion are top notch.  Obviously, not a ton of it, given the limited budget (it's still Quebec), but it's great to see.  You can feel the horror, the despair.

The panic from the train driver, trying to help the firefighters as best as he could, the aforementionned firefighters, mostly volunteers from the small towns surrounding Megantic, totally overwhelmed from the intensity of the blaze, the local construction company trying to organize some kind of civilian defense with construction equipments to save what they could of the city...  I'm stunned.

This being a product of Quebecor, I doubt it'll ever be dubbed for English Canada, but one can only hope.