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#51
Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023
Last post by Razgovory - June 12, 2024, 08:32:37 PM
So what's the answer Josq?  What is the answer to fighting an enemy that fights among civilians so that those civilians will suffer casualties.  What is the answer to fighting civilians themselves will fight you and commit war crimes?
#52
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...
Last post by grumbler - June 12, 2024, 08:30:15 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on June 12, 2024, 08:18:44 PMI think perhaps the only realistic chance of Russia risking a low-yield nuclear weapon would be if it were facing the imminent loss of Crimea.  And even that is iffy (where would you drop it except the peninsula itself?). 

That was one of the Puck Nielson observations that I found most salient:  that a Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons is useless unless they have the operational reserves to exploit such use.  Russian has never had such a reserve in the entire history of their invasion, so the chances that they can assemble one now seems remote.  Any effort to assemble such a reserve invites defeat in detail before they can exploit it, and in any case signals some desire to engage in tactical nuclear warfare, so the latter would not take the West by surprise.
#53
Gaming HQ / Re: Civilization VII
Last post by Tonitrus - June 12, 2024, 08:20:45 PM
In my preference, I would sometimes limit development/tile improvements if it made the map less pretty.  :P

*But Civ 5 was my last-played Civ, and even then not much...mostly a lot of 4.
#54
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...
Last post by Tonitrus - June 12, 2024, 08:18:44 PM
I think perhaps the only realistic chance of Russia risking a low-yield nuclear weapon would be if it were facing the imminent loss of Crimea.  And even that is iffy (where would you drop it except the peninsula itself?). 

The way they've treated conscripts from the Donetsk regions as cannon-fodder, maybe even the loss of those areas.  But short of a formal/signed end to the conflict (and maybe even with one), that region will alway be a mess of conflict; low-level if not large-scale.
#55
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Tonitrus - June 12, 2024, 08:11:38 PM
I am sure the respondents that think the UK should have stayed out of WW2 are a hoot.
#56
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...
Last post by The Minsky Moment - June 12, 2024, 08:05:01 PM
Quote from: grumbler on June 12, 2024, 05:06:06 PMIf they are calculating their chances to be successful in nuclear weapon use without melting the world, they are going to plan based on NATO capabilities, not their assumptions about NATO intentions.

They are going to be making judgments on the likelihood and risks of escalation in response to a limited battlefield use of a low yield weapon, knowing that the US lacks the quantity and variety of such weapons that Russia has and knowing that there are external constraints on the US ability to use them. The immediate risk is not melting the world, because Russia will likely assume that the response to a single low yield strike will not be an all-out nuclear attack on Russia by the US.  The Russians have the ability to escalate (or refrain from esacalation) incrementally before that point is reached.  The US will also have to take into account that Russian strategic decision-making may not follow strict Weberian bureaucratic processes but may include idiosyncratic personal elements. The Russians (and Putin personally) will also know the US will be factoring that consideration.  It's a complex game theory problem and the mere fact that a capability exists doesn't determine an outcome. But I think you basically agree with that based on your earlier comment in the thread about the likely thinking of the Biden security team.
#57
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...
Last post by Legbiter - June 12, 2024, 07:14:16 PM
Canada will save the day.
#58
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...
Last post by Jacob - June 12, 2024, 07:01:53 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on June 12, 2024, 06:19:36 PMOk no black humor, so long as the NATO alliance can keep the Ukrainians in the fight throughout this summer in matérial and ammo then the industrial might of the West will seriously begin to tell late next year.

... as long as Putinist fellow travelers in the West don't derail the support by then.

If we get Trump in the White House and the AdF become load-bearing for a new coalition in Germany it could still be pretty dicey. I don't know how much damage Putinist fellow travelers can do if they get a majority in the upcoming French parliamentary elections.

But hopefully the scenario plays out as you propose :)
#59
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by HVC - June 12, 2024, 06:57:23 PM
A big chunk of the Kosovo and gulf war are don't know, which probably means don't  know about the actual war rather then don't know how they feel. More of an educational failing (if anything), but there so many wars and only so much time to teach about them.
#60
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Sheilbh - June 12, 2024, 06:51:27 PM
Right - but surely that's how people on the right are thinking? Just with instead of Labour are definitely going to win so I want a few Green MPs to help; Labour are definitely going to win, the Tories have let us done for 14 years so let's get a few Reform MPs.

Separately - I think for all the stuff written about imperial nostalgia (which I'm very sceptical of), there's a bigger, deeper strain of isolationism (also in the US and perhaps in the Fortress Europe version of Europe). I think with a populist and a sophisticated strain (and I think the imperial nostalgia is broadly in the sophisticated side):


Arming Ukraine has overwhelming support but the position of the Gulf War (with a UN mandate) and Kosovo (stopping a genocide) here is unfortunate. Again I can't help but think of Macron's point about post-modernism and the lack of belief in anything including progress.