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Does the GOP need young voters?

Started by Jacob, June 03, 2013, 03:59:17 PM

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Jacob

Internal GOP report on their party and younger voters: http://www.scribd.com/doc/145471237/Grand-Old-Party-for-a-Brand-New-Generation

There are some issues that have to be addressed. Alternately I suppose the GOP could try to work a strategy that does not need the votes of the currently under-30 set.

Phillip V

Republicans scream that Obama will lead to disaster. Thus, if their convictions are true, then they need only wait for the disaster to give them ruling power.

Barrister

Political parties do not need to win every single possible demographic and geographic category.  Obama lost the "white male" vote quite convincingly IIRC, but that didn't matter - he still won.

The GOP is not traditionally the party of the youth vote, and likely is not going to be for some time.  However even if you rely on the 30+ crowd, everyone in that group has friends, family (and most importantly children and grandchildren) who are 18-30.  The GOP does have to be seen as having answers and policies that would appeal to that age group, even if in the end there is no expectation that they will "win" that demographic.

Because I know Canadian politics better... the Conservatives do not need Quebec to win.  Never have, likely never will.  However when they are seen as writing off Quebec it actually turns off voters from other parts of the country.  A government does need to at least try and govern for all of it's citizens (this, by the way, was the problem with Romney and the "47%" comment).
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

Jacob

Reading through the document, the first third or so explains to Republicans how Facebook and Twitter works - so it's possibly of interest to CC and
CdM, but probably not to those of us who are familiar with social media. After that it gets into policy.

Jacob

Quote from: Barrister on June 03, 2013, 04:18:11 PMThe GOP is not traditionally the party of the youth vote, and likely is not going to be for some time. 

As it happens, they address that in the first few pages. Both Nixon and Reagan won the youth vote, and George W. Bush only lost it by 2 points (while losing the 65+ vote by 4 points).

Then there's the bit about voting being habit forming - that once you've voted for a party a few elections in a row, you tend to keep voting for it.

Neil

Under 30s don't vote, and usually get policy matters wrong anyways.
I do not hate you, nor do I love you, but you are made out of atoms which I can use for something else.

Barrister

Quote from: Jacob on June 03, 2013, 04:22:32 PM
Quote from: Barrister on June 03, 2013, 04:18:11 PMThe GOP is not traditionally the party of the youth vote, and likely is not going to be for some time. 

As it happens, they address that in the first few pages. Both Nixon and Reagan won the youth vote, and George W. Bush only lost it by 2 points (while losing the 65+ vote by 4 points).

Then there's the bit about voting being habit forming - that once you've voted for a party a few elections in a row, you tend to keep voting for it.

Nixon and Reagan won in overwhelming landslides.  Even 1988 was a pretty comfortable GOP win.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

Jacob

Quote from: Neil on June 03, 2013, 04:26:05 PM
Under 30s don't vote, and usually get policy matters wrong anyways.

Interestingly enough, the report notes that the youth vote share of the presidential election actually went up from 18% (already high) in 2008 to 19% in 2012, in spite of Obama having lower ratings amongst the demographic.

Not in the report - but something I've seen discussed elsewhere - a bigger question may be whether the youth vote will turn out during mid-term elections. They apparently didn't in 2010; the question is whether the dynamic will play out similarly in 2014.

Jacob

Quote from: Barrister on June 03, 2013, 04:26:31 PMNixon and Reagan won in overwhelming landslides.  Even 1988 was a pretty comfortable GOP win.

Good counterpoint :)

That said... if the GOP's youth strategy is to rely on landslide victories, that seems a bit out of reach right now.

derspiess

Worst thing for the GOP would be for the current GOP leadership to try to develop an active strategy to try to appeal to young voters.  It would come off as fake & would not only fail, but backfire.

Passive, grass roots measures could help.  But the GOP leadership generally sucks at outreach.
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

Barrister

Quote from: derspiess on June 03, 2013, 04:46:57 PM
Worst thing for the GOP would be for the current GOP leadership to try to develop an active strategy to try to appeal to young voters.  It would come off as fake & would not only fail, but backfire.

Passive, grass roots measures could help.  But the GOP leadership generally sucks at outreach.

Not sure about that.  There are ways of doing it that are fake (like Rand Paul at Howard), and ways that seem more genuine.  Developing a well thought out youth policy (probably education-focused) could certainly help.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

Jacob

In the policy section, it seems that Ide's view on student loans is quite prevalent - student loans are a huge concern amongst young voters, including young entrepreneurs. Education was also rated highly as an overall issue.

That may be a way for the GOP to improve their position with younger voters.

crazy canuck

Quote from: Jacob on June 03, 2013, 04:18:58 PM
Reading through the document, the first third or so explains to Republicans how Facebook and Twitter works - so it's possibly of interest to CC and
CdM

No idea why any of that would be of interest to me.

Eddie Teach

Does the GOP need to win future elections? Are they relying on all those youngsters who vote D switching when they turn 30 or 40?
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

Jacob

Quote from: crazy canuck on June 03, 2013, 05:04:34 PM
Quote from: Jacob on June 03, 2013, 04:18:58 PM
Reading through the document, the first third or so explains to Republicans how Facebook and Twitter works - so it's possibly of interest to CC and
CdM

No idea why any of that would be of interest to me.

:lol:

... well, some of those observations could be - and probably are - transferable to the Canadian political realm, and I think you're somewhat invested in that.