2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Valmy]

We'll see. The biggest lulz would come via Clinton getting indicted over that server scandal.

Never happen. They never get the Clintons on anything.

[Legbiter]

We'll see. The biggest lulz would come via Clinton getting indicted over that server scandal.

Never happen. They never get the Clintons on anything.

Oh that's even worse for her if it gets blocked for political reasons. 

[Valmy]

Oh that's even worse for her if it gets blocked for political reasons. 

Nah.

[Admiral Yi]

Oh that's even worse for her if it gets blocked for political reasons. 

If the AG decides not to prosecute, which I expect she will not, people who oppose Clinton are going to say it was a political fix regardless.

[Martinus]

Trump is behind by 10 points in a match-up against Clinton.   Clinton leads Trump in such deep red states such as Mississippi and Utah.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/433966/ted-cruz-stronger-donald-trump-against-hillary-clinton
(It's NRO, but the numbers are solidly sourced)

I don't think Clinton will lose to Trump, but also I don't think that the polls at this moment are really predictive. Both Clinton and Trump have such a negative electorate, that a lot of people may simply stay home - and as Legs points out, Clinton has a lot of skeletons in her closet that may actually blow up in her face. Plus, if there is one constant in this cycle, it's "never underestimate Trump".

[Admiral Yi]

Plus, if there is one constant in this cycle, it's "never underestimate Trump".

Except for the times he loses.

[katmai]

Sweet jebus if anyone truly think drumpf is gonna win.

[Eddie Teach]

Sweet jebus if anyone truly think drumpf is gonna win.

He's won so much that he's sick of winning.

[derspiess]

At least he's not on CP time.

[Barrister]

Plus, if there is one constant in this cycle, it's "never underestimate Trump".

Yes, but that's not the same as "Trump is always winning".

Everybody took Trump to be a joke when he entered the race.  Everyone assumed his support would flame out.  They under-estimated him.  Even after he started winning races people assumed that once the field narrowed he'd start to lose.

But ever since, oh, mid-March nobody is under-estimating Trump.  And since then...  well Trump hasn't been doing so well.  He's had some high profile losses.

I still think Trump is going to win.  The next several races are in more pro-Trump territory, and finally California has shown a real affinity for celebrities-turned-politicians.  BUt it's not because he's being under-estimated.

[Berkut]

Trump is behind by 10 points in a match-up against Clinton.   Clinton leads Trump in such deep red states such as Mississippi and Utah.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/433966/ted-cruz-stronger-donald-trump-against-hillary-clinton
(It's NRO, but the numbers are solidly sourced)

I don't think Clinton will lose to Trump, but also I don't think that the polls at this moment are really predictive. Both Clinton and Trump have such a negative electorate, that a lot of people may simply stay home - and as Legs points out, Clinton has a lot of skeletons in her closet that may actually blow up in her face. Plus, if there is one constant in this cycle, it's "never underestimate Trump".

I think the other thing that people are not considering in these kind of analysis is that the world itself is unpredictable. It is trivial to go back in history and find examples of where things ahead of time looked pretty certain, but unforeseen events create radical change in short periods of time.

If, as expected, it is Trump V. Clinton, the outcome seems pretty obvious. Clinton wins easily.

What if Clinton has a stroke or heart attack? What if she has some kind of scandal? What if there is a 9/11 size attack on the US during the election cycle? What if, what if, what if.

The real world has an annoying habit of screwing up the most careful and reasonable calculations on likely outcomes with unreasonable and unpredictable shit.

[Legbiter]

New poll out, the gap between Clinton and Trump seems to be closing.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-voters-split-between-clinton-trump-hypothetical-november-matchup-n554306

When asked about Trump as the GOP nominee in November instead of Cruz, registered voters are split between Clinton and Trump, though the race is tighter: Thirty-eight percent would vote for Clinton and 36 percent would vote for Trump. Another 16 percent would vote for a third party candidate and 8 percent would abstain from voting.

But it's early in the game.

[Barrister]

New poll out, the gap between Clinton and Trump seems to be closing.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-voters-split-between-clinton-trump-hypothetical-november-matchup-n554306

When asked about Trump as the GOP nominee in November instead of Cruz, registered voters are split between Clinton and Trump, though the race is tighter: Thirty-eight percent would vote for Clinton and 36 percent would vote for Trump. Another 16 percent would vote for a third party candidate and 8 percent would abstain from voting.

But it's early in the game.

Goofy poll - they include "third party" as an option without specifying what that third party, or who its candidate, is.

Realclearpolitics poll-of-poles still has Clinton with a 10 point lead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

[Admiral Yi]

If The Donald has a problem with the RNC, or the delegates, there's one obvious solution: negotiate. 

[Jaron]

Trump still does not fare well against the BERN.