2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Eddie Teach]

See? Donald Trump brought us all together. It's magic.

They're talking about Kasich.

[Martinus]

See? Donald Trump brought us all together. It's magic.

They're talking about Kasich.

I know, but Kasich seems sane and acceptable only because the alternative is so much worse.

[alfred russel]

See? Donald Trump brought us all together. It's magic.

Also aside from the fact he is talking about Kasich, he didn't bring us all together. Berkut was arguing with me characterizing what Kasich said as a strawman argument, and then you agreed with me refuting Berkut.

[DGuller]

What's the deal with Kasich anyway?  Did he have a come to Jesus moment, is he only looking moderate because of bozos he's sharing the stage with, is everyone else going to the hard right so much faster than him that he became a "moderate" by default, is he making a cynical play for the moderate wing, did he stop making a cynical play for the hard right wing?  What is it?

[Barrister]

What's the deal with Kasich anyway?  Did he have a come to Jesus moment, is he only looking moderate because of bozos he's sharing the stage with, is everyone else going to the hard right so much faster than him that he became a "moderate" by default, is he making a cynical play for the moderate wing, did he stop making a cynical play for the hard right wing?  What is it?

His big split was when he accepted Obamacare money in Ohio.  The hard right blasted him for that.  This I think caused him to go forward on a misguided "radical middle" type of campaign that has caused him to lose 34 out of 35 votes so far.

[Legbiter]

See? Donald Trump brought us all together. It's magic.

 

[Eddie Teach]

His big split was when he accepted Obamacare money in Ohio.  The hard right blasted him for that.  This I think caused him to go forward on a misguided "radical middle" type of campaign that has caused him to lose 34 out of 35 votes so far.

That is one of the biggest things that piss me off about the current GOP. So many governors standing up for their principles to fuck the poor rather than accept money that their state's taxpayers are already on the hook for anyway.

[DGuller]

His big split was when he accepted Obamacare money in Ohio.  The hard right blasted him for that.  This I think caused him to go forward on a misguided "radical middle" type of campaign that has caused him to lose 34 out of 35 votes so far.

That is one of the biggest things that piss me off about the current GOP. So many governors standing up for their principles to fuck the poor rather than accept money that their state's taxpayers are already on the hook for anyway.

I think part of the problems is that Republicans reversed the thinking from "the right decisions are sometimes cruel" to "the cruel decisions is always the right one".

[Barrister]

New York Poll: Donald Trump's numbers are in FREEFALL!
By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  April 12th, 2016 at 02:00 PM  |  14

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For Donald Trump, it's not enough to win the New York primary. He's had a very hard time trying to win majorities this cycle, failing where Ted Cruz has succeeded. If he wants any chance of getting a first ballot majority in Cleveland, he has to find majorities in most of New York's Congressional districts.

That doesn't seem likely at all, the way his New York polls are crashing!

We actually got a repeat pollster in New York! Most of the state polling has been really terrible, one shot drive by polling. No regional breakdowns, no trends, sometimes no details at all (such as in this drive-by poll with a small sample size propping up Trump for clicks). It's all just useless clickbait.

Well, Emerson College still hasn't done the meaningful work to break the state down by regions, so that we can figure out where Trump sits with respect to different congressional districts, but they have polled the state a second time, updating their numbers from three weeks ago. That means we have our first actual trend line for the state, and for Trump the trend is terrible.

Donald Trump has dropped 8 points in the Emerson poll, while Ted Cruz is up 10. Trump is still over 50, but at 56, with a sharply downward trend, that's well within the range where regional variations could cost him a bunch of delegates.

If this trend continues, New York could be an even bigger disappointment for him than we thought, and lock him in as having no practical chance of getting to the magic 1,237 delegate total.

http://www.redstate.com/neil_stevens/2016/04/12/new-york-poll-donald-trumps-numbers-freefall/

Ah, RedState.  Trump's numbers are in FREEFALL!  All the way down to 56%!  And Cruz's numbers are going up!  But they don't tell you they're all the way up to 22%!

[alfred russel]

http://www.redstate.com/neil_stevens/2016/04/12/new-york-poll-donald-trumps-numbers-freefall/

Ah, RedState.  Trump's numbers are in FREEFALL!  All the way down to 56%!  And Cruz's numbers are going up!  But they don't tell you they're all the way up to 22%!

I may not understand the rules, but I think the way New York works is that most delegates are awarded on a congressional district basis, with the winner getting 2 and the runner up getting 1, UNLESS the winner has over 50% - then the winner gets all of them.

New York is a diverse state, but, if you assume somewhat even results through the state, the difference between Trump getting 55% and winning by 30% over the closest runner up and getting 45% and winning by 25% over the closest runner up is the difference between getting basically all and just 2/3rds of the delegates. Since Trump is well under the 50% delegate pace at this point he desperately needs to get close to all the delegates - so Trump falling to a massive win with 45% is big news.

Also, what is important to Cruz and Kasich is to:
a) have Trump not break 50% so they get delegates, and
b) finish ahead of the other guy.

So, if Trump gets 45%, it is actually a big deal whether Cruz can get to 28%+, as that may more or less skunk Kasich. Ie, Trump 45%, Cruz 30%, and Kasich 25% - if uniformly distributed (major simplification I know) - means Trump gets 2/3rds of delegates, Cruz 1/3rd, and Kasich nothing.

[Legbiter]

Ah, RedState.  Trump's numbers are in FREEFALL!  All the way down to 56%!  And Cruz's numbers are going up!  But they don't tell you they're all the way up to 22%!

Cruz's winning strategy at this point will be to swing it at the convention via the loophole in lines 4-6 of Section 3.2, Sub-Code VII or somesuch. 

[Barrister]

Ah, RedState.  Trump's numbers are in FREEFALL!  All the way down to 56%!  And Cruz's numbers are going up!  But they don't tell you they're all the way up to 22%!

Cruz's winning strategy at this point will be to swing it at the convention via the loophole in lines 4-6 of Section 3.2, Sub-Code VII or somesuch. 

It's not quite so bizarre as that: Cruz's strategy is to win enough delegates to deny Trump a win on the first ballot, then to try and ensure that people who are sent as 'Trump' delegates will actually vote for Cruz on subsequent ballots.

But I still tend to think that Trump is going to get his majority.  There is now a run of states that look to be very favourable to Trump.  Then, as long as Trump can do fairly well in California, he should have it wrapped up.

And on to a complete meltdown in November.

[Legbiter]

But I still tend to think that Trump is going to get his majority.  There is now a run of states that look to be very favourable to Trump.  Then, as long as Trump can do fairly well in California, he should have it wrapped up.

And on to a complete meltdown in November.

Oh it was hard work but the Dems managed to find the one person who could lose to Donald Trump.  Plus Trump doesn't need to improve his favorability to win the general. He only needs to decrease Clinton's favorability. Does that seem insurmountable?

[Barrister]

But I still tend to think that Trump is going to get his majority.  There is now a run of states that look to be very favourable to Trump.  Then, as long as Trump can do fairly well in California, he should have it wrapped up.

And on to a complete meltdown in November.

Oh it was hard work but the Dems managed to find the one person who could lose to Donald Trump.  Plus Trump doesn't need to improve his favorability to win the general. He only needs to decrease Clinton's favorability. Does that seem insurmountable?

Trump is behind by 10 points in a match-up against Clinton.   Clinton leads Trump in such deep red states such as Mississippi and Utah.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/433966/ted-cruz-stronger-donald-trump-against-hillary-clinton
(It's NRO, but the numbers are solidly sourced)

[Legbiter]

We'll see. The biggest lulz would come via Clinton getting indicted over that server scandal.