2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Martinus]

Well, there is really only two options now anyway:  Trump or Brokered Convention.

I think there is a very good shot Trump won't make the magic 1257, and if that happens, it is very likely he gets dumped in favor of Cruz or Kasich.

If Trump doesn't get the nomination at the convention, my predication is:

- Major media stir in Cleveland...because ratings
- Significant stir inside GOP itself
- GOP goes on to push their candidate, Trump goes back to his business (no third party run, but probably lots of hyperbole/obscenities)
- Lots of Trump voters stay home on election day
- President Hillary Clinton
- First Dude Bill gets caught with Angela Merkel in the Lincoln Bedroom

[Barrister]

Well, there is really only two options now anyway:  Trump or Brokered Convention.

I think there is a very good shot Trump won't make the magic 1257, and if that happens, it is very likely he gets dumped in favor of Cruz or Kasich.

If Trump doesn't get the nomination at the convention, my predication is:

- Major media stir in Cleveland...because ratings
- Significant stir inside GOP itself
- GOP goes on to push their candidate, Trump goes back to his business (no third party run, but probably lots of hyperbole/obscenities)
- Lots of Trump voters stay home on election day
- President Hillary Clinton
- First Dude Bill gets caught with Angela Merkel in the Lincoln Bedroom

Depends where Trump finishes at.  If he's close to 1257 it's hard to imagine he can't pick up a handful of delegates from someone.

[Valmy]

I cannot believe this stupid Primary shit goes on until June 14th. Fucking four and a half months of primaries. Then we get to wait four and a half MORE months to actually elect our President. You foreigners with your six week campaigns have it so good.

[Tonitrus]

Well, there is really only two options now anyway:  Trump or Brokered Convention.

I think there is a very good shot Trump won't make the magic 1257, and if that happens, it is very likely he gets dumped in favor of Cruz or Kasich.

If Trump doesn't get the nomination at the convention, my predication is:

- Major media stir in Cleveland...because ratings
- Significant stir inside GOP itself
- GOP goes on to push their candidate, Trump goes back to his business (no third party run, but probably lots of hyperbole/obscenities)
- Lots of Trump voters stay home on election day
- President Hillary Clinton
- First Dude Bill gets caught with Angela Merkel in the Lincoln Bedroom

Depends where Trump finishes at.  If he's close to 1257 it's hard to imagine he can't pick up a handful of delegates from someone.

I think he will have far more defect after the locked-down first ballot than he will ever hope to pick up.

[Barrister]

Dorsey was questioning me on whether I doubted Trump was going to win the nomination.

Latest poll from New York has Trump with a 36 point lead, 56 to 20 for Cruz and 19 for Kasich.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/trump-clinton-dominate-new-york-primaries-in-new-poll-221397

That would more than offset the looming trainwreck in Wisconsin. But that trainwreck may knock the train off the tracks. Lets see where the poll numbers are in a couple weeks.

Poll numbers haven't moved substantialls in over six months.  Not sure why they'd move now.

Cruz will probably win Wisconsin.  He has won in other states.  It's just he isn't winning enough of them.  And for all the big upcoming states Trump is leading in the polls.   

[FunkMonk]

I cannot believe this stupid Primary shit goes on until June 14th. Fucking four and a half months of primaries. Then we get to wait four and a half MORE months to actually elect our President. You foreigners with your six week campaigns have it so good.

Actually all this crap is pretty awesome and entertaining and I love it. Screw the ROTW. Vote Hillary 2016.

America, God bless America, land that I love

[FunkMonk]

Election season is my favorite season, followed by Summer and Four Seasons.  Jus sayin

[Valmy]

Election season is my favorite season, followed by Summer. Jus sayin

It is like one of those Game of Thrones seasons.

[FunkMonk]

 

[Monoriu]

I cannot believe this stupid Primary shit goes on until June 14th. Fucking four and a half months of primaries. Then we get to wait four and a half MORE months to actually elect our President. You foreigners with your six week campaigns have it so good.

I see that you may prefer the Chinese way

[Eddie Teach]

I cannot believe this stupid Primary shit goes on until June 14th. Fucking four and a half months of primaries. Then we get to wait four and a half MORE months to actually elect our President. You foreigners with your six week campaigns have it so good.

I see that you may prefer the Chinese way

I prefer living through elevator rides.

[Monoriu]

I prefer living through elevator rides.

  I think these elevator and escalator stories have an impact on you.  I will make sure that I post them when the next one happens, and I don't think the wait will be too long.  The problem though is that there is usually no camera footage for the elevators. 

[HisMajestyBOB]

I cannot believe this stupid Primary shit goes on until June 14th. Fucking four and a half months of primaries. Then we get to wait four and a half MORE months to actually elect our President. You foreigners with your six week campaigns have it so good.

Actually all this crap is pretty awesome and entertaining and I love it. Screw the ROTW. Vote Hillary 2016.

America, God bless America, land that I love

It's one of the better things on TV.
Hope they renew it for another season.

[CountDeMoney]

I cannot believe this stupid Primary shit goes on until June 14th. Fucking four and a half months of primaries. Then we get to wait four and a half MORE months to actually elect our President. You foreigners with your six week campaigns have it so good.

Actually all this crap is pretty awesome and entertaining and I love it. Screw the ROTW. Vote Hillary 2016.

America, God bless America, land that I love

I'm as much as a political junkie as the next Languishite, but even I am getting fatigued over this campaign.  And quite frankly, I'm worried about Trump peaking too soon with crazy.  He needs to pace himself, if his support goes south too fast too soon, Cruz could get wind up with the nomination and we could have a really nasty campaign on our hands.

[alfred russel]

Poll numbers haven't moved substantialls in over six months.  Not sure why they'd move now.

Cruz will probably win Wisconsin.  He has won in other states.  It's just he isn't winning enough of them.  And for all the big upcoming states Trump is leading in the polls.

Something worth considering is the extent to which delegates "pledged" to Trump will actually stay so.

Time is reporting that Trump reneging on his pledge to support the nominee could cost him the 50 delegates he won in South Carolina, for instance.

http://time.com/4278295/donald-trump-loyalty-pledge-south-carolina-delegates/