2016 elections - because it's never too early

[MadImmortalMan]

At this point, I'm so tired of underestimating Trump's chances that I'm not willing to predict anything at all regarding his chances against Hillary. I've thought that guy was done a dozen times but he's still here.

[Capetan Mihali]

We're going to build a city of canals and gondolas on Mars, and we're going to make Mexico pay for it.

  POTM.

[dps]

At this point, I'm so tired of underestimating Trump's chances that I'm not willing to predict anything at all regarding his chances against Hillary. I've thought that guy was done a dozen times but he's still here.

Yeah, even back at the end of February, I figured there was no way he'd get the nomination, but now it looks like there's not way he won't get it.  If we've all been that wrong about the primaries, I don't see that we can claim much insight into what happens in the general election.

[celedhring]

I don't see how Trump can get a majority with a more consolidated field and so many winner take all states coming up. But, at the same time, I can't see how the GOP can dump him at the convention and not face the consequences of showing the middle finger to a big part of their constituency.

[CountDeMoney]

At this point, I'm so tired of underestimating Trump's chances that I'm not willing to predict anything at all regarding his chances against Hillary. I've thought that guy was done a dozen times but he's still here.

I dunno, these are the primaries, it's all mouthbreathers.
As a general election candidate, he's toast.  Between alienating voter blocs who have a hard time voting GOP anyway, to the politicos from Megyn Kelly to Bill Kristol he's blasted that help send the message, to the 30% of GOP voters at exit polls yesterday that said they would not vote for him in a general election, he's simply not going to overcome all that.  Why?  Because that would require him to be something he's not, namely not being Donald Trump. 
He's built for winning his base in Mississippi, not winning America--no matter how many states prevent negroes from voting.

[Martinus]

I don't see how Trump can get a majority with a more consolidated field and so many winner take all states coming up. But, at the same time, I can't see how the GOP can dump him at the convention and not face the consequences of showing the middle finger to a big part of their constituency.

Yeah, it's funny how all the proponents of a "brokered convention" fail to acknowledge that "stealing" the nomination for Trump will cause his constituency to rebel (and possible cause Trump to run as an independent). I guess it all boils down to what the GOP establishment wants more - saving face by not nominating Trump - or getting a chance to win elections and save the GOP from falling apart.

[celedhring]

Wouldn't it be too late for Trump to get in the ballot of most states as an independent?

But yeah, I can't see how the GOP establishment can get away with not nominating Trump if he gets a sizable plurality.

[Eddie Teach]

Yeah, it's funny how all the proponents of a "brokered convention" fail to acknowledge that "stealing" the nomination for Trump will cause his constituency to rebel (and possible cause Trump to run as an independent). I guess it all boils down to what the GOP establishment wants more - saving face by not nominating Trump - or getting a chance to win elections and save the GOP from falling apart.

He's still not getting many majorities(and Rubio dropping out isn't gonna change that). There's gonna be lots of pissed off Republican primary voters either way.

[jimmy olsen]

Wouldn't it be too late for Trump to get in the ballot of most states as an independent?

But yeah, I can't see how the GOP establishment can get away with not nominating Trump if he gets a sizable plurality.

I believe the first deadline is in May.

Some states have sore loser laws though.

[Berkut]

I don't see how Trump can get a majority with a more consolidated field and so many winner take all states coming up. But, at the same time, I can't see how the GOP can dump him at the convention and not face the consequences of showing the middle finger to a big part of their constituency.

Yeah, it's funny how all the proponents of a "brokered convention" fail to acknowledge that "stealing" the nomination for Trump will cause his constituency to rebel (and possible cause Trump to run as an independent). I guess it all boils down to what the GOP establishment wants more - saving face by not nominating Trump - or getting a chance to win elections and save the GOP from falling apart.

There are plenty of people in the GOP who think Trump as a Republican President would be worse for the party than Hillary as a Democratic President.

I think a compelling argument can be made that Trump is pretty good evidence that the GOP must break and rebuild itself. It clearly is not well aligned anymore with those who are supposedly its core constituency.,

[derspiess]

I guess I should go ahead and order my red hat.

[alfred russel]

I don't see how Trump can get a majority with a more consolidated field and so many winner take all states coming up. But, at the same time, I can't see how the GOP can dump him at the convention and not face the consequences of showing the middle finger to a big part of their constituency.

Yeah, it's funny how all the proponents of a "brokered convention" fail to acknowledge that "stealing" the nomination for Trump will cause his constituency to rebel (and possible cause Trump to run as an independent). I guess it all boils down to what the GOP establishment wants more - saving face by not nominating Trump - or getting a chance to win elections and save the GOP from falling apart.

Exit polls showed that among non Trump voting republican primary voters, in a trump v hillary matchup 37% would want to go third party. Presumably an additional portion will be voting for Hillary. The party will somewhat fracture either way.

However, Trump can't really run third party anymore. Several states have "sore loser" laws that you can't get on the general election ballot if you were on the primary ballot, and most if not all states have filing deadlines for third party runs before the convention.

Also, for all the theoretical controversy, in the second republican a candidate came in with a strong plurality on the first ballot (37%) and the nearest competitor was at 22%. On the second ballot, the guy with the plurality increased his vote from 37% to 40%. In the end, the nomination didn't go to the guy with the plurality (william seward), and instead went to a guy you may have heard of, Abraham Lincoln, who went on to be elected president.

[lustindarkness]

So now I really have to decide if I want to vote for Rick Grimes. I can't see myself in good conscious vote for Drumpf or Shrillary.

[Martinus]

I don't see how Trump can get a majority with a more consolidated field and so many winner take all states coming up. But, at the same time, I can't see how the GOP can dump him at the convention and not face the consequences of showing the middle finger to a big part of their constituency.

Yeah, it's funny how all the proponents of a "brokered convention" fail to acknowledge that "stealing" the nomination for Trump will cause his constituency to rebel (and possible cause Trump to run as an independent). I guess it all boils down to what the GOP establishment wants more - saving face by not nominating Trump - or getting a chance to win elections and save the GOP from falling apart.

Exit polls showed that among non Trump voting republican primary voters, in a trump v hillary matchup 37% would want to go third party. Presumably an additional portion will be voting for Hillary. The party will somewhat fracture either way.

However, Trump can't really run third party anymore. Several states have "sore loser" laws that you can't get on the general election ballot if you were on the primary ballot, and most if not all states have filing deadlines for third party runs before the convention.

Also, for all the theoretical controversy, in the second republican a candidate came in with a strong plurality on the first ballot (37%) and the nearest competitor was at 22%. On the second ballot, the guy with the plurality increased his vote from 37% to 40%. In the end, the nomination didn't go to the guy with the plurality (william seward), and instead went to a guy you may have heard of, Abraham Lincoln, who went on to be elected president.

So the moral of this story is that when the establishment ignores the will of the people and instead goes with the less popular candidate, it ends in a civil war? 

[alfred russel]

I think a compelling argument can be made that Trump is pretty good evidence that the GOP must break and rebuild itself. It clearly is not well aligned anymore with those who are supposedly its core constituency.,

The counter argument is this: who is the "establishment"? At the core I'd say elected republican senators, governors, and congressmen.

The most numerous of that group are congressmen. They are mostly in safe districts, and thus mostly chosen by republican primary voters, and elected every two years.

They shouldn't be radically disconnected from the base. And I doubt that they are. The problem is likely less that they don't represent their voters, but that the base consists of a bunch of morons who either want to burn everything down or just listen to populists say borderline racist things in entertaining ways.

That is a problem I don't think there is really a solution for.