2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Barrister]

Kasich wins Ohio thanks in part due to him carrying my county. 

YOU'RE WELCOME

You, sir, are a great American.

Has that clip become a meme?  It's from a Canadian ad for Wiser's rye whiskey.

[celedhring]

Yeah, I've seen it posted at the Spanish EOUT forums, even.

[Phillip V]

For some reason, I am feeling a swelling of anger right now that Ohio was not earlier in the calendar and that so much time, money, and "mainstream" support was wasted on failures like Bush, Rubio, Christie, and the rest of the clowns.  Now that Kasich will finally get some deserved attention, it is too late to do anything about Trump.

[celedhring]

He's only managed to win his home state. Granted that's possibly more than any other establishment candidate could've managed, but hardly a show of strength.

I don't think Trump has a chance of attaining a majority before the convention. No idea what will happen there though.

[celedhring]

Trump wins Illinois.

I hate Illinois nazis.

[Phillip V]

Trump wins Illinois.

I hate Illinois nazis.

I guess that Chicago protest only made Trump stronger.

Missouri is last remaining state tonight

[Barrister]

He's only managed to win his home state. Granted that's possibly more than any other establishment candidate could've managed, but hardly a show of strength.

I don't think Trump has a chance of attaining a majority before the convention. No idea what will happen there though.

Even if Trump doesn't secure an absolute majority of delegates, he's going to be so close I don't see how he can be stopped.  By winning such a strong plurality he can surely pick up a few votes here and there.

[alfred russel]

He's only managed to win his home state. Granted that's possibly more than any other establishment candidate could've managed, but hardly a show of strength.

I don't think Trump has a chance of attaining a majority before the convention. No idea what will happen there though.

Even if Trump doesn't secure an absolute majority of delegates, he's going to be so close I don't see how he can be stopped.  By winning such a strong plurality he can surely pick up a few votes here and there.

The alternative is also possible and probably more likely. You can't assume that delegate numbers that are reported are truly "won". I was reading about how in 2012, Ron Paul supporters stormed the actual state conventions picking delegates and got their guys in even though the states were technically won by someone else. In the end the Republicans changed the number of state delegations needed to put a nominee forward at the convention to 8, which was more than the Paul supporters had managed to control/hijack.

Trump doesn't seem to have much organization, he is just flying his jet from rally to rally and calling into TV shows. Cruz and Rubio (RIP) are quite organized. If Trump lands on 1150 delegates, he may be able to convince some people, but in the chaos may lose any more defections from the 1150.

[merithyn]

Trump wins Illinois.

I hate Illinois nazis.

Me, too!

[Valmy]

I blame the Polish immigrant population.

[Phillip V]

Here are the next contests.  I actually think Kasich could win many of them if anyone is still bothering to put up a fight and support him with money and endorsements.


Mar 22
Arizona - Trump or Cruz  (McCain endorsement?)
Utah - Cruz

Apr 5
Wisconsin - Trump, Cruz, or Kasich  (Scott Walker endorsement?)

Apr 19
New York - Trump

Apr 26
Connecticut - Trump or Kasich
Delaware - Kasich
Maryland - Kasich
Pennsylvania - Kasich  (birthplace and childhood home)
Rhode Island - Kasich

May 3
Indiana - Kasich  (Ohio neighbor)

[Admiral Yi]

So best case is Trump without an absolute majority and Kasich with at least 8 states.

[Capetan Mihali]

Trump doesn't seem to have much organization, he is just flying his jet from rally to rally and calling into TV shows. Cruz and Rubio (RIP) are quite organized. If Trump lands on 1150 delegates, he may be able to convince some people, but in the chaos may lose any more defections from the 1150.

I read this as "landing [his jet] on 1150 delegates", and was thinking "Dorsey, that's a pretty large number of people for Trump to take out with one plane landing."

[CountDeMoney]

I bet when the secret squirrels rushed on stage during the incident the other day, it gave Trump a hard-on the length of his jet.

[alfred russel]

PV, that seems phenomenally optimistic for Kasich. His campaign can be summarized as:

Camp out in NH: get second with 16%, claim an epic victory
Wait for Ohio, win by 5 or so

He doesn't seem to have the money or national momentum to go anywhere from here. It is Cruz vs. Trump. Kasich is a distraction. An admittedly enticing one since Cruz and Trump are insane, but unfortunately it seems that so are most GOP voters.