2016 elections - because it's never too early

[alfred russel]

I have not emigrated. Emigrate is defined as leave one's own country in order to settle permanently in another.

How many years have you been living in Korea? Do you have other than vague plans to come back at some point? What do you list as your permanent address?

Also, Tom Brady is not a vegetarian and you have not been vindicated yet. Trump hasn't won the nomination and at this point isn't on a pace of winning delegates to get the nomination without a brokered convention.

[Razgovory]

It's weird that you be watching Trump speak and have the channel change to a show about Mike Tyson solving mysteries with ghost of the Marquess of Queensbury and a talking pigeon and not even notice the difference.

[Eddie Teach]

Brady's also a Vegetarian, does that make me a vegan as well?

If true, that makes Brady = Hitler.

[jimmy olsen]

I have not emigrated. Emigrate is defined as leave one's own country in order to settle permanently in another.

How many years have you been living in Korea? Do you have other than vague plans to come back at some point? What do you list as your permanent address?

Also, Tom Brady is not a vegetarian and you have not been vindicated yet. Trump hasn't won the nomination and at this point isn't on a pace of winning delegates to get the nomination without a brokered convention.

Even if I wanted to, which I do not, you literally can't permanantly settle in Korea unless you marry a Korean. In the unlikely event I married a Korean, I'd move back to the US once the kids got old enough to go to middle school, forcing them to go secondary ed here is tantamount to child abuse.

My permanent address is my RI address.

538 says he's on pace to do so.

[CountDeMoney]

I have not emigrated. Emigrate is defined as leave one's own country in order to settle permanently in another.

Yeah right, K-Tim. 

[jimmy olsen]

It's weird that you be watching Trump speak and have the channel change to a show about Mike Tyson solving mysteries with ghost of the Marquess of Queensbury and a talking pigeon and not even notice the difference.

That's because Mike Tyson has endorsed Trump.

[Lettow77]

 With any luck, the Republican party will go to a brokered convention and deny Trump the nomination.

The South (absent errant Texas, aloof in her pride) will vote as overwhelmingly for Trump as they have so far, while the pair of Cubans wrack up also-rans across the board. The Solid South, seeing the party coronate from amongst its nobility and cast aside any pretense of valuing the electorate's preferences, may at last wake free from the spell the party of the Lincolnites has weaved upon them.

From the lurid spectacle of seeing the fair South embrace this foul yankee, the Southern autonomy party may perhaps be born.

[jimmy olsen]

Vermont called for Trump, win number 7


Christie! 

[Eddie Teach]

With any luck, the Republican party will go to a brokered convention and deny Trump the nomination.

The South (absent errant Texas, aloof in her pride) will vote as overwhelmingly for Trump as they have so far, while the pair of Cubans wrack up also-rans across the board. The Solid South, seeing the party coronate from amongst its nobility and cast aside any pretense of valuing the electorate's preferences, may at last wake free from the spell the party of the Lincolnites has weaved upon them.

From the lurid spectacle of seeing the fair South embrace this foul yankee, the Southern autonomy party may perhaps be born.

You realize Trump is about as Yankee as they come.

[jimmy olsen]

Wow, Cruz really did do a lot better than Rubio!

From 538

David Wasserman 12:06 AM

Back-Of-The-Envelope Delegate Projections: Tonight Sucks For Rubio


Here are my back-of-the-envelope delegate projections: Based on current vote counts and each state and district's allocation rules, Trump is on track to end up with about 262 delegates, Cruz is on track to win about 215, and Rubio is on track to win about 93. That's an even more awful result for Rubio than I thought, and it's a lot worse for Rubio than The New York Times's Upshot model is currently projecting. After tonight, Rubio could be more than 100 delegates behind Cruz and more than 200 delegates behind Trump.

[alfred russel]

In the unlikely event I married a Korean,

There are a lot of ways I could go with this, but Jesus I can't believe you are an English teacher.

Super Tuesday for the Republicans has 632 delegates at stake. The NYT has a live projection of the total delegates to be awarded and have Trump coming in around 250.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/01/upshot/super-tuesday-live-republican-delegate-estimates.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot&action=click&contentCollection=upshot&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0

538 has Trump coming in at 262. Either way, you are wrong. 538 does not have Trump on pace to be over 50% of delegates either tonight or cumulatively.

[jimmy olsen]

In the unlikely event I married a Korean,

There are a lot of ways I could go with this, but Jesus I can't believe you are an English teacher.

Super Tuesday for the Republicans has 632 delegates at stake. The NYT has a live projection of the total delegates to be awarded and have Trump coming in around 250.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/01/upshot/super-tuesday-live-republican-delegate-estimates.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot&action=click&contentCollection=upshot&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0

538 has Trump coming in at 262. Either way, you are wrong. 538 does not have Trump on pace to be over 50% of delegates either tonight or cumulatively.

He was on pace beforehand, and he will remain on pace when the night is done

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/

His target for tonight is a total of 297 and he'll have 345

[alfred russel]

Wow, Cruz really did do a lot better than Rubio!

From 538

You do realize two things right?

#1: That 262 mark leaves Trump short of the 50% mark to get the nomination without a brokered convention. Which you just mentioned as saying the opposite.
#2: How can you deny trump fanboyism when you have not been reporting to us the 5,000 Trump skeptic articles that have been written over the past months, and only now start citing it when it has a slightly rosier projection for Trump than the NYT projection?

[jimmy olsen]

Wow, Cruz really did do a lot better than Rubio!

From 538

You do realize two things right?

#1: That 262 mark leaves Trump short of the 50% mark to get the nomination without a brokered convention. Which you just mentioned as saying the opposite.
#2: How can you deny trump fanboyism when you have not been reporting to us the 5,000 Trump skeptic articles that have been written over the past months, and only now start citing it when it has a slightly rosier projection for Trump than the NYT projection?

I didn't report them because I thought they were wrong.

I deny charges of fanboyism because I despise what the man stands for, will vote against him, and encourage my friends and family to do the same.

[alfred russel]

In the unlikely event I married a Korean,

There are a lot of ways I could go with this, but Jesus I can't believe you are an English teacher.

Super Tuesday for the Republicans has 632 delegates at stake. The NYT has a live projection of the total delegates to be awarded and have Trump coming in around 250.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/01/upshot/super-tuesday-live-republican-delegate-estimates.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot&action=click&contentCollection=upshot&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0

538 has Trump coming in at 262. Either way, you are wrong. 538 does not have Trump on pace to be over 50% of delegates either tonight or cumulatively.

He was on pace beforehand, and he will remain on pace when the night is done

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/

His target for tonight is a total of 297 and he'll have 345

There are 632 delegates tonight. There were 30 in Iowa, 23 in New Hampshire, 50 in South Carolina and 30 in Nevada -- that is 765 delegates awarded after tonight.

He entered tonight with 82 delegates, and based on the rosier projection of 538 will win 262 tonight. So that is 344.

I hate to break out the complex division problem for you, but 344 out of 765 is less than 50%. If he doesn't pick up the pace, he will not get the nomination without a brokered convention. As I said before, there are reasons to think he might pick up the pace, but that doesn't change he has gotten less than 50% of delegates awarded. Which was not the case entering tonight.