2016 elections - because it's never too early

[alfred russel]

Clearly Trump wouldn't have the nomination wrapped up by Super Tuesday - but he'll have a sizeable lead, and will continue to win delegates.  I don't think even if the rest of the field coalesced around one candidate they'd be able to stop Trump at that point.

Now, that being said, the point of no return is more likely March 15, rather than Super Tuesday.  I mis-read one of the articles.  But in any event that point is coming soon.

The crux of it is, that a lot of the contests on March 15 and after are winner take all. So if one candidate starts to emerge, the others will stop getting many delegates. So if Trump is cranking along at 35%, Rubio/Bush/Kasich consolidates to 40%, and Cruz sticks around at 25%, the delegate math may work out to be almost entirely Rubio/Bush/Kasich (assuming things are relatively even nationally). Yes there are still proportional states, and Cruz and Trump would continue to get delegates, but not so many.

FWIW, on March 15 there are two big winner take all states: Florida and Ohio. So yes there is an issue if Trump sweeps the March 15 states: but whoever is emerging from the Bush/Rubio/Kasich trio will have a home field advantage in at least one of those.

I may be wrong, but I don't think Trump needs to just get more delegates of the rivals, he needs a majority. The Republican Party leaders may despise Cruz, but I suspect if given a choice, they would much rather have a hispanic be their nominee than a guy like Trump. Cruz loses you an election. Trump as the face of the party could lose a generation.

[Barrister]

Clearly Trump wouldn't have the nomination wrapped up by Super Tuesday - but he'll have a sizeable lead, and will continue to win delegates.  I don't think even if the rest of the field coalesced around one candidate they'd be able to stop Trump at that point.

Now, that being said, the point of no return is more likely March 15, rather than Super Tuesday.  I mis-read one of the articles.  But in any event that point is coming soon.

The crux of it is, that a lot of the contests on March 15 and after are winner take all. So if one candidate starts to emerge, the others will stop getting many delegates. So if Trump is cranking along at 35%, Rubio/Bush/Kasich consolidates to 40%, and Cruz sticks around at 25%, the delegate math may work out to be almost entirely Rubio/Bush/Kasich (assuming things are relatively even nationally). Yes there are still proportional states, and Cruz and Trump would continue to get delegates, but not so many.

FWIW, on March 15 there are two big winner take all states: Florida and Ohio. So yes there is an issue if Trump sweeps the March 15 states: but whoever is emerging from the Bush/Rubio/Kasich trio will have a home field advantage in at least one of those.

I may be wrong, but I don't think Trump needs to just get more delegates of the rivals, he needs a majority. The Republican Party leaders may despise Cruz, but I suspect if given a choice, they would much rather have a hispanic be their nominee than a guy like Trump. Cruz loses you an election. Trump as the face of the party could lose a generation.

YOu have Trump 35, Cruz 25, and KRB 40.  Those are national numbers, but there's going to be variations from state to state.  KRB may win more states that Trump, but Trump is going to take his fair share.  And he'll already have a delegate lead at that point.

[alfred russel]

YOu have Trump 35, Cruz 25, and KRB 40.  Those are national numbers, but there's going to be variations from state to state.  KRB may win more states that Trump, but Trump is going to take his fair share.  And he'll already have a delegate lead at that point.

Totally agree, and considering that I just totally bullshitted hypothetical national numbers for a month+ in the future with a candidate pool not yet known, forecasting the amount of state to state variation is  pointless. But I think it is plausible - and historically common - for relatively modest national polling leads to result in total domination of winner take all primary delegate counts. He is also likely at a disadvantage in caucuses, for what that is worth.

There seems a very good chance that Trump destroys the Republicans for this election cycle without the nomination. If the delegates going into the convention are Trump 45%, Rubio 30%, Cruz 25%, and Rubio walks out with the nomination, I think that would be hugely controversial and likely result in a Trump 3rd party run.

[Phillip V]

Jim Gilmore suspends campaign

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/jim-gilmore-suspends-campaign-219220

[OttoVonBismarck]

If we end up with say, Trump/Cruz/Rubio/Bush never dropping out, (or swap Kasich for Rubio) and none have a majority and Trump has a "clear plurality" if he isn't the nominee I think the odds of a "crazy Donald Trump spite third party run" are very, very high. I think he'll make that threat openly in the hopes of getting the party to realize they have to surrender to him or face a guaranteed loss in the general. But I think the rational choice might be to call his bluff and give the nomination to Cruz or Rubio. Why? Because the party needs fixing. If Trump is nominated I think it just nukes the party and god knows what happens. If it's an establishment candidate like Bush/Kasich you'll have the crazy wing saying the same thing it did after Romney lost and after McCain lost "until you nominate a real conservative, we'll never take back the White House."

Give them Cruz or Rubio (who is for some reason being put in the establishment lane when he's extremely conservative, only minutely less conservative than Cruz, who is legitimately the most conservative Senator), let Hillary eat their lunch, and maybe, hopefully the teabaggers realize their ideas are too stupid to win elections.

But unlike dorsey I think I lean more to BB's thinking. If Trump wins all the proportional states up until 3/15 he'll have a strong delegate lead--some of those states have " minimums" under which you get no delegates, and they go to the winner, so he'll come away with a nice lead. Everything I've read has said Bush and Rubio won't drop out before Florida (which is winner take all) so those guys are in until after Super Tuesday (Florida is 3/15 like Ohio), and I've heard Kasich won't drop out before Ohio. Kasich staying in could spell trouble because if he finishes weak in South Carolina he'll be running until 3/15 with no money and no campaign organization, but because he's extremely popular in Ohio he could win the winner take all state, at which point you have a "dead" candidate with 60 odd delegates on top of whatever  number he scrapes together between now and then.

But this isn't an election for Governor, and while I've seen no polling data for the Ohio primary, in Florida at least Trump is still leading--in a fractured field. If Kasich/Rubio/Bush are all in til 3/15, then Trump's 35% might actually win him Florida and Ohio in the same day, giving him 150 odd delegates right there, on top of what will likely be a good haul for him up until 3/15.

After 3/15 if Trump wins both states I forecast Kasich drops out and at least one of Bush/Rubio do, too. Maybe Rubio if his money is gone, Bush might stay in til the bitter in as some sort of "vanguard of the establishment" since his money can keep him going at "some level" for a long time.

Now, after 3/15 not all of the states are winner take all, and plus, if it's a 3-way between Trump/Cruz/Bush (or maybe Rubio) then Trump could still end up racking up winner take all wins, a lot of the non-winner take all states after 3/15 are "winner take all with a 50% threshold", so they are only winner take all if you win an absolute majority of votes, otherwise they are proportional--so in any of those Trump will still get delegates in a three way race as no one is likely to hit 50%.

Now, does that mean Trump wins an absolute majority of pledged delegates and wins the nomination outright? To be frank--I think this is possible, I'd say I "feel" it's slightly more likely to happen than not. But I think the "next most likely" option is he finishes with a plurality in a field where no one has enough.

The problem the GOP faces is there is no credible "establishment figure" who can take all the non-Trumps aside and say "Listen, we need a guy, this is the guy, the rest of you need to step down for the good of the party." Cruz is anti-establishment so he doesn't care anyway, and there's no one who can make R/K/B consolidate *now* which is what is needed, consolidating them into 1 after 3/15 I think it's too late.

Without that, there's actually an argument for everyone to stay in as long as they have the money to do so. In most campaign seasons that doesn't happen because it becomes obvious one guy is going to be the nominee, and the guys who refuse to bow out are just weakening the candidate for the general. But I think each broad "lane" (Trump lane, Cruz religious/crazy fundie conservative lane / establishment lane) actually believe the other lanes are actively bad for the party and thus they are not going to "step aside" to let them win (well, I don't know that Trump thinks that, I just think he won't step aside, period.) So that means that a lack of a clear winner is quite possible by the end of campaigning.

I think the outside longshot is Cruz finds a way to win a plurality or a majority, but I find that the least likely of the three possible outcomes.

[OttoVonBismarck]

TLDR if Trump legit has a "hard" 35% support across the board from his weird electorate/fans, the only way he loses is in a 1v1 that starts soon before he's won delegate majorities in a ton of States through 3/15. If his ceiling is no better than say 35%, he would lose a 1v1, but in 5-7 way race that 35% gets him the win in a ton of states, and if that then turns into a 3 way, he'll be "splitting" with the others til the end, and all the primaries he won outright before that time will give him a clear plurality of delegates and possible a majority.

[alfred russel]

Everything I've read has said Bush and Rubio won't drop out before Florida (which is winner take all) so those guys are in until after Super Tuesday (Florida is 3/15 like Ohio), and I've heard Kasich won't drop out before Ohio.

So here is the thing. No one can give any impression of anything otherwise, or they lose support as the walking dead candidate. You are in the race all the way until the day you drop out.

Ohio and Florida are both on 3/15 and winner take all. The polls will show well in advance if B/R/K are in contention to win those states. Rubio is a young Florida politician who will not want the humiliation of coming out of Florida with zero delegates. Kasich coming out of Ohio with zero delegates would really undermine his term as governor. Neither of them will want to be the guys tossing the nomination to Trump, and if they aren't the most viable candidate coming out of Super Tuesday will be under immense party pressure to drop out. Bush is sort of a retired politician, so in some ways he doesn't have much to lose, but he also won't want to tarnish his name with a pointless run for president that can't do anything other than make Trump the nominee.

So basically, by 3/8, I think R/B/K is down to one candidate. Probably named Rubio, assuming he can do well in the next debates.

[Phillip V]

Trump and Cruz will bloody each other.
Bush and Rubio will bloody each other.
Kasich will rise above the fray and outperform in South Carolina.

Look how much money everybody spent uselessly through January compared to Kasich:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016#Campaign_finance

[grumbler]

Jim Gilmore suspends campaign

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/jim-gilmore-suspends-campaign-219220

Good.  Guy was an absolute joke as Virginia's governor, and had no business trying to resurrect his political career.  May he sink into his well-deserved obscurity.  "No more car taxes" was his only real gubernatorial campaign issue, and we still have car taxes.

[Jacob]

Enjoying your analysis OvB and AR. Thanks

[jimmy olsen]

New National Poll, Morning Consult.

Republicans
Trump: 44% (+6%)
Cruz: 17% (No Change)
Carson: 10% (+1%)
Rubio: 10% (-5%)
Jeb!: 8% (+2%)
Kasich: 4% (+2%)
Someone Else: 1% (-5%)
Don't Know/No Opinion: 6% (-2%)


Democrats
Clinton: 46% (-4%)
Sanders: 39% (+2%)
Someone Else: 8% (+3%)
Don't Know/No Opinion: 7% (-1%)

Now, for the Democrats among African-American and Latino voters, Clinton leads 63-26 and 52-44 respectively.

[Razgovory]

If we end up with say, Trump/Cruz/Rubio/Bush never dropping out, (or swap Kasich for Rubio) and none have a majority and Trump has a "clear plurality" if he isn't the nominee I think the odds of a "crazy Donald Trump spite third party run" are very, very high. I think he'll make that threat openly in the hopes of getting the party to realize they have to surrender to him or face a guaranteed loss in the general. But I think the rational choice might be to call his bluff and give the nomination to Cruz or Rubio. Why? Because the party needs fixing. If Trump is nominated I think it just nukes the party and god knows what happens. If it's an establishment candidate like Bush/Kasich you'll have the crazy wing saying the same thing it did after Romney lost and after McCain lost "until you nominate a real conservative, we'll never take back the White House."

Give them Cruz or Rubio (who is for some reason being put in the establishment lane when he's extremely conservative, only minutely less conservative than Cruz, who is legitimately the most conservative Senator), let Hillary eat their lunch, and maybe, hopefully the teabaggers realize their ideas are too stupid to win elections.

Yeah, this pretty much what I think.  I think a very likely scenario is that Trump will win a plurality, the party will panic and throw all they have behind Cruz and Trump will claim he was cheated and then run as a third party.  Even if he doesn't he'll probably continue to attack Cruz.  I think the high-ups in the party have resigned themselves to the fact that Hillary Clinton will be the next US president.  The GOP is broken, it's broken as bad the Democrats were in 1968.  The Reagan coalition has completely collapsed.  It seems to be divided into three parts.  The Religious fundamentalist like represented by Cruz, the nativist, racist and mouthbreather elements represented by Trump, and the traditional (or as everyone call them now "The establishment") elements that being fought over by Bush, Rubio and Kasich.

[Legbiter]

Or Trump runs against Clinton for the Rebublicans and wins the presidency. Serves two terms. 

[Legbiter]

New National Poll, Morning Consult.

Republicans
Trump: 44% (+6%)
Cruz: 17% (No Change)
Carson: 10% (+1%)
Rubio: 10% (-5%)
Jeb!: 8% (+2%)
Kasich: 4% (+2%)
Someone Else: 1% (-5%)
Don't Know/No Opinion: 6% (-2%)

Good to see Kasich getting some momentum. 

[Razgovory]

Or Trump runs against Clinton for the Rebublicans and wins the presidency. Serves two terms. 

That doesn't seem likely.