2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Caliga]

He mentioned that if he wasn't in the top 3 in Iowa he'd drop out. Maybe that's what Cal saw?

Maybe, but I'm certain it was an article that said he'd withdrawn.  I should have cut and pasted it here.

[jimmy olsen]

I'd like to point out at this point that the favorite for the GOP nomination is....Marco Rubio.

Here is a summary of the betting odds:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/republican-candidate

Rubio is the most likely winner, with Cruz and Trump not far behind (Trump generally just above Cruz). Then you have Bush at about 9 to 1, and Christie at about 12 to 1. Everyone else is a super long shot.

He's been quite stagnant in the polls and doesn't have a good ground game in Iowa and New Hampshire from all reports.

[alfred russel]

I'd like to point out at this point that the favorite for the GOP nomination is....Marco Rubio.

Here is a summary of the betting odds:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/republican-candidate

Rubio is the most likely winner, with Cruz and Trump not far behind (Trump generally just above Cruz). Then you have Bush at about 9 to 1, and Christie at about 12 to 1. Everyone else is a super long shot.

He's been quite stagnant in the polls and doesn't have a good ground game in Iowa and New Hampshire from all reports.

Polls in December don't determine the nominee. I believe he has the best favorability vs unfavorability rating in the field, polls better than the other "establishment" candidates, and seems the most likely candidate for traditional voters to coalesce around.

Your boy Nate Silver in particular seems convinced that Trump is not in a good position to get the nomination at this point, and is something of a long shot.

[DGuller]

Your boy Nate Silver in particular seems convinced that Trump is not in a good position to get the nomination at this point, and is something of a long shot.

It's always very dangerous to discount Nate Silver, but he's not a fortune teller.  Statistics, when used competently, can be a powerful tool to extract predictive information from the past, but they're no silver bullet when conditions change drastically from the past.  Trump has defied a lot of historical patterns already.  Maybe it was dumb luck so far and it's bound to run out, maybe he figured out something no one else ever did, or maybe we live in special times with special rules.  I wouldn't just assume it's #1.

[The Brain]

Cal is probably a cyborg from the future.

Cum with me if you want to live.

I feel like Natalie Imbruglia.

[Phillip V]

Christie and Rubio need Cruz to to beat Trump in Iowa in order to make New Hampshire a toss up between Rubio, Christie, Cruz, and Trump.

[Eddie Teach]

I feel like Natalie Imbruglia.

Left of the middle? 

[The Brain]

I feel like Natalie Imbruglia.

Left of the middle? 

Naked on the floor.

[DGuller]

Now Pataki is OUT! What the hell is going on?

[mongers]

Now Pataki is OUT! What the hell is going on?

Who?

I had to google to find out who he was. 

Though in my defence, plently of americans hadn't heard of him or didn't care either:

George Pataki once got to 3 percent!

In the 221 polls that asked about Pataki, he registered 0 percent 149 times. He earned more than 1 percent just 10 times and more than 2 percent only once.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/george-pataki-drops-out-republican-presidential-race/

[DGuller]

Do you remember all the pictures of Giuliani on 9/11?  Pataki is the tall guy in the background of some of them.

[Razgovory]

Anyway, I think it's fair that if Trump wins the the Republican nomination it's Guller's fault.

[DGuller]

Anyway, I think it's fair that if Trump wins the the Republican nomination it's Guller's fault.

What the fuck did I do?

[Razgovory]

Anyway, I think it's fair that if Trump wins the the Republican nomination it's Guller's fault.

What the fuck did I do?

Proximity.

[KRonn]

Now Pataki is OUT! What the hell is going on?

I knew that I felt a slight ripple in the Force....