2016 elections - because it's never too early

[11B4V]

The drudge report has Trump winning at 64%
http://www.drudgereport.com/now.htm

[HisMajestyBOB]

My thoughts:

First, that was a long-ass debate. Too long.
Kasich is just so forgettable and doesn't stand out. He's doomed.
I think Fiorina stood out enough to gain some points. Her positions are really far-right, but they'll play well with today's GOP.
Walker sucked, again.
Rubio still looked good, but not sure how he'll emerge from this.
Rand is a petulant child, despite having a few good points. Still going nowhere.
I expect Carson to start dropping. He'll be well into single-digits within a month and his support will go elsewhere, most likely to Fiorina. Carson just didn't impress.
Jeb is still Dubya Mk. II.
No one else matters or is worth commenting on.

[Valmy]

Man I thought it could never be worse than 2004 but never in my wildest nightmares...

We are going to have Eugene McCarthy Mk 2 vs Trump aren't we?

[Phillip V]

Fiorina should be the main beneficiary from this debate due to her impassioned performance and successfully standing up to Trump.  Rubio performed best on foreign policy. Trump won the first hour due to usual winning one-liners and crass attention, but became irrelevant in second and third hour once meaty domestic and foreign discussion started.  As the field the winnows down and Trump has to actually speak substantively for several minutes or longer, that may be the point of decline the establishment has been waiting for.

[11B4V]

Trump-anything he lost he'll get back, unfortunately maybe the only one to take on clinton with his bombast.
Carson-WTF was that. Couldn't articulate to save his life
Huckabee-Someone please punch him.
Walker-Who??? This guy looked like hit hit the bar prior.
Paul-Shut up
Rubio-Looks like a poster boy for the establishment
Christy- Quit pretending to be something your not.
Fiorina-Shifty
Kitsch??? WTF his name-I found him the most level headed. But who the duck is he.
Cruz-Teddy the tea party's sun has set.

None were inspiring.

[11B4V]

Fuck forgot Bush MKIII. Well that says it all.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Kitsch??? WTF his name-I found him the most level headed. But who the duck is he.

running mate: Camp

[Valmy]

Several candidates made false or misleading statements about vaccines. Donald Trump told a brief story linking vaccination to autism, but there is no evidence that recommended vaccines cause autism.

Trump: Just the other day, 2 years old, 2 and a half years old, a child, a beautiful child went to have the vaccine, and came back, and a week later got a tremendous fever, got very, very sick, now is autistic.

The fact is, the link between childhood vaccinations and autism has no scientific basis — a point that was made by one of Trump's rivals, Dr. Ben Carson, who said "there have been numerous studies, and they have not demonstrated that there is any correlation between vaccinations and autism."

A link was first suggested by a paper published in 1998 in the journal The Lancet and retracted in 2010. Its author, Andrew Wakefield, had his medical license in the United Kingdom stripped. In fact, an investigation by the British Medical Journal found that Wakefield perpetrated an "elaborate fraud."

Many studies have since examined a potential link between the measles-mumps-rubella vaccine, on which Wakefield's paper focused, and found no such connection. In 2011, the Institute of Medicine released a report summarizing vaccine safety in general, and found sufficient evidence to reject the link between the MMR vaccine and autism.

Trump began his point by saying that "[a]utism has become an epidemic." Though diagnosis of autism spectrum disorders has indeed risen, recent research has pinned the blame for this on changes to diagnostic and reporting criteria, and not to vaccines or any other medical therapy.

We covered related vaccine issues in February, when Sen. Rand Paul claimed that he had heard of "many" children that developed "profound mental disorders" after receiving vaccinations. Paul, a physician by training, again erred on vaccine science during the debate. Paul, Trump and Carson said that vaccines should be spread out more or that parents should have a choice to do so, suggesting it would be safer.
Paul: So I'm all for vaccines. But I'm also for freedom. I'm also a little concerned about how they're bunched up. My kids had all of their vaccines, and even if the science doesn't say bunching them up is a problem, I ought to have the right to spread out my vaccines out a little bit at the very least.

Paul is right that "the science doesn't say" this is an issue. There is no evidence that the vaccine schedule recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention actually raises risk of any complications. Earlier this year, University of California professor of pediatrics and vaccine expert James Cherry told us this idea of spreading out vaccines is "stupid. ... [T]hat will allow these illnesses to occur."
Several studies have addressed this issue. One found that there is no increased risk of autism spectrum disorders with increasing exposure to the compounds in vaccines. Another found that there were no adverse neuropsychological effects in children who were vaccinated according to the CDC schedule, and in fact those who had delayed vaccinations performed worse on some measures. Another, similarly, found that delaying the MMR vaccine increased the risk of seizures.

x infinity

http://www.factcheck.org/2015/09/factchecking-the-cnn-republican-debate/

[Valmy]

I also liked how Fiorina is trying to spin her time at HP as a huge business success. That's a laugh.

[Malthus]

Fiorina should be the main beneficiary from this debate due to her impassioned performance and successfully standing up to Trump.  Rubio performed best on foreign policy. Trump won the first hour due to usual winning one-liners and crass attention, but became irrelevant in second and third hour once meaty domestic and foreign discussion started.  As the field the winnows down and Trump has to actually speak substantively for several minutes or longer, that may be the point of decline the establishment has been waiting for.

My impression is that most of Trump's support comes from the fact that he is seen as a human middle finger extended towards 'the establishment'. The more he acts like a prick, the more his supporters like him. They care nothing for substantive issues, this is an emotional reaction - one that, in effect, mistakes obnoxiousness for honesty (to be fair, those on the left have made something of a habit of mistaking honesty for obnoxiousness, so to that extent, he's a sort of culture-wars mirror-image  ).

[DGuller]

I think people are not getting the full impression just from watching the outrage clips of Trump.  He's quite a captivating speaker, and insults are a small part of it.  I can see him easily fooling unsophisticated rubes.

[Savonarola]

Headline from USA Today:

Sparks fly between GOP candidates during 2nd debate

Maybe they read something into the Fiorina-Trump exchanges that I didn't

The BBC's final verdict on Ted Cruz:

The master debater didn't have much of a chance to flash his skills.

Something about that just doesn't sound right...

[Valmy]

He needs to keep his skills at master debating at home.

[Savonarola]

This article from CNN depressed me:

How Trump's bumptious body language dominates

CNN)For anyone who watched Wednesday night's Republican primary debate with the volume turned down, there was a clear winner, communication experts say: Donald Trump, hands down.

"When it comes to body language, nobody does it better," says David Givens, director of the Center for Nonverbal Studies in Spokane, Washington. "He just neutralizes the opposition."

While Trump's opponents appear to be "wooden," Givens says, Trump is "exceptional" at communicating with his body.

"Nobody has done it this well since John F. Kennedy. Or Mussolini," Givens says, referring to the founder of Fascism, who ruled Italy from 1922 to 1943.

Have we actually reached the point where the average CNN reader doesn't know who Benito Mussolini was?   

Democracy is beautiful in theory; in practice it is a fallacy. You in America will see that some day.

[Valmy]

Democracy is beautiful in theory; in practice it is a fallacy. You in America will see that some day.

Duce that day might have been yesterday