2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Valmy]

Naturally the reason the right looks smart here is that their guy won anyway. I am sure they all called the 2012 election with less brilliance.

What's worse is that now it legitimizes the "OMG the media was trying to RIG the election!!! Trump had it right all along!" from the Marti alt-right cesspools.

If Marty actually thinks that he has not seen any of our elections since 2008. Populism is reigning supreme. The last time I really think everybody went along with what the establishment wanted was 2004. Maybe 2006.

Ever since then we have been sliding into this instability. The Republicans have won...yes...but it is different this time. They have none of the discipline they had in the past. The old carrots and sticks are gone. This is going to be messy, as Spicey said earlier.

But I think he was actually saying the isolation in the big leftwing cities has them cut off from most people.

[Admiral Yi]

I didn't say the media were trying to rig the elections. I think it's a combination of echo chamber and wishful thinking.

Plus an understanding of the power of the anti-Hillary myths.

[Valmy]

I didn't say the media were trying to rig the elections. I think it's a combination of echo chamber and wishful thinking.

Yes. But, again, I think you would have come to the opposite conclusion in 2012. Did all those right wing media groups predict the Trump nomination?

[Martinus]

to be frank: but talk of 'safe spaces' should antagonise everyone that wants to preserve free speech.

We don't often agree CI but...yeah.

I would recommend, of all the stupid shows I mentioned, you check out Dave Rubin's "Rubin Report". He is a gay guy and an ex-Young Turks journalist who quit their show over what he perceives (imo, rightly) as their hack job against Sam Harris following his appearance on Bill Maher. He tries to be very balanced (he is no Milo, although he had him on the show two or three times, and they sound like they want to fuck each other badly ) and invites many different and diverse people from extreme left to alt right and in between. He describes himself as "true liberal" but neither is he a crazy libertarian type.

[Maximus]

So this is a true story.

I am playing a game of Triumph of Chaos, a card driven wargame based on the Russian Civil War.

The game is early, and nobody has any advantage yet.

I make a particular move. And the conversation goes like this:

Opponent: You should not do that.
Me: Why not?
Opponent: If you do that, I can do this. Which will then let me attack you. And if I win that attack, I almost certainly win the game.
Me: Yes, but I know that, and I also know that if you make that attack and fail, you will almost certainly lose the game.
Opponent: But why risk the game?
Me: It is not a risk at all, since I don't think you will make the attack, since you only have a 1/3 chance of winning. So you won't make the attack anyway, which makes my initial move safe. Why would you take a 1/3 shot at winning, when the penalty is losing in a game that presumably is still 50-50?

I make the moves, he makes the attack, and gets his 1/3rd result. Game over.

"See, I told you you should not have done that!"

I had a very similar interaction with you in a languish TNW game.

[Berkut]

So this is a true story.

I am playing a game of Triumph of Chaos, a card driven wargame based on the Russian Civil War.

The game is early, and nobody has any advantage yet.

I make a particular move. And the conversation goes like this:

Opponent: You should not do that.
Me: Why not?
Opponent: If you do that, I can do this. Which will then let me attack you. And if I win that attack, I almost certainly win the game.
Me: Yes, but I know that, and I also know that if you make that attack and fail, you will almost certainly lose the game.
Opponent: But why risk the game?
Me: It is not a risk at all, since I don't think you will make the attack, since you only have a 1/3 chance of winning. So you won't make the attack anyway, which makes my initial move safe. Why would you take a 1/3 shot at winning, when the penalty is losing in a game that presumably is still 50-50?

I make the moves, he makes the attack, and gets his 1/3rd result. Game over.

"See, I told you you should not have done that!"

I had a very similar interaction with you in a languish TNW game.

I rather doubt that - although the odds are very different in a multi-player game. A 50-50 shot to win a 5 player game is often a good bet...

[DGuller]

So where did the Democratic Party go wrong, and more importantly, where do they go from here?
It's beyond Hillary: the Dems simply can't win at any level.

The Urban/Suburban divide is real. The left spends too much time on Bullshit talking points (Safe spaces, gender issues, etc) and almost no time on effects of free trade agreements, wages gaps and healthcare reform. Too much social progress not enough Economic progress.

That I'm going to agree with.  The left does not seem to realize that every ultraliberal talking point has a political cost, and every mention of "safe spaces" antagonizes a bigoted fossil that much more.  There is a limited political budget for doing things, and all that safe space bullshit squandered it.

to be frank: but talk of 'safe spaces' should antagonise everyone that wants to preserve free speech.

Well, that too.  The left has their flaws, and occasionally completely indefensible positions.  Not often enough that it should matter when up against modern right, but yeah.

[Martinus]

Ann Coulter is a witch!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfqVih7IFlI

[derspiess]

Ann Coulter is a witch!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfqVih7IFlI

  Though honestly I'd have laughed as well.

[derspiess]

Markets seem to have rebounded nicely

[Caliga]

Markets seem to have rebounded nicely

Yeah, this was a prediction that I'm really happy was wrong.... at least for now.

[Martinus]

Just watched full Obama's and Trump's speeches. Both pretty good. Felt pretty bad for Trump's young son - poor kid nearly falling all over and trying to stay awake.

[Martinus]

Ann Coulter is a witch!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfqVih7IFlI

  Though honestly I'd have laughed as well.

Am I a bad person for liking her?

[Hamilcar]

Ann Coulter is a witch!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfqVih7IFlI

  Though honestly I'd have laughed as well.

Am I a bad person for liking her?

She's so over the top ridiculous that she's actually quite entertaining in homeopathic doses.

[derspiess]

Ann Coulter is a witch!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfqVih7IFlI

  Though honestly I'd have laughed as well.

Am I a bad person for liking her?

I've met her