2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Valmy]

Oh, I forgot:

CountDeMoney said Trump would carry Pennsylvania.  I said that would never happen.

CDM was right and I was wrong. 

Yep. CdM was right. Though once the FBI thing came out I figured it was trouble. Which was a pity because I had just started thinking maybe everything was going to be ok.

[Valmy]

I don't know Marty. I don't watch any of that shit except for Oliver when he has some interesting topic on Youtube.

[Martinus]

Ok, guys, I wanted to post something and I will post it only once, as I don't want to rub it in. For the last 5 or 6 months, I have been listening to shows by Bill O'Reilly, Milo Yiannopoulous, as well as David Rubin, Bill Maher, Rachel Maddow, the Young Turks, and John Oliver - you could say the whole spectrum.

The sentiment on the right wing shows - especially Bill O'Reilly (as Milo is a blow hard and a troll) and David Rubin which is a "disaffected liberal" show who invites very different people from right and left, was that (i) Trump stands a chance to win but it's going to be hard, (ii) he has a good chance to get a substantial minority of ethnic minority, especially Latino, voters, and (iii) he may end up carrying Pennsylvania etc.

The sentiment on the left wing shows was that, largely (until very recently), Hillary has this in the bag, there is no way any minority voters will vote for Trump, it just won't happen.

Why the hell did the left get it so wrong while pretty much every prediction of the right came to pass? Is this because the left is confined to the bubbles of LA, NY and Chicago, while the right actually goes out into the country?

It's because the polls got it wrong, you fucking idiot. Leftists and Democrats believe in science while GOPhers believe in feelings and the tooth fairy.

Fox News had her up 5%. Breitbart had her up 4%. The polls were wrong, white losers didn't want to admit they were going to vote for Trump, Clinton and everybody else believed it and Trump won. End of story.

Can you go suck some toes now?

You were wrong, you fucking idiot. I was right. I don't know what you do - go whine about a computer game, perhaps?

[Martinus]

I don't know Marty. I don't watch any of that shit except for Oliver when he has some interesting topic on Youtube.

I think once you watch all of it you begin to get a decent picture of what's going on.

[Martinus]

Someone posted something on facebook about how historically, each party had their ugly little populist segment they counted on.

The Dems had their blue collar union people, and the Reps their blue collar religious guys.

The left thinks that an appeal to populism is no longer necessary, and has largely abandoned any effort to cater to their populists.

The right....has not done that.

So we have the American Brexit. The Trexit.

It kind of rang true to me....

Isn't this pretty much what I said in my post from an hour ago or so?

[Valmy]

I don't know Marty. I don't watch any of that shit except for Oliver when he has some interesting topic on Youtube.

I think once you watch all of it you begin to get a decent picture of what's going on.

I got stuff to do

Next time you think you watch a bunch of stuff and think you have something to say try to do it without being a raging trollish asshole. Maybe I might have learned something.

[Valmy]

Isn't this pretty much what I said in my post from an hour ago or so?

Yes. The Democrats here sold out to big business at some point in the 90s because they were just getting DESTROYED being protectionist and pro-labor. Eventually it caught up with them.

Not sure what the dynamics were among the rest of them. The leftist parties that is.

[Martinus]

I don't know Marty. I don't watch any of that shit except for Oliver when he has some interesting topic on Youtube.

I think once you watch all of it you begin to get a decent picture of what's going on.

I got stuff to do

Next time you think you watch a bunch of stuff and think you have something to say try to do it without being a raging trollish asshole. Maybe I might have learned something.

The problem is, on this forum, no matter how nicely you say something, if this is what the herd disagrees with, someone is going to flame you - like Zoupa just did with me. So I thought, fuck it, I may as well have fun doing this.

[viper37]

Allan Lichtman predicted Trump's victory.  I wanted to believe he was wrong.
Link

[Valmy]

The problem is, on this forum, no matter how nicely you say something, if this is what the herd disagrees with, someone is going to flame you - like Zoupa just did with me. So I thought, fuck it, I may as well have fun doing this.

Lame. Zoupa did not even address what your post was about anyway.

[Martinus]

Allan Lichtman predicted Trump's victory.  I wanted to believe he was wrong.
Link

So did Ann Coulter and the guy who created Dilbert.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

So where did the Democratic Party go wrong, and more importantly, where do they go from here?
It's beyond Hillary: the Dems simply can't win at any level.

The Urban/Suburban divide is real. The left spends too much time on Bullshit talking points (Safe spaces, gender issues, etc) and almost no time on effects of free trade agreements, wages gaps and healthcare reform. Too much social progress not enough Economic progress.

That I'm going to agree with.  The left does not seem to realize that every ultraliberal talking point has a political cost, and every mention of "safe spaces" antagonizes a bigoted fossil that much more.  There is a limited political budget for doing things, and all that safe space bullshit squandered it.

to be frank: but talk of 'safe spaces' should antagonise everyone that wants to preserve free speech.

[Valmy]

to be frank: but talk of 'safe spaces' should antagonise everyone that wants to preserve free speech.

We don't often agree CI but...yeah.

[Zoupa]

The problem is, on this forum, no matter how nicely you say something, if this is what the herd disagrees with, someone is going to flame you - like Zoupa just did with me. So I thought, fuck it, I may as well have fun doing this.

Lame. Zoupa did not even address what your post was about anyway.

I did. Republican politicians and news outlets had the exact same prediction as "mainstream" media: a close Clinton EV victory with a 3-4% margin in total votes. Everybody had the same poll data.

What's worse is that now it legitimizes the "OMG the media was trying to RIG the election!!! Trump had it right all along!" from the Marti alt-right cesspools. The "media" didn't try to rig anything. The polling was off. That's just a fact, facts don't care about opinions and feelings.

[Martinus]

I didn't say the media were trying to rig the elections. I think it's a combination of echo chamber and wishful thinking.