2016 elections - because it's never too early

Started by merithyn, May 09, 2013, 07:37:45 AM

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derspiess

Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 24, 2016, 01:10:14 PM
4 years, derspiess.  At least 4 years.  :lol: :P

Must speed up work on my Argentine estancia.
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

garbon

"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."
I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

CountDeMoney

Quote from: derspiess on October 24, 2016, 01:31:29 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 24, 2016, 01:10:14 PM
4 years, derspiess.  At least 4 years.  :lol: :P

Must speed up work on my Argentine estancia.

Adios and don't let la entrada hit your ass on the way out. :)

lustindarkness

Grand Duke of Lurkdom

CountDeMoney


OttoVonBismarck

Quote from: Fate on October 23, 2016, 09:39:04 PMWill that be anywhere near enough, though? I don't think the GOP will reform. They seem quite content to be the obstructionist party.

Even Trump's Republican party will win a House majority given how heavily our districts are gerrymandered. The Democrats could win the presidency by 8 points but still lose the House because Democratic voters are concentrated (or wasted) in urban districts with lopsided voting results.

While Democrats are going to win the Senate this time around, the 2018 cycle is going to heavily favor Republicans. 3 Dem seats are very likely going Republican (WV, MT, OH) and another 7 Dem seats (FL, MO, ND, PA, WI, IN, VA) are vulnerable which will probably be enough to give the GOP control of the Senate yet again.

We're going to have 2 years of Hillary getting her 2 to 3 Supreme Court nominees through the Senate and little else. Which will be followed by 2 years of absolute gridlock, government shutdowns, debt ceiling fights, and last minute continuing resolution budgets by a hostile Congress.

Eh, I agree the map in 2018 makes Republican recapture of the Senate likely, but I find some of your state by states questionable. The 3 states you list as "very likely" of going Republican I have big doubts about two of them.  For one, Sherrod Brown is very popular in Ohio, which has never been a real moderate state but more a state with a lot of union/traditional lefty liberals and a lot of midwestern conservatives. The GOP was sure they could knock Brown out in 2012 and failed pretty spectacularly, I have little doubt he wins reelection in '18 for the same reasons he won in '12. As for WV, that's Joe Manchin who is running, a man whose support for coal is unimpeachable (he mentions it anytime he opens his mouth, and made his millions on coal), and who is basically a WV institution. He was elected Governor twice with hardly a challenge and steamrolled his way to winning a special election to fill the rest of Byrd's term as Senator and again steamrolled the opposition in winning a full six year term. If Jay Rockefeller had stayed in the Senate, with his upper-crust elitism, disconnection from traditional red state values and etc I could've seen him losing, but he retired and his seat went Republican already, but Manchin isn't nearly as vulnerable as Rockefeller was because he's seen as a good ole boy.

Coal Democrats still win in WV--a billionaire coal owner (D) is up by double digits in the WV gubernatorial race this year.

Zanza

Quote from: derspiess on October 24, 2016, 01:31:29 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 24, 2016, 01:10:14 PM
4 years, derspiess.  At least 4 years.  :lol: :P

Must speed up work on my Argentine estancia.
What if they re-elect the Peronists next time? They are far more left-wing than your Democrats.

derspiess

Quote from: Zanza on October 24, 2016, 02:09:10 PM
What if they re-elect the Peronists next time? They are far more left-wing than your Democrats.

The FpV ones are, for sure. The Federal Peronists can be reasoned with, however.  And trading Hillary for Macri??  YES PLEAZZ
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

derspiess

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 24, 2016, 02:01:25 PM
Coal Democrats still win in WV--a billionaire coal owner (D) is up by double digits in the WV gubernatorial race this year.

What a shithead.  As for Manchin, I wouldn't call him vulnerable but he is not quite as well-liked as he used to be.  And FWIW he'd take any appointment Hillary throws his way.
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

Ed Anger

Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive

CountDeMoney

Watched Gary Johnson for a bit.  Man, what a flake.  That's what happens when Republicans drink way too much bong water.

mongers

Would be nice to see an embedded counter showing the days and hours ticking down to the end of this circus (Trump); what is it now, 15 days till the results?
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

Baron von Schtinkenbutt

Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 24, 2016, 04:45:45 PM
Watched Gary Johnson for a bit.  Man, what a flake.  That's what happens when Republicans drink way too much bong water.

Every time I see Johnson I wish it was Weld at the top of the ticket. :(

garbon

Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on October 24, 2016, 04:55:03 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 24, 2016, 04:45:45 PM
Watched Gary Johnson for a bit.  Man, what a flake.  That's what happens when Republicans drink way too much bong water.

Every time I see Johnson I wish it was Weld at the top of the ticket. :(

Is that because Weld has actually done something great or is it just because he isn't lame/crazy like Johnson?
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."
I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

Admiral Yi

He used to be governor of Massachussetts, then I think he might have been ambassador to the Vatican.