2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Admiral Yi]

His message has been deficit reduction since mid-2009

Not it wasn't.  For one brief shining moment he appointed a COMMISSION!  Whoo!  How's that for action!  Then the commission published its report and he put it on the shelf.

- and the deficit was falling before the GOP won the House.

Of course it was falling.  The year after an 800 billion dollar stimulus bill, and a deficit of 16% of GDP (which even the Greeks, for all their efforts, never managed) it's going to fall.

[Sheilbh]

In the second half of 2009 there was a big push for another $800 billion stimulus. Obama decided against it and to focus on the deficit. (Edit: In my view this was the wrong decision.)

Not it wasn't.  For one brief shining moment he appointed a COMMISSION!  Whoo!  How's that for action!  Then the commission published its report and he put it on the shelf.

Whereas John Boehner, like a varnished Jimmy Stewart, single-handedly changed DC?

From mid-2009 the argument between right and left was about how to reduce the deficit and how quickly. That was the only difference between the two parties.

[Admiral Yi]

If by that you mean the right said cut spending and cut it now, and the left said no or maybe later, then I might agree with you.  Still don't see how that sustains the argument that Obama did things to cut the deficit.

Joan was on much firmer ground IMO when he argued that Obama was in favor of continued deficit spending and it was the right thing to do.  That, at least, is an issue of preference and not one of fact.

[Admiral Yi]

On further reflection, it's fair to give Obama credit for slashing the military's budget.

[CountDeMoney]

J. D. Mittensfeller outlines how the GOP would eradicate *snicker* poverty.

Romney, moving toward 2016 run, outlines vision to eradicate poverty

SAN DIEGO — Mitt Romney laid down a marker for a prospective presidential campaign in 2016, telling a Republican audience here Friday night that the party can win the White House with a conservative message that stresses security and safety for the American people, opportunity for all regardless of background and a plan to lift people out of poverty.

In his first public appearance since his surprise announcement that he will seriously consider a third campaign for the White House, Romney offered an economic message that represented a dramatic departure from the themes he sounded in losing the 2012 campaign to President Obama.

"Under President Obama, the rich have gotten richer, income inequality has gotten worse and there are more people in poverty than ever before," Romney said. "Under this president, his policies have not worked. Their liberal policies are good every four years for a campaign, but they don't get the job done."

In his last campaign, Romney was hampered by an image, pushed by the Democrats, that he was a wealthy business executive who was out of touch with ordinary Americans. On Friday, he seemed determined to send a signal that he would try to deal with that problem from the start, should he run.

"It's a tragedy -- a human tragedy – that the middle class in this country by and large doesn't believe the future won't be better than the past or their kids will have a brighter future of their own," Romney said. He added, "People want to see rising wages and they deserve them."

As with others in his party, he raised the issue of social mobility and the difficulty of those at the bottom from rising into the middle class. He cited former president Lyndon B. Johnson's War on Poverty half a century ago. Johnson's intentions were good, he said, but his policies had not worked. He argued that Republicans must persuade voters that conservative policies can "end the scourge of poverty" in America.

Beyond a focus aimed more at struggling middle-class families and those in poverty, Romney's brief remarks Friday included comments about the work he had done as a lay pastor in the Mormon Church, a topic he rarely spoke about in his past campaigns. He invoked his wife Ann, who stood on the stage with him.

"She knows my heart in a way that few people do," he said. "She's seen me not just as a business guy and a political guy, but for over 10 years as you know I served as a pastor for a congregation and for groups of congregations... She's seen me work with folks that are looking for better work and jobs and providing care for the sick and the elderly. She knows where my heart is."

Romney joked also that the question he's been asked most frequently in recent days is what Ann thinks about another campaign. "She believes that people get better with experience," he joked. "Heaven knows I have experience running for president."

The one element of Romney's substantive remarks that did not mark a departure from his last campaign was criticism of Obama on foreign policy. Citing threats across the globe to U.S. security, Romney said, "The results of the Hillary Clinton-Barack Obama foreign policy have been devastating, and you know that. Terrorism is not on the run."

Romney's appearance came aboard the USS Midway, an aircraft carrier museum docked in downtown San Diego, where the Republican National Committee held a reception to conclude its winter meeting here. His appearance drew a throng of reporters, with about two dozen cameras awaiting him and his wife when they arrived shortly before 7 p.m. PT.

Before taking the stage, Romney mingled with RNC members and reminisced about happy times on the campaign trail in 2012. When he saw some friends from Puerto Rico, he recalled the thunderous rally he attended in San Juan during the territory's primary campaign.

"I don't think anybody thought we'd be getting any delegates in Puerto Rico, but we got 'em all, thanks to you," Romney said.

Ann chimed in, "That was the most extraordinary night."

Ann told a few reporters she was excited to be back on the campaign trail, but said this was a "time to think." Asked whether her husband would run again, she said, "We don't know yet."

As the Romneys walked to their SUV to leave the aircraft carrier, a few fans asked Mitt to autograph a few baseballs.

"Look at this," he said with a smile and a chuckle. "Isn't that nice to get the chance to sign a baseball again?"

He signed a few, but then told them, "One more. I don't want to flood the market with these -- might drop the price below 50 cents again."

His last words as he got into the waiting SUV were: "I'm thinking – thinking about it. Giving it consideration."

Romney's remarks came at the end of a tumultuous week in the Republican presidential race — and a roller-coaster ride for the 2012 nominee. His declaration that he will seriously consider running again generated both surprise and excitement within GOP circles. The announcement foreshadowed a potentially dramatic clash between the former Massachusetts governor and former Florida governor Jeb Bush.

Romney and his inner circle worked the phones in an effort to gauge interest and potential support for a third campaign, and to begin to reassemble the team that carried him to the nomination and into the general election.

But within days, another reality set in, which was resistance to his possible candidacy. A few one-time Romney supporters expressed public skepticism while others privately said they hoped he would not go forward.

There was criticism as well about the way the rollout was handled, which appeared to have been little planned and caught even some close to Romney by surprise. There was criticism as well about the rationale that some of those around Romney were using to justify a new campaign.

Many Republicans, however fond they are of Romney personally, are unforgiving about the campaign he ran, arguing that Obama was highly vulnerable and that a more skilled campaign and candidate would have won.

Romney quickly came under pressure to explain not only the substance behind his belief that he should be the 2016 nominee but also to show that a new campaign would be run differently, with new faces and an expanded operation.

[Martinus]

lolz

[Ed Anger]

Great, 2 more years of Seedy calling me Mittens. 

[Sheilbh]

From Alex Massie:

The ineffable sadness of Mitt Romney 2016
Alex Massie 

The suggestion Mitt Romney might make another run for the Presidency of the United States made me think of a line from one of my father's novels: 'There's nothing so sad as the memory of lost fucks.'  There's a measure of wistful sadness but also some wry resignation.

The obvious reaction is that, hey Mittens, third time ain't no charm. Because that's the way it's supposed to work these days. You're supposed to accept being beaten, supposed to retire gracefully from the fray, supposed to recognise it's someone else's turn. This ain't Richard Nixon's America and it's not Ronald Reagan's either.

And yet, in one sense, why should Romney accept it is someone else's turn? It is not as though the Republican party is over-freighted with stars likely to defeat Hillary Clinton. Who can blame Romney for thinking he's got as good a shot as any of these other schlubs?

He has the advantage of being familiar with course and distance and it's hard to make a credible case that a Romney candidacy is vastly more backward-looking than Jeb Bush's putative tilt for the nomination. Besides, if the Democrats choose Hillary Clinton they're hardly breaking new ground save, of course, in terms of gender.

If 2012′s version of Romney was better than 2008′s (and it was!) then who's to say the 2016 iteration cannot be the best yet? Michael Brendan Dougherty makes a short but useful case arguing it could be. He's almost certainly right that Romney is a better person – a better man – than many of his critics allow. But is that really enough? I doubt it.

Romney's problem has never been his qualifications for the Presidency. No, his difficulty is the people-stuff. The empathy thing. The emotional intelligence bit of the job. He's been a candidate who worked better in theory than in practice.

If you think of Romney as being the creation of some kind of experiment in artificial intelligence everything begins to make sense. He seems to have all it takes to pass a Presidential Turing Test and each time you think the new, improved version of the RomneyBot has a better-than-ever chance of passing. And yet, when push comes to shove, it doesn't quite work. The new, improved, Romney still isn't quite good enough to fool you. Close but no cigar.

Remember, too, that Let Mitt Be Mitt was the 2012 promise too. He wouldn't make the same mistakes he'd made in 2008. And, to be fair, he made new ones instead. But why wouldn't that happen again?]

In 2012, however, Romney was the adult in the room. Once Rick Perry killed himself, Romney was the only feasible, viable, candidate. If the nomination was not his by default he was still the only credible choice. That was a splendid luxury to enjoy. It won't apply this time. Whatever one says about Jeb, about Chris Christie, about John Kasich or about a number of other possible candidates you'd have a hard time making a convincing case that they're immediately disqualified from serious consideration.

Which in turn makes Romney's resume look pretty thin. In 2008 he was beaten by John McCain, a man much of the GOP hates. In 2012 he was the tall man in a room of pygmies. What kind of a track record is that, really?

What does Romney bring to the party he didn't bring last time around? In the end, there's a sad sense of Been there, done that, bought the t-shirt, never wore it again about Romney 2016. Perhaps the best case for Mitt is that no-one else can in either but is that really enough? Or does his putative candidacy actually reveal the inadequacy of the Republican choices this time around the circus? I'd like to think it's not sad; I suspect it might be.

[The Minsky Moment]

Deficit reduction too. Obama's going to go down historically as a very successful President.

What has Obama done to deserve any credit for deficit reduction?

Not panic about it.  Realize the principal cause of ballooning deficits was a weak economy and that the focus needed to be there. 

That said, the downsizing of the federal government in the teeth of the recession has been pretty extraordinary and unprecedented in postwar memory.  Decreased headcount, and decreased primary spending over the cycle; the total $$ impact is partially masked by the huge entitlement piece, but it is significant.   I do think that more sustained infrastructure spending over the cycle would have been preferable, I think the deficit impact would have been minimal, I think it would have saved the US a lot of future pain in terms of deferred maintenance costs, I think Obama supported that idea but not strong enough, I would criticize him for not making it a higher priority but question whether it would have made a difference.

[Caliga]

I wonder if Romney is actually serious, or if he's just trying to get some publicity or a cabinet position in a possible Republican administration.

[Ed Anger]

I wonder if Romney is actually serious, or if he's just trying to get some publicity or a cabinet position in a possible Republican administration.

He wants those binders ful of women.

[Caliga]

  Forgot about that.  You're all right, kid.

[Ed Anger]

My jokes would have more zip if I coul spell "full" properly.

[Ed Anger]

DAMMIT

[KRonn]

I wonder if Romney is actually serious, or if he's just trying to get some publicity or a cabinet position in a possible Republican administration.

I'm hearing now in the news that his polling/popularity is going down a bit, as is Jeb Bush's. I think they, especially Romney, was up in polling was because of name recognition. But I think once we get past that then people rethink things and want fresh blood, new ideas. At least I hope so, and regarding all the candidates of both parties.