2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Admiral Yi]

57% reporting

Trump (won)
   
9
   33.8%
Kasich
   
0
   16.4%
Cruz
   
0
   11.6%
Bush
   
0
   11.3%
Rubio
   
0
   10.6%
Christie
   
0
   7.8%
Fiorina
   
0
   4.4%
Carson
   
0
   2.3%

Interesting results on the GOP side. 

[OttoVonBismarck]

So Nevada is next, a caucus is always a bitch to poll for and the Nevada caucus hasn't been polled nearly as much as the Iowa caucuses were, nor as recently--but Clinton enjoyed monstrous leads there.

Then comes South Carolina's primary where Clinton is up something like 30 points on Sanders.

Then comes Super Tuesday with these states/territories/weird entities:

Alabama
American Samoa
Arkansas
Colorado
"Democrats Abroad"
Georgia
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia

So right away give Bernie Vermont, he wins that in a landslide. Grats, it's 16 delegates, of which Hillary probably gets 4 or something.

I  have no conception of how "Democrats Abroad" vote, they're 13 delegates, same for American Samoa at 6. What I know is the press doesn't care about those entities so it'll have little real impact in perception or delegate counts.

So that leaves the following SEC states where Clinton has no chance of losing to Jewy Bernie: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas. She also probably has no chance of losing Oklahoma or Virginia.

Why Virginia? Because Virginia is 20% black. Oh, but what about Massachusetts? It's near Vermont too! But, it's got a lot of minorities, not as many as Texas, but like 8% of Massachusetts residents speak Spanish in the home, another 8% are black.

Minnesota also has a pretty decent sized minority population. The reality is any of the "big states", big meaning has more than 5 electoral votes so isn't a small New England state or an empty plains state, has a "decent" minority population. A majority of whom are Democrats, so the % of minority voters in the Democratic primary will be higher than their % of the population in those states.

So far outside of Vermont Bernie is only seriously expected to be competitive in Colorado. In 2008 Obama and Clinton both won like 800 delegates on Super Tuesday and won 11/12 states respectively. Not nearly as many states are holding elections on Super Tuesday this year, but a string of conservative states is having a followup election 4 days later and Hillary is likely to win all of those. But the real question is how is Bernie viable if he loses 10+ states on Super Tuesday and only wins Vermont and Colorado?

The answer is--he isn't. How can he avoid that? There's only really one way--by decreasing the Clinton gap on minorities. You cannot win the Democratic presidential nomination by "doubling down" on young white liberals in a "turnout battle" where you think they will come out in droves. Bernie's "grand strategy" is he thinks he'll get all the middle aged / middle class whites on board too, but honestly a lot of them aren't voting in Democratic primaries anymore. The Obama coalition won because it married the young white liberals that support Bernie with blacks and Hispanics, and was competitive with women (Clinton had like a +5% margin with them against Obama.) There is no real mathematical way Bernie's scheme can work as it's laid out--so he has to find a way to appeal to minority voters in a little under a month, if that doesn't happen there's no serious path to the Presidency--and repeating anti-establishment attacks and anti-Wall Street attacks isn't the answer, minorities do not care about those issues. They like Hillary because of her deep connections with the black community. Some of this comes from Bill who had good relationships with blacks, but some of it is also messaging/rhetoric.

Sanders cannot change the topic from Wall Street--a bogeyman only young white college graduates who don't make a lot of money care about, Hillary frequently talks about minority "disempowerment" in her speeches, and Sanders isn't comfortable talking about that, for whatever reason.

[Valmy]

So that leaves the following SEC states where Clinton has no chance of losing to Jewy Bernie: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas.

You better be fucking saying we are all about the Securities and Exchange Commission there pal

[Barrister]

Terrible, terrible GOP results.  Very disappointing for Rubio - not sure he can come back from that.  Christie is definitely done like dinner.

I don't hate Kasich, but unless he can use this result to springboard support I think it's a flash in the pan.

Shaping up as Cruz and Trump.

[Admiral Yi]

Shaping up as Cruz and Trump.

You understand Cruz is running 3rd in NH, right?

I think it's going to end up Trump vs. someone, but I don't see how you can say who based on tonight's results--except that it won't be Christie.

[Razgovory]

I don't disagree with Otto's analaysis.  I think Sanders can do well in Minosota.  His natural constituency is sweater vest NPR listeners, so lake Wobigan would go for him.  Anyplace with a lot of college kids will go for Sanders as well, but beyond that I don't see much.  Certainly not Unions or blacks.

[Valmy]

Wow Rubio. Was that his 'Wraaaaa' Howard Dean moment?

Bush beat him. Well push me over with a feather.

[Barrister]

Shaping up as Cruz and Trump.

You understand Cruz is running 3rd in NH, right?

I think it's going to end up Trump vs. someone, but I don't see how you can say who based on tonight's results--except that it won't be Christie.

Yes.  Kasich is in second.  Based on independents voting for him - something not allowed in many other states.  Whereas Cruz will have a decent base of support going forward.  Cruz is still second in national polls, no?

I could live with Trump v Kasich.

[alfred russel]

Terrible, terrible GOP results.  Very disappointing for Rubio - not sure he can come back from that.  Christie is definitely done like dinner.

I don't hate Kasich, but unless he can use this result to springboard support I think it's a flash in the pan.

Shaping up as Cruz and Trump.

It won't be Cruz and Trump. My guess is that it is Cruz vs. Trump vs. Bush/Kasich/Rubio. The party won't concede the nomination to Cruz and Trump if there is any chance to avoid it, including my guess is if they have to go all the way to the convention.

The Bush / Kasich / Rubio trio will go into South Carolina, but as soon as two start flagging, those two will come under a ton of pressure to drop out so support can be concentrated on the most viable of the three.

[alfred russel]

Wow Rubio. Was that his 'Wraaaaa' Howard Dean moment?

Bush beat him. Well push me over with a feather.

If Rubio doesn't rally, that is way more important than Dean's moment. Dean was giving a speech after finishing third in Iowa--he probably wasn't getting the nomination. At the time of the debate, Rubio was the favorite to get the Republican nomination.

[OttoVonBismarck]

So that leaves the following SEC states where Clinton has no chance of losing to Jewy Bernie: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas.

You better be fucking saying we are all about the Securities and Exchange Commission there pal

Aggie. You know--the Texas program that wins football games.

[alfred russel]

TCU and Baylor?

[Valmy]

Aggie. You know--the Texas program that wins football games.

Sure against teams with losing records and division II programs.

[Valmy]

TCU and Baylor?

Well now Otto said win football games, not championships.

[Valmy]

I don't disagree with Otto's analaysis.  I think Sanders can do well in Minosota.  His natural constituency is sweater vest NPR listeners, so lake Wobigan would go for him.  Anyplace with a lot of college kids will go for Sanders as well, but beyond that I don't see much.  Certainly not Unions or blacks.

Yeah besides his vicious defamation of my home state I think his thinking here is sound.