2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Valmy]

Why would that be true any more than it is now?  There would still be debates and campaigning.  You can still have Iowa and New Hampshire be on the first week, then say another 3 or 4 on the following week, then the bulk spread over the following weeks.

Air time in Iowa (and I assume in New Hampshire) is relatively cheap.  Air time in delegate rich states is expensive.  Also, the conventional wisdom runs that Iowa and New Hampshire get a boner for retail politics, i.e. they vote for candidates they get to take a picture next to.  That means relatively unknown candidates (such as Obama) are playing on a somewhat level playing field.

Outdated thinking about outdated technology. In a very short time TV is going to be totally different. Structuring our political system around a dying medium is absurd.

[Admiral Yi]

Canada just had a 3 month election campaign.

It was absurdly long by Canadian standards.  Usually it's only 5-6 weeks.

A short election campaign has the virtue that everyone can pay attention all at once.  Nobody but us political geeks pays attention to campaigns that run for months and month.  But even regular joes can pay attention for a few weeks.

Apples and oranges.  You choose party leaders behind closed doors.

[Valmy]

Apples and oranges.  You choose party leaders behind closed doors.

Well they do have to be elected to a constituency. Hey what happens if the party wins but the party leader losses his or her seat? Hmmmm...

[dps]

Apples and oranges.  You choose party leaders behind closed doors.

Well they do have to be elected to a constituency. Hey what happens if the party wins but the party leader losses his or her seat? Hmmmm...

Normally in parliamentary systems, parties either run their leaders in exceedingly safe constituencies, or there's a proportional representational system used where a party will get X number of seats based on the percentage of the vote the party got and the party picks who will fill those seats.

[Barrister]

Canada just had a 3 month election campaign.

It was absurdly long by Canadian standards.  Usually it's only 5-6 weeks.

A short election campaign has the virtue that everyone can pay attention all at once.  Nobody but us political geeks pays attention to campaigns that run for months and month.  But even regular joes can pay attention for a few weeks.

Apples and oranges.  You choose party leaders behind closed doors.

Nu-uh.

Party memberships are sold for $5 or $10 a pop.  Party members then vote directly for the party leader.  130,774 voted in the Liberal party leadership race that elected Trudeau.  97,397 voted in the Conservative Party leadership race.

Well... it's not directly "one member, one vote" because it's normalized so each riding has the same number of points.  But it's definitely not done in stuffy back rooms.

[garbon]

I don't think this applies in the internet age. Every candidate has almost unlimited opportunity to reach every single community in the country for virtually no cost.

Just think about how much we know about that social media campaigner De La Fuente.

[dps]

Canada just had a 3 month election campaign.

It was absurdly long by Canadian standards.  Usually it's only 5-6 weeks.

A short election campaign has the virtue that everyone can pay attention all at once.  Nobody but us political geeks pays attention to campaigns that run for months and month.  But even regular joes can pay attention for a few weeks.

Apples and oranges.  You choose party leaders behind closed doors.

Nu-uh.

Party memberships are sold for $5 or $10 a pop.  Party members then vote directly for the party leader.  130,774 voted in the Liberal party leadership race that elected Trudeau.  97,397 voted in the Conservative Party leadership race.

Well... it's not directly "one member, one vote" because it's normalized so each riding has the same number of points.  But it's definitely not done in stuffy back rooms.

So out of 35 million or so people, if you can get 65,388 people to vote for you, you can become Prime Minister.  That's a pretty sweet deal.

[Barrister]

Canada just had a 3 month election campaign.

It was absurdly long by Canadian standards.  Usually it's only 5-6 weeks.

A short election campaign has the virtue that everyone can pay attention all at once.  Nobody but us political geeks pays attention to campaigns that run for months and month.  But even regular joes can pay attention for a few weeks.

Apples and oranges.  You choose party leaders behind closed doors.

Nu-uh.

Party memberships are sold for $5 or $10 a pop.  Party members then vote directly for the party leader.  130,774 voted in the Liberal party leadership race that elected Trudeau.  97,397 voted in the Conservative Party leadership race.

Well... it's not directly "one member, one vote" because it's normalized so each riding has the same number of points.  But it's definitely not done in stuffy back rooms.

So out of 35 million or so people, if you can get 65,388 people to vote for you, you can become Prime Minister.  That's a pretty sweet deal.

Well both of those elections were when the party was in opposition.

And there were only 17,552,402 votes cast in 2015.

[Admiral Yi]

Nu-uh.

Party memberships are sold for $5 or $10 a pop.  Party members then vote directly for the party leader.  130,774 voted in the Liberal party leadership race that elected Trudeau.  97,397 voted in the Conservative Party leadership race.

Well... it's not directly "one member, one vote" because it's normalized so each riding has the same number of points.  But it's definitely not done in stuffy back rooms.

Which is only $3.60 in real money.  BOOYAH!

So no superdelegates/union veto/some other trick so the party elders can keep hold on the reins?

[Barrister]

Nu-uh.

Party memberships are sold for $5 or $10 a pop.  Party members then vote directly for the party leader.  130,774 voted in the Liberal party leadership race that elected Trudeau.  97,397 voted in the Conservative Party leadership race.

Well... it's not directly "one member, one vote" because it's normalized so each riding has the same number of points.  But it's definitely not done in stuffy back rooms.

Which is only $3.60 in real money.  BOOYAH!

So no superdelegates/union veto/some other trick so the party elders can keep hold on the reins?

Nope.  The NDP even got rid of it's 25% union votes provision.

There may be some room for the party elders to invalidate the candidacy of someone wildly inappopriate, but if it exists, I don't think it has ever been used.  The only instance I can think of, when David Orchard and his anti-free-trade movement almost took over the PC Party, was allowed to go forward.

[Admiral Yi]

Nope.  The NDP even got rid of it's 25% union votes provision.

There may be some room for the party elders to invalidate the candidacy of someone wildly inappopriate, but if it exists, I don't think it has ever been used.  The only instance I can think of, when David Orchard and his anti-free-trade movement almost took over the PC Party, was allowed to go forward.

OK.

So who gets to decide who the candidates are?

[Barrister]

Nope.  The NDP even got rid of it's 25% union votes provision.

There may be some room for the party elders to invalidate the candidacy of someone wildly inappopriate, but if it exists, I don't think it has ever been used.  The only instance I can think of, when David Orchard and his anti-free-trade movement almost took over the PC Party, was allowed to go forward.

OK.

So who gets to decide who the candidates are?

Anyone who shells out the sizeable deposit / entry fee.  For the Liberals in 2013 it was $75k.

[Kleves]

Looks like Trump and Sanders won. 

[11B4V]

I wonder if Hillary is worried.

[Neil]

I wonder if Hillary is worried.

Why would she be?  She must have known that she was going to lose New Hampshire.  She has the superdelegates, the South and the money locked up.  Sure, Sanders will make some noise, but the only thing she should be worried about is if the people who are pro-Bernie are so put off by her machine rolling over their guy that they stay home in the general election.