2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Martinus]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/donald-trump-hispanic-leaders-arizona-immigration-227615

Several Hispanic Trump surrogates reconsider support

Several major Latino surrogates for Donald Trump are reconsidering their support for him following the Republican nominee's hardline speech on immigration Wednesday night.

This just seems bizarre to me. If there is one consistent position that Trump has been taking throughout the campaign, it's his hardline stance on immigration. It's not like he has done any pivot - he just keeps saying the same thing for over a year now. What were they expecting?

To be fair, all of last week, their was speculation, based on comments from his team, that he was going to soften his position.

Still, why would he? And did these people start supporting him only last week?

[garbon]

Phew, Trump takes a mad chop on his KFC Double Down. I wonder why his strategists having him hang his hat so proudly on immigration. Isn't even a key issue for most Americans.

I think you are wrong on the last part. It combines concerns about economy with concerns about security - I think it is a pretty nice wedge issue.

A wedge issue that is seeing him lose, yeah pretty nice that.

[garbon]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/donald-trump-hispanic-leaders-arizona-immigration-227615

Several Hispanic Trump surrogates reconsider support

Several major Latino surrogates for Donald Trump are reconsidering their support for him following the Republican nominee's hardline speech on immigration Wednesday night.

This just seems bizarre to me. If there is one consistent position that Trump has been taking throughout the campaign, it's his hardline stance on immigration. It's not like he has done any pivot - he just keeps saying the same thing for over a year now. What were they expecting?

To be fair, all of last week, their was speculation, based on comments from his team, that he was going to soften his position.

Still, why would he? And did these people start supporting him only last week?

Why would he? Well he brought new staff on board, including a woman whose career is about softening edges of unpopular politicians. I agree that I don't know why they stuck to him this long but I'm not surprised that they thought some sort of change might have taken place yesterday (even if entirely insincere).

[Martinus]

Phew, Trump takes a mad chop on his KFC Double Down. I wonder why his strategists having him hang his hat so proudly on immigration. Isn't even a key issue for most Americans.

I think you are wrong on the last part. It combines concerns about economy with concerns about security - I think it is a pretty nice wedge issue.

A wedge issue that is seeing him lose, yeah pretty nice that.

We will have to wait until November to see whether you are right.

[Razgovory]

Phew, Trump takes a mad chop on his KFC Double Down. I wonder why his strategists having him hang his hat so proudly on immigration. Isn't even a key issue for most Americans.

I think you are wrong on the last part. It combines concerns about economy with concerns about security - I think it is a pretty nice wedge issue.

I'm not sure what they do in Poland, but here you use a wedge issue to split your opponents support, not your own.

[Ed Anger]

So apparently Trump is ranting about deporting Clinton at his speech in Arizona?

Exile her ugly daughter too.

[Martinus]

So apparently Trump is ranting about deporting Clinton at his speech in Arizona?

Exile her ugly daughter too.

[derspiess]

He does that and he can have both my votes

[Sheilbh]

Phew, Trump takes a mad chop on his KFC Double Down. I wonder why his strategists having him hang his hat so proudly on immigration. Isn't even a key issue for most Americans.

I think you are wrong on the last part. It combines concerns about economy with concerns about security - I think it is a pretty nice wedge issue.

-Ish. It's the key issue for Republicans, though Republicans hadn't noticed - despite the rage over the potential of immigration reform, despite Cantor etc. - that that was the case.

In the US as a whole I think it has the potential to be a wedge issue though, perhaps less than in Europe because it's not multi-party and there's a higher proportion of minorities. I think there is definitely capacity for immigration to be a wedge issue for Republicans in minority votes. However to do that tone matters and Trump is running a campaign that is high on racial resentment and, frankly, borderline white supremacist.

It seems to me that for it to work as a wedge issue it can't be a white nationalist issue which is Trump's approach.

[Jacob]

-Ish. It's the key issue for Republicans, though Republicans hadn't noticed - despite the rage over the potential of immigration reform, despite Cantor etc. - that that was the case.

In the US as a whole I think it has the potential to be a wedge issue though, perhaps less than in Europe because it's not multi-party and there's a higher proportion of minorities. I think there is definitely capacity for immigration to be a wedge issue for Republicans in minority votes. However to do that tone matters and Trump is running a campaign that is high on racial resentment and, frankly, borderline white supremacist.

It seems to me that for it to work as a wedge issue it can't be a white nationalist issue which is Trump's approach.

How is it possibly a wedge issue for the Republicans to use? It seems like it's a wedge issue for Democrats to use against Republicans now that Trump has sharpened it so nicely. It's a good way to shave off a number of people who'd normally vote GOP but who are uncomfortable with outright naked bigotry and white supremacism.

Sure, in Europe, there are a number of nominally leftist voters who can be taken from their usual social democratic political homes by virtue of their discomfort with "the other" and the general lack of direction in addressing any immigration related issues. But in the US, those people have been voting GOP for a long time already. I find it hard to see any significant number of normally Democratic leaning voters who will see the GOP stepping up racism as a compelling argument for switching. Which demographics do you have in mind here?

[Barrister]

-Ish. It's the key issue for Republicans, though Republicans hadn't noticed - despite the rage over the potential of immigration reform, despite Cantor etc. - that that was the case.

In the US as a whole I think it has the potential to be a wedge issue though, perhaps less than in Europe because it's not multi-party and there's a higher proportion of minorities. I think there is definitely capacity for immigration to be a wedge issue for Republicans in minority votes. However to do that tone matters and Trump is running a campaign that is high on racial resentment and, frankly, borderline white supremacist.

It seems to me that for it to work as a wedge issue it can't be a white nationalist issue which is Trump's approach.

How is it possibly a wedge issue for the Republicans to use? It seems like it's a wedge issue for Democrats to use against Republicans now that Trump has sharpened it so nicely. It's a good way to shave off a number of people who'd normally vote GOP but who are uncomfortable with outright naked bigotry and white supremacism.

Sure, in Europe, there are a number of nominally leftist voters who can be taken from their usual social democratic political homes by virtue of their discomfort with "the other" and the general lack of direction in addressing any immigration related issues. But in the US, those people have been voting GOP for a long time already. I find it hard to see any significant number of normally Democratic leaning voters who will see the GOP stepping up racism as a compelling argument for switching. Which demographics do you have in mind here?

He only says immigration has the potential to be a wedge issue, not that the way Trump is using it.

Blacks are one possible group it could be used as a wedge.  Increased immigration can put downward pressure on jobs and wages.  Why should blacks necessarily support increased immigration?  And if Republicans could ever crack the Democratic stranglehold on black voters that could be a game-changer for US politics.

But that certainly isn't the game Trump is playing.

[garbon]

-Ish. It's the key issue for Republicans, though Republicans hadn't noticed - despite the rage over the potential of immigration reform, despite Cantor etc. - that that was the case.

In the US as a whole I think it has the potential to be a wedge issue though, perhaps less than in Europe because it's not multi-party and there's a higher proportion of minorities. I think there is definitely capacity for immigration to be a wedge issue for Republicans in minority votes. However to do that tone matters and Trump is running a campaign that is high on racial resentment and, frankly, borderline white supremacist.

It seems to me that for it to work as a wedge issue it can't be a white nationalist issue which is Trump's approach.

How is it possibly a wedge issue for the Republicans to use? It seems like it's a wedge issue for Democrats to use against Republicans now that Trump has sharpened it so nicely. It's a good way to shave off a number of people who'd normally vote GOP but who are uncomfortable with outright naked bigotry and white supremacism.

Sure, in Europe, there are a number of nominally leftist voters who can be taken from their usual social democratic political homes by virtue of their discomfort with "the other" and the general lack of direction in addressing any immigration related issues. But in the US, those people have been voting GOP for a long time already. I find it hard to see any significant number of normally Democratic leaning voters who will see the GOP stepping up racism as a compelling argument for switching. Which demographics do you have in mind here?

Yeah I don't think it likely the Repubs can play it but there is actually a place to whip up minorities - particularly long time settled latinos and blacks vs. illegal immigrants.

[Berkut]

-Ish. It's the key issue for Republicans, though Republicans hadn't noticed - despite the rage over the potential of immigration reform, despite Cantor etc. - that that was the case.

In the US as a whole I think it has the potential to be a wedge issue though, perhaps less than in Europe because it's not multi-party and there's a higher proportion of minorities. I think there is definitely capacity for immigration to be a wedge issue for Republicans in minority votes. However to do that tone matters and Trump is running a campaign that is high on racial resentment and, frankly, borderline white supremacist.

It seems to me that for it to work as a wedge issue it can't be a white nationalist issue which is Trump's approach.

How is it possibly a wedge issue for the Republicans to use? It seems like it's a wedge issue for Democrats to use against Republicans now that Trump has sharpened it so nicely. It's a good way to shave off a number of people who'd normally vote GOP but who are uncomfortable with outright naked bigotry and white supremacism.

Sure, in Europe, there are a number of nominally leftist voters who can be taken from their usual social democratic political homes by virtue of their discomfort with "the other" and the general lack of direction in addressing any immigration related issues. But in the US, those people have been voting GOP for a long time already. I find it hard to see any significant number of normally Democratic leaning voters who will see the GOP stepping up racism as a compelling argument for switching. Which demographics do you have in mind here?

He only says immigration has the potential to be a wedge issue, not that the way Trump is using it.

Blacks are one possible group it could be used as a wedge.  Increased immigration can put downward pressure on jobs and wages.  Why should blacks necessarily support increased immigration?  And if Republicans could ever crack the Democratic stranglehold on black voters that could be a game-changer for US politics.

But that certainly isn't the game Trump is playing.

Increased immigration?

I don't think that is a thing.

[LaCroix]

immigration is a white people concern, not so much a black people concern

[Barrister]

immigration is a white people concern, not so much a black people concern

I'm not sure I agree with you.