Korea Thread: Liberal Moon Jae In Elected

[Razgovory]

Collapse or not, I imagine it would make for a hell of a light show on the DMZ.

[Martinus]

Kim's desire to nuke South Korea is, imo, a decisive proof that he reads Languish.

[Eddie Teach]

[Martinus]

[CountDeMoney]

North Korea ramping up the tension and the missiles, within the last hour unconfirmed reports in S.Korea of heightened activity at Northern missile bases:

They better make it count. 

No shit.  There's a hell of a lot of ordnance just sitting in Japan, Guam, Pearl and CONUS waiting to be used.

But usually when they rattle their little chopsticks, it's all bullshit and not confirmed on the other side:

SEOUL, March 29 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's missile sites have recently shown increased activities in the wake of the communist nation's threat to strike South Korea and the United States in response to their ongoing military drill involving nuclear-capable bombers, military sources in Seoul said Friday.

I'm half leaning towards grumbler's premise:  if the balloon goes up, there's more than a fair chance that NK could collapse once it gets its nose bloody.  I'm sure there's a shit ton of true believers in the NK military that would have to be Republican Guarded from above for 40 days and 40 nights until they die, but once the ROK shove it up their asses for a while, I could see their military assets start falling apart as the we started decimating their C3.

Would be a hell of a mess not seen since, well, the Korean War.

Hey, Timmay...what's your personal contingency plan in the event shit gets real?  A gallon of bottled water and pillows in the windows?

[OttoVonBismarck]

I will say that these last few weeks I've actually seen some Koreans at work be worried that things could get out of hand, something I've never seen before. Even after the Cheonan was sunk and Yeongpyondo was shelled they were just pissed, but they didn't seem to think anything would happen then.

I'm still extremely positive that nothing will happen, but I'll admit this is the closest it feels like we've been to war with them in my life time.

I think there are a few things driving that perception. One of the big ones at least is that I think we really have tried everything with North Korea. What haven't we tried with them? Nothing is working. Plus, North Korea is almost certainly more desperate now than it is has ever been. I believe it's currently subjected to the harshest sanctions they've ever faced. Further, unlike during the Cold War there is no implicit guarantee of anyone being on North Korea's side. In fact if North Korea went full-in crazy and started crossing the DMZ I think China would be likely to start rolling forces south at the same time we carpet bombed all their military installations and leadership sites.

I think China still has some of the same calculus it always did in regard to North Korea but they've come to a realization supporting North Korea is causing such big problems for them that not supporting them is no longer really a big deal. So North Korea not only is facing the harshest sanctions ever from the West, even China has turned its back on them.

So they're basically now in a position where they want to keep making threats to get money, but everyone who might be willing to give them money has now been burned so many times we aren't really sure we want to go that route. So we're left with basically telling them, "have all the temper tantrums you want, but do understand there will be consequences if you go off the rails again." South Korea has promised in response to another Yeonpyeong or Cheonan the South is going to directly counterattack North Korea, and the U.S. has basically said it's willing to do the same. This means current Kim is in a position where he might feel he has to do something like his father did and shell part of South Korea or launch a missile at someone, but the response from the U.S. and South Korea could be a direct counter attack.

If that happens Kim and by extension the military leadership have to decide if they want full war or do they capitulate and ask for a return to the six party talks (or however many parties it was.) If Kim capitulates he'll have no credibility with the military leadership and most likely loses power. If he doesn't, it's possible there is a military coup as forces inside the military may recognize the catastrophic outcome of war with basically the entire Western world, South Korea, and possibly China.

[OttoVonBismarck]

What has always worried me the most is there is a shit ton of hardened artillery positions in range of Seoul, which is the heart of South Korea's economy and home to millions of people. If real war broke out we'd obviously do everything we could to strike at that artillery but conventional artillery is just too easy to do correctly and too hard to wipe out completely to avoid probably massive civilian casualties and tens of billions of dollars in damage to Seoul.

I've always wondered what the ROK and US Forces Korea's contingency plans were for that situation. In fact I've sometimes wondered, since it's been like this for decades, if maybe Seoul should have been basically abandoned gradually despite the massive costs of doing so. Its close proximity to the North has basically always meant the North has in its pocket the ability to wipe out South Korea's biggest, most important city in any war.

Plus, given the large size of the DPRK military and the relatively small number of forces immediately available to respond, it's possible we'd not be able to stop an initial DPRK push into Seoul. They could end up "holding the city hostage." (I'm not convinced we'd be unable to disrupt the DPRK advance, a major troop movement is highly susceptible to bombing from above when they have no hope of air superiority, but a lot of boots is still a lot of boots.)

[CountDeMoney]

I think China still has some of the same calculus it always did in regard to North Korea but they've come to a realization supporting North Korea is causing such big problems for them that not supporting them is no longer really a big deal. So North Korea not only is fashing the harshest sanctions ever from the West, even China has turned its back on them.

I'm not totally convinced that China's come to that realization yet.  Sure, NK poses diplomatic issues for China with the ROTW, but alongside all the other issues in the region, it's just clutter.  The Chinese have yet to see any real blowback in allowing NK to remain a foil, and the occasional attempts of Northerners to hop the wire into China is something they've been used to for decades.  As we've seen time and time again with the Chinese, they're relatively nonplussed when it comes to NK being goofy, and it serves China's purposes to keep everybody else on their toes. 

If that happens Kim and by extension the military leadership have to decide if they want full war or they capitulate. If Kim capitulates he'll have no credibility with the military leadership and most likely loses power. If he doesn't, it's possible there is a military coup as forces inside the military may recognize the catastrophic outcome of war with basically the entire Western world, South Korea, and possibly China.

I could see a military coup;  those generals would take their lifestyles over destruction any day.  Thing is, how many generals in the NK military are just as goofy as Kim is?  The careerists are more than generations removed from post-war Korea;  they've been baking in the DPRK incubator their entire lives.   There's no post-1953 generation anymore.

[Ed Anger]

I'm getting a war boner.

[CountDeMoney]

I've always wondered what the ROK and US Forces Korea's contingency plans were for that situation. In fact I've sometimes wondered, since it's been like this for decades, if maybe Seoul should have been basically abandoned gradually despite the massive costs of doing so. Its close proximity to the North has basically always meant the North has in its pocket the ability to wipe out South Korea's biggest, most important city in any war.

My old college roommate was stationed for three years in South Korea north of Seoul as an MLRS company commander in the '90s, around the time that NK sub got beached and they searched for the crew for days;  he always said they expected to lose Seoul and get pocketed by the offensive that far north.  They'd try to preposition their batteries in the mountains where they maintain their munitions, to roll in and out of their bunkers for fire missions, but their units expected to be cut off in large swathes between the NKs and the refugees, and figured they'd have to hold out on their own as long as possible.

That's why his BC bought an old M113 from the ROKs and welded two bulldozer scoops to the front as a cattle catcher;  to plow through everybody when it was time to haul ass.

The only thing about the NK's prepositioned arty and SSM batteries is that the ROKs pretty much know where it all is, and are as dialed in to their locations as the NK is on Seoul.  City would pretty much be stop being a city in the first 48 hours, though.

[Admiral Yi]

Nothing will happen.

[Ed Anger]

Timmay getting plowed by an m113? Dreamy.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Nothing will happen.

Something will happen.

[CountDeMoney]

Nothing will happen.

I want to see Timmay captured and become a Manchurian Candidate, infiltrating the West with poorly worded and badly spelled internet posts about useless news.

Oh, wait.

[KRonn]

If fighting breaks out, which doesn't cause the NK regime to implode or be removed via a coup, and the North tries to fight it out, should we think that China would intervene on behalf of the North Koreans? Would China allow its troublesome ally to be over run? As some have pointed out, supporting NK may really not be worth it to China anymore, support being trouble than cutting them loose, but I wonder what China's thinking will be if there's a shootout on the Peninsula, with SK and US troops advancing into the North.  I also can't imagine China would be happy with the prospects of a Democratic Korea on their border.