Korea Thread: Liberal Moon Jae In Elected

[Neil]

Yeah, interceptors are pointless when dealing with a real country.  MIRVed ICBMs are unstoppable.

[mongers]

Seems like an eminently sensible think to do at this juncture, wave a big stick to remind N.K. of the consequences of any new outrage:

US B-2 stealth bombers in South Korea drill

The US has flown two B-2 stealth bombers over South Korea as part of a military exercise.

The US said it demonstrated its forces could conduct "long-range, precision strikes quickly and at will".

The move follows strong rhetoric from Pyongyang and comes a day after it cut a military hotline with the South.

The hotline had been used mainly to facilitate cross-border travel at a joint industrial complex, which was said to be operating normally.

More than 160 South Korean commuters went through border control on Thursday morning to start work at the Kaesong complex, after being approved for entry by North Korea, officials said.

North Korean authorities had used a civilian phone line to arrange the crossing, they added.

The joint project is a source of badly-needed hard currency for the North. Around 120 South Korean firms operate at Kaesong industrial park, employing an estimated 50,000 North Korean workers.

At present, the risk is not one of large-scale war or nuclear attack, but one of miscalculation.

North Korea continues to search for new ways to issue threats - partly in an attempt by the regime to consolidate power at home, and partly in the hope that the US cancels its exercises as President Clinton did. As Pyongyang does so, the West calls their bluff and continues to carry out drills and B-52 flights over the peninsula.

This concerning pattern occurs in the absence of any regular engagement between the US and North Korea. Should it persist, the risk of miscalculation by either side will rise.

North Korea could read a future US move incorrectly and determine that an imminent and existential threat to the regime exists - then choose to pre-empt it. Or, if too many of its bluffs are called, Pyongyang may feel that its rhetoric no longer deters. It may decide that more aggressive action is needed to match its words.
What is driving North Korea's threats?

Pyongyang has been angered both by annual US-South Korea military drills, and the fresh UN sanctions that followed its third nuclear test on 12 February.

The hotline it severed was the last direct official link between the two nations. A Red Cross hotline and another line used to communicate with the UN Command at Panmunjom have already been cut. An inter-Korean air-traffic hotline still exists.

North Korea has also made multiple threats against both the US and South Korea in recent weeks, including warning of a "pre-emptive nuclear strike" on the US and the scrapping of the Korean War armistice.

North Korea is not thought to have the technology to strike the US mainland with either a nuclear weapon or a ballistic missile, but it is capable of targeting some US military bases in Asia with its mid-range missiles.

The US military said in a statement that the B-2 flight showed US "capability to defend the Republic of Korea [South Korea] and to provide extended deterrence to our allies in the Asia-Pacific region".

The two nuclear-capable planes flew from Whitman Air force Base in Missouri to South Korea as part of a "single, continuous" round trip mission during which they dropped "inert munitions on the Jik Do Range", the statement said.

......

rest of item here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21963369

[derspiess]

I think we should do something to *really* antagonize them. 

[CountDeMoney]

I think we should do something to *really* antagonize them.

I honestly think they wouldn't know what to do.
They're so used to driving the escalation process with their bullshit which, from shelling islands to sinking ships, is so scripted and planned, I think if they were on the other end they'd have collective brain freeze.

[grumbler]

I think the ABM system is a giant waste, for the most part.

But that article is so badly written, and so full of logical fallacies that I am thinking about becoming a supporter.

The basic argument is that we should not try to shoot down a fucking nuclear missile fired at the US, because it would take 5 missiles to shoot down 1, and 5:1 is a crappy exchange rate?

Or that we should not try to shoot down a nuclear armed ICBM fired at the US because if we do, surely the Russians, being drunk and all, will immediately launch a massive counter strike against the US? Gosh, couldn't we just, I don't know, call the fucking Russians on the phone and let them know?

The article is, indeed, full of crap.  The author has an obvious ax to grind, and doesn't even hide his lack of credibility.  Only a Timmay (or Grabon with his Gothamite guy) would post something like this and expect there to be an intelligent debate over the article.

The state of the art of ballistic missile defense systems is, indeed, pretty primitive.  And costly.  But, frankly, the idea that we should abandon ABM defenses because they are currently primitive and costly is a mug's game.  Guys like Lewis will always find some hypothetical future system that will so outperform existing prototypes that going to production will always be a waste of a ton of money.  Better is the enemy of good enough.  If it costs a billion dollars to convince Kim that the US can neutralize his hypothetical nuclear strike on the US, that's money well-spent.

[mongers]

North Korea ramping up the tension and the missiles, within the last hour unconfirmed reports in S.Korea of heightened activity at Northern missile bases:

North Korea 'readies rocket force' after US stealth flights

North Korea says it has put missile units on stand-by to attack US targets in response to US stealth bomber flights over the Korean peninsula.

State news agency KCNA said leader Kim Jong-un signed off on the order at a late-night meeting of top generals.

The time had come to "settle accounts" with the US, KCNA quoted him as saying, with the B-2 flights an "ultimatum".

Pyongyang has been angered by fresh UN sanctions and annual US-South Korea military drills.

The US - which flew two stealth bombers over the peninsula on Thursday as part of the ongoing military drills - has said it is ready for "any eventuality" on the peninsula.

Kim Jong-un placed the rocket units on standby after an emergency meeting at 00:30 on Friday (15:30 GMT), KNCA said.

Tensions in the Korean peninsula are high following North Korea's third nuclear test on 12 February.

North Korea has also made multiple threats against both the US and South Korea in recent weeks, including warning of a "pre-emptive nuclear strike" on the US and the scrapping of the Korean War armistice.

North Korea is not thought to have the technology to strike the US mainland with either a nuclear weapon or a ballistic missile, but it is capable of targeting some US military bases in Asia with its mid-range missiles.

On Wednesday, Pyongyang cut a military hotline with the south - the last direct official link between the two nations.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21972936

[jimmy olsen]

I will say that these last few weeks I've actually seen some Koreans at work be worried that things could get out of hand, something I've never seen before. Even after the Cheonan was sunk and Yeongpyondo was shelled they were just pissed, but they didn't seem to think anything would happen then.

[mongers]

I will say that these last few weeks I've actually seen some Koreans at work be worried that things could get out of hand, something I've never seen before. Even after the Cheonan was sunk and Yeongpyondo was shelled they were just pissed, but they didn't seem to think anything would happen then.

Yeah, worrying times, stay safe you and Tyr, have a good meet-up.

[grumbler]

I'm almost hoping the NK regime pulls the trigger.  I think that what will happen then is that the regime will implode and no attack on the south will actually occur. I think we will see some lynchings of the regime's leaders, and a plea for SK to take over.

I can remember when Albania was the "Hermit Regime" and everyone figured they were going to die for their rulers, rather than allowing in common sense.  They turned out to be just another mafia.

I'm almost sure this is true.  Almost.  I wouldn't bet a million lives on it, even at 100:1 odds, though.

[katmai]

I'd bet Timmay's life on it.

[mongers]

One of the ticker-tape news feeds has this US response:

Secretary of defense Chuck Hagel says u.s. will "unequivocally defend" south korea against any action by north korea

[Neil]

South Korea taking over North Korea?  That'd be a disaster.  All those helpless North Koreans being thrown into an advanced, predatory society?  That'd be a humanitarian catastrophe on par with continuing to live in North Korea.

[CountDeMoney]

One of the ticker-tape news feeds has this US response:

Secretary of defense Chuck Hagel says u.s. will "unequivocally defend" south korea against any action by north korea

So, in other words, a normal policy statement.

[11B4V]

North Korea ramping up the tension and the missiles, within the last hour unconfirmed reports in S.Korea of heightened activity at Northern missile bases:

They better make it count. 

[DGuller]

I'm almost hoping the NK regime pulls the trigger.  I think that what will happen then is that the regime will implode and no attack on the south will actually occur. I think we will see some lynchings of the regime's leaders, and a plea for SK to take over.

I don't know about that.  Fransco Solano Lopez kept Paraguay fighting until nearly every adult male in the country was dead.  That was 150 years ago, long before the age of wholesale brainwashing and programming of the masses.