Korea Thread: Liberal Moon Jae In Elected

[mongers]

It's a worrying time. In the event that Trump's outsized personality and North Korea's inherent unpredictability lead to an armed conflict,  I hope that Japan can be spared from any major attacks.

Indeed.

Hoping you and your family stay safe.

[Grinning_Colossus]

They'll nuke Atlanta and Richmond instead.

[CountDeMoney]

Fuck, I wish.

[Maximus]

prolifically die.

I don't think that word means what you think it means.

[DGuller]

Few words do.

[CountDeMoney]

Mark Harris‏Verified account
@MarkHarrisNYC 2h

We're threatening nuclear war w N Korea, and he's in Florida. If you voted for Trump, never make a decision again. What you did is that bad.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I'm actually feeling a faint amount of grimness about this, I may be misreading him but I think Trump really will order an attack if fatty detonates another nuke at their underground testing site. I also think Fatty really will respond in a dramatic fashion, and I have doubts Trump will be cool with letting a serious North Korean retaliation go unanswered.

Obama actually engaged in a bit of brinksmanship in like 2012 or so, and he basically "deescalated it" when he decided things were getting too serious, for some reason I don't see that being a move that Trump has in his playbook.

I'm also tactically concerned about these destroyers, I have to imagine the Norks have anti-ship missiles that we'd probably not be able to do much about.

[Tonitrus]

I dunno.  We'd have noticed if we upped our ground game in SK by now, and if things go full-scale, that means the ROK will be taking on the bulk of the burden this time around.  I wonder if they signed on to that possibility.

[CountDeMoney]

I'm actually feeling a faint amount of grimness about this, I may be misreading him but I think Trump really will order an attack if fatty detonates another nuke at their underground testing site. I also think Fatty really will respond in a dramatic fashion, and I have doubts Trump will be cool with letting a serious North Korean retaliation go unanswered.

Obama actually engaged in a bit of brinksmanship in like 2012 or so, and he basically "deescalated it" when he decided things were getting too serious, for some reason I don't see that being a move that Trump has in his playbook.

I for one always appreciate the added scholarly gravitas you bring to the forum, Otto.  It's like, when you say it, it makes it even more said.

I'm also tactically concerned about these destroyers, I have to imagine the Norks have anti-ship missiles that we'd probably not be able to do much about.

Their ASMs have a much shorter range than the launch range needed for Tomahawks.  Need to be more worried about their shitty little diesel boats.

Besides, your pathologically narcissistic and functionally illiterate President already grabbed OPSEC's pussy on FOX yesterday--

"We have submarines. Very powerful. Far more powerful than the aircraft carrier."

OOH SPOILER ALERT

[Ed Anger]

Di I have: gravitas? Is it contagious?

[CountDeMoney]

That's why you installed those handicap bars in the bathroom, baby.  Those massive dumps don't white-knuckle themselves.

[Ed Anger]

 

[OttoVonBismarck]

Trump also said in an interview the other day he bombed Iraq as he was having dessert with Xi...only for the Fox News femmebot to remind him it was actually Syria  .

I agree with Timmay if we were planning something big ROK would be basically heavily mobilized at this point, so I do kind of discount the "pre-emptive strike" stuff NBC ran with a little bit ago. I don't think there's a planned pre-emptive strike, but I have a suspicion Trump may think it wise to "roll the dice" so to speak and blow a few things up in response to a "provocation." His gamble would be North Korea wouldn't respond with an insane level of force, which I wouldn't want to have a stake in that round of poker for anything.

I also have a suspicion that Trump did come to some level of "agreement" with Xi. I mean the newspapers in China are generally a way for the Communist Party to telegraph things it wants telegraphed. They've penned articles in recent days indicating anyone who starts violence on the peninsula will be "held responsible by history", and that North Korea needs to abandon its nuclear weapons program and accept Chinese protection. Now, China has long been publicly against "any nuclear weapons" on the peninsula, but the rest of the rhetoric is a bit new.

I read at least part of that as suggesting China is thinly veiled threatening Kim that "we don't have your back in any shape or form" if Kim provokes an American attack; and also maybe on some level reminding the U.S. that it isn't giving permission for a pre-emptive strike either. The other part would seem to suggest some sort of tit-for-tat where if Kim denuclearizes China is willing to do certain things to guarantee Kim's authority within North Korea, which is probably some deal that has been previously suggested to Kim by the Chinese through private channels and is being reinforced publicly.

It's also possible we're just trying to see if we can bluster our way into convincing NK not to do a nuclear test this weekend.

FWIW the other plans I'm hearing about from Trump on North Korea sound more mundane but would also be pretty provocative. There's been talks of him going after Chinese companies that do business with North Korea (shutting them out of international banking and etc), and even things like an embargo on North Korean shipping. An embargo I remind, is itself generally seen as an act of war and would be the biggest provocation in the region since the Korean War itself, so it's a little concerning that it's one of many ideas being casually bandied about.

[CountDeMoney]

Does Donald J. Trump really strike you as the kind of person that would possess the frontal lobe activity to actually notify the South Koreans? Remember, he doesn't talk about military responses, he likes to be "unpredictable."

[frunk]

Does Donald J. Trump really strike you as the kind of person that would possess the frontal lobe activity to actually notify the South Koreans? Remember, he doesn't talk about military responses, he likes to be "unpredictable."

He's also be a big fan of the word unilateral.