NCAA football, 2013-14

[Barrister]

You know, given his sudden in-depth interest in college football, I truly believe that AR is the poster formerly known as D4H.

[Ed Anger]

You know, given his sudden in-depth interest in college football, I truly believe that AR is the poster formerly known as D4H.

Jokes over son.

[alfred russel]

There are no sure things when transitioning an elite program. The head coach is so important that the odds are always slim that you are going to get someone else that is as good as the last guy.

As far as Oregon being unique, that is just bullshit. They run a spread, high tempo offense. There are a ton of other coaches doing the same thing. They are not that unusual, except in that they have done it incredibly well.

I look at Oregon replacing Kelly like Arizona replacing Olson (absent the tranistion mess off course). There was plenty of pressure at Arizona to bring in someone from the Oloson coaching tree, and there are plenty of guys out there who fit that bill. But the way I see it, for any given coach, you are rolling some dice to see what you get - you can never REALLY know.

And the odds that someone you promote from within having that special whatever that separates the good coaches from the truly great coaches are slim. Kelly was a incredible break for Oregon. Thinking you are going to have the lightning hit twice is foolish.

And moreover, the situation was not the same - when they promoted Kelly Oregon was a very good program trying to become elite. They weren't going to attract an already established top tier head coach, and given that, there was no pressing reason to roll the dice on someone unfamiliar with the program when there was a solid assistant who was a very good high potential up and coming assistant - and he turned out to be outstanding.  Now that is NOT the case - Oregon is no longer a pretty good program trying to become elite, they were an elite program trying to stay elite. They should have gone out and gotten themselves an established, high profile, proven commodity. With the Nike money and facilities that Oregon has, they could have done so, I would think.

Trying to imagine that Helfrich would just ve Kelly 2.0 was a pipe dream. Helfrich may very well be a pretty damn good coach, but Oregon needs an outstanding coach to remain at the level they've established. And that is very, very hard to do.

I named 5 sort of elite coaches running up tempo spread offenses...I don't think any were a clear answer for Oregon's situation. I'd be interested in a list of names you think are a better choice.

With these requirements:
West Coast recruiting ties
Up tempo spread offense
Significant head coaching success

The only slam dunk I see is Chris Petersen, and I assume Oregon couldn't get him.

Also, do you really qualify as an elite program before you've won a national title?

[sbr]

I didn't mean to imply that Oregon shouldn't have hired Helfrich.  He was the best hire at the time, though I had the same reservations then and I don't think they are unfounded concerns.  The football landscape is littered with guys who could coordinate the hell out of a game but couldn't cut it as the head guy; see:  Norv Turner, Charlie Wiess, Norm Chow off the top of my head; there are many, many others.  I was actually very surprised He;frich didn't get hired by someone else (Cal) before Kelly left.  He was a hot commodity and Oregon was able to get him.

I was addressing what is "wrong" with Oregon football now.  We will obviously need to see another couple seasons, unless something disastrous happens in the next 12 months (especially on the recruiting front) to decide if Helfrich is "the guy" here, or anywhere.  It will be very interesting to see how they respond to playing in the Alamo or Holiday Bowl, it is so far away from where everyone thought they would be that it is one of those games where I wouldn't be shocked to see them lose.  Just a few weeks ago DeAnthony Thomas was saying how uninteresting going back to the Rose Bowl would be.  How about San Diego or San Antonio in December instead of January?  It will be a real trick to get these 18-21 year old kids focused on a game they never thought they would have to play.

Oregon has the facilities, commitment to the program from school admin and boosters, and plenty of money to continue to be very good with the right guy leading the way.  I hope it is Mark Helfrich, but I also know that if the powers-that-be decide he is not they will get rid of him and bring in someone else who they think can be. 

I personally don't think playing in a BCS Bowl on a yearly basis is where Oregon is as a program right now, no matter how much the newer "fans" feel.  They just do not have the recruiting base in state to maintain that.  They have made great recruiting inroads in California and Texas over the last few years, and occasionally get the stud 5-star blue chipper (Jonathon Stewart, Haloti Ngata, DeAnthony Thomas) but they are still not able (or want) to get that level of talent consistently and that is why they lose a game each year even before the bowl season.


As for AR's "elite" comment, I don't have much interest in semantics debates but who would be considered "elite" now by that definition?  Is FSU "elite" since they won a NC 15 years ago then had 11 out of 14 mediocre to good seasons between now and then?  Ohio State?  They haven't lost a game in 2 years but play a weak schedule and were average-to-good before Meyer showed up.  Auburn the one-hit-wonder?   Who else has won a NC, is very good this year and has been for multiple years in a row?

Oregon has played in 4 straight BCS games, including one NC game.  The last 2 they won very convincingly.  Only 3 other teams have done that:  early 2000's Miami, mid-decade USC and late-decade Ohio State.  Those team all won at least one title in those runs, so the Ducks don't compare there, but they also don't come even close in NFL talent during those streaks.  Miami had 15 first round picks in 2001, Oregon has had 8 players drafted in ANY round in the last 3.  Oregon has finished the last 4 seasons ranked:  11, 3, 4, 2.  They have had 5-6 straight top 20 recruiting classes.  They may not meet some people's random definition of "elite", but they have been one of the top 5-6 programs over the last few years and even if that isn't "elite"  I will take it.  It has been a very fun ride, and I hope it is not over.

[grumbler]

Well, The Game has suddenly become very interesting.  35-35 with 5 minutes to go.  I had expected complete OSU dominance, because Michigan hasn't had an offense in weeks.  Suddenly, this.  500 yards against this OSU defense?  Didn't see that coming.

[Berkut]

Oregon has played in 4 straight BCS games, including one NC game.  The last 2 they won very convincingly.  Only 3 other teams have done that:  early 2000's Miami, mid-decade USC and late-decade Ohio State.  Those team all won at least one title in those runs, so the Ducks don't compare there, but they also don't come even close in NFL talent during those streaks.  Miami had 15 first round picks in 2001, Oregon has had 8 players drafted in ANY round in the last 3.  Oregon has finished the last 4 seasons ranked:  11, 3, 4, 2.  They have had 5-6 straight top 20 recruiting classes.  They may not meet some people's random definition of "elite", but they have been one of the top 5-6 programs over the last few years and even if that isn't "elite"  I will take it.  It has been a very fun ride, and I hope it is not over.

I hate Oregon with a burning passion, as they represent everything that is wrong about college athletics, but I can't imagine what lengths you would need to twist yourself into to come up with a definition of "elite" that would not include them over the last 5-6 years.

They haven't won the Big One, but that is mostly because they play in a brutal conference where going undefeated is nearly impossible, IMO.

[grumbler]

And Ohio State wins, 42-41, on Michigan's failed 2-point conversion at the end of the game.  Great game, though.  My pre-game prediction was OSU 39-6.

[Valmy]

And Ohio State wins, 42-41, on Michigan's failed 2-point conversion at the end of the game.  Great game, though.  My pre-game prediction was OSU 39-6.

I watched from right when Michigan tied it at 35 until the end and I didn't get that decision, Michigan's offense had been rolling all day.  Why not try your hand at overtime?  I mean this was not the 1984 Orange Bowl, honor did not demand Hoke go for the lead there.

[grumbler]

I watched from right when Michigan tied it at 35 until the end and I didn't get that decision, Michigan's offense had been rolling all day.  Why not try your hand at overtime?  I mean this was not the 1984 Orange Bowl, honor did not demand Hoke go for the lead there.

Michigan was injured, and didn't have their ace kicker (and the backup was wobbly all day).  Carlos Hyde was running rampant, and Michigan's backup LBs (two starters out) couldn't stop him.  The 2-point conversion was a far better gamble than OT.  That was absolutely the right call.  Not the right play call (a good OC would have had a second play ready when OSU called the timeout after seeing Michigan's formation lined up for the conversion), and Michigan's QB had plenty of time to check down his receivers when he saw his go-to guy covered, but that's been his weakness all year, and he threw to the primary receiver even though he was double-teamed, exactly as OSU wanted.

Great call by the head coach, poor call by the OC.

[CountDeMoney]

Can't really disagree on the call to go for the win--on the road, different story--but should've kept it on the ground, like some sort of option pitch or something.  Three things can happen when you throw the ball, and two of them are bad.

Fucking Ohio State.  Obi Hoke Kenobi, you were our only hope.  Now it falls upon the Spartoons.

[CountDeMoney]

Auburn can win this game if they stay committed to grinding it out on the ground. And stop coughing it up.

[Valmy]

Auburn can win this game if they stay committed to grinding it out on the ground. And stop coughing it up.

History suggests Auburn wins and then Florida State and Ohio State both lose in their title games and Alabama wins the National Title anyway.

[grumbler]

Can't really disagree on the call to go for the win--on the road, different story--but should've kept it on the ground, like some sort of option pitch or something.  Three things can happen when you throw the ball, and two of them are bad.

Fucking Ohio State.  Obi Hoke Kenobi, you were our only hope.  Now it falls upon the Spartoons.

Michigan had run the ball with little success in the game.  What they should have done was to get both their big receivers in the game (neither was there) rather than relying on a slot munchkin who was great with YAC, but wasn't a jump-ball type.

Gardner's hit was re-injured in the game, or he could have walked it in up the middle.  OSU played great defense on that play, and they did so because Meyer finally outcoached Hoke on a play. 

MSU actually has a chance in their game.  They match up well defensively to what OSU does offensively.  I'm not sure their offense is capable of outplaying OSU's defense, though.

[MadBurgerMaker]

Welp. Barring a Rosenfelsesque meltdown, UTSA is going to beat LATech (30-10 with 5ish left), but it doesn't appear that Tulane is going to get the w over rice. Probably no bowl for them either.

Still, 7-5 is a solid season for them.

[Berkut]

This Arizona ASU game should be interesting tonight. I could see it going any which way - Arizona could be coming off a letdown from the Oregon upset and get rolled by ASU, ASU could be not nearly as good as they think and Arizona is peaking at the right time (see game against Oregon) and roll ASU, or it could be a tough matchup that comes down to a score either way.

I can never predict this rivalry game....