NCAA football, 2013-14

[sbr]

I was afraid the Ducks were going to get smoked yesterday.  It felt like the classic one team doesn't want to be there, other team has motivation to get the win game.

The Ducks showed up to play, which you can't always assume will happen with 18-20 year old kids who until 6 weeks ago figured they would be playing for the national championship. 

Oh yeah, and Texas' offense is dreadfull.

Well I was thinking that Texas would be smoked.  There was some thought that maybe everybody would rally and win one for the gipper but the reports coming out of practice were not good.  Mack didn't really want to be there, the assistant coaches were distracted, the players were demoralized.  You certainly didn't see evidence of that from GERG's group last night though, Robinson was clearly coaching his tail off.  But beyond that I think everybody saw the things that made the Texas fan base think it was time for the end of the Mack era.  Max Olson from ESPN summed it up I thought:

A once-great program that now has no on-field identity and few discernable advantages lost to a powerhouse. This, quite simply, was why Brown's time is finished.

Though if I am an Oregon fan I am worried about this new regime, that team looks undisciplined.  I left wondering if they would be able to overcome the loss of Chip Kelly in the longterm, at least so far their status as a national powerhouse.

I had the game on TV while I was doing other stuff but wasn't really watching the whole thing.  What made them look undisciplined?  Penalties or something else?  I do follow a bunch of people who cover the team on Twitter and don't remember any of them saying anything about it. 

As for the second part, I think you are right.  They have been slowly trending upwards since the early '90s but I always thought their ceiling was being in the running for the Rose Bowl every year.  I don't think Oregon has the recruiting base to be a perennial Top 10, BCS team.  They have always recruited well in California, and have made some nice inroads into Texas in the last decade, but there is a serious lack of home grown talent.  5 star kids are very rare, and even 4 stars aren't falling off of trees up here; I don't think you can consistently be at that level when you are relying on pulling talent out of other schools' backyard.  I was going to say unless you are a "national" program like Notre Dame, but they can't do it either.

Coaching can help make up for a talent gap (more so in college football than any other sport?), and Chip Kelly is pretty clearly a very good, or better, football coach.  Mark Helfrich could be the second best football coach in Oregon history and the program would still likely take a step back.  I don't know how much the coach or staff had to do with the loss at Arizona this year, but I think you have to assume that it was something.  Maybe they lose that game even if Kelly was still here, but outside of the Boise State game in his very first game, Kelly never lost a game he "should have" won (of course he didn't win many he "should have" lost either).  Maybe that Arizona game would have been the one, but obviously we will never know.

Another big part in Oregon's success has been the ridiculous stability in their assistant coach staff; outside of the OC (which is a 2-3 year max tenure around here) everyone else has been around for 20+ years and through 3-4 head coaching regimes.  Now I think we may be coming to the end of that.  DC Nick Aliotti is retiring after last night, OC Scott Frost may leave this off season; if not he will almost surely be gone next, unless the Ducks fall off a cliff next year which I can't see happening with Mariota back and healthy.  I think some of the other "old timers" may start leaving in the next couple of years also.

That brings up the next worry, is Oregon able and willing to pay the new going rate on top tier coordinators?  Aliotti made just over $400K this year; Frost is young and new but only made $367K.  Oregon and Uncle Phil have shown they have no problems with large one off cash drops for new facilities and upgrades, but there is some worry around here that they might not be interested in paying close to a million a year each for top level coordinators.

Oregon has a lot of "resources", a very nice head start in the facilities arms race and a pretty decent commitment from the current administration but I don't know if all of that is enough to overcome the inherent disadvantages over time.  I mentioned recruiting, there is also the problem of the school being in Eugene Oregon; some kids like getting away to a small town in the "middle of nowhere" but I would guess far more would be turned off by it.  Autzen Stadium is smallish and I don't know how much more they can add to it.

The craziest thing to me is the level of expectation and by fans around here.  13 years ago the Ducks beat Texas in the Holiday Bowl.  That was Oregon's first ever 10 win season.  Now people are going insane because the Ducks didn't make it to a 5th straight BCS game.  They wanted the coaching staff fired immediately after the Arizona game; there were people who were upset when Mariota said he was coming back, like he was a problem; they acted like a 10-2 season and a good bowl game was the worst thing that ever happened to them.

I was around for the horrible years in the late '70 and through the '80s.  A 10 win season is still pretty fun for me.  It has been a very fun ride the last 5-6 years and I hope it continues, but I really am not expecting it to continue at that level.

[dps]

Oregon has a lot of "resources", a very nice head start in the facilities arms race and a pretty decent commitment from the current administration but I don't know if all of that is enough to overcome the inherent disadvantages over time.  I mentioned recruiting, there is also the problem of the school being in Eugene Oregon; some kids like getting away to a small town in the "middle of nowhere" but I would guess far more would be turned off by it.  Autzen Stadium is smallish and I don't know how much more they can add to it.

That can easily be overcome if you know what you're doing when recruiting.  If there are 6 top prospects at a given position you're looking at, and 3 of them want to play at a school in a big-city setting, 1 wants to play on the East Coast, 1 wants to play in a college town type setting, and one doesnt care about any of that but just wants to play for a good program, if you're Oregon, obviously you target the last 2 guys and don't waste your time on the first 4.

[Admiral Yi]

I'm curious of any of you football factory guys ever met a "recruiting hostess."

[MadImmortalMan]

You sometimes see those tours going around the Woody Hayes Center. They like to show off all the Heismans and memorabilia to the high school jocks. I always assumed those were students doing work-study. I was so naive back then.

[Berkut]

I'm curious of any of you football factory guys ever met a "recruiting hostess."

I was one...

[MadImmortalMan]

To be fair, some of the ones I saw back then were probably not as pretty as Berkut...

[MadBurgerMaker]

Really liking the Rose Bowl so far. 

[jimmy olsen]

Anybody here watch the Chick-fil-A Bowl?

The highlights looked great.

[MadBurgerMaker]

Sparty finally got themselves another Rose Bowl W.

[alfred russel]

Sparty finally got themselves another Rose Bowl W.

The Big 10 is 2-4 in bowls at this point, and it feels as though they are doing well. The previous decade has really done wonders for Big 10 expectation management.

[Berkut]

That is about the only Pac-12 bowl result that surprises me, actually. I thought Stanford would handle MSU handily - was thinking something like 28-18 or so.

[alfred russel]

That is about the only Pac-12 bowl result that surprises me, actually. I thought Stanford would handle MSU handily - was thinking something like 28-18 or so.

I think Stanford has been overrated all year. They match up really well with Oregon, but besides that game they haven't been so impressive. I think David Shaw is way too conservative. My guess is that Stanford's run at the top tier of the Pac 12 will be over after next year, if not after this year.

[Berkut]

That is about the only Pac-12 bowl result that surprises me, actually. I thought Stanford would handle MSU handily - was thinking something like 28-18 or so.

I think Stanford has been overrated all year. They match up really well with Oregon, but besides that game they haven't been so impressive. I think David Shaw is way too conservative. My guess is that Stanford's run at the top tier of the Pac 12 will be over after next year, if not after this year.

You may very well be right - they are a physical team who does really well matching up against athletic teams, but apparently not so well when matched up against other physical teams.

They can dish it out, but they can't take it?

[MadImmortalMan]

Looks like Baylor might not pull this off..

[MadImmortalMan]

You may very well be right

It's more likely he's underrating their opponents.