Iran test fires missile capable of reaching US bases or Israel

[The Minsky Moment]

I think it is reasonably clear that there is some political balance of forces within the Iranian "government", and that there are moderating forces and extremists.  While I agree that the Iranian government is too incoherent to be called rational, I don't think any single faction ever has enough power to do anything holly irrational (like, say, nuking Israel), at least not right now. 

I don't think so either but I don't really know, and more troubling, I don't really know how to assess the question in any reliable way.  Factional balance of power tends to instability (as the Roman republic found out to name only one example).  If there were clear institutional mechanisms in place that could regulate behavior or check extremist impulses, i would be more reassured by such claims.  But these don't exist, in the same way they do even in authoritarian regimes like China or Russia or even Pakistan.

[The Minsky Moment]

- It's true that the inner workings of the Iranian government are puzzling, but 30 years of experience with the 'Islamic Republic' show no evidence whatsoever of a taste for big foreign military adventures. Rethoric can be thunderous, and some money and material support seem to have been sent abroad, but comparations with Wilhelmine Germany or the French revolutionaries seem quite misplaced. Actually the regime seems remarkably inner looking, to the point of having ignored or tacitly approved US intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq.

That is definitely not true - they are quite expansionary - their hands are all over Syria and Lebanon (not to mention post-Saddam Iraq!), their proxy militia Hezbollah has become a significant regional power in its own right, they even appear now to have some connection and lines of communication with Hamas.

I agree that the prospect of them launching first use nuclear missile strikes against Israel or US interests seems remote, but a more serious concern is the possibility they would arrange for one of their regional proxies to get a hold of a small weapon and detonate it under conditions that give Iran some plausible deniability (or at least what some nutter there thinks is plausible deniability).

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I agree that the prospect of them launching first use nuclear missile strikes against Israel or US interests seems remote, but a more serious concern is the possibility they would arrange for one of their regional proxies to get a hold of a small weapon and detonate it under conditions that give Iran some plausible deniability (or at least what some nutter there thinks is plausible deniability).

wouldn't matter, the whole world would know who it was and the bombed victim, in thise case Israel, would retaliate at the master as well as the executo of the plan. Iran would go up in nuclear fire regardless of how the nuke was delivered.

[Berkut]

I agree that the prospect of them launching first use nuclear missile strikes against Israel or US interests seems remote, but a more serious concern is the possibility they would arrange for one of their regional proxies to get a hold of a small weapon and detonate it under conditions that give Iran some plausible deniability (or at least what some nutter there thinks is plausible deniability).

wouldn't matter, the whole world would know who it was and the bombed victim, in thise case Israel, would retaliate at the master as well as the executo of the plan. Iran would go up in nuclear fire regardless of how the nuke was delivered.

How would the whole world know?

Maybe it came from NK. Maybe Pakistan. Who knows with enough surety to be willing to incinerate millions in response?

[KRonn]

- It's true that the inner workings of the Iranian government are puzzling, but 30 years of experience with the 'Islamic Republic' show no evidence whatsoever of a taste for big foreign military adventures. Rethoric can be thunderous, and some money and material support seem to have been sent abroad, but comparations with Wilhelmine Germany or the French revolutionaries seem quite misplaced. Actually the regime seems remarkably inner looking, to the point of having ignored or tacitly approved US intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq.

That is definitely not true - they are quite expansionary - their hands are all over Syria and Lebanon (not to mention post-Saddam Iraq!), their proxy militia Hezbollah has become a significant regional power in its own right, they even appear now to have some connection and lines of communication with Hamas.

I agree that the prospect of them launching first use nuclear missile strikes against Israel or US interests seems remote, but a more serious concern is the possibility they would arrange for one of their regional proxies to get a hold of a small weapon and detonate it under conditions that give Iran some plausible deniability (or at least what some nutter there thinks is plausible deniability).

What he said... Iran puts fear into other regional nations, for these and other reasons over regional aspirations.

As for nukes, wouldn't it be very difficult for a nuke to be used by a proxy or third party and not be tracked down? Don't these weapons leave traces of residue, other clues, or what ever, which give some indication of where/how it might have been built?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I agree that the prospect of them launching first use nuclear missile strikes against Israel or US interests seems remote, but a more serious concern is the possibility they would arrange for one of their regional proxies to get a hold of a small weapon and detonate it under conditions that give Iran some plausible deniability (or at least what some nutter there thinks is plausible deniability).

wouldn't matter, the whole world would know who it was and the bombed victim, in thise case Israel, would retaliate at the master as well as the executo of the plan. Iran would go up in nuclear fire regardless of how the nuke was delivered.

How would the whole world know?

Maybe it came from NK. Maybe Pakistan. Who knows with enough surety to be willing to incinerate millions in response?

NK doesn't care
Pakistan's leaders want to suck pakistan dry for their own gain
Iran's leaders have said they'd like to wipe israel off the map and have the proxies to do it.

Even if it wasn't Iran, a nukes Israel is not going to wait until the end of the investigation. MAD seems like something that needs to be done immediatly, rather than two weeks later. This in order to prevent the enemy from pulling more shit.

[Siege]

I so tired of people treating the muslims like if they were children!

Why don't they do a friggin effort and try to understand the west, for once?

[The Brain]

They understand us perfectly. We have freedom and they hate us for it.

[Siege]

They understand us perfectly. We have freedom and they hate us for it.

That's weak.
The islamotards are perfectly happy and free in a regime that enforces their ideals for a perfect islamic world.

[Neil]

I so tired of people treating the muslims like if they were children!

Why don't they do a friggin effort and try to understand the west, for once?

It wasn't Muslims that attacked the USS Liberty.

[The Brain]

They understand us perfectly. We have freedom and they hate us for it.

That's weak.
The islamotards are perfectly happy and free in a regime that enforces their ideals for a perfect islamic world.

But we are not. Hence the hate.

[Valmy]

It wasn't Muslims that attacked the USS Liberty.

It wasn't Muslims either who shot down all those Canadian Helicopters either.  USA!  USA!

Don't worry if the Israelis ever fight on our side in a war we will frag plenty of them in revenge.

[Neil]

It wasn't Muslims that attacked the USS Liberty.

It wasn't Muslims either who shot down all those Canadian Helicopters either.  USA!  USA!

Canadian helicopters have been shot down?  I don't even think they can get them off the ground anymore.

[Berkut]

I agree that the prospect of them launching first use nuclear missile strikes against Israel or US interests seems remote, but a more serious concern is the possibility they would arrange for one of their regional proxies to get a hold of a small weapon and detonate it under conditions that give Iran some plausible deniability (or at least what some nutter there thinks is plausible deniability).

wouldn't matter, the whole world would know who it was and the bombed victim, in thise case Israel, would retaliate at the master as well as the executo of the plan. Iran would go up in nuclear fire regardless of how the nuke was delivered.

How would the whole world know?

Maybe it came from NK. Maybe Pakistan. Who knows with enough surety to be willing to incinerate millions in response?

NK doesn't care
Pakistan's leaders want to suck pakistan dry for their own gain
Iran's leaders have said they'd like to wipe israel off the map and have the proxies to do it.

Even if it wasn't Iran, a nukes Israel is not going to wait until the end of the investigation. MAD seems like something that needs to be done immediatly, rather than two weeks later. This in order to prevent the enemy from pulling more shit.

So you are saying that if a nuke goes off anywhere, Israel is going to nuke Iran, even if they have no idea if the nuke actually came from Iran?

And this is the basis of your confidence in letting Iran have nukes?

Sounds like a great deal for some country that doesn't like Iran.

[Neil]

I think I'll nuke Israel.  That way, the Israelis will take out Iran, and the look on Siegebreaker's face would be worth the expense.